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Toluca v Tijuana : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 14th Feb, 03:00 BST, Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo

Washington Sebastián Abreu Gallo will be hoping for a crucial away win in the Liga MX on Saturday morning, as he takes his Tijuana side to the Estadio Nemesio Díez to visit Toluca and Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich. Below you'll find predictions for all the biggest betting markets, supporting statistics including head-to-heads, and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers. Access it all via the tabs below.

Best Tip: Toluca to win

We think there's an outright winner in this game, and it's Toluca. Their recent form statistics show they're capable at home, and historical head-to-head (H2H) data proves they can get the job done against Tijuana too. The odds point towards Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich's side coming out on top in the win / draw / win market, and that's what we're predicting for Saturday morning too.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Toluca are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 68% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.30.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Toluca 68%	27/100	3/10
Draw 18%	4/1	4/1
Tijuana 15%	9/1	6/1
Toluca 2-1 10%	8/1	13/2
Toluca 2-0 9%	13/2	6/1
Draw 1-1 8%	9/1	8/1
Toluca 3-1 8%	10/1	17/2
Toluca 1-0 7%	8/1	13/2
Toluca 3-0 7%	15/2	7/1
Draw 2-2 5%	18/1	14/1
Toluca 4-1 5%	16/1	12/1
Toluca 4-0 5%	12/1	10/1
Tijuana 2-1 4%	25/1	16/1
Toluca 3-2 4%	22/1	18/1
Tijuana 1-0 3%	25/1	16/1
Draw 0-0 3%	16/1	14/1
Toluca 4-2 2%	33/1	25/1
Toluca 5-1 2%	28/1	20/1
Over 2.5 Goals 68%	1/2	10/21
Under 2.5 Goals 32%	6/4	11/8
Home 1st Goal 58%	1/3	3/10
Away 1st Goal 41%	9/4	27/10
No 1st Goal 2%	16/1	14/1
BTTS - Yes 59%	4/5	17/20
BTTS - No 41%	19/20	17/20
BTTS - Home Win 36%	7/4	7/4
BTTS - Draw 14%	5/1	11/2
BTTS - Away Win 9%	14/1	11/1
Home/draw 85%	1/16	1/12
Away/draw 32%	12/5	11/5
Home/away 82%	1/6	1/7
Over 1.5 Goals 86%	1/7	1/7
Under 1.5 Goals 14%	9/2	7/2
Over 3.5 Goals 46%	6/5	6/5
Under 3.5 Goals 54%	8/13	11/20
Over 4.5 Goals 27%	11/4	13/5
Under 4.5 Goals 73%	1/4	2/9
Over 5.5 Goals 14%	7/1	11/2
Under 5.5 Goals 86%	1/12	1/14
Over 0.5 Goals 97%	1/40	1/300
Under 0.5 Goals 3%	16/1	12/1
Home DNB 80%	1/12	1/10
Away DNB 27%	7/1	5/1
Toluca win to nil 32%	5/4	-
Tijuana win to nil 6%	16/1	-
Toluca / Toluca 44%	5/6	17/20
Toluca / Tijuana 2%	50/1	40/1
Toluca / Draw 5%	16/1	14/1
Draw / Toluca 19%	3/1	10/3
Draw / Tijuana 5%	18/1	14/1
Draw / Draw 10%	15/2	13/2
Tijuana / Toluca 4%	18/1	16/1
Tijuana / Tijuana 6%	14/1	10/1
Tijuana / Draw 4%	20/1	16/1

Win / draw / win form

Toluca have drawn 3 consecutive league games

Tijuana have drawn 3 consecutive league games

Toluca have not lost in 12 consecutive home league games

Tijuana have not lost in 5 consecutive league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
Toluca	2 - 0	America
Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
Toluca	4 - 0	Queretaro
Toluca	3 - 1	Mazatlan
Toluca	6 - 2	Monterrey
Toluca	3 - 1	Puebla
Toluca	1 - 1	Pumas UNAM
Toluca	3 - 4	Tigres
Toluca	3 - 1	Necaxa
Toluca	2 - 0	America
Toluca	3 - 0	Tigres
Toluca	2 - 1	Monterrey
Toluca	2 - 2	Cruz Azul
Toluca	2 - 1	S. Laguna
Toluca	3 - 2	Pachuca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Monterrey
H	Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
A	Toluca	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Atlas
H	Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	4 - 0	Queretaro
A	Toluca	4 - 2	Leon
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Mazatlan
H	Toluca	6 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	3 - 0	Guadalajara

