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Puebla v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla

Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich takes his Toluca troops to the Estadio Cuauhtémoc in the Liga MX on Saturday morning, with Rolando Hernán Cristante Mandarino's Puebla waiting for them. Quite simply, we want you to win betting on this game. To this end, statistics for the biggest betting market have been laid out below, with head to head (H2H) records and statistically significant form streaks highlighted. The best odds are also given.

This match has now expired. Kickoff has all of the best football predictions for you to choose from, for all Liga MX Predictions. Kickoff constantly updates all 17 football betting markets to analyse and predict football scores – whether you choose football accumulator tips, both teams to score (BTTS tips), correct score, or if you are looking for free football tips – then make sure to sign up to Kickoff.co.uk today.

Puebla's next match is v Tijuana at 03:00 on Saturday 7th February
Toluca's next match is v Cruz Azul at 23:00 on Saturday 7th February

The last Mexican Liga MX meeting between Puebla and Toluca was on Saturday 31st January 2026

Mexican Liga MX

January 31st 2026

Puebla 0	0 Toluca

	PUE TOL
Shots On	1 5
Shots Off	2 11
Corners	12
Possession	30% 70%
Fouls	9 9
Yellow/red cards	2/1 3/0

Puebla	Toluca

L. Rey Mejía (K. Velasco Bonilla 46') J. Vargas Campos N. Díaz Huincales I. Moreno E. Gómez Dutra (M. Ramírez Pérez 78') E. Guerra (B. Garnica Cortéz 78') E. Lozano Solana R. Gutiérrez Hernández C. Baltazar Agraz (J. Pachuca Martinez 69') A. Organista Orozco (A. Ramírez Jiménez 46') E. Navarro	(E. López 80') B. Méndez Cittadini A. Pereira Castelnoble F. Romero (F. Rossi Donazar 61') F. Córdova Reyes (P. Uriel Perez Hernandez 80') N. Castro (J. Díaz Price 83') J. Angulo Uriarte M. Ruiz Suárez L. García Palomera S. Simón J. Gallardo Vasconcelos J. Dias Fernandes

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

Our predictive algorithm suggests there's a 79% probability of Puebla and Toluca serving up at least 2 goals in this Liga MX clash. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are factored into that calculation , and it seems the bookies favour that outcome too. This over 1.5 goals tip is available at a best price of 1.17.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 56% chance of Toluca coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Puebla 21%	4/1 8%	17/4
Draw 23%	29/10 2%	3/1
Toluca 56%	8/13 5%	10/21
Draw 1-1 11%	13/2 6%	6/1
Toluca 1-0 11%	7/1 11%	11/2
Toluca 2-1 10%	15/2	13/2
Toluca 2-0 10%	15/2 6%	11/2
Puebla 1-0 6%	14/1 11%	11/1
Toluca 3-1 6%	12/1	10/1
Draw 0-0 6%	12/1 13%	10/1
Toluca 3-0 6%	12/1	17/2
Puebla 2-1 6%	16/1 11%	14/1
Draw 2-2 5%	14/1	14/1
Puebla 2-0 3%	25/1 15%	20/1
Toluca 3-2 3%	22/1 10%	18/1
Toluca 4-1 3%	22/1 10%	16/1
Toluca 4-0 3%	22/1 10%	14/1
Puebla 3-1 2%	40/1	28/1
Over 2.5 Goals 54%	8/11 6%	8/11
Under 2.5 Goals 46%	43/40 9%	10/11
Home 1st Goal 42%	13/8	21/10
Away 1st Goal 55%	8/15 4%	4/9
No 1st Goal 3%	12/1 13%	10/1
BTTS - Yes 54%	3/4 5%	10/11
BTTS - No 46%	1/1 5%	4/5
BTTS - Home Win 11%	8/1 5%	17/2
BTTS - Draw 17%	4/1	17/4
BTTS - Away Win 26%	12/5 8%	23/10
Home/draw 44%	6/5 3%	29/20
Away/draw 79%	1/6 1%	2/15
Home/away 77%	1/4	1/5
Over 1.5 Goals 78%	2/9 4%	2/9
Under 1.5 Goals 22%	3/1 20%	5/2
Over 3.5 Goals 32%	7/4 5%	9/5
Under 3.5 Goals 68%	2/5 4%	7/20
Over 4.5 Goals 16%	9/2 15%	4/1
Under 4.5 Goals 84%	1/7 3%	1/8
Over 5.5 Goals 7%	10/1 22%	17/2
Under 5.5 Goals 93%	1/20 2%	1/40
Over 0.5 Goals 94%	1/25 1%	1/40
Under 0.5 Goals 6%	12/1 13%	9/1
Home DNB 37%	11/4 11%	16/5
Away DNB 72%	1/4 3%	2/11
Puebla win to nil 10%	9/1 9%	-
Toluca win to nil 30%	2/1	-
Puebla / Puebla 9%	15/2 5%	15/2
Puebla / Toluca 4%	20/1 11%	16/1
Puebla / Draw 5%	14/1	14/1
Draw / Puebla 8%	9/1 8%	10/1
Draw / Toluca 18%	7/2	16/5
Draw / Draw 13%	5/1 7%	5/1
Toluca / Puebla 2%	33/1 17%	33/1
Toluca / Toluca 34%	6/4 4%	5/4
Toluca / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Puebla	2 - 1	Mazatlan
Puebla	0 - 3	Cruz Azul
Puebla	4 - 3	Tijuana
Puebla	0 - 2	Guadalajara
Puebla	2 - 2	Pachuca
Puebla	2 - 4	Monterrey
Puebla	0 - 2	A. San Luis
Puebla	1 - 0	S. Laguna
Puebla	2 - 3	Atlas
Puebla	0 - 1	Necaxa
Puebla	0 - 0	Tigres
Puebla	0 - 3	Toluca
Puebla	1 - 3	Pumas UNAM
Puebla	2 - 0	Tijuana
Puebla	1 - 2	America
Puebla	0 - 1	Mazatlan
Puebla	1 - 2	A. San Luis
Puebla	1 - 0	Guadalajara
Puebla	1 - 2	Cruz Azul
Puebla	2 - 3	Juarez

