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Sao Paulo v Gremio : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 18th May, 01:00 BST, Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, São Paulo

Gustavo Enrique Domingo Quinteros Desábato is aiming for a crucial away win in the Serie A on Sunday morning, as he takes his Gremio side to the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo to visit Sao Paulo and Luis Francisco Zubeldía. Our predictions for each betting market are based on the past 20 games each side has played (at home, away or overall) with weighting applied to top teams. All the stats and graphics are tailored for the selected market. Head-to-head stats for this fixture are also given where our data allows. Odds are provided directly from from the UK's biggest bookmakers.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

Our calculations suggest that it's fairly unlikely that this match will serve up 4+ goals, and the odds and stats align with KickOff's predictive algorithm on this one. Sao Paulo and Gremio have rarely treated their fans to a high volume of goals of late, whether that be in Serie A individually or in their head-to-head duals. So, in the absence of a compelling favourite win or double chance market, we're suggesting under 3.5 goals. You can go for that at a best price of 1.17.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Sao Paulo are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 58% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.62.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Sao Paulo
58%
8/13-
Draw
25%
27/10
3%
-
Gremio
17%
17/4
5%
-
Sao Paulo 1-0
16%
4/1
5%
-
Sao Paulo 2-0
12%
11/2
8%
-
Draw 1-1
11%
13/2-
Draw 0-0
10%
13/2
15%
-
Sao Paulo 2-1
9%
8/1
5%
-
Gremio 1-0
7%
9/1-
Sao Paulo 3-0
7%
11/1-
Sao Paulo 3-1
5%
16/1
11%
-
Gremio 2-1
4%
18/1
10%
-
Draw 2-2
3%
25/1-
Gremio 2-0
3%
25/1-
Sao Paulo 4-0
3%
25/1-
Sao Paulo 4-1
2%
33/1
17%
-
Sao Paulo 3-2
2%
40/1-
Gremio 3-1
1%
50/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
7/5
8%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
59%
8/15
3%
-
Home 1st Goal
57%
4/9-
Away 1st Goal
37%
5/2
7%
-
No 1st Goal
6%
13/2
15%
-
BTTS - Yes
41%
11/8
9%
-
BTTS - No
59%
8/15
6%
-
BTTS - Home Win
19%
15/4
5%
-
BTTS - Draw
15%
5/1
8%
-
BTTS - Away Win
6%
12/1
13%
-
Home/draw
83%
1/6
3%
-
Away/draw
42%
5/4-
Home/away
75%
2/7-
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
1/2
2%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
33%
13/8
5%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
20%
4/1-
Under 3.5 Goals
80%
1/6-
Over 4.5 Goals
9%
10/1-
Under 4.5 Goals
91%
1/20-
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
22/1
12%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
1/80-
Over 0.5 Goals
90%
1/12
3%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
10%
13/2
15%
-
Home DNB
75%
1/4
2%
-
Away DNB
35%
11/4
6%
-
Sao Paulo win to nil
38%
5/4
2%
-
Gremio win to nil
11%
7/1-
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo
32%
8/5-
Sao Paulo / Gremio
2%
40/1
20%
-
Sao Paulo / Draw
5%
14/1
12%
-
Draw / Sao Paulo
21%
3/1-
Draw / Gremio
7%
10/1-
Draw / Draw
17%
15/4
6%
-
Gremio / Sao Paulo
3%
28/1-
Gremio / Gremio
8%
9/1
9%
-
Gremio / Draw
4%
18/1-
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
11
Gremio have not won in 11 consecutive away league games
Sao Paulo 10TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
31
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
12
Draw
5
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sao Paulo0 - 0Fortaleza
Sao Paulo2 - 1Santos
Sao Paulo1 - 1Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo0 - 0S. Recife
Sao Paulo1 - 2Juventude
Sao Paulo2 - 2A Mineiro
Sao Paulo2 - 1Athletico PR
Sao Paulo3 - 0Vasco d Gama
Sao Paulo3 - 1Corinthians
Sao Paulo1 - 3Internacional
Sao Paulo2 - 1Vitoria
Sao Paulo1 - 0Atletico Go
Sao Paulo1 - 0Flamengo
Sao Paulo2 - 2Botafogo
Sao Paulo1 - 0Gremio
Sao Paulo2 - 0Bragantino
Sao Paulo3 - 1Bahia
Sao Paulo2 - 1Criciuma
Sao Paulo0 - 1Cuiaba
Sao Paulo2 - 0Cruzeiro
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
6
Draw
9
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HSao Paulo0 - 0Fortaleza
ASao Paulo1 - 1Ceara
HSao Paulo2 - 1Santos
ASao Paulo2 - 2Botafogo
HSao Paulo1 - 1Cruzeiro
ASao Paulo0 - 0A Mineiro
HSao Paulo0 - 0S. Recife
ASao Paulo1 - 2Botafogo
HSao Paulo1 - 2Juventude
ASao Paulo1 - 2Gremio
HSao Paulo2 - 2A Mineiro
ASao Paulo1 - 1Bragantino
HSao Paulo2 - 1Athletico PR
ASao Paulo3 - 0Bahia
ASao Paulo1 - 1Criciuma
HSao Paulo3 - 0Vasco d Gama
ASao Paulo0 - 2Cuiaba
HSao Paulo3 - 1Corinthians
HSao Paulo1 - 3Internacional
ASao Paulo1 - 0Cruzeiro
Gremio 12TH
20 league games
Away
11
Overall
Goals: Scored
19
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
W
3
Draw
8
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Vitoria1 - 1Gremio
Mirassol4 - 1Gremio
Ceara2 - 0Gremio
Vitoria1 - 1Gremio
Cruzeiro1 - 1Gremio
Palmeiras1 - 0Gremio
Fluminense2 - 2Gremio
Internacional1 - 0Gremio
A Mineiro2 - 1Gremio
Botafogo0 - 0Gremio
Bragantino2 - 2Gremio
Criciuma0 - 1Gremio
Cuiaba1 - 3Gremio
Athletico PR0 - 2Gremio
Corinthians2 - 2Gremio
Sao Paulo1 - 0Gremio
Juventude3 - 0Gremio
Atletico Go1 - 1Gremio
Fortaleza1 - 0Gremio
Flamengo2 - 1Gremio
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
29
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
5
Draw
7
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HGremio1 - 0Santos
AGremio1 - 1Vitoria
HGremio1 - 1Internacional
AGremio1 - 4Mirassol
HGremio0 - 2Flamengo
AGremio0 - 2Ceara
HGremio2 - 1A Mineiro
HGremio0 - 3Corinthians
AGremio1 - 1Vitoria
HGremio2 - 1Sao Paulo
AGremio1 - 1Cruzeiro
HGremio2 - 2Juventude
AGremio0 - 1Palmeiras
AGremio2 - 2Fluminense
HGremio3 - 1Atletico Go
AGremio0 - 1Internacional
AGremio1 - 2A Mineiro
HGremio3 - 1Fortaleza
AGremio0 - 0Botafogo
HGremio1 - 2Criciuma
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Sao Paulo have beaten Gremio in 3 consecutive home league meetings
6
Sao Paulo have not lost to Gremio in 6 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Sao Paulo since 2018
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Goals: Scored
7
2
Games: Scored
4 / 6
2 / 6
Clean sheets
4 / 6
2 / 6
SAO
3
D
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo1 - 0
Sao Paulo3 - 0
Sao Paulo2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Gremio since 2018
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
13
5
Games: Scored
6 / 6
4 / 6
Clean sheets
2 / 6
0 / 6
SAO
1
GRE
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Gremio
Gremio2 - 1
Gremio2 - 1
Gremio3 - 0
1 - 2Sao Paulo
Gremio3 - 0
Gremio2 - 1
Goal Statistics

