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Bahia v Gremio : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mon 20th Oct, 00:30 BST, Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador

The Serie A is the focus for both Bahia and Gremio on Monday morning, as managers Rogério Mücke Ceni and Luiz Antônio Venker de Menezes go head to head at the Arena Fonte Nova. For every Serie A fixture, KickOff dives into the stats for seventeen major betting markets. Meaningful stats, including head to head (H2H) results, are then given alongside the best odds.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We think it's fairly unlikely that this match will serve up more than 3 goals at most, and the odds and statistics are in line with KO's predictive algorithm on this one. Bahia and Gremio have seldom served up goal-fests of late, whether that be in Serie A individually or when going head-to-head. So, in the absence of a convincing favourite draw or double chance market, we're suggesting under 3.5 goals. You can go for that at a best price of 1.22.

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Bahia 52%	1.73 4%	1.73 5%
Draw 25%	3.80 6%	3.70 3%
Gremio 23%	4.50 4%	4.80 11%
Bahia 1-0 12%	6.50 8%	6.00 9%
Draw 1-1 12%	7.50 7%	6.50
Bahia 2-0 10%	7.50	7.00
Bahia 2-1 9%	8.50 6%	7.50 6%
Draw 0-0 8%	9.50 12%	8.00 7%
Gremio 1-0 7%	11.00 10%	10.00 11%
Gremio 2-1 6%	15.00	13.00
Bahia 3-0 5%	13.00 13%	11.00 8%
Bahia 3-1 5%	15.00 12%	12.00 8%
Draw 2-2 5%	19.00	15.00
Gremio 2-0 4%	23.00 10%	19.00 12%
Bahia 3-2 2%	29.00 15%	21.00 9%
Bahia 4-0 2%	26.00 10%	21.00 9%
Bahia 4-1 2%	29.00 15%	23.00 12%
Gremio 3-1 2%	41.00	29.00
Over 2.5 Goals 47%	2.05 7%	2.00 7%
Under 2.5 Goals 53%	1.75 6%	1.73 7%
Home 1st Goal 54%	1.57 3%	1.55 4%
Away 1st Goal 42%	2.75 5%	2.88 5%
No 1st Goal 5%	9.50 12%	8.00 7%
BTTS - Yes 49%	2.00 2%	2.00 2%
BTTS - No 51%	1.75 3%	1.75 3%
BTTS - Home Win 22%	4.00 11%	3.80 10%
BTTS - Draw 17%	5.50	5.00
BTTS - Away Win 10%	9.50 5%	8.50
Home/draw 77%	1.18 2%	1.18 2%
Away/draw 48%	2.05 5%	2.10 8%
Home/away 75%	1.25 3%	1.29
Over 1.5 Goals 72%	1.33 5%	1.33 5%
Under 1.5 Goals 28%	3.40 13%	3.10 11%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%	3.75 13%	3.50 10%
Under 3.5 Goals 74%	1.29 6%	1.29 6%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%	7.00 22%	6.50 19%
Under 4.5 Goals 88%	1.10 3%	1.09 2%
Over 5.5 Goals 5%	15.00 21%	13.00 13%
Under 5.5 Goals 95%	1.03 1%	1.02 1%
Over 0.5 Goals 92%	1.06 1%	1.06 1%
Under 0.5 Goals 8%	10.00 12%	8.50 13%
Home DNB 70%	1.29 3%	1.29 3%
Away DNB 40%	3.50 8%	3.40 10%
Bahia win to nil 30%	2.63	-
Gremio win to nil 13%	8.00 23%	-
Bahia / Bahia 31%	2.63 9%	2.62 6%
Bahia / Gremio 2%	41.00	29.00
Bahia / Draw 6%	15.00	13.00
Draw / Bahia 18%	4.50	4.33 4%
Draw / Gremio 8%	10.00 11%	9.00 6%
Draw / Draw 15%	5.50 10%	5.00 4%
Gremio / Bahia 4%	23.00 12%	19.00 10%
Gremio / Gremio 10%	8.50 6%	7.50 15%
Gremio / Draw 5%	17.00	13.00

form

head to head (H2H)

