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FK Qarabag v Chelsea : Champions League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 5th Nov, 17:45 BST, Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu, Baku

Qurban Qurbanov and Enzo Maresca meet in the Champions League on Wednesday evening, as FK Qarabag face Chelsea at the Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu. Statistics drive the predictions below for all the markets, and changing between them shows bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and much more besides. The best odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to explore.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Champions League Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Chelsea to win

Nobody in the Champions League wants to be beaten in front of their home supporters, but the statistics below suggest that is set to be Qarabag's fate as they go head-to-head with Chelsea at Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu on Wednesday evening. The bookmakers agree, with all placing the away win as the most likely outcome at odds of 1.35, and so does our predictive algorithm. We've calculated the away win in the win / draw / win market has a 70% probability, making it a clear bet of the day here.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Qarabag 13%	7/1	13/2
Draw 18%	15/4	17/4
Chelsea 70%	4/11	4/11
Chelsea 2-0 11%	13/2	13/2
Chelsea 2-1 10%	15/2	7/1
Chelsea 1-0 9%	8/1	7/1
Chelsea 3-0 8%	17/2	8/1
Draw 1-1 8%	17/2	17/2
Chelsea 3-1 8%	10/1	9/1
Chelsea 4-0 5%	14/1	12/1
Chelsea 4-1 4%	16/1	14/1
Draw 2-2 4%	16/1	14/1
Draw 0-0 4%	16/1	14/1
Qarabag 2-1 4%	22/1	18/1
Qarabag 1-0 4%	22/1	16/1
Chelsea 3-2 3%	20/1	16/1
Chelsea 5-0 2%	28/1	20/1
Chelsea 5-1 2%	33/1	22/1
Over 2.5 Goals 63%	8/15	1/2
Under 2.5 Goals 37%	6/4	7/5
Home 1st Goal 39%	21/10	12/5
Away 1st Goal 59%	4/11	7/20
No 1st Goal 2%	16/1	12/1
BTTS - Yes 54%	3/4	4/5
BTTS - No 46%	1/1	19/20
BTTS - Home Win 7%	12/1	10/1
BTTS - Draw 14%	5/1	5/1
BTTS - Away Win 33%	7/4	17/10
Home/draw 30%	2/1	2/1
Away/draw 87%	1/12	1/11
Home/away 82%	2/11	2/13
Over 1.5 Goals 84%	1/6	1/6
Under 1.5 Goals 16%	4/1	19/5
Over 3.5 Goals 41%	13/10	5/4
Under 3.5 Goals 59%	8/13	4/7
Over 4.5 Goals 23%	3/1	14/5
Under 4.5 Goals 77%	1/4	2/9
Over 5.5 Goals 11%	6/1	6/1
Under 5.5 Goals 89%	1/10	1/12
Over 0.5 Goals 96%	1/40	1/50
Under 0.5 Goals 4%	16/1	12/1
Home DNB 25%	11/2	9/2
Away DNB 82%	1/9	1/9
Qarabag win to nil 6%	14/1	-
Chelsea win to nil 37%	6/4	-
Qarabag / Qarabag 7%	12/1	9/1
Qarabag / Chelsea 5%	18/1	16/1
Qarabag / Draw 5%	18/1	14/1
Draw / Qarabag 5%	16/1	12/1
Draw / Chelsea 19%	10/3	16/5
Draw / Draw 10%	7/1	13/2
Chelsea / Qarabag 2%	40/1	33/1
Chelsea / Chelsea 42%	20/21	19/20
Chelsea / Draw 5%	16/1	14/1

