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Toluca v Pachuca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mon 4th May, 02:15 BST, Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo

Monday morning at the Estadio Nemesio Díez, and it’s a Liga MX showdown between Toluca and Pachuca. Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich and Esteban Andrés Solari Poggio will be doing all they can to guide their side to victory. Liga MX stats are the foundation of the predictions you'll find below, with head to head (H2H) records included too. There's so much to explore, with infographics and odds from leading bookmakers available for seventeen major betting markets via the tabs.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

Our predictive algorithm suggests there's a 78% chance of Toluca and Pachuca serving up at least 2 goals in this Liga MX tie. Recent form statistics and head-to-head (H2H) records are factored into that calculation , and the bookies are predicting the same. This over 1.5 goals tip is available at 1.17.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Toluca are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 55% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.79.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Toluca 55%	79/100	3/4
Draw 24%	29/10	13/5
Pachuca 22%	3/1	27/10
Draw 1-1 11%	13/2	11/2
Toluca 1-0 11%	8/1	13/2
Toluca 2-1 10%	15/2	13/2
Toluca 2-0 10%	17/2	15/2
Pachuca 1-0 6%	14/1	10/1
Draw 0-0 6%	14/1	11/1
Toluca 3-1 6%	12/1	11/1
Pachuca 2-1 6%	12/1	10/1
Toluca 3-0 6%	14/1	12/1
Draw 2-2 5%	12/1	10/1
Pachuca 2-0 3%	22/1	16/1
Toluca 3-2 3%	20/1	16/1
Toluca 4-1 3%	25/1	18/1
Toluca 4-0 2%	28/1	20/1
Pachuca 3-1 2%	28/1	18/1
Over 2.5 Goals 53%	4/6	8/13
Under 2.5 Goals 47%	23/20	21/20
Home 1st Goal 54%	8/13	3/5
Away 1st Goal 42%	11/8	6/4
No 1st Goal 4%	14/1	11/1
BTTS - Yes 53%	8/13	13/20
BTTS - No 47%	6/5	23/20
BTTS - Home Win 25%	12/5	23/10
BTTS - Draw 17%	7/2	7/2
BTTS - Away Win 11%	6/1	5/1
Home/draw 78%	2/9	1/4
Away/draw 45%	10/11	19/20
Home/away 77%	1/4	1/4
Over 1.5 Goals 77%	1/5	2/11
Under 1.5 Goals 23%	10/3	29/10
Over 3.5 Goals 30%	13/8	8/5
Under 3.5 Goals 70%	4/9	2/5
Over 4.5 Goals 15%	4/1	17/5
Under 4.5 Goals 85%	1/6	2/13
Over 5.5 Goals 6%	9/1	7/1
Under 5.5 Goals 94%	1/16	1/25
Over 0.5 Goals 94%	1/33	1/66
Under 0.5 Goals 6%	14/1	10/1
Home DNB 71%	4/11	4/11
Away DNB 38%	2/1	15/8
Toluca win to nil 30%	5/2	-
Pachuca win to nil 11%	7/1	-
Toluca / Toluca 29%	15/8	17/10
Toluca / Pachuca 3%	28/1	25/1
Toluca / Draw 6%	12/1	11/1
Draw / Toluca 16%	4/1	4/1
Draw / Pachuca 9%	8/1	15/2
Draw / Draw 14%	5/1	19/4
Pachuca / Toluca 4%	20/1	16/1
Pachuca / Pachuca 13%	11/2	19/4
Pachuca / Draw 6%	14/1	11/1

Win / draw / win form

Toluca have not lost in 18 consecutive home league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Toluca	4 - 1	Leon
Toluca	1 - 1	A. San Luis
Toluca	1 - 1	Atlas
Toluca	3 - 1	Juarez
Toluca	2 - 0	Guadalajara
Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
Toluca	2 - 0	America
Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
Toluca	4 - 0	Queretaro
Toluca	3 - 1	Mazatlan
Toluca	6 - 2	Monterrey
Toluca	3 - 1	Puebla
Toluca	1 - 1	Pumas UNAM
Toluca	3 - 4	Tigres
Toluca	3 - 1	Necaxa

