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América v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 19th Apr, 04:00 BST, Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Sunday morning sees André Soares Jardine’s América and Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich’s Toluca go head to head in a Liga MX battle at the Estadio Azteca. Stats drive the predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and flipping between them will display bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and a whole lot more besides. Odds are also provided. Click on the tabs below to find out more.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

There is 79% chance of America and Toluca no more than 3 goals combined during this Liga MX fixture according to our predictive algorithm and, without a strong favourite in the WDW market, we think that's a great tip here. Calculations are made based on 20-game form, historical head-to-head (H2H) statistics and the view of the betting market, and you can get it at top odds of 1.36.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think America are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 37% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.40.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
America 37%	7/5 2%	-
Draw 28%	23/10 3%	-
Toluca 35%	33/20	-
Draw 1-1 13%	11/2	-
America 1-0 11%	17/2 19%	-
Toluca 1-0 11%	9/1 18%	-
Draw 0-0 9%	11/1 20%	-
America 2-1 8%	17/2	-
Toluca 2-1 8%	9/1	-
America 2-0 7%	12/1 8%	-
Toluca 2-0 6%	14/1 15%	-
Draw 2-2 5%	12/1 13%	-
America 3-1 3%	18/1 10%	-
Toluca 3-1 3%	20/1 9%	-
America 3-0 3%	22/1	-
Toluca 3-0 2%	28/1	-
America 3-2 2%	25/1 10%	-
Toluca 3-2 2%	28/1 15%	-
Over 2.5 Goals 42%	17/20 8%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 58%	19/20 8%	-
Home 1st Goal 47%	10/11	-
Away 1st Goal 47%	1/1 2%	-
No 1st Goal 6%	11/1 20%	-
BTTS - Yes 48%	4/6 7%	-
BTTS - No 52%	11/10 8%	-
BTTS - Home Win 15%	15/4 5%	-
BTTS - Draw 18%	10/3 9%	-
BTTS - Away Win 14%	4/1 9%	-
Home/draw 65%	4/9	-
Away/draw 63%	8/15	-
Home/away 72%	1/3 2%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 68%	1/4 6%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 32%	11/4 15%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 21%	2/1 14%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 79%	4/11 5%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 9%	5/1 14%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 91%	1/8 3%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	12/1 24%	-
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1/25 1%	-
Over 0.5 Goals 91%	1/25 2%	-
Under 0.5 Goals 9%	11/1 20%	-
Home DNB 56%	4/5 4%	-
Away DNB 55%	10/11 5%	-
America win to nil 22%	7/2 13%	-
Toluca win to nil 21%	4/1 11%	-
America / America 21%	3/1	-
America / Toluca 3%	25/1 10%	-
America / Draw 6%	12/1 13%	-
Draw / America 14%	5/1	-
Draw / Toluca 13%	11/2	-
Draw / Draw 15%	9/2 10%	-
Toluca / America 3%	25/1	-
Toluca / Toluca 19%	10/3 4%	-
Toluca / Draw 6%	12/1 13%	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

10 / 20

Clean sheets

10 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
America	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
America	2 - 0	Mazatlan
America	1 - 2	Juarez
America	1 - 4	Tigres
America	1 - 0	Monterrey
America	2 - 0	Necaxa
America	0 - 2	A. San Luis
America	2 - 1	Monterrey
America	2 - 0	Leon
America	2 - 1	Puebla
America	3 - 0	S. Laguna
America	4 - 1	Pumas UNAM
America	1 - 2	Guadalajara
America	2 - 0	Pachuca
America	1 - 0	Queretaro
America	3 - 1	Tijuana
America	0 - 0	Toluca
America	2 - 1	Cruz Azul
America	2 - 0	Pachuca
America	5 - 0	Mazatlan

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	America	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	America	1 - 1	S. Laguna
A	America	0 - 1	Pumas UNAM
H	America	2 - 0	Mazatlan
A	America	2 - 1	Queretaro
H	America	1 - 2	Juarez
H	America	1 - 4	Tigres
A	America	4 - 0	Puebla
A	America	0 - 1	Guadalajara
H	America	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	America	2 - 0	Necaxa
A	America	0 - 0	Pachuca
H	America	0 - 2	A. San Luis
A	America	0 - 0	Tijuana
H	America	2 - 1	Monterrey
A	America	0 - 2	Monterrey
A	America	0 - 2	Toluca
H	America	2 - 0	Leon
A	America	2 - 2	Mazatlan
H	America	2 - 1	Puebla

