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Necaxa v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 22nd Feb, 01:00 BST, Estadio Victoria de Aguascalient, Aguascalientes

the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalient crowd welcome Toluca's travelling contingent on Sunday morning, as Martín Varini Di Zioli's Necaxa face Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich's troops in the Liga MX. All of the key statistics for the tie, including head-to-heads, predictions and the best odds across 17 of the biggest betting markets are included in this betting preview. It's all designed to help you make a well informed, intelligent bet.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals as a betting market simply means there will only be a maximum of 2 goals scored in total by Necaxa and Toluca during the standard 90 mins. It's a bet the statistics below and the odds are both leaning towards here, and an outcome that we've seen head to head clashes between these sides has produced in the past. Without a strong favourite to win the game, our best bet prediction for this one is under 2.5.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 45% chance of Toluca coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Necaxa 27%	15/4 22%	16/5
Draw 28%	3/1 6%	27/10
Toluca 45%	4/6 11%	13/20
Toluca 1-0 14%	7/1	6/1
Draw 1-1 13%	13/2 7%	6/1
Draw 0-0 11%	11/1 8%	10/1
Necaxa 1-0 10%	14/1 15%	10/1
Toluca 2-0 9%	15/2 11%	13/2
Toluca 2-1 8%	15/2	13/2
Necaxa 2-1 6%	14/1 15%	11/1
Necaxa 2-0 5%	25/1 24%	18/1
Toluca 3-0 4%	12/1 13%	10/1
Draw 2-2 4%	14/1 15%	12/1
Toluca 3-1 4%	12/1 13%	10/1
Necaxa 3-1 2%	33/1 17%	20/1
Toluca 3-2 2%	22/1	16/1
Necaxa 3-0 1%	50/1 24%	28/1
Toluca 4-0 1%	25/1 24%	18/1
Over 2.5 Goals 38%	3/4 4%	7/10
Under 2.5 Goals 62%	21/20 4%	19/20
Home 1st Goal 42%	8/5 5%	17/10
Away 1st Goal 51%	8/15 6%	8/15
No 1st Goal 7%	11/1 8%	10/1
BTTS - Yes 44%	3/4 3%	8/11
BTTS - No 56%	1/1 2%	1/1
BTTS - Home Win 10%	15/2 21%	13/2
BTTS - Draw 17%	15/4 6%	19/5
BTTS - Away Win 16%	12/5 9%	23/10
Home/draw 55%	11/10 13%	11/10
Away/draw 73%	2/11 6%	1/5
Home/away 72%	2/9 3%	1/4
Over 1.5 Goals 65%	2/9	2/9
Under 1.5 Goals 35%	3/1	27/10
Over 3.5 Goals 18%	7/4 8%	17/10
Under 3.5 Goals 82%	2/5 3%	4/11
Over 4.5 Goals 7%	9/2	19/5
Under 4.5 Goals 93%	1/7	1/8
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	10/1	8/1
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1/20	1/33
Over 0.5 Goals 89%	1/25	1/50
Under 0.5 Goals 11%	11/1 8%	9/1
Home DNB 47%	5/2 27%	23/10
Away DNB 65%	2/7 8%	2/7
Necaxa win to nil 17%	8/1 29%	-
Toluca win to nil 29%	2/1 12%	-
Necaxa / Necaxa 11%	7/1 23%	6/1
Necaxa / Toluca 4%	20/1	16/1
Necaxa / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1
Draw / Necaxa 8%	9/1 18%	8/1
Draw / Toluca 17%	15/4 5%	18/5
Draw / Draw 14%	5/1	19/4
Toluca / Necaxa 3%	33/1 17%	28/1
Toluca / Toluca 31%	13/8 12%	6/4
Toluca / Draw 6%	14/1 15%	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Toluca have not lost in 7 consecutive league games

Toluca have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive away league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Necaxa	4 - 1	A. San Luis
Necaxa	0 - 1	Atlas
Necaxa	0 - 2	Monterrey
Necaxa	4 - 1	S. Laguna
Necaxa	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
Necaxa	0 - 1	Pachuca
Necaxa	1 - 0	Puebla
Necaxa	1 - 1	Juarez
Necaxa	0 - 1	Leon
Necaxa	1 - 1	America
Necaxa	3 - 1	Queretaro
Necaxa	0 - 0	Tigres
Necaxa	3 - 5	Pachuca
Necaxa	2 - 0	Queretaro
Necaxa	2 - 1	Leon
Necaxa	1 - 2	Tigres
Necaxa	3 - 1	Mazatlan
Necaxa	3 - 2	S. Laguna
Necaxa	1 - 3	Cruz Azul
Necaxa	3 - 2	Guadalajara

