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Botafogo v Gremio : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 16th Sep, 23:30 BST, Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro

the Estádio Nilton Santos crowd welcome Gremio's fans on Wednesday night, as Franclim Pereira da Silva Maia Carvalho's Botafogo go head to head with Luís Manuel Ribeiro de Castro's side in the Serie A. We've got bespoke statistics for the biggest betting markets, from team to score first to full time result, including form and historical head-to-head data. Predictions are generated from these, and the odds come straight from leading bookmakers.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

Our calculations suggest that there's minimal chance that this game will serve up 4 goals or more, and the odds and stats are in line with our predictive algorithm on this one. Botafogo and Gremio haven't typically served up a high volume of goals of late, whether that be in Serie A individually or when going head-to-head. So, in the absence of a strong favourite WDW or double chance market, we're suggesting under 3.5 goals. The UK's top bookies have that available at a best price of 1.30.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Botafogo are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 53% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.75.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Botafogo 53%	5/8 4%	3/4 1%
Draw 26%	13/5	5/2 8%
Gremio 22%	4/1 5%	4/1 9%
Botafogo 1-0 13%	13/2 15%	5/1
Draw 1-1 12%	6/1	5/1 8%
Botafogo 2-0 10%	15/2 6%	13/2 7%
Botafogo 2-1 9%	15/2	13/2
Draw 0-0 9%	11/1 20%	8/1 10%
Gremio 1-0 8%	14/1 25%	10/1 10%
Gremio 2-1 5%	16/1 13%	12/1
Botafogo 3-0 5%	12/1	10/1
Botafogo 3-1 5%	12/1 13%	11/1
Draw 2-2 4%	14/1 12%	12/1
Gremio 2-0 4%	25/1 13%	18/1 12%
Botafogo 3-2 2%	22/1 21%	20/1
Botafogo 4-0 2%	25/1 10%	20/1
Botafogo 4-1 2%	25/1 10%	20/1 9%
Gremio 3-1 2%	40/1	28/1 12%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%	4/5 10%	19/20
Under 2.5 Goals 56%	1/1 11%	4/5
Home 1st Goal 54%	8/15 3%	8/15 1%
Away 1st Goal 41%	13/8	19/10 5%
No 1st Goal 6%	11/1 20%	8/1 10%
BTTS - Yes 47%	3/4 10%	17/20 3%
BTTS - No 53%	1/1 11%	17/20 1%
BTTS - Home Win 21%	5/2 13%	11/4
BTTS - Draw 17%	15/4 5%	17/5 8%
BTTS - Away Win 9%	8/1 5%	8/1 13%
Home/draw 78%	1/6 1%	1/6 3%
Away/draw 48%	23/20 5%	21/20
Home/away 74%	2/7	3/10 4%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%	1/4 6%	3/10 1%
Under 1.5 Goals 30%	3/1 18%	23/10
Over 3.5 Goals 23%	2/1 14%	23/10 3%
Under 3.5 Goals 77%	2/5 8%	3/10 1%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%	9/2 15%	11/2
Under 4.5 Goals 90%	1/7 3%	1/10 1%
Over 5.5 Goals 4%	10/1 27%	11/1 8%
Under 5.5 Goals 96%	1/20 2%	1/50
Over 0.5 Goals 91%	1/25 2%	1/20 1%
Under 0.5 Goals 9%	11/1 20%	8/1 10%
Home DNB 70%	1/4 3%	1/4 3%
Away DNB 40%	11/4 7%	5/2 6%
Botafogo win to nil 32%	2/1 9%	-
Gremio win to nil 13%	8/1 13%	-
Botafogo / Botafogo 31%	13/8 4%	8/5 4%
Botafogo / Gremio 2%	33/1 17%	33/1 17%
Botafogo / Draw 6%	14/1	11/1
Draw / Botafogo 18%	7/2	18/5
Draw / Gremio 8%	9/1 5%	17/2 6%
Draw / Draw 15%	5/1 9%	19/5 13%
Gremio / Botafogo 4%	20/1 9%	18/1
Gremio / Gremio 10%	7/1	13/2 15%
Gremio / Draw 6%	14/1 12%	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Botafogo	1 - 1	Bragantino
Botafogo	0 - 0	Palmeiras
Botafogo	2 - 3	Athletico PR
Botafogo	1 - 1	Fluminense
Botafogo	0 - 0	Vitoria
Botafogo	2 - 1	Santos
Botafogo	3 - 1	Corinthians
Botafogo	1 - 2	Remo
Botafogo	2 - 2	Internacional
Botafogo	2 - 2	Cortiba
Botafogo	3 - 2	Mirassol
Botafogo	0 - 3	Flamengo
Botafogo	4 - 0	Cruzeiro
Botafogo	4 - 2	Fortaleza
Botafogo	3 - 2	Gremio
Botafogo	3 - 2	S. Recife
Botafogo	3 - 0	Vasco d Gama
Botafogo	2 - 2	Santos
Botafogo	0 - 3	Flamengo
Botafogo	2 - 1	Bahia