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Won

Draw

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Queretaro	1 - 0	Toluca
Pachuca	1 - 1	Toluca
Pumas UNAM	2 - 3	Toluca
Necaxa	0 - 3	Toluca
Puebla	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	0 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	0 - 1	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	1 - 2	Toluca
Atlas	0 - 0	Toluca
Tijuana	0 - 0	Toluca
Leon	2 - 4	Toluca
Guadalajara	0 - 3	Toluca
A. San Luis	1 - 3	Toluca
Cruz Azul	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	0 - 2	Toluca
S. Laguna	2 - 4	Toluca
America	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 1	Toluca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Queretaro
A	Toluca	1 - 1	Pachuca
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Atlas
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Juarez
A	Toluca	3 - 2	Pumas UNAM
H	Toluca	2 - 0	Guadalajara
A	Toluca	3 - 0	Necaxa
H	Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Monterrey
H	Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
A	Toluca	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

America have not lost to Toluca in 10 consecutive home league meetings

America have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive home league meetings with Toluca

America

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

9 / 10

5 / 10

Clean sheets

5 / 10

1 / 10

AME

FIXTURE HISTORY AT America
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
America	3 - 0
America	2 - 0
America	5 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
America	1 - 0
America	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
America	3 - 2
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Toluca

America

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

10 / 12

9 / 12

Clean sheets

3 / 12

2 / 12

AME

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	2 - 0
Toluca	2 - 0
	0 - 2	America
Toluca	4 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Toluca	2 - 1
Toluca	3 - 1
Toluca	3 - 1
	0 - 1	America
Toluca	3 - 2
Draw	2 - 2	Draw

Goal Statistics

América's defensive record is very strong, A. Soares Jardine's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive Liga MX matches. An average PG rating of 1.2 for Toluca makes sense in this context.

	America 7th	Toluca 5th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.2 goals	1.2 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 30% 1 36% 2 22% 3 9% 4+ There is a 66% probability that America will score no more than 1 goal	0 31% 1 36% 2 21% 3 8% 4+ There is a 67% probability that Toluca will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-7 America’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-13 Toluca have scored 13% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.9 average goals scored	1.4 average goals scored
	0.8 conceded	0.7 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

AME

TOL

better

view stats

Games scored	25		27
Failed to score	7		9
Scored first	18		19
Goals scored	49		69
Avg. goals scored	1.5		1.9
Avg. shots per game	11		13
Avg. shots per goal	7		7
Conversion rate for	14		15
Avg. XG for	1.4		1.9
KickOff rating		+6%

AME

TOL

better

view stats

Games conceded	21		23
Clean sheets	11		13
Conceded first	12		12
Goals conceded	33		32
Avg. goals conceded	1		0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	7		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		9
Conversion rate against	15%		11%
Avg. XG against	0.8		1
KickOff rating		+6%

America v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

America Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
29	10	6	7
C Borja	B Rodríguez	B Rodríguez	S Ramos

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
B Rodríguez FWD	33	10	6	3 -
C Borja DEF	31		2	4 -
I Reyes DEF	30		1	2 -
L Malagón GLK	26			2 -
K Álvarez DEF	26	1	1	1 -
Érick Sánchez MID	26	2		3 1
J. Zúñiga Murillo FWD	26	4	1	2 -
S Ramos DEF	25			7 -
R Juárez DEF	24	2		2 1
A Gutiérrez MID	23	1	2	1 -
A Zendejas FWD	23	8	5	4 -
J Santos MID	22		2	3 -
V Dávila FWD	22	3		2 -
I Violante FWD	19	1	3	2 -
P. Salas FWD	17	2	2	2 -
A Campo MID	16	1		1 -
R Dourado MID	13		1	4 -
R Veiga MID	10	2	2	2 -
Lima MID	8	1	1	1
H Martín FWD	8		1	-
R Cota GLK	7			1 -
D. Espinoza Acosta DEF	7	1		1 -
M García DEF	6			-
A Montoya DEF	5			3 -
T. Espinosa Dovat DEF	3			1 -
R Orquin DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
10	28	6	10
B Rodríguez	B Rodríguez	B Rodríguez	B Rodríguez