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

19 / 20

Clean sheets

1 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Necaxa	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Necaxa	4 - 1	A. San Luis
A	Necaxa	0 - 2	America
H	Necaxa	0 - 1	Atlas
H	Necaxa	0 - 2	Monterrey
A	Necaxa	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Necaxa	1 - 1	Mazatlan
H	Necaxa	4 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Necaxa	4 - 3	A. San Luis
H	Necaxa	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Necaxa	3 - 5	Tigres
H	Necaxa	0 - 1	Pachuca
A	Necaxa	2 - 3	Atlas
A	Necaxa	1 - 3	Guadalajara
H	Necaxa	1 - 0	Puebla
H	Necaxa	1 - 1	Juarez
A	Necaxa	0 - 3	Tijuana
A	Necaxa	0 - 3	Monterrey
H	Necaxa	0 - 1	Leon
A	Necaxa	1 - 1	Pumas UNAM

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

10 / 20

Clean sheets

10 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Puebla	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	0 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	0 - 1	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	1 - 2	Toluca
Atlas	0 - 0	Toluca
Tijuana	0 - 0	Toluca
Leon	2 - 4	Toluca
Guadalajara	0 - 3	Toluca
A. San Luis	1 - 3	Toluca
Cruz Azul	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	0 - 2	Toluca
S. Laguna	2 - 4	Toluca
America	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 1	Toluca
Monterrey	3 - 2	Toluca
A. San Luis	0 - 1	Toluca
Atlas	2 - 3	Toluca
Puebla	0 - 3	Toluca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Monterrey
H	Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
A	Toluca	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Atlas
H	Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	4 - 0	Queretaro
A	Toluca	4 - 2	Leon
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Mazatlan
H	Toluca	6 - 2	Monterrey

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Toluca have beaten Necaxa in 3 consecutive league meetings

Toluca have not lost to Necaxa in 10 consecutive league meetings

Necaxa

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 7

7 / 7

Clean sheets

0 / 7

1 / 7

NEC

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Necaxa
	1 - 3	Toluca
Draw	3 - 3	Draw
	1 - 3	Toluca
	0 - 1	Toluca
Necaxa	3 - 2
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Toluca

Necaxa

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 8

5 / 8

Clean sheets

3 / 8

1 / 8

NEC

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	3 - 1
Toluca	5 - 2
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Toluca	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Toluca	2 - 0
	2 - 3	Necaxa
Toluca	3 - 2

Goal Statistics

	Necaxa 13th	Toluca 4th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	0.9 goals	1.3 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 40% 1 37% 2 17% 3 4+ There is a 77% probability of Necaxa scoring 1 goal or less	0 28% 1 36% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 64% probability that Toluca will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+3 Necaxa’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-12 Toluca have scored 12% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.7 average goals scored	1.5 average goals scored
	1.4 conceded	0.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

NEC

TOL

20%

better

view stats

Games scored	16		21
Failed to score	7		8
Scored first	7		14
Goals scored	33		56
Avg. goals scored	1.4		1.9
Avg. shots per game	11		13
Avg. shots per goal	8		7
Conversion rate for	13		15
Avg. XG for	1.4		1.8
KickOff rating		+20%

NEC

TOL

39%

better

view stats

Games conceded	22		18
Clean sheets	1		11
Conceded first	16		10
Goals conceded	40		26
Avg. goals conceded	1.7		0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		9
Conversion rate against	17%		11%
Avg. XG against	1.6		0.9
KickOff rating		+39%

Necaxa v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Necaxa Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
23	5	4	4
E Unsain	T Badaloni	F. Rossano Erchuk	K Rosero

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
E Unsain GLK	23			2 -
K Rosero FWD	23	2	3	4 -
T Badaloni FWD	23	5	2	1 -
F. Rossano Erchuk DEF	21		4	2 -
R Monreal FWD	21	3	1	2 1
C Calderón DEF	19	1	1	4 -
A Peña DEF	19	1		-
A Oliveros DEF	13	1		1 -
R Pineda FWD	10			1 -
E Lara DEF	9			2 -
L Faravelli MID	6			1 -
D Leyva MID	6		1	-
E González DEF	5			-
A Almendra MID	5			-
K Gutiérrez MID	5			1 1
J Carranza FWD	5	3		2 1
R Ruiz DEF	3			-
F. Méndez Lara DEF	1			-
J. Ruiz MID	1	1		-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	18	4	6
T Badaloni	T Badaloni	F. Rossano Erchuk	T Badaloni