Sao Paulo's fans will be hoping for goals on Sunday morning, not least because Gremio have conceded in each of their last 17 Serie A games. A PG of 1.6 for L. Zubeldía's side suggests that run should continue.

A truly awful PG of just 0.7 should cause concerns for Gremio fans, as should a 5 Serie A games run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

Sao Paulo 10th Gremio 12th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.6
goals
0.7
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
There is a 79% probability that Sao Paulo will score 1 or more goals
0
48%
1
35%
2
13%
3
4+
There is a 83% probability of Gremio scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+4
Sao Paulo’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-2
Gremio’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.6
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.4
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/294535/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Sao Paulo
PG (predicted goals)
Gremio
1.6
0.7
Attack rating
0%
better
SAO
GRE
view stats
Games scored4
4
Failed to score3
2
Scored first3
3
Goals scored6
5
Avg. goals scored0.9
0.7
Avg. shots per game8
7
Avg. shots per goal10
10
Conversion rate for10
10
Avg. XG for1.1
0.9
KickOff rating
0%
Defence rating
52%
better
SAO
GRE
view stats
Games conceded4
6
Clean sheets3
0
Conceded first1
3
Goals conceded5
11
Avg. goals conceded0.7
1.6
Avg. shots/game conceded9
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded13
5
Conversion rate against8%
20%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.6
KickOff rating
+52%

Sao Paulo v Gremio Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
7323
RafaelFerreiraFerreiraE Díaz
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Rafael GLK7
1
-
Alisson MID7
2
-
Ferreira FWD732
2
-
A Silva FWD721
2
-
N Ferraresi  DEF6
-
A Franco DEF6
1
-
C Soares DEF61
1
-
E Díaz DEF6
3
-
M. Alves Nascimento MID61
3
-
L. dos Santos Ferreira MID6
1
-
M Antônio MID6
3
-
Luciano FWD6
-
Wendell DEF5
-
R Tressoldi DEF4
-
D Bobadilla MID4
2
-
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD41
-
I Vinícius  DEF3
1
-
Sabino DEF3
1
-
R Arboleda DEF3
1
-
Rodrigo MID3
2
-
J Calleri FWD3
1
L Moura FWD1
-
Gremio Serie A squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
7113
T VolpiJemersonWagnerEdenilson
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
T Volpi GLK7
1
-
Wagner DEF71
1
-
Jemerson DEF71
2
-
Edenilson MID71
3
-
M Villasanti MID6
3
-
F Cristaldo MID6
-
Camilo MID6
-
M Monsalve MID5
1
-
Dodi MID5
1
-
M Braithwaite FWD51
2
-
L Esteves DEF4
-
J Pedro DEF4
-
F Amuzu MID4
1
-
I. Schlemper MID4
2
-
C Olivera FWD41
1
-
C Pavón FWD4
1
-
André FWD4
-
D Martínez FWD411
1
-
A Guzmán FWD3
-
V Lopes DEF2
-
R Ely DEF2
-
G Cuéllar MID2
-
G Grando GLK1
1
1
W Kannemann DEF1
1
-
J Lucas DEF1
-
Nathan MID1
-