Goal Statistics

Bahia have been reliable in front of goal of late, scoring in 10 consecutive Serie A outings. Their PG of 1.6 against Gremio on Monday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

	Bahia 6th	Gremio 11th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.6 goals	1.0 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 20% 1 32% 2 26% 3 14% 4+ There is a 80% probability that Bahia will score 1 or more goals	0 38% 1 37% 2 18% 3 4+ There is a 75% probability of Gremio scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-4 Bahia’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+4 Gremio’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.5 average goals scored	1.0 average goals scored
	0.9 conceded	1.5 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season

20%

better

BAH

GRE

view stats

Games scored	22		19
Failed to score	4		8
Scored first	16		12
Goals scored	34		28
Avg. goals scored	1.3		1
Avg. shots per game	9		8
Avg. shots per goal	7		8
Conversion rate for	14		13
Avg. XG for	1.2		1
KickOff rating		+20%

17%

better

BAH

GRE

view stats

Games conceded	17		23
Clean sheets	9		4
Conceded first	9		14
Goals conceded	30		33
Avg. goals conceded	1.2		1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		11
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		9
Conversion rate against	12%		11%
Avg. XG against	1.4		1.6
KickOff rating		+17%

Bahia v Gremio Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	5	4	6
L Juba	L Juba	W José	Gilberto

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Juba DEF	25	5	3	2 -
S Mingo DEF	24			4 -
S Suay MID	24	2	3	4 1
J Lucas MID	23	3	1	2 2
W José FWD	22	5	4	3 -
N Acevedo MID	20			3 -
Kayky FWD	20	1	1	2 -
Cauly MID	19	1	3	1 -
Ademir FWD	19	1	1	4 -
Gilberto DEF	18	1		6 -
D Duarte DEF	18			3 -
M Araújo FWD	17	4		1 -
Ronaldo GLK	16		1	-
C Alexandre MID	16		1	4 -
E Pulga FWD	16	2	3	1 -
R Nestor MID	14	3		3 -
S Arias DEF	13			3 -
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD	12		1	-
Iago DEF	9			-
G Xavier DEF	9			3 -
Rezende MID	9			-
Erick MID	8	1		3 -
M Sanabria FWD	6	1		2 1
Kanu DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	15	4	8
L Juba	W José	W José	S Suay

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
L Juba DEF	5	8	3	5
W José FWD	5	15	4	3
M Araújo FWD	4	7		1
J Lucas MID	3	10	1	6
R Nestor MID	3	5		2
S Suay MID	2	6	3	8
E Pulga FWD	2	7	3	7
Kayky FWD	1	6	1	2
Cauly MID	1	5	3	2
Ademir FWD	1	8	1	6
Gilberto DEF	1	4		1
Erick MID	1	1
M Sanabria FWD	1	2
S Mingo DEF				2
N Acevedo MID		4		1
D Duarte DEF		2
Ronaldo GLK			1
C Alexandre MID		1	1	1
S Arias DEF		2
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD		1	1	1
Iago DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1277	40	101
S Mingo	L Juba	S Suay

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Mingo DEF	1277	23	99
L Juba DEF	1126	40	80
D Duarte DEF	989	16	73
C Alexandre MID	931	25	64
S Suay MID	925	37	101
Gilberto DEF	812	39	79
J Lucas MID	738	34	98
N Acevedo MID	626	30	65
S Arias DEF	464	13	26
Ronaldo GLK	453		13
G Xavier DEF	384	10	39
Cauly MID	328	5	23
E Pulga FWD	316	26	92
Ademir FWD	314	26	91
W José FWD	307	8	52
Kayky FWD	301	21	54
R Nestor MID	259	14	28
Rezende MID	247	8	29
M Araújo FWD	197	13	43
Iago DEF	146	9	18
Erick MID	143	10	22
M Sanabria FWD	87	3	43
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD	69	9	37
Kanu DEF	61	1	2

