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Excelsior v Ajax : Eredivisie match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 1st Feb, 11:15 BST, Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Fred Grim takes his Ajax side to the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in the Eredivisie on Sunday morning, with Ruben den Uil's Excelsior their challengers. Our predictions are based on in-depth statistical analysis of both teams, across seventeen major markets. Data shown and the odds change with each market, and head to head (H2H) statistics are included for all.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Eredivisie Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Both teams to score

Both Ajax and Excelsior fans may have some reason for celebration ahead as their teams go head-to-head, with our prediction of both teams to score looking a much better pick than any bet on the full time result market. The two sides are more than capable of finding the net, as is borne out by the stats and past head-to-head data below. Even the bookies odds are not finding much to pick between the sides, with equal threat among their respective squads. Both teams to score is our top tip.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 49% chance of Ajax coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Excelsior 28%	17/4 21%	-
Draw 23%	3/1 5%	-
Ajax 49%	3/5 9%	-
Draw 1-1 10%	7/1 7%	-
Ajax 2-1 9%	15/2	-
Ajax 1-0 8%	17/2 5%	-
Ajax 2-0 7%	17/2 5%	-
Excelsior 2-1 7%	16/1 13%	-
Draw 2-2 6%	12/1 8%	-
Ajax 3-1 6%	11/1 8%	-
Excelsior 1-0 6%	18/1 12%	-
Ajax 3-0 4%	12/1 13%	-
Draw 0-0 4%	16/1	-
Ajax 3-2 4%	20/1 11%	-
Excelsior 2-0 4%	28/1 12%	-
Excelsior 3-1 3%	33/1 17%	-
Excelsior 3-2 3%	33/1 17%	-
Ajax 4-1 3%	20/1 9%	-
Over 2.5 Goals 62%	4/7	-
Under 2.5 Goals 38%	27/20	-
Home 1st Goal 45%	6/4 5%	-
Away 1st Goal 52%	8/15 3%	-
No 1st Goal 2%	16/1	-
BTTS - Yes 62%	8/13 3%	-
BTTS - No 38%	6/5 2%	-
BTTS - Home Win 16%	7/1 14%	-
BTTS - Draw 19%	15/4 6%	-
BTTS - Away Win 27%	2/1 3%	-
Home/draw 51%	13/10 15%	-
Away/draw 72%	1/6 3%	-
Home/away 77%	2/9 2%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 83%	1/6	-
Under 1.5 Goals 17%	4/1	-
Over 3.5 Goals 39%	11/8	-
Under 3.5 Goals 61%	8/15	-
Over 4.5 Goals 22%	3/1	-
Under 4.5 Goals 78%	2/9	-
Over 5.5 Goals 10%	7/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 90%	1/12	-
Over 0.5 Goals 96%	1/40	-
Under 0.5 Goals 4%	16/1	-
Home DNB 44%	11/4 15%	-
Away DNB 65%	1/4 6%	-
Excelsior win to nil 12%	10/1 10%	-
Ajax win to nil 22%	9/4 7%	-
Excelsior / Excelsior 10%	7/1 14%	-
Excelsior / Ajax 4%	18/1	-
Excelsior / Draw 6%	14/1	-
Draw / Excelsior 8%	10/1 16%	-
Draw / Ajax 18%	15/4 5%	-
Draw / Draw 12%	6/1 8%	-
Ajax / Excelsior 2%	33/1 17%	-
Ajax / Ajax 33%	6/4 5%	-
Ajax / Draw 6%	12/1	-

Win / draw / win Eredivisie table

Excelsior have played 19 matches so far this season and are in 14th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

14 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 9 games, drawn 1 and won 4. Excelsior have conceded 28 goals, scored 12, failed to score in 4 matches and kept 2 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Excelsior have played 10 games at home, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 5 fixtures. They have scored 10 goals, conceded 12 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score 2 times in home league games.

Ajax lay in 3rd place on 34 points in the Eredivisie league table having played 19 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 17 games against teams below them in the table, winning 8, drawing 6 and losing 3 games. They have scored 33 goals and kept 3 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Ajax have conceded 24 goals and have failed to score in 1 match.