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
B Rodríguez FWD	10	28	6	10
A Zendejas FWD	8	20	5	10
J. Zúñiga Murillo FWD	4	8	1	4
V Dávila FWD	3	9		3
Érick Sánchez MID	2	15		3
R Juárez DEF	2	7		1
P. Salas FWD	2	6	2	2
R Veiga MID	2	11	2	1
K Álvarez DEF	1	9	1	2
A Gutiérrez MID	1	4	2	3
I Violante FWD	1	5	3	3
A Campo MID	1	2
Lima MID	1	3	1
D. Espinoza Acosta DEF	1	1		1
C Borja DEF		5	2	4
I Reyes DEF		5	1	2
J Santos MID		1	2	2
R Dourado MID		2	1
H Martín FWD		3	1
M García DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1702	53	126
I Reyes	C Borja	B Rodríguez

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
I Reyes DEF	1702	40	100
C Borja DEF	1405	53	108
S Ramos DEF	1287	34	113
J Santos MID	990	28	55
A Zendejas FWD	823	26	108
Érick Sánchez MID	814	25	74
B Rodríguez FWD	809	22	126
R Juárez DEF	756	15	68
L Malagón GLK	705	2	11
K Álvarez DEF	680	33	96
R Dourado MID	624	30	65
A Gutiérrez MID	493	14	42
A Campo MID	334	14	26
R Veiga MID	296	8	32
M García DEF	275	4	12
V Dávila FWD	222	11	48
D. Espinoza Acosta DEF	206	12	30
R Cota GLK	194	1	9
P. Salas FWD	190	20	47
I Violante FWD	189	16	31
J. Zúñiga Murillo FWD	176	12	45
Lima MID	166	6	14
A Montoya DEF	128	5	10
H Martín FWD	84	2	18
R Orquin DEF	73	6	7
T. Espinosa Dovat DEF	48		7

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
31	21	10	12
F Pereira	Paulinho	A Vega	J Gallardo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Pereira DEF	34	3		9 -
J Uriarte MID	33	7	4	2 -
N Castro MID	32	3	8	2 -
F Romero MID	32	1	2	4 -
Paulinho FWD	32	21	4	5 -
J Gallardo DEF	31	5	3	12 -
D Barbosa DEF	30	1	1	8 -
M Ruíz MID	29	3	4	9 -
E López DEF	26			2 -
S Simón DEF	24		3	3 -
B Méndez DEF	23	1		3 1
H González GLK	21			2 -
Helinho FWD	21	9	6	4 -
A Vega FWD	18	4	10	3 -
L García GLK	16			1 -
A Briseño DEF	16	2	1	-
F Arce MID	12			1 1
O. Virgen FWD	11	1	1	1 -
P Pérez FWD	11		1	-
S Córdova MID	10		2	1 -
J Price MID	9	1	2	-
M Isaís DEF	8			1 -
Luan DEF	7			1 -
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	6			-
A Bermúdez FWD	3			1 -
V Camarena MID	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
21	41	10	11
Paulinho	Paulinho	A Vega	M Ruíz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	21	41	4	7
Helinho FWD	9	17	6	11
J Uriarte MID	7	17	4	10
J Gallardo DEF	5	13	3	8
A Vega FWD	4	11	10	10
F Pereira DEF	3	9		4
N Castro MID	3	27	8	8
M Ruíz MID	3	15	4	11
A Briseño DEF	2	4	1	1
F Romero MID	1	2	2	1
D Barbosa DEF	1	5	1	4
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
J Price MID	1	6	2	2
E López DEF		3		1
S Simón DEF		1	3	7
F Arce MID		3
P Pérez FWD		3	1	2
S Córdova MID		4	2	2
Luan DEF		1
F. Rossi Donazar FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1980	73	203
F Pereira	D Barbosa	M Ruíz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1980	38	151
F Romero MID	1699	63	102
M Ruíz MID	1522	71	203
J Gallardo DEF	1302	58	139
N Castro MID	1240	35	107
E López DEF	1036	23	49
J Uriarte MID	1003	23	68
B Méndez DEF	929	22	58
S Simón DEF	774	30	65
D Barbosa DEF	715	73	124
H González GLK	588	2	11
A Vega FWD	558	16	95
Helinho FWD	503	15	78
L García GLK	446		3
A Briseño DEF	405	9	52
Paulinho FWD	396	17	76
P Pérez FWD	240	14	39
F Arce MID	220	22	31
Luan DEF	213	4	19
M Isaís DEF	189	8	24
J Price MID	125	5	24
S Córdova MID	107	4	16
V Camarena MID	52
O. Virgen FWD	40	3	7
A Bermúdez FWD	29	6	7
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	16	1	9