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FC Porto v Casa Pia : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Estádio do Dragão, Porto

João Jorge Gândara Mendes Pereira guides his Casa Pia charges to the Estádio do Dragão in the Liga NOS on Sunday evening, with Francesco Baldini's FC Porto their rivals. Our aim is to give you all the tools you need to make a smart, well-informed bet on this tie, so we've sifted through our 20+ year database and dug out the stats that matter the most. Head to head (H2H) and recent form are included, and it all goes into our algorithmic predictions. The best odds are there to make sure you get the best return.

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FC Porto's next match is v S. Lisbon at 20:30 on Saturday 30th August
Casa Pia's next match is v Nacional at 15:30 on Saturday 30th August
The last Portuguese Liga NOS meeting between Porto and Casa Pia was on Sunday 24th August 2025
Portuguese Liga NOS
August 24th 2025
Porto 4
0 Casa Pia
 
B. Sainz Eguskiza 20'
W. Gomes Carvalho Santos 25'
N. Pérez 40'
B. Sainz Eguskiza 67'
 
PTO
Shots On
7
Shots Off
8
4
Corners
7
2
Possession
65%
35%
Fouls
11
8
Yellow/red cards
3/0
1/0
 
PortoCasa Pia
 
D. Meireles Costa
J. Bednarek (D. Prpić 74')
Z. Sanusi (F. Moura 46')
V. Froholdt (S. Antunes Eustáquio 58')
G. Veiga Novas
W. Gomes Carvalho Santosfootball icon (R. Mora Carvalho 58')
B. Sainz Eguskizafootball iconfootball icon
N. Pérezfootball icon
A. Costa (J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas 74')
A. Varela
L. de Jong
P. Sequeira Mejías
D. Tchamba Bangou
J. Goulart Silva
J. da Rocha Fonte
(A. Geraldes de Barros 46') F. Benaissa-Yahia
(T. Fontoura Fonseca Morais 58') O. Osundina
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
I. Mohamed
(S. Pérez Cardona 75') R. Nhaga
(M. Ferreira de Sousa 75') J. Livolant
(M. Svensson Río 46') C. Dias Moreira

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Liga NOS Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Porto to win

As the Porto players prepare themselves for this clash, the bookies have predicted a win for them. The odds and our pre-match stats below point in that direction too, as does the historical head-to-head (H2H) record we take advantage of in our predictive algorithms. The Estádio do Dragão has rarely been a successful away day for Casa Pia in the past, and we we'd back more of the same on Sunday evening. A win / draw / win home win is our tip.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Porto are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 78% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.22.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Porto
78%
1/51/1000
Draw
15%
5/1750/1
Casa Pia
7%
14/1750/1
Porto 2-0
15%
9/217/4
Porto 1-0
12%
11/213/2
Porto 3-0
12%
11/229/20
Porto 2-1
8%
9/111/1
Porto 4-0
7%
10/12/11
Draw 1-1
7%
11/114/1
Porto 3-1
7%
11/19/1
Draw 0-0
5%
12/115/2
Porto 4-1
4%
18/114/1
Porto 5-0
3%
20/119/4
Casa Pia 1-0
3%
22/116/1
Draw 2-2
2%
33/133/1
Casa Pia 2-1
2%
33/145/1
Porto 5-1
2%
33/145/1
Porto 3-2
2%
40/145/1
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
7/102/15
Under 2.5 Goals
43%
11/1017/4
Home 1st Goal
65%
1/41/4
Away 1st Goal
31%
10/317/4
No 1st Goal
4%
12/115/2
BTTS - Yes
39%
6/412/1
BTTS - No
61%
1/21/50
BTTS - Home Win
27%
5/212/1
BTTS - Draw
10%
15/2100/1
BTTS - Away Win
3%
25/170/1
Home/draw
93%
1/331/1000
Away/draw
22%
10/3100/1
Home/away
85%
1/81/1000
Over 1.5 Goals
80%
2/91/14
Under 1.5 Goals
20%
3/113/2
Over 3.5 Goals
35%
7/41/2
Under 3.5 Goals
65%
2/56/4
Over 4.5 Goals
18%
4/110/3
Under 4.5 Goals
82%
1/61/5
Over 5.5 Goals
8%
10/122/1
Under 5.5 Goals
92%
1/201/1000
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1/331/18
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
14/115/2
Home DNB
89%
1/201/1000
Away DNB
17%
10/170/1
Porto win to nil
52%
8/11-
Casa Pia win to nil
4%
18/1-
Porto / Porto
47%
4/61/1000
Porto / Casa Pia
1%
50/180/1
Porto / Draw
4%
20/180/1
Draw / Porto
22%
11/41/50
Draw / Casa Pia
4%
22/11/50
Draw / Draw
10%
15/21/50
Casa Pia / Porto
4%
22/11/50
Casa Pia / Casa Pia
4%
25/11/50
Casa Pia / Draw
3%
25/11/50
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Win / draw / win Liga NOS table
Won
Draw
Lost
Porto
Casa Pia
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
S. Lisbon3300119 
Feb 8
Aug 30
l
 
