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Atlante v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 16th Aug, 00:00 BST, Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Miguel Ernesto Herrera Aguirre's Atlante side will have home backing in the Liga MX on Sunday morning, as Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich's Toluca travel to the Estadio Azteca. Statistics power the algorithmic predictions below for all the markets, and changing between them shows bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and unique league tables. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Click on the tabs below to find out more.

Best Tip: Toluca to win

No team in Liga MX wants to be beaten in front of their home fans, but the stats below suggest that could be Atlante's fate as they go head-to-head with Toluca at Estadio Azteca on Sunday morning. The bookmakers agree, each suggesting an away win is the most likely outcome at odds of 1.51, and so does our predictive algorithm. Our algorithm suggests the away win in the win / draw / win market has a 62% probability, easily making it the best bet here.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 66% chance of Toluca coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Atlante 15%	6/1 9%	-
Draw 19%	3/1 3%	-
Toluca 66%	5/12 3%	-
Toluca 2-0 10%	7/1 7%	-
Toluca 2-1 10%	7/1	-
Toluca 1-0 10%	7/1 13%	-
Draw 1-1 9%	7/1 7%	-
Toluca 3-0 8%	10/1 8%	-
Toluca 3-1 7%	10/1 8%	-
Draw 2-2 5%	14/1 12%	-
Draw 0-0 4%	14/1 25%	-
Toluca 4-0 4%	18/1	-
Atlante 2-1 4%	20/1 12%	-
Atlante 1-0 4%	20/1 27%	-
Toluca 4-1 4%	20/1 9%	-
Toluca 3-2 3%	20/1	-
Atlante 2-0 2%	40/1 17%	-
Toluca 4-2 2%	33/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 61%	8/13 8%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 39%	5/4 10%	-
Home 1st Goal 39%	15/8 5%	-
Away 1st Goal 58%	2/5 4%	-
No 1st Goal 3%	14/1 25%	-
BTTS - Yes 54%	3/4 3%	-
BTTS - No 46%	1/1 3%	-
BTTS - Home Win 8%	11/1 10%	-
BTTS - Draw 15%	4/1	-
BTTS - Away Win 31%	2/1 9%	-
Home/draw 34%	13/8 5%	-
Away/draw 85%	1/10 1%	-
Home/away 81%	2/9	-
Over 1.5 Goals 82%	2/11 3%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 18%	7/2 13%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 38%	6/4 17%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 62%	1/2 10%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 21%	10/3 18%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 79%	1/5 4%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 10%	8/1 9%	-
Under 5.5 Goals 90%	1/14 1%	-
Over 0.5 Goals 96%	1/33 1%	-
Under 0.5 Goals 4%	14/1 25%	-
Home DNB 28%	9/2 4%	-
Away DNB 79%	1/7 2%	-
Atlante win to nil 7%	12/1 10%	-
Toluca win to nil 35%	13/8	-
Atlante / Atlante 8%	10/1 5%	-
Atlante / Toluca 4%	18/1 10%	-
Atlante / Draw 5%	16/1	-
Draw / Atlante 6%	14/1 18%	-
Draw / Toluca 19%	10/3	-
Draw / Draw 12%	6/1 8%	-
Toluca / Atlante 2%	40/1	-
Toluca / Toluca 38%	6/5 6%	-
Toluca / Draw 6%	14/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

/ 0

Conceded

/ 0

Clean sheets

/ 0

Failed to score

/ 0

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

/ 0

Conceded

/ 0

Clean sheets

/ 0

Failed to score

/ 0

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

/ 0

Conceded

/ 0

Clean sheets

/ 0

Failed to score

/ 0

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

/ 0

Conceded

/ 0

Clean sheets

/ 0

Failed to score

/ 0

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win

Goal Statistics

A PG of 2.2 is fairly strong for Toluca in their meeting with Atlante, as is their run of scoring 1 goal or more in 18 consecutive Liga MX outings.