Win / draw / win Champions League table

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Qarabag Chelsea
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	PSG	3	3	0	0	10	9	-	-	-	-
2	Bayern	3	3	0	0	10	9	-	-	-	l 3-1A
3	Inter	3	3	0	0	9	9	-	-	-	-
4	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	8	9	-	-	-	-
5	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	7	9	-	-	-	-
6	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	5	7	-	-	-	-
7	Man City	3	2	1	0	4	7	-	-	-	-
8	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	6	6	-	-	-	-
9	Barcelona	3	2	0	1	5	6	-	-	Nov 25	-
10	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	4	6	-	Jan 28	-	-
11	S. Lisbon	3	2	0	1	3	6	-	-	-	-
12	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	3	6	Nov 5	-	-	-
13	Qarabag	3	2	0	1	1	6	-	-	-	Nov 5
14	Galatasaray	3	2	0	1	-1	6	-	-	-	-
15	Spurs	3	1	2	0	1	5	-	-	-	-
16	PSV	3	1	1	1	2	4	-	-	-	-
17	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	-3	4	-	-	-	Dec 9
18	Marseille	3	1	0	2	2	3	-	-	-	-
19	A.Madrid	3	1	0	2	-1	3	-	-	-	-
20	Brugge	3	1	0	2	-2	3	-	-	-	-
21	A.Bilbao	3	1	0	2	-3	3	-	l 3-1F	-	-
22	E.Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-4	3	Jan 21	-	-	-
23	Napoli	3	1	0	2	-5	3	-	Nov 25	-	Jan 28
24	Union SG	3	1	0	2	-6	3	-	-	-	-
25	Juventus	3	0	2	1	-1	2	-	-	-	-
26	Bodø	3	0	2	1	-2	2	-	-	-	-
27	Monaco	3	0	2	1	-3	2	-	-	-	-
28	Slavia	3	0	2	1	-3	2	-	-	-	-
29	Paphos	3	0	2	1	-4	2	-	-	Jan 21	-
30	Leverkusen	3	0	2	1	-5	2	-	-	-	-
31	Villarreal	3	0	1	2	-3	1	-	-	-	-
32	Kobenhavn	3	0	1	2	-4	1	w 2-0F	-	-	-
33	Olympiakos	3	0	1	2	-7	1	-	-	-	-
34	Kairat Almaty	3	0	1	2	-8	1	-	-	-	-
35	Benfica	3	0	0	3	-5	0	-	w 2-3A	w 1-0F	-
36	Ajax	3	0	0	3	-10	0	Dec 10	-	w 5-1F	-
37	Shelbourne							w 1-0F	w 0-3F	-	-
38	Skendija 79							w 5-1A	w 0-1F	-	-
39	Ferencvaros							l 2-3A	w 1-3A	-	-

	Next round
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Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Qarabag	2 - 0	Kobenhavn
Qarabag	2 - 3	Ferencvaros
Qarabag	5 - 1	Skendija 79
Qarabag	1 - 0	Shelbourne
Qarabag	2 - 3	FCSB
Qarabag	1 - 4	Lyon
Qarabag	0 - 3	Ajax
Qarabag	1 - 2	Malmö
Qarabag	0 - 2	D. Zagreb
Qarabag	1 - 2	Ludogorets
Qarabag	5 - 0	Lincoln Red Imps
Qarabag	2 - 2	Leverkusen
Qarabag	0 - 2	Braga
Qarabag	2 - 1	Häcken
Qarabag	0 - 1	Leverkusen
Qarabag	1 - 0	Molde
Qarabag	1 - 1	Olimpija
Qarabag	2 - 1	HJK Helsinki
Qarabag	1 - 1	Rakow
Qarabag	4 - 0	Lincoln Red Imps

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Qarabag	1 - 3	A.Bilbao
H	Qarabag	2 - 0	Kobenhavn
A	Qarabag	3 - 2	Benfica
H	Qarabag	2 - 3	Ferencvaros
A	Qarabag	3 - 1	Ferencvaros
H	Qarabag	5 - 1	Skendija 79
A	Qarabag	1 - 0	Skendija 79
H	Qarabag	1 - 0	Shelbourne
A	Qarabag	3 - 0	Shelbourne
A	Qarabag	0 - 3	Olympiakos
H	Qarabag	2 - 3	FCSB
A	Qarabag	0 - 1	Elfsborg
H	Qarabag	1 - 4	Lyon
A	Qarabag	2 - 1	Bodø
H	Qarabag	0 - 3	Ajax
H	Qarabag	1 - 2	Malmö
A	Qarabag	0 - 3	Spurs
H	Qarabag	0 - 2	D. Zagreb
A	Qarabag	0 - 3	D. Zagreb
A	Qarabag	3 - 2	Ludogorets