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Botafogo	1 - 1	Bragantino
H	Botafogo	0 - 0	Palmeiras
A	Botafogo	0 - 3	Flamengo
H	Botafogo	2 - 3	Athletico PR
A	Botafogo	0 - 1	Vitoria
H	Botafogo	1 - 1	Fluminense
A	Botafogo	1 - 0	Cruzeiro
H	Botafogo	0 - 0	Vitoria
H	Botafogo	2 - 1	Santos
A	Botafogo	1 - 2	Bahia
A	Botafogo	1 - 1	Sao Paulo
H	Botafogo	3 - 1	Corinthians
A	Botafogo	1 - 1	A Mineiro
H	Botafogo	1 - 2	Remo
H	Botafogo	2 - 2	Internacional
A	Botafogo	4 - 1	Chapecoense
H	Botafogo	2 - 2	Cortiba
A	Botafogo	2 - 1	Vasco d Gama
H	Botafogo	3 - 2	Mirassol
A	Botafogo	1 - 4	Athletico PR

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Vitoria	1 - 0	Gremio
Bragantino	1 - 0	Gremio
A Mineiro	3 - 0	Gremio
Mirassol	2 - 1	Gremio
Bahia	1 - 1	Gremio
Athletico PR	0 - 0	Gremio
Cruzeiro	2 - 0	Gremio
Internacional	0 - 0	Gremio
Palmeiras	2 - 1	Gremio
Vasco d Gama	2 - 1	Gremio
Chapecoense	1 - 1	Gremio
Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Gremio
Fluminense	2 - 1	Gremio
S. Recife	0 - 4	Gremio
Botafogo	3 - 2	Gremio
Fortaleza	2 - 2	Gremio
Corinthians	2 - 0	Gremio
Bahia	4 - 0	Gremio
Bragantino	1 - 0	Gremio
Santos	1 - 1	Gremio

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Gremio	1 - 2	Vasco d Gama
A	Gremio	0 - 1	Vitoria
H	Gremio	3 - 1	Chapecoense
A	Gremio	0 - 1	Bragantino
A	Gremio	0 - 3	A Mineiro
H	Gremio	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
H	Gremio	1 - 1	Fluminense
A	Gremio	1 - 2	Mirassol
H	Gremio	1 - 3	Corinthians
H	Gremio	3 - 2	Santos
A	Gremio	1 - 1	Bahia
H	Gremio	0 - 1	Flamengo
A	Gremio	0 - 0	Athletico PR
H	Gremio	1 - 0	Cortiba
A	Gremio	0 - 2	Cruzeiro
A	Gremio	0 - 0	Internacional
H	Gremio	0 - 0	Remo
A	Gremio	1 - 2	Palmeiras
A	Gremio	1 - 2	Vasco d Gama
H	Gremio	2 - 0	Vitoria

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Botafogo

Gremio

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

4 / 6

5 / 6

Clean sheets

1 / 6

2 / 6

BOT

GRE

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Botafogo
Botafogo	3 - 2
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	3 - 4	Gremio
	2 - 5	Gremio
	0 - 1	Gremio
Botafogo	2 - 1

Gremio

Botafogo

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 7

5 / 7

Clean sheets

2 / 7

1 / 7

BOT

GRE

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Gremio
Gremio	5 - 3
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	1 - 2	Botafogo
	0 - 2	Botafogo
Gremio	3 - 1
Gremio	3 - 0
Gremio	4 - 0

Goal Statistics

Botafogo's fans will be hoping for goals on Wednesday night, not least because Gremio have conceded in each of their last 11 Serie A matches. A PG of 1.6 for F. da Silva Maia Carvalho's side suggests that run should continue.