	Atlante 10th	Toluca 3rd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	0.9 goals	2.2 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 39% 1 37% 2 17% 3 4+ There is a 76% probability of Atlante scoring 1 goal or less	0 11% 1 24% 2 27% 3 20% 4+ 18% There is a 65% probability that Toluca will score 2 or more goals in this match

	20 home / away league games

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2026/2027 season

TOL

better

view stats

Games scored	3		3
Failed to score	0		0
Scored first	2		3
Goals scored	5		6
Avg. goals scored	1.7		2
Avg. shots per game	9		14
Avg. shots per goal	5		7
Conversion rate for	19		14
Avg. XG for	1.1		1.8
KickOff rating		+4%

TOL

47%

better

view stats

Games conceded	3		2
Clean sheets	0		1
Conceded first	1		0
Goals conceded	5		3
Avg. goals conceded	1.7		1
Avg. shots/game conceded	12		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		8
Conversion rate against	14%		13%
Avg. XG against	2.1		1
KickOff rating		+47%

Atlante v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Atlante Liga MX squad statistics 2026/2027

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
3	2	2	1
Óscar Jiménez	E Puga	J Julio	W Portales

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Óscar Jiménez GLK	3			-
L Sánchez DEF	3			-
W Clar DEF	3			-
W Portales DEF	3		1	1 -
E Tercero DEF	3			-
N Carrera DEF	3			1 -
M Figueira MID	3			-
J Julio MID	3	1	2	-
E Puga MID	3	2		-
L. Mejía Soto MID	3			-
J González FWD	3			-
L. Puente Prado FWD	3	1		-
L Calzadilla FWD	3	1	1	1 -
A Díaz DEF	2			-
E. Jiménez Sánchez FWD	2			1 -
A. Padilla Román DEF	1			-
J Rosa MID	1			-
J Cabezas FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
2	5	2	1
E Puga	L Calzadilla	J Julio	W Portales

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
E Puga MID	2	2
J Julio MID	1	2	2	1
L. Puente Prado FWD	1	4		1
L Calzadilla FWD	1	5	1
W Clar DEF		1
W Portales DEF			1	1
E. Jiménez Sánchez FWD				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
83	11	25
M Figueira	L Sánchez	L Sánchez

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
M Figueira MID	83	4	12
L Sánchez DEF	81	11	25
N Carrera DEF	79	7	8
E Puga MID	76	1	7
Óscar Jiménez GLK	75		1
W Portales DEF	75	10	11
E Tercero DEF	73	8	15
L Calzadilla FWD	60	6	18
J Julio MID	55	7	14
L. Puente Prado FWD	48	3	16
E. Jiménez Sánchez FWD	38	5	5
W Clar DEF	31	2	2
L. Mejía Soto MID	18	5	7
A Díaz DEF	13	2	3
J González FWD	12		2
J Rosa MID	5		3
J Cabezas FWD	4		2
A. Padilla Román DEF	3	1	1

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2026/2027

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
3	1	2	2
J Uriarte	J Gallardo	Helinho	F Romero

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
J Gallardo DEF	3	1	1	1 -
S Simón DEF	3			-
V Guzmán MID	3			-
J Uriarte MID	3			-
F Romero MID	3			2 -
Helinho FWD	3		2	1 -
J Price FWD	3	1		-
A Vega FWD	3	1		-
L García GLK	2			-
B Méndez DEF	2			-
F Pereira DEF	2			-
E López DEF	2	1		-
Érick Gutiérrez MID	2			-
F Arce MID	2			-
N Castro MID	2			-
H González GLK	1			-
Luan DEF	1			-
A Briseño DEF	1			-
D Barbosa DEF	1			-
B García DEF	1			-
I López FWD	1	1	1	-
P Pérez FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
1	4	2	4
J Gallardo	Helinho	Helinho	Helinho

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
J Gallardo DEF	1	2	1	1
J Price FWD	1	4		2
A Vega FWD	1	4
E López DEF	1	1
I López FWD	1	1	1	1
S Simón DEF				1
J Uriarte MID		2
F Romero MID				1
Helinho FWD		4	2	4
Érick Gutiérrez MID		1
F Arce MID				1
N Castro MID		2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
179	7	17
F Romero	D Barbosa	F Pereira

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Romero MID	179	6	9
F Pereira DEF	167	2	17
E López DEF	151	5	6
A Vega FWD	142	1	16
J Gallardo DEF	134	4	10
S Simón DEF	120	6	10
V Guzmán MID	100		3
B Méndez DEF	99	1	4
J Uriarte MID	95	1	5
Helinho FWD	92	1	14
N Castro MID	78	1	4
J Price FWD	77	1	12
Érick Gutiérrez MID	73	4	5
L García GLK	68
Luan DEF	64
F Arce MID	63	3	5
B García DEF	49	1	2
H González GLK	36
D Barbosa DEF	36	7	7
P Pérez FWD	20	1	1
I López FWD	18		1
A Briseño DEF	2	1	1