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Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid : La Liga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 3rd Dec, 18:00 BST, San Mamés, Bilbao

Xabier Alonso Olano is aiming for a crucial away win in the La Liga on Wednesday evening, as he takes his Real Madrid side to the San Mamés to visit Athletic Bilbao and Ernesto Valverde Tejedor. Our predictions for each betting market are based on the past 20 games for each team (at home, away or overall) with extra weighting given to top teams. All the statistics and infographics are tailored for the betting market in question. Head to head (H2H) statistics for this fixture are also given where our data allows. Odds are provided directly from from the UK's biggest bookmakers.


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Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We make over 1.5 goals our tip on this one, meaning that the sides will score 2 goals or more between them during the standard 90 mins. Both A.Bilbao and Real Madrid's current form stats suggest goals are to be expected, while their head-to-head (H2H) record is pointing in the same direction too. The bookies make it their favoured prediction in this market too, available at 1.25.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 47% chance of Real Madrid coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
A.Bilbao
28%
7/2-
Draw
25%
13/5-
Real Madrid
47%
8/11-
Draw 1-1
12%
6/1-
Real Madrid 1-0
11%
7/1-
Real Madrid 2-1
9%
15/2-
Real Madrid 2-0
8%
8/1-
A.Bilbao 1-0
8%
14/1
15%
-
A.Bilbao 2-1
7%
14/1-
Draw 0-0
7%
11/1-
Draw 2-2
5%
12/1
13%
-
Real Madrid 3-1
5%
12/1-
A.Bilbao 2-0
4%
22/1-
Real Madrid 3-0
4%
14/1-
Real Madrid 3-2
3%
22/1-
A.Bilbao 3-1
3%
33/1-
A.Bilbao 3-2
2%
40/1
21%
-
Real Madrid 4-1
2%
25/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
4/5-
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
1/1-
Home 1st Goal
44%
6/4-
Away 1st Goal
52%
4/7-
No 1st Goal
4%
11/1-
BTTS - Yes
54%
7/10-
BTTS - No
46%
21/20-
BTTS - Home Win
13%
7/1-
BTTS - Draw
18%
7/2
5%
-
BTTS - Away Win
22%
5/2-
Home/draw
53%
21/20-
Away/draw
72%
2/11-
Home/away
75%
2/7-
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
1/4-
Under 1.5 Goals
25%
3/1-
Over 3.5 Goals
29%
2/1-
Under 3.5 Goals
71%
2/5-
Over 4.5 Goals
14%
9/2-
Under 4.5 Goals
86%
1/7-
Over 5.5 Goals
6%
10/1-
Under 5.5 Goals
94%
1/20-
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1/25-
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
11/1-
Home DNB
45%
12/5-
Away DNB
65%
3/10-
A.Bilbao win to nil
14%
8/1
13%
-
Real Madrid win to nil
25%
9/4-
A.Bilbao / A.Bilbao
11%
13/2
7%
-
A.Bilbao / Real Madrid
4%
20/1-
A.Bilbao / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / A.Bilbao
9%
17/2-
Draw / Real Madrid
18%
15/4-
Draw / Draw
14%
5/1-
Real Madrid / A.Bilbao
2%
33/1-
Real Madrid / Real Madrid
30%
7/4-
Real Madrid / Draw
6%
12/1-
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Win / draw / win La Liga table

A.Bilbao have played 12 matches so far this season and are in 7th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

2 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 1 game, drawn zero and won 1. A.Bilbao have conceded 2 goals, scored 2, failed to score in 1 match and kept no clean sheets.

Home league performance

A.Bilbao have played 7 games at home, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 2 fixtures. They have scored 8 goals, conceded 6 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score 2 times in home league games.

Real Madrid lay in 1st place on 31 points in the La Liga league table having played 12 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 12 games against teams below them in the table, winning 10, drawing 1 and losing 1 game. They have scored 26 goals and kept 6 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Real Madrid have conceded 10 goals and have failed to score in 1 match.

Away league performance

Real Madrid have played 6 away games, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 1 game. They have scored an average of 2 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.2 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
A.Bilbao
Real Madrid
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Real Madrid1210111631 
Dec 3
May 24
-
-
2
Barcelona129121728 
Mar 8
Nov 22
w
 
2-1F
May 10
3
Villarreal128221426 
Apr 12
l
 
1-0A
w
 
3-1F
Jan 25
4
A.Madrid127411325 
Dec 6
Apr 19
Mar 22
l
 
5-2A
5
Real Betis12552620 
Mar 22
w
 
1-2F
Jan 4
Apr 19
6
Espanyol12534018 
Dec 22
May 13
w
 
2-0F
May 3
7
A.Bilbao12525-117 
-
-
May 24
Dec 3
8
Getafe12525-217 
l
 
0-1A
Apr 5
Mar 1
w
 
0-1F
9
Sevilla12516-116 
w
 
3-2F
Jan 25
Dec 20
May 17
10
Alaves12435015 
l
 
0-1A
May 3
Apr 22
Dec 14
11
Elche12363-115 
Feb 22
d
 
0-00-0
Mar 15
Nov 23
12
R.Vallecano12435-215 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 1
Feb 1
d
 