Away league performance

Ajax have played 9 away games, winning 3, drawing 5 and losing 1 game. They have scored an average of 2.2 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.9 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Excelsior Ajax
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	PSV	19	17	1	1	36	52	l 1-2F	l 5-1A	May 2	d 2-2A
2	Feyenoord	19	11	3	5	20	36	l 1-2F	Mar 15	w 2-0F	Mar 22
3	Ajax	19	9	7	3	11	34	Feb 1	w 1-2F	-	-
4	NEC	18	9	5	4	15	32	Apr 4	l 5-0A	Feb 21	d 2-2A
5	Groningen	19	9	4	6	5	31	l 0-2A	May 2	w 2-0F	Mar 7
6	Twente	19	7	8	4	7	29	w 1-0F	Jan 24	Apr 4	w 2-3A
7	AZ Alkmaar	19	8	5	6	2	29	Feb 14	d 1-1A	l 0-2A	Feb 8
8	S.Rotterdam	19	9	2	8	-10	29	l 0-1A	May 17	Mar 14	d 3-3F
9	Heerenveen	19	6	6	7	1	24	Mar 7	l 2-1F	d 1-1F	May 17
10	Utrecht	18	6	5	7	4	23	Apr 26	l 4-1A	May 10	l 2-1A
11	PEC Zwolle	19	6	5	8	-15	23	w 2-1F	Apr 12	w 3-1F	Mar 1
12	Fortuna	19	6	4	9	-5	22	w 1-0F	Feb 20	Feb 14	w 1-3A
13	GA Eagles	19	4	9	6	-3	21	Mar 1	l 2-0A	d 2-2F	d 2-2F
14	Excelsior	19	6	3	10	-15	21	-	-	l 1-2A	Feb 1
15	FC Volendam	19	4	5	10	-12	17	May 10	w 1-2F	Jan 24	d 1-1A
16	Telstar	19	3	7	9	-8	16	d 2-2A	d 2-2A	w 2-0F	w 2-3F
17	NAC	19	3	5	11	-11	14	w 1-0F	Feb 6	w 2-1F	Apr 25
18	Heracles	19	4	2	13	-22	14	l 1-2F	Mar 20	w 2-0F	Apr 11

	UEFA Champions League
	UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
	UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
	UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play Off
	Relegation Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Excelsior	2 - 2	Telstar
Excelsior	2 - 1	PEC Zwolle
Excelsior	0 - 2	Groningen
Excelsior	1 - 0	NAC
Excelsior	1 - 2	Heracles
Excelsior	1 - 0	Fortuna
Excelsior	1 - 2	PSV
Excelsior	0 - 1	S.Rotterdam
Excelsior	1 - 0	Twente
Excelsior	1 - 2	Feyenoord
Excelsior	4 - 0	Heracles
Excelsior	0 - 3	NEC
Excelsior	4 - 0	FC Volendam
Excelsior	0 - 2	PSV
Excelsior	1 - 1	Waalwijk
Excelsior	1 - 2	Vitesse
Excelsior	0 - 3	Twente
Excelsior	1 - 1	Utrecht
Excelsior	3 - 0	Heerenveen
Excelsior	1 - 1	GA Eagles

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Excelsior	1 - 1	AZ Alkmaar
H	Excelsior	2 - 2	Telstar
A	Excelsior	1 - 5	PSV
H	Excelsior	2 - 1	PEC Zwolle
H	Excelsior	0 - 2	Groningen
H	Excelsior	1 - 0	NAC
A	Excelsior	2 - 1	Ajax
H	Excelsior	1 - 2	Heracles
A	Excelsior	2 - 2	Telstar
A	Excelsior	0 - 2	GA Eagles
H	Excelsior	1 - 0	Fortuna
A	Excelsior	1 - 2	Heerenveen
H	Excelsior	1 - 2	PSV
A	Excelsior	2 - 1	FC Volendam
H	Excelsior	0 - 1	S.Rotterdam
H	Excelsior	1 - 0	Twente
A	Excelsior	1 - 4	Utrecht
H	Excelsior	1 - 2	Feyenoord
A	Excelsior	0 - 5	NEC
A	Excelsior	0 - 4	Feyenoord

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Draw

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Telstar	2 - 3	Ajax
NEC	2 - 2	Ajax
Fortuna	1 - 3	Ajax
Utrecht	2 - 1	Ajax
Twente	2 - 3	Ajax
S.Rotterdam	3 - 3	Ajax
PSV	2 - 2	Ajax
FC Volendam	1 - 1	Ajax
GA Eagles	2 - 2	Ajax
Groningen	2 - 2	Ajax
Utrecht	4 - 0	Ajax
Willem II	1 - 2	Ajax
PSV	0 - 2	Ajax
PEC Zwolle	0 - 1	Ajax
Almere City	0 - 1	Ajax
Fortuna	0 - 2	Ajax
Heerenveen	0 - 2	Ajax
S.Rotterdam	0 - 2	Ajax
AZ Alkmaar	2 - 1	Ajax
NEC	1 - 2	Ajax