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bayern	3 - 1	Chelsea
Real Betis	1 - 4	Chelsea
Djurgårdens	1 - 4	Chelsea
L. Warsaw	0 - 3	Chelsea
Kobenhavn	1 - 2	Chelsea
Astana	1 - 3	Chelsea
Heidenheim	0 - 2	Chelsea
Panathinaikos	1 - 4	Chelsea
Servette	2 - 1	Chelsea
Real Madrid	2 - 0	Chelsea
Dortmund	1 - 0	Chelsea
Salzburg	1 - 2	Chelsea
Milan	0 - 2	Chelsea
D. Zagreb	1 - 0	Chelsea
Real Madrid	1 - 3	Chelsea
Lille	1 - 2	Chelsea
Zenit	3 - 3	Chelsea
Malmö	0 - 1	Chelsea
Juventus	1 - 0	Chelsea
Man City	0 - 1	Chelsea

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Chelsea	5 - 1	Ajax
H	Chelsea	1 - 0	Benfica
A	Chelsea	1 - 3	Bayern
A	Chelsea	4 - 1	Real Betis
H	Chelsea	1 - 0	Djurgårdens
A	Chelsea	4 - 1	Djurgårdens
H	Chelsea	1 - 2	L. Warsaw
A	Chelsea	3 - 0	L. Warsaw
H	Chelsea	1 - 0	Kobenhavn
A	Chelsea	2 - 1	Kobenhavn
H	Chelsea	5 - 1	Shamrock
A	Chelsea	3 - 1	Astana
A	Chelsea	2 - 0	Heidenheim
H	Chelsea	8 - 0	Noah
A	Chelsea	4 - 1	Panathinaikos
H	Chelsea	4 - 2	Gent
A	Chelsea	1 - 2	Servette
H	Chelsea	2 - 0	Servette
H	Chelsea	0 - 2	Real Madrid
A	Chelsea	0 - 2	Real Madrid

Goal Statistics

Chelsea have been consistent in attack of late, finding the net in 17 consecutive Champions League outings. Their PG of 1.7 against FK Qarabag on Wednesday suggests that run is likely to continue.

	Qarabag 13th	Chelsea 12th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	0.9 goals	2.3 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 40% 1 37% 2 17% 3 4+ There is a 77% probability of Qarabag scoring 1 goal or less	0 10% 1 22% 2 26% 3 21% 4+ 21% There is a 68% probability that Chelsea will score 2 or more goals in this match

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-10 Qarabag’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+10 Chelsea’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.7 average goals scored	1.9 average goals scored
	1.5 conceded	1.1 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Champions League - 2025/2025 season

FKQ

CHE

33%

better

view stats

Games scored	14		19
Failed to score	6		1
Scored first	9		13
Goals scored	30		43
Avg. goals scored	1.5		2.2
Avg. shots per game	10		10
Avg. shots per goal	7		5
Conversion rate for	15		22
Avg. XG for	1.3		1.6
KickOff rating		+33%

FKQ

CHE

34%

better

view stats

Games conceded	16		12
Clean sheets	4		8
Conceded first	11		6
Goals conceded	37		20
Avg. goals conceded	1.9		1
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		8
Conversion rate against	18%		13%
Avg. XG against	1.8		1.3
KickOff rating		+34%

The line-ups for the Champions League match between Qarabag v Chelsea will show here when available.

Qarabag Champions League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
9	5	3	3
M Silva	L Andrade	A Zoubir	M Silva

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
E Cafarquliyev DEF	9		1	-
M Silva DEF	9			3 -
B Mustafazada DEF	9		1	-
P Bicalho MID	9		1	1 -
K Borges MID	9	1	2	1 -
A Zoubir FWD	9	2	3	-
L Andrade FWD	9	5	2	-
M Kochalski GLK	8			1 -
K Medina DEF	8	1		2 -
N Akhundzade FWD	8	2	2	2 -
E Addai FWD	8	1		-
M Qurbanly FWD	7	1		-
M Jankovic MID	6	2	1	-
Chriso MID	6			-
O Kashchuk FWD	6	2		1 -
D Bolt DEF	4			1 -
C. Durán Marquez FWD	3	1	1	-
F Buntic GLK	1			-
S Mmaee DEF	1			-
A Hüseynov DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	3	3	3
L Andrade	A Zoubir	A Zoubir	K Borges