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Toluca	4 - 1	Leon
A	Toluca	3 - 4	Mazatlan
A	Toluca	1 - 2	America
H	Toluca	1 - 1	A. San Luis
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Queretaro
A	Toluca	1 - 1	Pachuca
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Atlas
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Juarez
A	Toluca	3 - 2	Pumas UNAM
H	Toluca	2 - 0	Guadalajara
A	Toluca	3 - 0	Necaxa
H	Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Tijuana	3 - 1	Pachuca
Monterrey	1 - 3	Pachuca
Cruz Azul	1 - 2	Pachuca
A. San Luis	1 - 1	Pachuca
Mazatlan	1 - 0	Pachuca
Tigres	1 - 2	Pachuca
Queretaro	0 - 0	Pachuca
Guadalajara	2 - 0	Pachuca
Juarez	2 - 1	Pachuca
S. Laguna	1 - 0	Pachuca
Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
Juarez	2 - 2	Pachuca
Necaxa	0 - 1	Pachuca
Puebla	2 - 2	Pachuca
America	2 - 0	Pachuca
Leon	1 - 1	Pachuca
Atlas	0 - 3	Pachuca
Pumas UNAM	2 - 3	Pachuca
America	2 - 0	Pachuca
Monterrey	1 - 2	Pachuca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Pachuca	0 - 2	Pumas UNAM
A	Pachuca	1 - 3	Tijuana
A	Pachuca	3 - 1	Monterrey
H	Pachuca	4 - 2	S. Laguna
A	Pachuca	2 - 1	Cruz Azul
H	Pachuca	1 - 1	Toluca
A	Pachuca	1 - 1	A. San Luis
H	Pachuca	2 - 1	Puebla
H	Pachuca	2 - 1	Necaxa
A	Pachuca	0 - 1	Mazatlan
A	Pachuca	2 - 1	Tigres
H	Pachuca	3 - 1	Atlas
H	Pachuca	2 - 0	Juarez
A	Pachuca	0 - 0	Queretaro
H	Pachuca	0 - 0	America
H	Pachuca	2 - 1	Leon
A	Pachuca	0 - 2	Guadalajara
A	Pachuca	1 - 2	Juarez
H	Pachuca	3 - 1	Pumas UNAM
A	Pachuca	0 - 1	S. Laguna

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Toluca have not lost to Pachuca in 7 consecutive league meetings

Toluca

Pachuca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 9

Clean sheets

2 / 9

TOL

PAC

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Toluca	3 - 2
Toluca	5 - 0
	1 - 5	Pachuca
	1 - 4	Pachuca
	0 - 3	Pachuca
	0 - 2	Pachuca
Toluca	2 - 0
Toluca	2 - 1

Pachuca

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 8

Clean sheets

1 / 8

TOL

PAC

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Pachuca
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	2 - 3	Toluca
	1 - 2	Toluca
Pachuca	3 - 1
	1 - 2	Toluca
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Pachuca	3 - 2

Goal Statistics

Toluca's fans will be hoping for goals on Monday morning, not least because Pachuca have conceded in each of their last 12 Liga MX games. A PG of 1.8 for A. Mohamed Matijevich's side suggests that run should continue.

	Toluca 5th	Pachuca 9th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.8 goals	1.0 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 17% 1 30% 2 27% 3 16% 4+ 10% There is a 83% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals	0 36% 1 37% 2 19% 3 4+ There is a 73% probability that Pachuca will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+12 Toluca have scored 12% more goals at home than predicted	-6 Pachuca’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	2.4 average goals scored	1.3 average goals scored
	1.1 conceded	1.4 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

22%

better

TOL

PAC

view stats

Games scored	31		25
Failed to score	9		11
Scored first	22		13
Goals scored	78		50
Avg. goals scored	2		1.4
Avg. shots per game	13		11
Avg. shots per goal	7		8
Conversion rate for	15		13
Avg. XG for	1.8		1.2
KickOff rating		+22%

17%

better

TOL

PAC

view stats

Games conceded	27		29
Clean sheets	13		7
Conceded first	13		21
Goals conceded	40		43
Avg. goals conceded	1		1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded	8		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		8
Conversion rate against	12%		13%
Avg. XG against	1		1.1
KickOff rating		+17%