0-2A
Jan 18
2
Porto330099 
-
-
Feb 1
l
 
4-0A
3
Moreirense330049 
Mar 15
Oct 25
Mar 1
Sep 27
4
Braga321067 
Nov 2
Mar 22
Mar 15
Oct 25
5
Famalicao321047 
Apr 3
Nov 9
Sep 20
Feb 22
6
Benfica220046 
Oct 4
Mar 8
Apr 3
Nov 9
7
Gil Vicente311104 
Jan 25
w
 
0-2F
Dec 14
Apr 25
8
Arouca3111-44 
Mar 1
Sep 27
Feb 15
Sep 13
9
V. Guimaraes3102-43 
w
 
3-0F
Jan 18
Dec 28
May 9
10
Casa Pia3102-43 
w
 
4-0F
Feb 1
-
-
11
Rio Ave202002 
Feb 22
Sep 20
May 16
Jan 4
12
Estrela Amadora3021-12 
Dec 14
Apr 25
Nov 2
Mar 22
13
Estoril2011-11 
Nov 30
Apr 11
Oct 4
Mar 8
14
AVS3012-41 
Dec 28
May 9
Jan 25
w
 
0-2F
15
Alverca3012-41 
May 2
Dec 21
Nov 30
Apr 11
16
Nacional3012-51 
Sep 13
Feb 15
Aug 30
Feb 8
17
Santa Clara2002-40 
May 16
Jan 4
Apr 18
Dec 7
18
Tondela3003-70 
Apr 18
Dec 7
May 2
Dec 21
Win / draw / win form
Porto 2ND
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
46
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
15
D
4
L
1
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Porto3 - 0V. Guimaraes
Porto3 - 0Nacional
Porto3 - 1Moreirense
Porto2 - 1Famalicao
Porto1 - 4Benfica
Porto2 - 0AVS
Porto1 - 1V. Guimaraes
Porto1 - 1S. Lisbon
Porto1 - 1Santa Clara
Porto4 - 0Boavista
Porto2 - 0Estrela Amadora
Porto2 - 0Casa Pia
Porto4 - 0Estoril
Porto2 - 1Braga
Porto4 - 0Arouca
Porto2 - 1Sporting Farense
Porto2 - 0Rio Ave
Porto3 - 0Gil Vicente
Porto2 - 1Boavista
Porto2 - 2S. Lisbon
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
11
D
4
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
APorto2 - 0Gil Vicente
HPorto3 - 0V. Guimaraes
HPorto3 - 0Nacional
APorto2 - 1Boavista
HPorto3 - 1Moreirense
APorto0 - 2Estrela Amadora
HPorto2 - 1Famalicao
APorto1 - 0Casa Pia
HPorto1 - 4Benfica
APorto2 - 1Estoril
HPorto2 - 0AVS
APorto0 - 1Braga
APorto2 - 0Arouca
HPorto1 - 1V. Guimaraes
APorto1 - 0Sporting Farense
HPorto1 - 1S. Lisbon
APorto2 - 2Rio Ave
HPorto1 - 1Santa Clara
APorto1 - 3Gil Vicente
APorto0 - 2Nacional
Casa Pia 10TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
AVS0 - 2Casa Pia
Famalicao2 - 1Casa Pia
Arouca0 - 0Casa Pia
AVS1 - 1Casa Pia
Sporting Farense0 - 0Casa Pia
Nacional3 - 1Casa Pia
V. Guimaraes1 - 0Casa Pia
Moreirense3 - 2Casa Pia
Santa Clara2 - 1Casa Pia
Boavista2 - 3Casa Pia
Braga1 - 2Casa Pia
Estoril0 - 2Casa Pia
Porto2 - 0Casa Pia
Rio Ave2 - 2Casa Pia
S. Lisbon2 - 0Casa Pia
Gil Vicente1 - 1Casa Pia
Estrela Amadora0 - 1Casa Pia
Benfica3 - 0Casa Pia
Famalicao1 - 2Casa Pia
Braga4 - 3Casa Pia
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
7
D
4
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ACasa Pia2 - 0AVS
HCasa Pia0 - 2S. Lisbon
ACasa Pia1 - 2Famalicao
HCasa Pia2 - 1Braga
ACasa Pia0 - 0Arouca
HCasa Pia1 - 3Estoril
ACasa Pia1 - 1AVS
HCasa Pia0 - 1Porto
ACasa Pia0 - 0Sporting Farense
HCasa Pia2 - 1Rio Ave
ACasa Pia1 - 3Nacional
HCasa Pia1 - 3S. Lisbon
ACasa Pia0 - 1V. Guimaraes
HCasa Pia1 - 0Gil Vicente
ACasa Pia2 - 3Moreirense
HCasa Pia1 - 0Estrela Amadora
ACasa Pia1 - 2Santa Clara
HCasa Pia3 - 1Benfica
ACasa Pia3 - 2Boavista
HCasa Pia1 - 1Famalicao
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Porto have beaten Casa Pia in 5 consecutive league meetings
6
Porto have not lost to Casa Pia in 6 consecutive league meetings
League games at Porto since 2023
Porto
Casa Pia
Goals: Scored
7
2
Games: Scored
3 / 3
2 / 3
Clean sheets
1 / 3
0 / 3
PTO
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Porto
Porto2 - 0
Porto3 - 1
Porto2 - 1
League games at Casa Pia since 2023
Casa Pia
Porto
Goals: Scored
1
3
Games: Scored
1 / 3
2 / 3
Clean sheets
1 / 3
2 / 3
PTO
2
D
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Casa Pia
0 - 1Porto
1 - 2Porto
Draw0 - 0Draw
Goal Statistics