0-00-0
13
Celta12273-313 
May 17
Dec 14
Dec 7
Mar 8
14
R.Sociedad12345-313 
Feb 1
l
 
3-2A
Feb 15
w
 
1-2F
15
Mallorca12336-612 
w
 
2-1F
Jan 18
w
 
2-1A
Apr 5
16
Osasuna12327-411 
Apr 22
Jan 4
w
 
1-0F
Feb 22
17
Valencia12246-1010 
May 10
l
 
2-0A
w
 
4-0F
Feb 8
18
Girona12246-1310 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 15
Apr 12
Nov 30
19
Levante12237-79 
Feb 8
Nov 29
Jan 18
w
 
1-4F
20
Real Oviedo12228-138 
w
 
1-0F
Feb 15
May 13
w
 
0-3F
Win / draw / win form
A.Bilbao 7TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
12
Draw
5
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
A.Bilbao1 - 0Real Oviedo
A.Bilbao0 - 1Getafe
A.Bilbao2 - 1Mallorca
A.Bilbao1 - 1Girona
A.Bilbao0 - 1Alaves
A.Bilbao1 - 0R.Vallecano
A.Bilbao3 - 2Sevilla
A.Bilbao0 - 3Barcelona
A.Bilbao1 - 0Alaves
A.Bilbao1 - 0Las Palmas
A.Bilbao3 - 1R.Vallecano
A.Bilbao0 - 0Osasuna
A.Bilbao1 - 1Mallorca
A.Bilbao7 - 1Valladolid
A.Bilbao3 - 0Girona
A.Bilbao0 - 0Leganes
A.Bilbao2 - 0Villarreal
A.Bilbao2 - 1Real Madrid
A.Bilbao1 - 0R.Sociedad
A.Bilbao1 - 1Real Betis
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
10
D
3
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HA.Bilbao1 - 0Real Oviedo
AA.Bilbao2 - 3R.Sociedad
HA.Bilbao0 - 1Getafe
AA.Bilbao0 - 0Elche
HA.Bilbao2 - 1Mallorca
AA.Bilbao0 - 1Villarreal
HA.Bilbao1 - 1Girona
AA.Bilbao0 - 2Valencia
HA.Bilbao0 - 1Alaves
AA.Bilbao2 - 1Real Betis
HA.Bilbao1 - 0R.Vallecano
HA.Bilbao3 - 2Sevilla
HA.Bilbao0 - 3Barcelona
AA.Bilbao1 - 0Valencia
AA.Bilbao2 - 0Getafe
HA.Bilbao1 - 0Alaves
AA.Bilbao0 - 0R.Sociedad
HA.Bilbao1 - 0Las Palmas
AA.Bilbao0 - 1Real Madrid
HA.Bilbao3 - 1R.Vallecano
Real Madrid 1ST
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
38
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
12
D
3
Lost
5
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
R.Vallecano0 - 0Real Madrid
Getafe0 - 1Real Madrid
A.Madrid5 - 2Real Madrid
Levante1 - 4Real Madrid
R.Sociedad1 - 2Real Madrid
Real Oviedo0 - 3Real Madrid
Sevilla0 - 2Real Madrid
Barcelona4 - 3Real Madrid
Getafe0 - 1Real Madrid
Alaves0 - 1Real Madrid
Villarreal1 - 2Real Madrid
Real Betis2 - 1Real Madrid
Osasuna1 - 1Real Madrid
Espanyol1 - 0Real Madrid
Valladolid0 - 3Real Madrid
Valencia1 - 2Real Madrid
R.Vallecano3 - 3Real Madrid
Girona0 - 3Real Madrid
A.Bilbao2 - 1Real Madrid
Leganes0 - 3Real Madrid
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
17
D
1
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AReal Madrid0 - 0R.Vallecano
HReal Madrid4 - 0Valencia
HReal Madrid2 - 1Barcelona
AReal Madrid1 - 0Getafe
HReal Madrid3 - 1Villarreal
AReal Madrid2 - 5A.Madrid
AReal Madrid4 - 1Levante
HReal Madrid2 - 0Espanyol
AReal Madrid2 - 1R.Sociedad
HReal Madrid2 - 1Mallorca
AReal Madrid3 - 0Real Oviedo
HReal Madrid1 - 0Osasuna
HReal Madrid2 - 0R.Sociedad
AReal Madrid2 - 0Sevilla
HReal Madrid2 - 1Mallorca
AReal Madrid3 - 4Barcelona
HReal Madrid3 - 2Celta
AReal Madrid1 - 0Getafe
HReal Madrid1 - 0A.Bilbao
AReal Madrid1 - 0Alaves
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at A.Bilbao since 2015
A.Bilbao
Real Madrid
Goals: Scored
7
14
Games: Scored
6 / 11
9 / 11
Clean sheets
2 / 11
5 / 11
ATH
2
D
2
RMD
7
FIXTURE HISTORY AT A.Bilbao
A.Bilbao2 - 1
0 - 2Real Madrid
0 - 2Real Madrid
1 - 2Real Madrid
0 - 1Real Madrid
0 - 1Real Madrid
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
1 - 2Real Madrid
1 - 2Real Madrid
A.Bilbao1 - 0
League games at Real Madrid since 2014
Real Madrid
A.Bilbao
Goals: Scored
23
6
Games: Scored
10 / 11
5 / 11
Clean sheets
6 / 11
1 / 11
D
3
RMD
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Real Madrid
Real Madrid1 - 0
Real Madrid2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Real Madrid1 - 0
Real Madrid3 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Real Madrid3 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Real Madrid2 - 1
Real Madrid4 - 2
Real Madrid5 - 0
Goal Statistics