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
L Andrade FWD	5	3	2	2
A Zoubir FWD	2	3	3	1
N Akhundzade FWD	2		2	1
M Jankovic MID	2	2	1
O Kashchuk FWD	2	3
K Borges MID	1	2	2	3
K Medina DEF	1	1
E Addai FWD	1	1		1
M Qurbanly FWD	1	1
C. Durán Marquez FWD	1	3	1
E Cafarquliyev DEF			1
M Silva DEF		2		1
B Mustafazada DEF			1	1
P Bicalho MID			1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
223	12	39
K Medina	M Silva	M Silva

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
K Medina DEF	223	6	25
A Zoubir FWD	200	4	23
E Cafarquliyev DEF	192	7	16
M Kochalski GLK	192		3
P Bicalho MID	186	5	10
B Mustafazada DEF	179	5	16
M Jankovic MID	171	8	27
K Borges MID	159	7	26
M Silva DEF	141	12	39
L Andrade FWD	76	4	7
E Addai FWD	40	3	10
N Akhundzade FWD	31		13
C. Durán Marquez FWD	25	5	12
O Kashchuk FWD	15	3	10
M Qurbanly FWD	6
D Bolt DEF	5	2	4
Chriso MID	4		1

Chelsea Champions League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
3	1	1	2
E Fernández	E Fernández	M Gusto	J Pedro

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Chalobah DEF	3			-
E Fernández MID	3	1		1 -
M Caicedo MID	3	1		-
E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves FWD	3	1		1 -
R Sánchez GLK	2			-
J. Acheampong DEF	2			-
M Cucurella DEF	2			-
T Adarabioyo DEF	2			1 -
M Gusto DEF	2		1	-
R James DEF	2			-
F Buonanotte MID	2			1 -
A Santos MID	2		1	1 -
A Garnacho FWD	2			-
J Bynoe-Gittens FWD	2		1	-
T. George FWD	2	1		-
P Neto FWD	2			1 -
J Pedro FWD	2			1 1
F Jörgensen GLK	1			-
J Hato DEF	1			-
B Badiashile DEF	1			-
W Fofana DEF	1		1	-
R Lavia MID	1			-
C Palmer MID	1	1		-
M Guiu FWD	1	1		-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
1	4	1	2
E Fernández	E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves	M Gusto	E Fernández

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
E Fernández MID	1	1		2
M Caicedo MID	1	1
E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves FWD	1	4
T. George FWD	1	2
C Palmer MID	1	1		1
M Guiu FWD	1	2
J. Acheampong DEF		1
M Gusto DEF			1
R James DEF		1
F Buonanotte MID		1
A Santos MID			1	1
A Garnacho FWD		1
J Bynoe-Gittens FWD		1	1	1
W Fofana DEF			1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
174	9	15
T Chalobah	M Caicedo	E Fernández

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
T Chalobah DEF	174		6
M Caicedo MID	164	9	13
T Adarabioyo DEF	113	2	3
B Badiashile DEF	99	2	2
E Fernández MID	97	4	15
W Fofana DEF	78		3
A Santos MID	74	1	3
R Sánchez GLK	69		1
M Gusto DEF	69	4	8
M Cucurella DEF	66	7	12
J Hato DEF	63	3	7
F Buonanotte MID	59	3	11
E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves FWD	53	1	8
J. Acheampong DEF	51	4	6
R Lavia MID	51	2	2
T. George FWD	39	1	2
P Neto FWD	39	2	6
A Garnacho FWD	37	1	3
R James DEF	34	1	2
J Bynoe-Gittens FWD	33	3	8
J Pedro FWD	29	2	11
C Palmer MID	27	1	3
F Jörgensen GLK	12
M Guiu FWD	3