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Ajax	2 - 2	GA Eagles
A	Ajax	3 - 2	Telstar
A	Ajax	2 - 2	NEC
H	Ajax	2 - 0	Feyenoord
A	Ajax	3 - 1	Fortuna
H	Ajax	2 - 0	Groningen
H	Ajax	1 - 2	Excelsior
A	Ajax	1 - 2	Utrecht
H	Ajax	1 - 1	Heerenveen
A	Ajax	3 - 2	Twente
H	Ajax	0 - 2	AZ Alkmaar
A	Ajax	3 - 3	S.Rotterdam
H	Ajax	2 - 1	NAC
A	Ajax	2 - 2	PSV
H	Ajax	3 - 1	PEC Zwolle
A	Ajax	1 - 1	FC Volendam
H	Ajax	2 - 0	Heracles
A	Ajax	2 - 2	GA Eagles
H	Ajax	2 - 0	Telstar
H	Ajax	2 - 0	Twente

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Ajax have not lost to Excelsior in 6 consecutive away league meetings

Excelsior

Ajax

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 6

6 / 6

Clean sheets

0 / 6

1 / 6

AJA

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Excelsior
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	1 - 4	Ajax
	1 - 7	Ajax
	1 - 2	Ajax
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	0 - 2	Ajax

Ajax

Excelsior

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 7

5 / 7

Clean sheets

2 / 7

0 / 7

EXC

AJA

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Ajax
	1 - 2	Excelsior
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Ajax	7 - 1
Ajax	6 - 2
Ajax	3 - 1
Ajax	1 - 0
Ajax	3 - 0

Goal Statistics

Ajax have been consistent in front of goal of late, finding the net in 10 consecutive Eredivisie games. Their PG of 1.8 against Excelsior on Sunday suggests that run is likely to continue.

	Excelsior 13th	Ajax 3rd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.3 goals	1.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 26% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 74% probability that Excelsior will score 1 or more goals	0 16% 1 29% 2 27% 3 17% 4+ 12% There is a 84% probability that Ajax will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-16 Excelsior have scored 16% fewer goals at home than predicted	+3 Ajax’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.3 average goals scored	1.9 average goals scored
	1.3 conceded	1.4 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Eredivisie - 2025/2026 season

EXC

AJA

34%

better

view stats

Games scored	14		18
Failed to score	4		1
Scored first	10		11
Goals scored	19		37
Avg. goals scored	1		1.9
Avg. shots per game	8		11
Avg. shots per goal	8		6
Conversion rate for	12		18
Avg. XG for	1.4		1.7
KickOff rating		+34%

EXC

AJA

12%

better

view stats

Games conceded	15		15
Clean sheets	3		4
Conceded first	8		8
Goals conceded	34		26
Avg. goals conceded	1.8		1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded	11		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		7
Conversion rate against	16%		14%
Avg. XG against	2		1.4
KickOff rating		+12%

Excelsior v Ajax Eredivisie lLine ups will show here when available.

Excelsior Eredivisie squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
19	6	2	5
C Widell	N Naujoks	R Meissen	A Zagre

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
R Meissen DEF	19		2	3 -
I Bronkhorst DEF	19	1		4 -
C Widell DEF	19			2 -
G Regt FWD	19	2	1	3 -
D Fernandes FWD	19	1	2	-
S Gassel GLK	17			-
M Duinen FWD	17	1	1	1 -
A Zagre DEF	16	1		4 1
I Yegoian MID	16	3	2	1 -
N Naujoks MID	16	6		2 -
A Carlén MID	15		1	3 -
J. Armantrading FWD	13			1 -
S Wlodarczyk FWD	12	2	1	-
L Schouten DEF	10	1		-
S Mitrovic FWD	9			-
N. Martens DEF	8		1	-
S Janssen DEF	6		1	-
S. Hendrikx DEF	6			1
S. Middendorp MID	6			1
C. Nadje MID	6			2 -
L Hartjes MID	6			1 -
D. Yun FWD	6	1		1 -
Z. Booth FWD	3			-
C Raatsie GLK	2			-
M Tielemans MID	2			-
T. Holla GLK	1			-
N. Groen FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	11	2	6
N Naujoks	D Fernandes	R Meissen	G Regt

