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Independiente v Vélez Sarsfield : Primera División match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 31st Jan, 22:45 BST, Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda

Guillermo Barros Schelotto takes his Vélez Sarsfield side to the Estadio Libertadores de América in the Primera División on Saturday night, with Gustavo Enrique Domingo Quinteros Desábato's Independiente the opponent. In this preview you'll find the best odds for 17 different betting markets, alongside bespoke data that updates as you go between markets. Our predictions run off the last 20 matches, so all statistics are shown for each side's last 20 too. Home, away and overall records can be viewed, while you'll also find head-to-head history a little further down the page.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Independiente are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 53% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.90.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Independiente 50%	10/11	23/20
Draw 28%	15/8	2/1
Velez 22%	15/4	29/10
Independiente 1-0 16%	4/1	4/1
Draw 1-1 13%	5/1	19/4
Draw 0-0 12%	9/2	9/2
Independiente 2-0 11%	13/2	7/1
Velez 1-0 9%	8/1	6/1
Independiente 2-1 8%	9/1	17/2
Velez 2-1 5%	16/1	12/1
Independiente 3-0 5%	16/1	14/1
Independiente 3-1 4%	20/1	18/1
Velez 2-0 4%	20/1	14/1
Draw 2-2 3%	20/1	18/1
Independiente 4-0 2%	40/1	28/1
Independiente 3-2 2%	40/1	33/1
Velez 3-1 1%	40/1	33/1
Independiente 4-1 1%	40/1	40/1
Over 2.5 Goals 36%	15/8	15/8
Under 2.5 Goals 64%	2/5	2/5
Home 1st Goal 53%	8/11	4/5
Away 1st Goal 39%	15/8	13/8
No 1st Goal 8%	9/2	9/2
BTTS - Yes 41%	11/8	7/5
BTTS - No 59%	8/15	1/2
BTTS - Home Win 16%	5/1	19/4
BTTS - Draw 16%	4/1	19/5
BTTS - Away Win 8%	12/1	17/2
Home/draw 78%	2/11	1/4
Away/draw 50%	4/5	4/6
Home/away 72%	2/5	4/11
Over 1.5 Goals 63%	4/7	3/5
Under 1.5 Goals 37%	5/4	6/5
Over 3.5 Goals 17%	5/1	19/4
Under 3.5 Goals 83%	1/8	1/9
Over 4.5 Goals 7%	14/1	12/1
Under 4.5 Goals 93%	1/33	1/40
Over 5.5 Goals 2%	28/1	25/1
Under 5.5 Goals 98%	1/150	1/1000
Over 0.5 Goals 88%	1/7	1/8
Under 0.5 Goals 12%	9/2	9/2
Home DNB 69%	1/3	4/9
Away DNB 42%	9/4	8/5
Independiente win to nil 33%	13/8	-
Velez win to nil 14%	11/2	-
Independiente / Independiente 24%	11/5	12/5
Independiente / Velez 2%	40/1	33/1
Independiente / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1
Draw / Independiente 18%	7/2	18/5
Draw / Velez 10%	15/2	13/2
Draw / Draw 20%	3/1	14/5
Velez / Independiente 3%	28/1	25/1
Velez / Velez 12%	13/2	5/1
Velez / Draw 5%	16/1	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Independiente have not lost in 6 consecutive league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

8 / 20

Clean sheets

12 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Independiente	1 - 1	Estudiantes
Independiente	1 - 0	Rosario
Independiente	3 - 0	A. Tucuman
Independiente	3 - 0	Platense
Independiente	0 - 2	Lanus
Independiente	1 - 1	San Lorenzo
Independiente	0 - 1	Banfield
Independiente	0 - 0	River Plate
Independiente	1 - 2	Tal Cordoba
Independiente	0 - 0	Huracan
Independiente	1 - 0	Independiente Rivadavia
Independiente	0 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
Independiente	2 - 0	SM San Juan
Independiente	4 - 0	Godoy Cruz
Independiente	1 - 1	Racing Club
Independiente	2 - 0	Instituto
Independiente	3 - 0	Velez
Independiente	2 - 0	Gimnasia
Independiente	2 - 1	Sarmiento
Independiente	2 - 1	A. Tucuman