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Monterrey	2 - 2	Tijuana
Queretaro	1 - 2	Tijuana
Tigres	5 - 0	Tijuana
Pumas UNAM	4 - 1	Tijuana
Tigres	2 - 0	Tijuana
Puebla	4 - 3	Tijuana
S. Laguna	1 - 0	Tijuana
A. San Luis	1 - 1	Tijuana
Pachuca	0 - 2	Tijuana
Mazatlan	2 - 2	Tijuana
America	3 - 1	Tijuana
S. Laguna	0 - 4	Tijuana
Mazatlan	0 - 2	Tijuana
Monterrey	1 - 2	Tijuana
Pachuca	4 - 1	Tijuana
Leon	2 - 1	Tijuana
Puebla	2 - 0	Tijuana
Guadalajara	2 - 1	Tijuana
Tigres	4 - 0	Tijuana
America	1 - 1	Tijuana

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Tijuana	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Tijuana	2 - 2	Monterrey
H	Tijuana	1 - 1	A. San Luis
A	Tijuana	2 - 1	Queretaro
H	Tijuana	0 - 0	America
A	Tijuana	0 - 5	Tigres
H	Tijuana	3 - 0	Tigres
H	Tijuana	3 - 1	Juarez
H	Tijuana	2 - 0	Atlas
A	Tijuana	1 - 4	Pumas UNAM
A	Tijuana	0 - 2	Tigres
H	Tijuana	0 - 0	Toluca
A	Tijuana	3 - 4	Puebla
H	Tijuana	2 - 2	Monterrey
H	Tijuana	2 - 0	Cruz Azul
A	Tijuana	0 - 1	S. Laguna
H	Tijuana	5 - 0	Leon
A	Tijuana	1 - 1	A. San Luis
H	Tijuana	3 - 0	Necaxa
H	Tijuana	3 - 3	Guadalajara

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Toluca have beaten Tijuana in 3 consecutive home league meetings

Toluca

Tijuana

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 7

2 / 7

Clean sheets

5 / 7

0 / 7

TOL

TIJ

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	4 - 0
Toluca	2 - 0
Toluca	3 - 1
	1 - 2	Tijuana
Toluca	2 - 0
Toluca	2 - 0
Toluca	3 - 0

Tijuana

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 8

Clean sheets

2 / 8

TOL

TIJ

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Tijuana
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	2 - 4	Toluca
Tijuana	2 - 1
Draw	3 - 3	Draw
	0 - 2	Toluca
Tijuana	3 - 2
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Tijuana	2 - 0

Goal Statistics

Toluca's defensive record is very strong, A. Mohamed Matijevich's men having conceded 1 or less in 7 consecutive Liga MX matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.0 for Tijuana makes sense in this context.

	Toluca	Tijuana
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	2.4 goals	1.0 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 9% 1 21% 2 26% 3 21% 4+ 23% There is a 70% probability that Toluca will score 2 or more goals in this match	0 35% 1 37% 2 19% 3 4+ There is a 72% probability that Tijuana will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+16 Toluca have scored 16% more goals at home than predicted	+15 Tijuana have scored 15% more goals when away than predicted
	2.5 average goals scored	1.3 average goals scored
	1.2 conceded	2.1 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

better

TOL

TIJ

view stats

Games scored	20		19
Failed to score	8		6
Scored first	13		15
Goals scored	55		40
Avg. goals scored	2		1.6
Avg. shots per game	13		10
Avg. shots per goal	6		6
Conversion rate for	15		16
Avg. XG for	1.8		1.4
KickOff rating		+2%

better

TOL

TIJ

view stats

Games conceded	18		15
Clean sheets	10		10
Conceded first	10		7
Goals conceded	26		33
Avg. goals conceded	0.9		1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded	8		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	9		8
Conversion rate against	12%		13%
Avg. XG against	0.9		1.3
KickOff rating		+2%

Toluca v Tijuana Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
25	16	10	10
N Castro	Paulinho	A Vega	J Gallardo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
N Castro MID	28	3	8	1 -
F Pereira DEF	27	2		7 -
J Uriarte MID	26	5	5	1 -
F Romero MID	26		2	3 -
M Ruíz MID	25	3	2	6 -
J Gallardo DEF	24	4	2	10 -
Paulinho FWD	24	16	2	3 -
D Barbosa DEF	22		1	6 -
E López DEF	21			1 -
S Simón DEF	19		3	2 -
B Méndez DEF	19	1		2 1
H González GLK	18			2 -
Helinho FWD	15	8	5	4 -
A Vega FWD	14	4	10	3 -
A Briseño DEF	13	1	1	-
L García GLK	11			1 -
O. Virgen FWD	11	1	1	1 -
F Arce MID	8			1 -
M Isaís DEF	5			1 -
P Pérez FWD	5			-
S Córdova MID	4			1 -
J Price MID	3			-
A Bermúdez FWD	3			1 -
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	2			-
Luan DEF	1			-
V Camarena MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
16	31	10	11
Paulinho	Paulinho	A Vega	Helinho