	Botafogo 14th	Gremio 16th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.6 goals	0.9 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 21% 1 33% 2 26% 3 13% 4+ There is a 79% probability that Botafogo will score 1 or more goals	0 41% 1 37% 2 17% 3 4+ There is a 78% probability of Gremio scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+21 Botafogo have scored 21% more goals at home than predicted	-27 Gremio have scored 27% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.9 average goals scored	0.8 average goals scored
	1.5 conceded	1.6 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season

22%

better

BOT

GRE

view stats

Games scored	20		17
Failed to score	6		9
Scored first	12		7
Goals scored	38		28
Avg. goals scored	1.5		1.1
Avg. shots per game	11		8
Avg. shots per goal	7		8
Conversion rate for	13		13
Avg. XG for	1.2		1
KickOff rating		+22%

BOT

GRE

better

view stats

Games conceded	22		21
Clean sheets	4		5
Conceded first	12		16
Goals conceded	41		35
Avg. goals conceded	1.6		1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded	11		12
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		9
Conversion rate against	14%		11%
Avg. XG against	1.5		1.6
KickOff rating		+7%

Botafogo v Gremio Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Botafogo Serie A squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
23	7	5	6
A Telles	A Cabral	A Telles	N Ferraresi

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Vitinho DEF	24	1	2	3 -
A Telles DEF	23	3	5	4 -
?. Montoro FWD	23		3	5 -
M Martins FWD	21	4		2 -
A Cabral FWD	21	7	1	3 1
N Ferraresi DEF	20	1		6 -
C Medina MID	19	1		4 1
Danilo MID	19	7	2	1 -
Edenilson MID	16	3	2	3 -
L Jaume FWD	16	1	1	2 -
J Santos FWD	14	1		2 -
K. Barria FWD	14	1	1	3 -
E. Justino DEF	12	1		3 -
M Ponte DEF	12		1	4 -
J Herrera MID	12	1		-
V. de Melo Moura MID	11	1		4 -
Allan MID	11			3 -
M Marçal DEF	10			4 1
Danilo FWD	6		1	-
Warleson GLK	4			1 -
G Batista GLK	4			-
L Lemos DEF	4			2 -
Paulinho DEF	2			-
J Mejia DEF	1			-
D Andrade MID	1			-
T Soares FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
7	24	5	7
A Cabral	A Cabral	A Telles	Vitinho

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A Cabral FWD	7	24	1	3
Danilo MID	7	13	2	7
M Martins FWD	4	20
A Telles DEF	3	3	5	6
Edenilson MID	3	5	2	2
Vitinho DEF	1	1	2	7
N Ferraresi DEF	1	3		1
C Medina MID	1	4		1
L Jaume FWD	1	3	1	4
J Santos FWD	1	6
K. Barria FWD	1	6	1	1
E. Justino DEF	1	2
J Herrera MID	1	6
V. de Melo Moura MID	1	3
?. Montoro FWD		10	3	4
M Ponte DEF			1
Allan MID				2
M Marçal DEF		3		1
Danilo FWD		4	1	2
L Lemos DEF		1
Paulinho DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
907	48	116
N Ferraresi	N Ferraresi	A Cabral