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Independiente	1 - 1	Newells
H	Independiente	1 - 1	Estudiantes
H	Independiente	1 - 0	Rosario
A	Independiente	1 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
H	Independiente	3 - 0	A. Tucuman
H	Independiente	3 - 0	Platense
A	Independiente	0 - 1	SM San Juan
H	Independiente	0 - 2	Lanus
A	Independiente	1 - 1	Godoy Cruz
A	Independiente	0 - 0	Racing Club
H	Independiente	1 - 1	San Lorenzo
H	Independiente	0 - 1	Banfield
A	Independiente	0 - 0	Instituto
A	Independiente	1 - 2	Velez
H	Independiente	0 - 0	River Plate
A	Independiente	0 - 1	Gimnasia
H	Independiente	1 - 2	Tal Cordoba
A	Independiente	2 - 2	Sarmiento
H	Independiente	0 - 0	Huracan
A	Independiente	1 - 0	Boca Juniors

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Instituto	0 - 1	Velez
Gimnasia	2 - 0	Velez
Sarmiento	0 - 2	Velez
Deportivo Riestra	2 - 2	Velez
SM San Juan	1 - 2	Velez
Huracan	0 - 0	Velez
Godoy Cruz	0 - 2	Velez
San Lorenzo	1 - 0	Velez
Platense	0 - 0	Velez
River Plate	4 - 1	Velez
Tal Cordoba	0 - 1	Velez
Rosario	2 - 1	Velez
A. Tucuman	1 - 2	Velez
Lanus	0 - 0	Velez
Independiente	3 - 0	Velez
Instituto	2 - 0	Velez
Tig	3 - 0	Velez
U Santa Fe	1 - 0	Velez
Godoy Cruz	0 - 0	Velez
Deportivo Riestra	1 - 1	Velez

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Velez	2 - 1	Tal Cordoba
A	Velez	1 - 0	Instituto
H	Velez	0 - 2	Argentinos
H	Velez	0 - 0	River Plate
A	Velez	0 - 2	Gimnasia
H	Velez	0 - 1	Tal Cordoba
A	Velez	2 - 0	Sarmiento
H	Velez	1 - 2	Rosario
A	Velez	2 - 2	Deportivo Riestra
H	Velez	3 - 1	A. Tucuman
A	Velez	2 - 1	SM San Juan
A	Velez	0 - 0	Huracan
H	Velez	3 - 0	Lanus
A	Velez	2 - 0	Godoy Cruz
H	Velez	2 - 1	Independiente
A	Velez	0 - 1	San Lorenzo
H	Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
A	Velez	0 - 0	Platense
H	Velez	2 - 1	Tig
A	Velez	1 - 4	River Plate

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Independiente have not lost to Velez in 5 consecutive home league meetings

Independiente

Velez

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 5

4 / 5

Clean sheets

1 / 5

0 / 5

IND

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Independiente
Independiente	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Independiente	2 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Independiente	2 - 1

Velez

Independiente

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

4 / 7

3 / 7

Clean sheets

4 / 7

3 / 7

IND

VEL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Velez
Velez	2 - 1
	0 - 1	Independiente
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	3 - 3	Draw
Velez	1 - 0
Velez	2 - 0

Goal Statistics

	Independiente 7th	Velez 1st
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.3 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 26% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 61% probability that Independiente will score no more than 1 goal	0 45% 1 36% 2 14% 3 4+ There is a 81% probability of Velez scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+9 Independiente’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-20 Velez have scored 20% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.5 average goals scored	0.8 average goals scored
	0.5 conceded	1.2 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Primera División - 2026/2026 season

IND

VEL

better

view stats

Games scored	2		2
Failed to score	0		0
Scored first	2		1
Goals scored	2		3
Avg. goals scored	1		1.5
Avg. shots per game	8		8
Avg. shots per goal	8		5
Conversion rate for	13		20
Avg. XG for	0.5		0.5
KickOff rating		+8%

IND

VEL

28%

better

view stats

Games conceded	2		1
Clean sheets	0		1
Conceded first	0		1
Goals conceded	2		1
Avg. goals conceded	1		0.5
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		14
Avg. shots/goal conceded	10		28
Conversion rate against	11%		4%
Avg. XG against	0.7		1.1
KickOff rating		+28%