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	16	31	2	5
Helinho FWD	8	15	5	11
J Uriarte MID	5	13	5	9
J Gallardo DEF	4	10	2	7
A Vega FWD	4	9	10	9
N Castro MID	3	26	8	8
M Ruíz MID	3	15	2	7
F Pereira DEF	2	6		2
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
A Briseño DEF	1	1	1	1
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
F Romero MID		1	2	1
D Barbosa DEF		2	1	2
E López DEF		3
S Simón DEF		1	3	6
F Arce MID		2
S Córdova MID		2
J Price MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1584	62	183
F Pereira	M Ruíz	M Ruíz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1584	29	123
F Romero MID	1350	53	84
M Ruíz MID	1306	62	183
N Castro MID	1065	34	101
J Gallardo DEF	1061	44	106
E López DEF	790	12	32
B Méndez DEF	755	16	49
J Uriarte MID	730	19	54
S Simón DEF	659	28	58
H González GLK	509	2	11
D Barbosa DEF	493	56	93
A Vega FWD	440	8	70
Helinho FWD	376	11	54
A Briseño DEF	302	7	34
L García GLK	298		3
Paulinho FWD	293	12	52
F Arce MID	107	10	17
M Isaís DEF	106	8	18
P Pérez FWD	94	4	16
Luan DEF	69	1	4
S Córdova MID	50	2	4
O. Virgen FWD	40	3	7
V Camarena MID	30
A Bermúdez FWD	29	6	7
J Price MID	28	1	5
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	1		3

Tijuana Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	8	6	9
A Rodríguez	K Castañeda	K Castañeda	J Porozo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
A Rodríguez GLK	25			2 -
K Castañeda MID	25	8	6	2 -
A Preciado FWD	25	3	2	4 -
A Gómez DEF	24	1		4 -
J Porozo DEF	24	2		9 -
R Zárate MID	24	1	5	5 -
I Olmeda MID	24			8 -
J Grijalva DEF	23		6	4 -
R Fernández DEF	22	1	2	7 -
D Blanco FWD	21	1	1	1 1
U Bilbao DEF	17	2		3 -
M Ghezouani FWD	17	4		4 1
G. Mora Zambrano MID	16	5	1	1 -
F Boya MID	15	6		3 -
P Ortíz DEF	10		1	2 -
S Nicholson FWD	9	1		-
K Escamilla MID	7			1 -
I Rivero MID	5			1 -
J Martínez FWD	3			-
Ángel Zapata MID	2			-
D Firenze FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	25	6	11
K Castañeda	K Castañeda	K Castañeda	K Castañeda

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
K Castañeda MID	8	25	6	11
F Boya MID	6	10		4
G. Mora Zambrano MID	5	10	1	4
M Ghezouani FWD	4	6
A Preciado FWD	3	10	2	4
J Porozo DEF	2	2
U Bilbao DEF	2	4
A Gómez DEF	1	2
R Zárate MID	1	7	5	8
R Fernández DEF	1	2	2	3
D Blanco FWD	1	4	1	1
S Nicholson FWD	1	7		2
I Olmeda MID		4
J Grijalva DEF		3	6	4
P Ortíz DEF			1	1
I Rivero MID		4

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1235	61	123
I Olmeda	R Fernández	A Preciado

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
I Olmeda MID	1235	51	82
J Porozo DEF	1006	36	102
A Rodríguez GLK	990	2	12
A Gómez DEF	871	39	87
U Bilbao DEF	822	30	72
K Castañeda MID	776	21	76
R Fernández DEF	775	61	120
J Grijalva DEF	563	38	66
R Zárate MID	359	28	72
G. Mora Zambrano MID	356	10	51
A Preciado FWD	317	32	123
F Boya MID	298	22	92
M Ghezouani FWD	239	12	98
P Ortíz DEF	234	14	26
I Rivero MID	145	9	19
D Blanco FWD	123	18	51
K Escamilla MID	58	1	3
S Nicholson FWD	55		28
J Martínez FWD	11		4
Ángel Zapata MID	8	1	1
D Firenze FWD	3