Toluca v Pachuca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
31	21	12	13
F Romero	Paulinho	A Vega	J Gallardo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
N Castro MID	36	5	8	2 -
J Uriarte MID	35	7	5	2 -
F Romero MID	35	1	2	4 -
F Pereira DEF	34	3		9 -
D Barbosa DEF	34	1	1	8 -
J Gallardo DEF	33	5	5	13 -
Paulinho FWD	33	21	4	5 -
M Ruíz MID	31	3	4	9 1
E López DEF	29	1		2 -
S Simón DEF	26		3	4 -
B Méndez DEF	26	1		3 1
H González GLK	23			2 -
A Vega FWD	22	4	12	4 -
Helinho FWD	22	9	6	4 1
A Briseño DEF	19	3	1	1 1
L García GLK	18			2 -
F Arce MID	15	1	1	1 1
P Pérez FWD	15		2	1 -
O. Virgen FWD	13	1	1	1 -
J Price MID	12	2	3	1 -
S Córdova MID	12	1	2	1 -
M Isaís DEF	11			1 -
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	10	1		1 -
Luan DEF	8			2 -
V Camarena MID	3			-
A Bermúdez FWD	3			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
21	43	12	11
Paulinho	Paulinho	A Vega	M Ruíz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	21	43	4	7
Helinho FWD	9	17	6	11
J Uriarte MID	7	17	5	10
N Castro MID	5	31	8	8
J Gallardo DEF	5	13	5	9
A Vega FWD	4	16	12	10
F Pereira DEF	3	9		4
M Ruíz MID	3	15	4	11
A Briseño DEF	3	6	1	1
J Price MID	2	10	3	2
F Romero MID	1	3	2	2
D Barbosa DEF	1	6	1	6
E López DEF	1	4		1
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
F Arce MID	1	5	1	1
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
S Córdova MID	1	5	2	2
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	1	4		1
S Simón DEF		1	3	7
P Pérez FWD		4	2	3
M Isaís DEF		2
Luan DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1980	84	211
F Pereira	D Barbosa	M Ruíz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1980	38	151
F Romero MID	1829	69	114
M Ruíz MID	1609	76	211
J Gallardo DEF	1359	59	146
N Castro MID	1344	37	113
E López DEF	1183	29	56
J Uriarte MID	1049	25	72
B Méndez DEF	1036	27	69
S Simón DEF	877	35	75
D Barbosa DEF	845	84	139
A Vega FWD	729	20	112
H González GLK	661	2	12
A Briseño DEF	541	12	70
Helinho FWD	520	15	82
L García GLK	504		6
Paulinho FWD	410	18	79
P Pérez FWD	381	18	54
F Arce MID	371	28	48
M Isaís DEF	262	10	31
Luan DEF	255	4	20
J Price MID	175	5	29
S Córdova MID	153	5	20
V Camarena MID	83	1	1
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	45	1	12
O. Virgen FWD	43	3	7
A Bermúdez FWD	29	6	7

Pachuca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
35	8	7	10
C Moreno	Kenedy	V Guzmán	E Bauermann

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
C Moreno GLK	35			8 1
E Bauermann DEF	34			9 1
B García DEF	33	1	4	2
S Barreto DEF	33	1	1	7 1
V Guzmán MID	33	5	7	2 2
L Quiñones FWD	33	2		6 1
A Gutiérrez MID	32	3	2	5 1
Kenedy FWD	30	8	2	1 -
O Idrissi FWD	30	5	3	4 1
A Figueroa FWD	26	2	3	2 -
C. Sánchez Nava DEF	24	1		5 1
P Reyna MID	21			8 -
E Valencia FWD	18	6	1	2 1
S Rondón FWD	17	5		3 1
E Montiel MID	16	2	4	1 -
C Rivera MID	16	1	2	3 1
J Berlanga DEF	10			4 -
W Carvalho MID	9			-
I Luna MID	6			-
R Aburto DEF	5			-
A Mozo DEF	3			1 -
J Téllez GLK	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	21	7	9
Kenedy	Kenedy	V Guzmán	O Idrissi

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Kenedy FWD	8	21	2	8
E Valencia FWD	6	18	1
V Guzmán MID	5	15	7	8
O Idrissi FWD	5	11	3	9
S Rondón FWD	5	13
A Gutiérrez MID	3	12	2	4
L Quiñones FWD	2	11		2
A Figueroa FWD	2	8	3	3
E Montiel MID	2	10	4	2
B García DEF	1	2	4	4
S Barreto DEF	1	3	1
C. Sánchez Nava DEF	1	2		1
C Rivera MID	1	1	2	3
C Moreno GLK				1
E Bauermann DEF		2
P Reyna MID		2
J Berlanga DEF		1
I Luna MID				1
R Aburto DEF				1
A Mozo DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1538	66	147
S Barreto	L Quiñones	L Quiñones

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Barreto DEF	1538	44	146
E Bauermann DEF	1415	48	123
B García DEF	1329	34	81
C Moreno GLK	1059	3	21
L Quiñones FWD	815	66	147
A Gutiérrez MID	799	33	79
V Guzmán MID	777	23	73
O Idrissi FWD	763	31	102
C Rivera MID	689	42	66
E Montiel MID	631	16	42
C. Sánchez Nava DEF	610	42	99
Kenedy FWD	586	25	100
A Figueroa FWD	436	26	83
P Reyna MID	393	29	42
J Berlanga DEF	341	10	14
S Rondón FWD	233	7	62
E Valencia FWD	219	10	50
W Carvalho MID	201	4	9
I Luna MID	88	10	15
A Mozo DEF	77	8	9
R Aburto DEF	69	8	9
J Téllez GLK	29