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MK Dons v Luton Town : League One match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 17th Oct, 12:30 BST, Stadium mk, Milton Keynes

Saturday lunch time sees Paul Warne’s MK Dons and Jack Wilshere’s Luton Town go up against one another in a League One battle at the Stadium mk. Our predictions are based on extensive statistical analysis of both teams, across 17 of the main markets. The data and the odds change with each market, and head-to-head stats are included across the board.


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Best Tip: Over 2.5 goals

As loyal fans of Luton get ready for this clash, they certainly have reason to expect an exciting match. After analysing the relevant statistics and past head-to-head (H2H) records, it looks as though over 2.5 goals will be a worthy bet, as both sides know they have goals in them and either could win. The prediction and odds are both pointing in the same direction: over 2.5 goals is the best bet here.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
MK Dons
30%
3.40
17%
-
Draw
21%
3.50
3%
-
Luton
49%
2.00
9%
-
Luton 2-1
9%
9.00
5%
-
Draw 1-1
8%
7.00-
Draw 2-2
7%
12.00-
MK Dons 2-1
7%
12.00
9%
-
Luton 3-1
6%
15.00
12%
-
Luton 2-0
5%
11.00
8%
-
Luton 1-0
5%
9.50
5%
-
Luton 3-2
5%
21.00
9%
-
MK Dons 1-0
4%
13.00
8%
-
Luton 3-0
4%
19.00
10%
-
MK Dons 3-2
4%
29.00
12%
-
MK Dons 3-1
4%
26.00
24%
-
MK Dons 2-0
3%
21.00
24%
-
Luton 4-1
3%
29.00
15%
-
Draw 3-3
3%
41.00-
Over 2.5 Goals
71%
1.67
2%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
29%
2.15
2%
-
Home 1st Goal
47%
2.20
7%
-
Away 1st Goal
52%
1.73
4%
-
No 1st Goal
1%
13.00-
BTTS - Yes
70%
1.57-
BTTS - No
30%
2.25-
BTTS - Home Win
20%
6.00
20%
-
BTTS - Draw
19%
4.33-
BTTS - Away Win
31%
3.60
10%
-
Home/draw
51%
1.80
8%
-
Away/draw
70%
1.30
7%
-
Home/away
79%
1.29
1%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
88%
1.20-
Under 1.5 Goals
12%
4.33-
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
2.63-
Under 3.5 Goals
50%
1.44-
Over 4.5 Goals
31%
5.00-
Under 4.5 Goals
69%
1.17-
Over 5.5 Goals
17%
10.00-
Under 5.5 Goals
83%
1.06-
Over 0.5 Goals
97%
1.03
1%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
3%
15.00
15%
-
Home DNB
45%
2.50
19%
-
Away DNB
64%
1.50
10%
-
MK Dons win to nil
10%
7.00
17%
-
Luton win to nil
18%
4.00
8%
-
MK Dons / MK Dons
15%
5.50
16%
-
MK Dons / Luton
4%
21.00
9%
-
MK Dons / Draw
6%
13.00-
Draw / MK Dons
10%
8.00
14%
-
Draw / Luton
15%
5.50
8%
-
Draw / Draw
14%
6.00-
Luton / MK Dons
3%
26.00-
Luton / Luton
26%
3.25
10%
-
Luton / Draw
6%
13.00-
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Win / draw / win League One table

MK Dons have played 8 matches so far this season and are in 23rd position in the league. MK Dons are winless in the 7 games they have played against teams above them in the table and have conceded in 5 of those games. MK Dons are having a poor run against away teams, having not won a match so far this season. They have also not scored in 1 of those game.

Performance against teams above them in the league

7 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 1 game, drawn 6 and won zero. MK Dons have conceded 12 goals, scored 8, failed to score in 2 matches and kept 2 clean sheets.

Home league performance

MK Dons have played 4 games at home, winning 0, drawing 3 and losing 1 fixture. They have scored 3 goals, conceded 7 goals, kept 1 clean sheet and failed to score 1 time in home league games.

Luton lay in 14th place on 11 points in the League One league table having played 8 matches. Luton are unbeaten in 2 games against teams below them in the league and kept zero clean sheets out of 2 games.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 2 games against teams below them in the table, winning 1, drawing 1 and losing 0 games. They have scored 6 goals and kept 0 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Luton have conceded 3 goals and scored in every game.