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Puebla	0 - 1	Cruz Azul
H	Puebla	2 - 1	Mazatlan
A	Puebla	0 - 1	Atlas
A	Puebla	2 - 1	Leon
H	Puebla	0 - 3	Cruz Azul
A	Puebla	4 - 4	Juarez
A	Puebla	1 - 2	America
H	Puebla	4 - 3	Tijuana
A	Puebla	1 - 3	Queretaro
H	Puebla	0 - 2	Guadalajara
H	Puebla	2 - 2	Pachuca
A	Puebla	0 - 1	Necaxa
A	Puebla	1 - 3	Toluca
H	Puebla	2 - 4	Monterrey
A	Puebla	0 - 0	Pumas UNAM
H	Puebla	0 - 2	A. San Luis
A	Puebla	0 - 7	Tigres
H	Puebla	1 - 0	S. Laguna
A	Puebla	1 - 2	Mazatlan
H	Puebla	2 - 3	Atlas

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Tigres	0 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	0 - 1	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	1 - 2	Toluca
Atlas	0 - 0	Toluca
Tijuana	0 - 0	Toluca
Leon	2 - 4	Toluca
Guadalajara	0 - 3	Toluca
A. San Luis	1 - 3	Toluca
Cruz Azul	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	0 - 2	Toluca
S. Laguna	2 - 4	Toluca
America	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 1	Toluca
Monterrey	3 - 2	Toluca
A. San Luis	0 - 1	Toluca
Atlas	2 - 3	Toluca
Puebla	0 - 3	Toluca
America	3 - 0	Toluca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Monterrey
H	Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
A	Toluca	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Atlas
H	Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	4 - 0	Queretaro
A	Toluca	4 - 2	Leon
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Mazatlan
H	Toluca	6 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	3 - 0	Guadalajara
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Puebla
A	Toluca	3 - 1	A. San Luis

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Toluca have beaten Puebla in 3 consecutive league meetings

Puebla

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 7

5 / 7

Clean sheets

2 / 7

1 / 7

PUE

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Puebla
	0 - 3	Toluca
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	1 - 2	Toluca
Puebla	1 - 0
Puebla	4 - 1
Puebla	2 - 0
Puebla	2 - 1

Toluca

Puebla

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 8

6 / 8

Clean sheets

2 / 8

1 / 8

PUE

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	3 - 1
Toluca	5 - 0
	0 - 1	Puebla
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Toluca	2 - 1
Draw	4 - 4	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Toluca	2 - 0

Goal Statistics

Toluca's defensive record is very strong, A. Mohamed Matijevich's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive Liga MX matches. An average PG rating of 1.0 for Puebla makes sense in this context.

Toluca's fans will be hoping for goals on Saturday morning, not least because Puebla have conceded in each of their last 14 Liga MX games. A PG of 1.8 for A. Mohamed Matijevich's side suggests that run should continue.