Real Madrid's defensive record is very strong, X. Alonso Olano's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive La Liga games. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.1 for Athletic Bilbao makes sense in this context.

Real Madrid's fans will be hoping for goals on Wednesday evening, not least because Athletic Bilbao have conceded in each of their last 6 La Liga outings. A PG of 1.6 for X. Alonso Olano's side suggests that run should continue.

A.Bilbao 7th Real Madrid 1st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.1
goals
1.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
32%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 68% probability that A.Bilbao will score no more than 1 goal
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
13%
4+
There is a 79% probability that Real Madrid will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-7
A.Bilbao’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+7
Real Madrid’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.5
average goals scored
1.9
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
La Liga - 2025/2026 season
A.Bilbao
PG (predicted goals)
Real Madrid
1.1
1.6
Attack rating
ATH
RMD
43%
better
view stats
Games scored7
11
Failed to score5
1
Scored first5
9
Goals scored12
26
Avg. goals scored1
2.2
Avg. shots per game9
14
Avg. shots per goal9
7
Conversion rate for11
15
Avg. XG for1.3
2.2
KickOff rating
+43%
Defence rating
ATH
RMD
31%
better
view stats
Games conceded9
6
Clean sheets3
6
Conceded first6
2
Goals conceded13
10
Avg. goals conceded1.1
0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded7
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
8
Conversion rate against16%
13%
Avg. XG against0.9
1.2
KickOff rating
+31%

A.Bilbao v Real Madrid La Liga lLine ups will show here when available.

A.Bilbao La Liga squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
12214
U SimónR NavarroJ AresoD Vivian
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
U Simón GLK12
-
Y Berchiche DEF12
1
-
M. Jauregizar Alboniga MID121
1
-
J Areso DEF111
1
-
D Vivian DEF11
3
1
I Galarreta MID11
4
-
R Navarro FWD112
1
-
G Guruzeta FWD101
1
-
Álex Berenguer FWD10
1
-
M Vesga MID9
-
O Sancet MID91
-
I Williams FWD91
-
A Laporte DEF81
1
-
N Williams FWD821
1
-
M. Sannadi Harrouch FWD81
1
-
A Paredes DEF71
1
-
A. Rego Mora MID71
-
U Gómez MID6
-
A Gorosabel DEF51
-
N Serrano  FWD4
-
I Lekue DEF3
-
U. Iruretagoiena Lertxundi FWD3
1
-
B Prados MID2
1
-
?. Padilla Pérez GLK1
1
A. Boiro Boiro DEF1
-
Real Madrid La Liga squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
121354
T CourtoisK MbappéA GülerA Tchouameni
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
T Courtois GLK12
-
Álvaro Fernandez DEF121
2
-
F Valverde MID124
1
-
A Güler MID1235
1
-
K Mbappé FWD12132
2
-
V Junior FWD1254
2
-
A Tchouameni MID11
4
-
D. Huijsen DEF101
3
1
Éder Militão DEF1011
2
-
Rodrygo FWD10
1
-
D Ceballos MID9
-
B Díaz FWD92
1
-
F. Mastantuono FWD91
3
-
J Bellingham MID821
-
E Camavinga MID8
-
R. Asencio del Rosario DEF7
1
-
D Carvajal DEF7
-
G. García Torres FWD7
-
T Alexander-Arnold DEF5
-
D Alaba DEF3
-
F García DEF2
-
A Lunin GLK1
1
1
A Rüdiger DEF1
-
Endrick FWD1
-