Away league performance

Luton have played 4 away games, winning 2, drawing 0 and losing 2 games. They have scored an average of 2.8 goals per away game and conceded an average 2.8 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
MK Dons
Luton
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Plymouth10613619 
Apr 3
Dec 29
Mar 26
Jan 2
2
Bradford9522317 
May 8
Dec 1
l
 
0-1A
Apr 17
3
Stockport9513916 
Jan 9
Dec 19
w
 
2-0F
Feb 9
4
Huddersfield9441716 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 13
Apr 13
-
5
Cambridge9441316 
Dec 12
Mar 29
Nov 14
May 1
6
Reading94321115 
l
 
1-5A
Jan 1
Mar 6
w
 
3-4F
7
Oxford Utd8431715 
Mar 6
d
 
2-2A
Nov 28
Feb 27
8
Sheff Wed8431715 
Mar 26
Apr 24
Jan 9
Dec 19
9
Stevenage8332412 
Jan 23
Oct 24
Feb 20
l
 
2-1A
10
Burton10334-212 
Nov 14
Feb 27
Mar 20
Nov 21
11
Mansfield9333-212 
Mar 20
Nov 21
Feb 6
l
 
5-2A
12
AFC Wim9333-312 
Apr 17
d
 
0-00-0
Apr 3
Dec 29
13
L Orient9324211 
Dec 26
Apr 10
d
 
1-1F
Feb 13
14
Luton8323111 
Oct 17
Jan 16
-
-
15
Wycombe9243-610 
Feb 13
d
 
3-3A
Apr 24
w
 
1-4F
16
Doncaster823309 
Oct 31
Jan 30
-
Apr 27
17
Leicester8233-49 
d
 
0-00-0
Feb 6
Oct 24
Jan 23
18
Blackpool8224-18 
Jan 19
Oct 20
May 8
Dec 1
19
Peterborough9225-78 
d
 
1-1F
Feb 20
Jan 30
Oct 31
20
Barnsley8224-78 
Apr 27
-
Oct 20
Jan 19
21
Bromley8224-118 
-
Apr 13
Dec 26
Apr 10
22
Notts C8143-37 
Nov 28
May 1
d
 
2-2F
Mar 13
23
MK Dons8062-66 
-
-
Jan 16
Oct 17
24
Wigan8116-84 
Feb 9
l
 
3-1A
Dec 12
Mar 29
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
MK Dons 23RD
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
10
Draw
8
L
2
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
MK Dons1 - 5Reading
MK Dons1 - 1Peterborough
MK Dons0 - 0Leicester
MK Dons1 - 1Huddersfield
MK Dons3 - 0Tranmere
MK Dons2 - 1Bromley
MK Dons0 - 0Barrow
MK Dons1 - 3Barnet
MK Dons1 - 0Colchester
MK Dons4 - 1Harrogate
MK Dons0 - 0Crawley
MK Dons1 - 0Newport
MK Dons1 - 0Bristol R
MK Dons5 - 1Shrewsbury
MK Dons2 - 2Chesterfield
MK Dons1 - 1Notts C
MK Dons1 - 0Swindon
MK Dons1 - 1Cambridge
MK Dons2 - 1Fleetwood
MK Dons2 - 0Salford
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
7
Draw
10
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HMK Dons1 - 5Reading
AMK Dons0 - 0AFC Wim
HMK Dons1 - 1Peterborough
AMK Dons3 - 3Wycombe
AMK Dons1 - 3Wigan
HMK Dons0 - 0Leicester
HMK Dons1 - 1Huddersfield
AMK Dons2 - 2Oxford Utd
AMK Dons1 - 1Fleetwood
HMK Dons3 - 0Tranmere
AMK Dons3 - 1Crewe
HMK Dons2 - 1Bromley
AMK Dons1 - 1Oldham
HMK Dons0 - 0Barrow
AMK Dons0 - 0Salford
HMK Dons1 - 3Barnet
HMK Dons1 - 0Colchester
AMK Dons2 - 1Swindon
AMK Dons5 - 1Gillingham
HMK Dons4 - 1Harrogate
Luton 14TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
34
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
7
D
4
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Wycombe1 - 4Luton
Stevenage2 - 1Luton
Mansfield5 - 2Luton
Reading3 - 4Luton
Bolton2 - 3Luton
Rotherham0 - 2Luton
Mansfield2 - 2Luton
AFC Wim0 - 3Luton
Wycombe1 - 2Luton
Doncaster1 - 1Luton
Port Vale1 - 1Luton
Wigan1 - 0Luton
Cardiff3 - 1Luton
Huddersfield1 - 0Luton
Plymouth1 - 0Luton
Exeter1 - 0Luton
Reading3 - 2Luton
L Orient1 - 1Luton
Barnsley5 - 0Luton
Stockport0 - 3Luton
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
11
Draw
5
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ALuton4 - 1Wycombe
HLuton0 - 1Bradford
ALuton1 - 2Stevenage
HLuton1 - 1L Orient
HLuton2 - 0Stockport
ALuton2 - 5Mansfield
HLuton2 - 2Notts C
ALuton4 - 3Reading
ALuton3 - 2Bolton
HLuton2 - 1Barnsley
ALuton2 - 0Rotherham
ALuton2 - 2Mansfield
HLuton2 - 1Northampton
ALuton3 - 0AFC Wim
HLuton2 - 1Peterborough
HLuton1 - 1Stockport
HLuton3 - 2Exeter
ALuton2 - 1Wycombe
ALuton1 - 1Doncaster
HLuton2 - 3Reading
Goal Statistics