Gremio Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	6	2	7
T Volpi	M Braithwaite	Marlon	Dodi

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Volpi GLK	24	2		2 -
Wagner DEF	24		1	2 -
Dodi MID	24			6 1
Edenilson MID	22	3	1	4 -
A. da Rocha dos Santos FWD	22	1	1	3 -
Marlon DEF	21		2	6 -
F Cristaldo MID	20		2	1 -
C Olivera FWD	19	2		3 -
C Pavón FWD	19		2	4 -
M Braithwaite FWD	18	6	1	3 -
André FWD	17	3	2	2 -
A Guzmán FWD	17	3		1 -
M Villasanti MID	16			5 -
W Kannemann DEF	15			6 1
F Amuzu FWD	14	2	1	2 -
G Martins DEF	13	1		2 -
Camilo MID	13			-
R. Freitas dos Santos MID	10			-
Jemerson DEF	9	1		3 -
G Cuéllar MID	8			1 -
E Mola MID	8			-
A Santana MID	8			4 -
M Monsalve MID	8		1	2 -
L Esteves DEF	7			1 -
J Pedro DEF	7			-
M Rocha DEF	6			1 -
Arthur MID	6			1 1
G Grando GLK	5			1 1
C Vinícius FWD	5	3		1 1
F Balbuena DEF	3	1		-
J Lucas DEF	3			1 -
Willian FWD	3		1	-
V Lopes DEF	2			-
R Ely DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	16	2	6
M Braithwaite	M Braithwaite	Marlon	Marlon

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Braithwaite FWD	6	16	1	1
Edenilson MID	3	9	1	4
André FWD	3	10	2	2
A Guzmán FWD	3	4		2
C Vinícius FWD	3	5		1
T Volpi GLK	2	2
C Olivera FWD	2	10		1
F Amuzu FWD	2	7	1	2
A. da Rocha dos Santos FWD	1	7	1	4
G Martins DEF	1	6
Jemerson DEF	1	2
F Balbuena DEF	1	1
Wagner DEF		5	1	2
Dodi MID		1		1
Marlon DEF		2	2	6
F Cristaldo MID		3	2	3
C Pavón FWD		5	2	3
W Kannemann DEF		2
Camilo MID				1
R. Freitas dos Santos MID		1		2
A Santana MID		1
M Monsalve MID		1	1
L Esteves DEF		1
J Pedro DEF		3
M Rocha DEF				1
Arthur MID		1
Willian FWD			1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
947	54	146
Wagner	Marlon	A. da Rocha dos Santos

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Wagner DEF	947	20	81
Marlon DEF	801	54	108
T Volpi GLK	634		16
Dodi MID	587	39	94
M Villasanti MID	535	43	81
W Kannemann DEF	525	21	76
C Pavón FWD	386	19	55
Edenilson MID	385	14	60
G Martins DEF	370	16	46
Jemerson DEF	336	18	43
F Cristaldo MID	331	15	60
Arthur MID	325	16	35
A. da Rocha dos Santos FWD	319	38	146
E Mola MID	302	9	24
M Rocha DEF	297	23	40
G Cuéllar MID	292	17	33
L Esteves DEF	273	11	33
M Braithwaite FWD	260	10	70
C Olivera FWD	252	27	87
J Pedro DEF	209	8	20
Camilo MID	185	22	35
André FWD	182	9	41
F Balbuena DEF	166	3	12
R. Freitas dos Santos MID	166	6	32
A Santana MID	165	4	19
F Amuzu FWD	156	6	31
A Guzmán FWD	138	7	22
G Grando GLK	105		3
M Monsalve MID	103	5	24
Willian FWD	90		9
C Vinícius FWD	45	1	22
J Lucas DEF	31	5	6
R Ely DEF	13	1	3
V Lopes DEF	7