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
N Ferraresi DEF	907	48	105
Danilo MID	766	33	67
Vitinho DEF	669	45	94
?. Montoro FWD	617	18	101
A Telles DEF	599	25	59
C Medina MID	597	22	71
M Martins FWD	390	22	72
V. de Melo Moura MID	341	19	49
E. Justino DEF	339	18	48
Allan MID	303	14	23
A Cabral FWD	300	11	116
Edenilson MID	249	6	22
M Ponte DEF	234	12	36
M Marçal DEF	202	11	20
J Herrera MID	120	3	18
L Jaume FWD	115	14	32
L Lemos DEF	106	6	16
J Santos FWD	99	3	41
G Batista GLK	87
Warleson GLK	84		4
Danilo FWD	74	1	11
K. Barria FWD	58	6	38
Paulinho DEF	31	2	2
D Andrade MID	31	2	2
J Mejia DEF	16		1
T Soares FWD	6		1

Gremio Serie A squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	10	4	6
Weverton	C Vinícius	C Pavón	C Pavón

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
C Vinícius FWD	25	10	1	4 -
Weverton GLK	24		1	2 -
C Pavón FWD	23	2	4	6 -
F Amuzu FWD	22	1	3	-
J Enamorado FWD	21		3	3 -
Tetê FWD	21	2		1 -
E Mola MID	19	1	1	4 -
G Martins DEF	17	2	2	5 -
J Nardoni MID	17	1	1	2 -
M Braithwaite FWD	17			-
P. Crisostomo Pinheiro DEF	15		1	6 -
C Paulista DEF	10			1 -
Marlon DEF	10	1	1	3 -
Wagner DEF	10			2 1
Dodi MID	8			2 -
F Balbuena DEF	7			-
M Villasanti MID	7	1		1 -
D Santos DEF	6	1		2 -
W. Gomes da Silva Santos DEF	6	1		2 -
J Pedro DEF	6			-
W Kannemann DEF	5			4 -
M Rocha DEF	5			-
F Krovinovic MID	5			-
J Cabral FWD	4		1	-
D Barbosa MID	3			-
R. Freitas dos Santos MID	3			1 1
L. Guedes de Souza DEF	2			-
Roger FWD	2			-
T. Stallbaum GLK	1			1
G Grando GLK	1			-
T. Gonçalves MID	1			-
M Nascimento FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
10	23	4	5
C Vinícius	C Vinícius	C Pavón	C Pavón

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
C Vinícius FWD	10	23	1	1
C Pavón FWD	2	7	4	5
Tetê FWD	2	12
G Martins DEF	2	5	2	1
F Amuzu FWD	1	9	3	5
E Mola MID	1	4	1
J Nardoni MID	1	3	1
Marlon DEF	1	3	1	2
M Villasanti MID	1	3
D Santos DEF	1	5
W. Gomes da Silva Santos DEF	1	1
Weverton GLK			1
J Enamorado FWD		3	3	2
M Braithwaite FWD		1
P. Crisostomo Pinheiro DEF		3	1	2
C Paulista DEF				1
F Krovinovic MID		1
J Cabral FWD		1	1
L. Guedes de Souza DEF		1
Roger FWD		1		1
M Nascimento FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
841	38	101
E Mola	C Pavón	C Pavón

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
E Mola MID	841	30	76
C Pavón FWD	836	38	101
G Martins DEF	793	21	76
Weverton GLK	679	1	11
Tetê FWD	502	15	72
Wagner DEF	456	11	24
F Amuzu FWD	407	7	54
Marlon DEF	387	31	47
J Nardoni MID	373	18	55
F Balbuena DEF	363	8	21
P. Crisostomo Pinheiro DEF	343	23	40
M Villasanti MID	320	11	26
W. Gomes da Silva Santos DEF	319	8	27
C Paulista DEF	261	11	28
F Krovinovic MID	259	5	7
D Santos DEF	242	7	28
J Enamorado FWD	221	25	72
W Kannemann DEF	202	7	13
C Vinícius FWD	185	3	61
J Pedro DEF	122	3	12
M Braithwaite FWD	107	6	26
Dodi MID	92	4	7
M Rocha DEF	90	2	5
L. Guedes de Souza DEF	87	4	6
J Cabral FWD	58	1	6
D Barbosa MID	58	1	5
R. Freitas dos Santos MID	44	2	7
G Grando GLK	27
T. Gonçalves MID	26
T. Stallbaum GLK	17		1
Roger FWD	9	1	1
M Nascimento FWD	2		3