A PG of 2.1 is fairly strong for Luton Town in their clash with MK Dons, as is their run of scoring 1 goal or more in 39 consecutive League One games.

MK Dons 23rd Luton 14th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.6
goals
2.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
20%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
8%
There is a 80% probability that MK Dons will score 1 or more goals
0
12%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4+
16%
There is a 62% probability that Luton will score 2 or more goals in this match
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-12
MK Dons have scored 12% fewer goals at home than predicted
+23
Luton have scored 23% more goals when away than predicted
1.5
average goals scored
1.6
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
League One - 2026/2027 season
MK Dons
PG (predicted goals)
Luton
1.6
2.1
Attack rating
MKD
LUT
38%
better
view stats
Games scored6
7
Failed to score2
1
Scored first1
5
Goals scored9
16
Avg. goals scored1.1
2
Avg. shots per game10
9
Avg. shots per goal9
5
Conversion rate for12
21
Avg. XG for1.5
1.7
KickOff rating
+38%
Defence rating
7%
better
MKD
LUT
view stats
Games conceded6
7
Clean sheets2
1
Conceded first5
3
Goals conceded15
15
Avg. goals conceded1.9
1.9
Avg. shots/game conceded11
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
4
Conversion rate against18%
23%
Avg. XG against1.6
1.2
KickOff rating
+7%

MK Dons v Luton League One lLine ups will show here when available.

MK Dons League One squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
8613
C BramallA CollinsR WintleM Ekpiteta
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
C Bramall DEF8
2
-
C Nelson DEF81
-
R Wintle MID81
-
S Nombe FWD8
-
A Collins FWD861
2
-
C Goode DEF71
1
-
M Ekpiteta DEF71
3
-
B Wiles MID71
-
C Paterson FWD711
1
-
G Jones DEF6
-
D Barlaser MID61
-
A Gilbey MID6
2
-
C MacGillivray GLK5
-
D Crowley MID51
-
R Barnett DEF4
-
J Sanders DEF4
1
-
S Silvera FWD41
-
W Dennis GLK3
-
J Matete MID2
1
-
I. Fullah MID2
-
E. Campbell DEF1
-
R Hepburn-Murphy FWD1
-
Luton League One squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
8524
G JohnstonN WellsK PalmerL Walsh 
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
G Johnston DEF8
2
-
K Palmer MID832
1
-
L Walsh  MID8
4
-
J. Richards MID811
-
I Jones FWD8
1
-
N Wells FWD852
1
-
M Andersen DEF71
1
-
H Odoffin MID7
-
C Marshall FWD72
-
G. Kadua FWD711
2
-
J Keeley GLK6
-
H Ashby DEF6
1
1
J. Donley MID622
-
E. Lawrence FWD5
-
K Naismith DEF4
2
-
J Clark MID42
-
D. Gore MID4
3
-
J Johnson DEF3
-
T. Mendel-Idowu FWD3
-
J Shea  GLK2
-
D Cole FWD11
-