FC Porto's forwards have been excellent of late, finding the net twice or more in 5 consecutive Liga NOS outings. A PG of 2.4 suggests that run should continue on Sunday evening.

With a PG of just 0.6, Casa Pia look set to struggle here. Add in the fact that FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive Liga NOS games, and it could be a long evening for J. Gândara Mendes Pereira's men.

Porto 2nd Casa Pia 10th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.4
goals
0.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4+
22%
There is a 69% probability that Porto will score 2 or more goals in this match
0
57%
1
32%
2
3
4+
There is a 57% probability that Casa Pia will fail to score
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+7
Porto’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+12
Casa Pia have scored 12% more goals when away than predicted
2.3
average goals scored
1.2
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga NOS - 2025/2025 season
Porto
PG (predicted goals)
Casa Pia
2.4
0.6
Attack rating
51%
better
PTO
view stats
Games scored2
1
Failed to score0
1
Scored first2
1
Goals scored5
2
Avg. goals scored2.5
1
Avg. shots per game14
7
Avg. shots per goal5
7
Conversion rate for19
15
Avg. XG for1.9
0.9
KickOff rating
+51%
Defence rating
56%
better
PTO
view stats
Games conceded0
1
Clean sheets2
1
Conceded first0
1
Goals conceded0
2
Avg. goals conceded0
1
Avg. shots/game conceded8
14
Avg. shots/goal conceded0
14
Conversion rate against0%
7%
Avg. XG against0.9
2.1
KickOff rating
+56%

Porto v Casa Pia Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Porto Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
3232
D CostaB SainzA BaioW. Gomes Carvalho Santos
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Costa GLK3
1
-
A Baio DEF33
-
N Pérez DEF31
-
J Bednarek DEF3
1
-
Zaidu  DEF31
-
V. Froholdt MID311
1
-
A Varela MID3
1
-
G Veiga MID31
1
-
W. Gomes Carvalho Santos FWD31
2
-
L Jong FWD3
-
B Sainz FWD321
1
-
Subs
C Ramos GLK
-
J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas DEF2
-
D. Prpić DEF2
-
F Moura DEF1
-
S Eustaquio MID3
-
V Sousa MID
-
R. Mora Carvalho MID2
-
D Gül FWD
-
B. Caicedo Ramos FWD
-
Casa Pia Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
3111
P SequeiraD Tchamba J LivolantJ Goulart
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
P Sequeira GLK3
-
J Goulart DEF3
1
-
J Fonte DEF3
-
D Tchamba  DEF31
1
-
G Larrazabal MID3
1
-
I Mohamed MID2
1
-
R. Nhaga MID2
1
-
F. Benaissa-Yahia MID3
-
J Livolant FWD31
1
-
O Osundina FWD31
-
Cassiano FWD3
1
-
Subs
D. Grilo Azevedo GLK
-
A Geraldes DEF3
-
K Rocha DEF
-
S Pérez MID2
1
-
R Brito MID2
1
-
M Sousa MID2
-
M Svensson FWD3
1
-
K. Prieto Machado FWD
-
T Morais FWD2
-