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
T Badaloni FWD	5	18	2	6
R Monreal FWD	3	6	1	1
J Carranza FWD	3	4
K Rosero FWD	2	8	3	5
C Calderón DEF	1	5	1	2
A Peña DEF	1	2
A Oliveros DEF	1	1
J. Ruiz MID	1	1
F. Rossano Erchuk DEF		4	4	4
R Pineda FWD		1
L Faravelli MID		1		1
D Leyva MID		1	1	2
E González DEF				1
A Almendra MID				1
R Ruiz DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
834	28	83
A Peña	F. Rossano Erchuk	K Rosero

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Peña DEF	834	13	57
E Unsain GLK	691		8
K Rosero FWD	632	27	83
C Calderón DEF	617	28	69
A Oliveros DEF	587	7	38
E Lara DEF	344	19	35
F. Rossano Erchuk DEF	323	28	83
R Monreal FWD	254	18	67
T Badaloni FWD	236	4	76
L Faravelli MID	211	10	21
D Leyva MID	185	6	15
K Gutiérrez MID	118	3	7
R Ruiz DEF	109	8	16
A Almendra MID	97		4
R Pineda FWD	84	3	8
E González DEF	78	4	6
F. Méndez Lara DEF	37
J Carranza FWD	26	7	23
J. Ruiz MID	1

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
26	17	10	10
F Pereira	Paulinho	A Vega	J Gallardo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Pereira DEF	28	2		7 -
N Castro MID	28	3	8	1 -
J Uriarte MID	27	5	4	1 -
F Romero MID	27		2	3 -
M Ruíz MID	26	3	3	7 -
J Gallardo DEF	25	4	2	10 -
Paulinho FWD	25	17	2	3 -
D Barbosa DEF	23		1	6 -
E López DEF	21			1 -
S Simón DEF	20		3	3 -
B Méndez DEF	20	1		2 1
H González GLK	19			2 -
Helinho FWD	15	8	5	4 -
A Vega FWD	14	4	10	3 -
A Briseño DEF	13	1	1	-
L García GLK	11			1 -
O. Virgen FWD	11	1	1	1 -
F Arce MID	8			1 -
P Pérez FWD	6			-
M Isaís DEF	5			1 -
S Córdova MID	5			1 -
J Price MID	4			-
A Bermúdez FWD	3			1 -
Luan DEF	2			-
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	2			-
V Camarena MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
17	33	10	11
Paulinho	Paulinho	A Vega	Helinho

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	17	33	2	5
Helinho FWD	8	15	5	11
J Uriarte MID	5	13	4	9
J Gallardo DEF	4	11	2	7
A Vega FWD	4	9	10	9
N Castro MID	3	26	8	8
M Ruíz MID	3	15	3	8
F Pereira DEF	2	6		2
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
A Briseño DEF	1	1	1	1
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
F Romero MID		1	2	1
D Barbosa DEF		2	1	2
E López DEF		3
S Simón DEF		1	3	7
F Arce MID		2
P Pérez FWD		1		1
S Córdova MID		2
J Price MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1670	63	188
F Pereira	M Ruíz	M Ruíz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1670	30	126
F Romero MID	1433	54	87
M Ruíz MID	1383	63	188
J Gallardo DEF	1101	49	115
N Castro MID	1065	34	101
B Méndez DEF	806	17	52
E López DEF	792	12	32
J Uriarte MID	776	20	57
S Simón DEF	686	28	59
H González GLK	528	2	11
D Barbosa DEF	501	57	94
A Vega FWD	440	8	70
Helinho FWD	377	11	54
Paulinho FWD	303	12	56
A Briseño DEF	301	7	34
L García GLK	298		3
P Pérez FWD	122	5	22
F Arce MID	107	10	17
M Isaís DEF	106	8	18
Luan DEF	69	1	4
S Córdova MID	54	2	5
J Price MID	52	3	8
O. Virgen FWD	40	3	7
V Camarena MID	30
A Bermúdez FWD	29	6	7
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	1		3