	Puebla 18th	Toluca 3rd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.0 goals	1.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 36% 1 37% 2 19% 3 4+ There is a 73% probability that Puebla will score no more than 1 goal	0 16% 1 30% 2 27% 3 16% 4+ 11% There is a 84% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-21 Puebla have scored 21% fewer goals at home than predicted	-11 Toluca have scored 11% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.1 average goals scored	1.5 average goals scored
	1.9 conceded	0.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

PUE

TOL

33%

better

view stats

Games scored	12		19
Failed to score	8		7
Scored first	6		12
Goals scored	23		54
Avg. goals scored	1.2		2.1
Avg. shots per game	10		13
Avg. shots per goal	8		6
Conversion rate for	12		17
Avg. XG for	1.1		1.8
KickOff rating		+33%

PUE

TOL

38%

better

view stats

Games conceded	18		17
Clean sheets	2		9
Conceded first	13		10
Goals conceded	45		25
Avg. goals conceded	2.3		1
Avg. shots/game conceded	11		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	5		9
Conversion rate against	21%		12%
Avg. XG against	1.5		1
KickOff rating		+38%

Puebla v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Puebla Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
18	6	4	7
A Orozco	E Gómez	E Gómez	N Huincales

Line-up	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
R Gutiérrez GLK	3			1 -
I Moreno DEF	7			-
E. Navarro DEF	12			5 -
N Huincales DEF	18		1	7 -
J Vargas DEF				-
L Mejía MID	14	2		2 -
E Guerra MID				-
A Orozco MID	20	1	1	3 -
C Baltazar MID	13	3	2	-
E Gómez MID	19	6	4	1 -
E Solana FWD	15	2		2 -
Subs
J Rodríguez GLK	7			1 -
J Martinez DEF	13		1	-
Á. de la Rosa DEF	5	1		2 -
M Pérez MID	12			-
A Jiménez MID	1			-
A. Gamarra MID	13			3 1
B Garnica MID	7			-
Ángelo Araos MID	6	1		-
K Velasco FWD	2			1 -
E Torres FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	10	4	6
E Gómez	E Guerra	E Gómez	E Gómez

Line-up	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
E Gómez MID	6	10	4	6
C Baltazar MID	3	6	2	3
L Mejía MID	2	5
E Solana FWD	2	5
A Orozco MID	1	7	1	3
Subs
Á. de la Rosa DEF	1	3
Ángelo Araos MID	1	2
N Huincales DEF		2	1	1
Subs
J Martinez DEF		2	1	1
M Pérez MID		2		1
A. Gamarra MID		2
B Garnica MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
942	42	111
N Huincales	N Huincales	N Huincales

Line-up	passes	tackles	duels won
N Huincales DEF	942	42	111
A Orozco MID	635	36	81
L Mejía MID	538	25	46
E Gómez MID	385	5	68
Subs
J Martinez DEF	362	17	35
A. Gamarra MID	329	28	61
E. Navarro DEF	316	17	37
Subs
M Pérez MID	296	17	36
J Rodríguez GLK	184
C Baltazar MID	152	7	41
Subs
Á. de la Rosa DEF	152	6	16
E Solana FWD	148	10	67
I Moreno DEF	130	8	16
Subs
B Garnica MID	88	9	24
Ángelo Araos MID	82	2	7
R Gutiérrez GLK	67		1
Subs
K Velasco FWD	31		9
E Torres FWD	5		1
A Jiménez MID	1		1

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
23	15	8	9
F Pereira	Paulinho	N Castro	J Gallardo

Line-up	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L García GLK	10			1 -
S Simón DEF	17		3	2 -
B Méndez DEF	17	1		1 1
F Pereira DEF	25	2		7 -
J Gallardo DEF	22	4	1	9 -
F Romero MID	24		2	3 -
M Ruíz MID	23	3	2	5 -
S Córdova MID	2			1 -
J Uriarte MID	24	5	4	1 -
N Castro MID	26	3	8	1 -
Paulinho FWD	22	15	2	3 -
Subs
H González GLK	17			2 -
D Barbosa DEF	21		1	6 -
Luan DEF	1			-
M Isaís DEF	5			1 -
E López DEF	19			1 -
P Pérez MID	3			-
J Price MID	2			-
V Camarena MID	1			-
O. Virgen FWD	10	1	1	1 -
F. Rossi Donazar FWD				-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
15	27	8	8
Paulinho	Paulinho	N Castro	J Uriarte

Line-up	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	15	27	2	5
J Uriarte MID	5	13	4	8
J Gallardo DEF	4	10	1	6
M Ruíz MID	3	14	2	6
N Castro MID	3	24	8	8
F Pereira DEF	2	6		2
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
Subs
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
S Simón DEF			3	3
F Romero MID		1	2	1
Subs
D Barbosa DEF		2	1	2
E López DEF		2
J Price MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1435	55	165
F Pereira	D Barbosa	M Ruíz

Line-up	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1435	27	115
F Romero MID	1237	48	77
M Ruíz MID	1199	53	165
N Castro MID	1002	31	96
J Gallardo DEF	969	36	93
Subs
E López DEF	727	11	30
J Uriarte MID	669	19	51
B Méndez DEF	659	13	43
S Simón DEF	568	25	50
Subs
D Barbosa DEF	487	55	91
H González GLK	472	2	10
L García GLK	276		2
Paulinho FWD	270	11	47
Subs
M Isaís DEF	106	8	18
Luan DEF	69	1	4
P Pérez MID	66	3	9
O. Virgen FWD	40	3	7
V Camarena MID	30
J Price MID	21	1	5
S Córdova MID	20