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
N Naujoks MID	6	10
I Yegoian MID	3	9	2	4
G Regt FWD	2	8	1	6
S Wlodarczyk FWD	2	6	1	1
I Bronkhorst DEF	1	3		2
D Fernandes FWD	1	11	2	6
M Duinen FWD	1	3	1	2
A Zagre DEF	1	3		1
L Schouten DEF	1	2
D. Yun FWD	1	2
R Meissen DEF		4	2	2
C Widell DEF		2
S Gassel GLK				1
A Carlén MID		1	1
J. Armantrading FWD		2		2
S Mitrovic FWD		2		1
N. Martens DEF			1
S Janssen DEF		2	1	2
S. Hendrikx DEF		3
Z. Booth FWD		1
M Tielemans MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
925	38	100
C Widell	A Zagre	I Bronkhorst

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
C Widell DEF	925	20	69
S Gassel GLK	760		5
I Bronkhorst DEF	701	27	100
R Meissen DEF	683	15	45
A Zagre DEF	510	38	71
I Yegoian MID	508	24	68
D Fernandes FWD	494	12	62
A Carlén MID	406	32	61
G Regt FWD	368	15	50
N Naujoks MID	326	28	83
S. Hendrikx DEF	223	9	20
L Hartjes MID	209	6	17
N. Martens DEF	160	10	18
J. Armantrading FWD	127	4	38
L Schouten DEF	125	8	18
C Raatsie GLK	113	1	1
S Wlodarczyk FWD	105	2	22
M Duinen FWD	88	7	35
C. Nadje MID	86	4	17
M Tielemans MID	77	1	2
S Mitrovic FWD	66	2	14
S Janssen DEF	65	3	8
S. Middendorp MID	56	5	11
T. Holla GLK	40
Z. Booth FWD	29	1	1
D. Yun FWD	20	2	6
N. Groen FWD	4

Ajax Eredivisie squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
16	8	7	4
Y Baas	M Godts	M Godts	Y Regeer

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
D Klaassen MID	19	4	2	1 -
O Gloukh MID	19	5	5	2 -
M Godts FWD	17	8	7	2 -
Y Baas DEF	16	2	1	2 1
V Jaroš GLK	15			1 -
A Gaaei DEF	15		3	2 -
L Rosa DEF	15			1 -
K Taylor MID	15	2	4	3 -
Y Regeer MID	15		2	4 -
R Moro FWD	14		1	1 -
W Weghorst FWD	14	6	1	4 -
K Itakura DEF	13	1		1 -
O Wijndal DEF	13	1		3 -
J. Mokio MID	13	1		-
O Edvardsen FWD	12			2 -
J Sutalo DEF	11			1 -
K Fitz-Jim MID	9			2 -
R. Bounida MID	9		1	2 -
K Dolberg FWD	9	3		1 -
S Berghuis FWD	8	1	2	-
A. Bouwman DEF	5	1		2 -
S. Steur MID	5			-
D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu FWD	5			-
R Pasveer GLK	4			-
J. McConnell MID	4			-
G. Alders DEF	3			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	19	7	8
M Godts	M Godts	M Godts	M Godts

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Godts FWD	8	19	7	8
W Weghorst FWD	6	12	1	3
O Gloukh MID	5	18	5	3
D Klaassen MID	4	6	2	2
K Dolberg FWD	3	9		1
Y Baas DEF	2	5	1	3
K Taylor MID	2	11	4	6
K Itakura DEF	1	3		1
O Wijndal DEF	1	3		1
J. Mokio MID	1	2
S Berghuis FWD	1	10	2	2
A. Bouwman DEF	1	1		1
A Gaaei DEF		4	3	6
L Rosa DEF		4
Y Regeer MID			2	1
R Moro FWD		5	1	4
O Edvardsen FWD		1		1
K Fitz-Jim MID		1		1
R. Bounida MID		2	1	1
S. Steur MID		2
D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1295	33	84
Y Baas	Y Regeer	Y Baas

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Y Baas DEF	1295	31	84
K Itakura DEF	759	12	50
Y Regeer MID	653	33	61
L Rosa DEF	640	24	52
K Taylor MID	631	16	51
V Jaroš GLK	614		6
J Sutalo DEF	610	6	35
O Gloukh MID	593	20	63
M Godts FWD	524	12	69
O Wijndal DEF	469	16	48
A Gaaei DEF	439	7	29
D Klaassen MID	419	26	48
S Berghuis FWD	321	5	12
A. Bouwman DEF	311	6	9
W Weghorst FWD	306	7	80
K Fitz-Jim MID	249	10	14
O Edvardsen FWD	190	7	38
R Pasveer GLK	182	1	1
J. Mokio MID	176	11	23
R Moro FWD	176	6	14
S. Steur MID	149	10	17
R. Bounida MID	133	6	22
G. Alders DEF	106	11	16
K Dolberg FWD	92	3	23
J. McConnell MID	59	5	8
D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu FWD	17	2	11