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Toluca v Cruz Azul : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 7th Feb, 23:00 BST, Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo

Home advantage makes a difference in the Liga MX, and Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich’s Toluca will have the blessing of it on Saturday night. Nicolás Ricardo Larcamón’s Cruz Azul are their opponents at the Estadio Nemesio Díez. Statistics for our tip of are shown below, including head-to-head history. Changing the market with the tabs changes all statistics and the odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers, making it easier than ever to find the right bet for you.


Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We predict there's very little chance of a bore-draw or a narrow 1-0 win here, and instead are predicting over 1.5 goals. That means that Toluca and Cruz Azul will score a minimum of a couple of between them during 90 mins. This is based on each side's recent form stats, as well as their historic head-to-heads. We give it a probability of 79%. The bookies have it priced at 1.22.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Toluca are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 53% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.86.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Toluca
53%
43/50-
Draw
22%
27/10-
Cruz Azul
24%
3/1-
Draw 1-1
10%
6/1-
Toluca 2-1
10%
15/2-
Toluca 1-0
9%
15/2-
Toluca 2-0
8%
9/1-
Cruz Azul 2-1
6%
12/1-
Toluca 3-1
6%
14/1-
Draw 2-2
6%
12/1-
Cruz Azul 1-0
5%
12/1-
Toluca 3-0
5%
16/1-
Draw 0-0
5%
12/1-
Toluca 3-2
4%
22/1-
Cruz Azul 2-0
3%
20/1-
Toluca 4-1
3%
28/1-
Cruz Azul 3-1
2%
28/1-
Toluca 4-0
2%
33/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
8/11-
Under 2.5 Goals
40%
43/40-
Home 1st Goal
54%
4/6-
Away 1st Goal
44%
13/10-
No 1st Goal
3%
12/1-
BTTS - Yes
59%
4/6-
BTTS - No
41%
11/10-
BTTS - Home Win
28%
13/5-
BTTS - Draw
18%
7/2-
BTTS - Away Win
14%
6/1-
Home/draw
76%
2/9-
Away/draw
47%
10/11-
Home/away
78%
2/7-
Over 1.5 Goals
81%
2/9-
Under 1.5 Goals
19%
3/1-
Over 3.5 Goals
37%
7/4-
Under 3.5 Goals
63%
2/5-
Over 4.5 Goals
20%
9/2-
Under 4.5 Goals
80%
1/7-
Over 5.5 Goals
9%
10/1-
Under 5.5 Goals
91%
1/20-
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1/25-
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
12/1-
Home DNB
69%
2/5-
Away DNB
40%
7/4-
Toluca win to nil
25%
5/2-
Cruz Azul win to nil
11%
7/1-
Toluca / Toluca
28%
2/1-
Toluca / Cruz Azul
3%
28/1-
Toluca / Draw
6%
12/1-
Draw / Toluca
17%
4/1-
Draw / Cruz Azul
10%
15/2-
Draw / Draw
14%
5/1-
Cruz Azul / Toluca
4%
20/1-
Cruz Azul / Cruz Azul
14%
5/1-
Cruz Azul / Draw
6%
14/1-
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
3
Toluca have won 3 consecutive home league games
11
Toluca have not lost in 11 consecutive home league games
Toluca 3RD
20 league games
Home
3
Overall
Goals: Scored
54
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
15
D
4
L
1
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Toluca3 - 1S. Laguna
Toluca2 - 1Tigres
Toluca3 - 2Monterrey
Toluca0 - 0Juarez
Toluca2 - 0America
Toluca2 - 2Pachuca
Toluca4 - 0Queretaro
Toluca3 - 1Mazatlan
Toluca6 - 2Monterrey
Toluca3 - 1Puebla
Toluca1 - 1Pumas UNAM
Toluca3 - 4Tigres
Toluca3 - 1Necaxa
Toluca2 - 0America
Toluca3 - 0Tigres
Toluca2 - 1Monterrey
Toluca2 - 2Cruz Azul
Toluca2 - 1S. Laguna
Toluca3 - 2Pachuca
Toluca5 - 2Necaxa
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
13
Draw
5
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AToluca0 - 0Tigres
HToluca3 - 1S. Laguna
AToluca1 - 0Monterrey
HToluca2 - 1Tigres
AToluca0 - 1Tigres
HToluca3 - 2Monterrey
AToluca0 - 1Monterrey
HToluca0 - 0Juarez
AToluca2 - 1Juarez
HToluca2 - 0America
AToluca0 - 0Atlas
HToluca2 - 2Pachuca
AToluca0 - 0Tijuana
HToluca4 - 0Queretaro
AToluca4 - 2Leon
HToluca3 - 1Mazatlan
HToluca6 - 2Monterrey
AToluca3 - 0Guadalajara
HToluca3 - 1Puebla
AToluca3 - 1A. San Luis
Cruz Azul 2ND
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
8
Draw
8
L
4
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Leon2 - 1Cruz Azul
Tigres1 - 1Cruz Azul
Guadalajara0 - 0Cruz Azul
Puebla0 - 3Cruz Azul
Necaxa1 - 1Cruz Azul
Tigres1 - 1Cruz Azul
Tijuana2 - 0Cruz Azul
Pachuca0 - 1Cruz Azul
Guadalajara1 - 2Cruz Azul
A. San Luis1 - 2Cruz Azul
Atlas3 - 3Cruz Azul
America2 - 1Cruz Azul
Leon2 - 3Cruz Azul
Toluca2 - 2Cruz Azul
America0 - 0Cruz Azul
Guadalajara0 - 1Cruz Azul
Mazatlan1 - 1Cruz Azul
S. Laguna0 - 1Cruz Azul
Tigres2 - 1Cruz Azul
Tijuana2 - 3Cruz Azul
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
11
Draw
6
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HCruz Azul1 - 0Puebla
HCruz Azul2 - 0Atlas
ACruz Azul1 - 2Leon
ACruz Azul1 - 1Tigres
HCruz Azul1 - 1Tigres
HCruz Azul3 - 2Guadalajara
ACruz Azul0 - 0Guadalajara
HCruz Azul2 - 3Pumas UNAM
ACruz Azul3 - 0Puebla
HCruz Azul2 - 0Monterrey
ACruz Azul1 - 1Necaxa
HCruz Azul2 - 1America
ACruz Azul1 - 1Tigres
ACruz Azul0 - 2Tijuana
HCruz Azul2 - 2Queretaro
HCruz Azul3 - 2Juarez
ACruz Azul1 - 0Pachuca
ACruz Azul2 - 1Guadalajara
HCruz Azul1 - 0Toluca
HCruz Azul3 - 2S. Laguna
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Toluca since 2019
Toluca
Cruz Azul
Goals: Scored
14
13
Games: Scored
7 / 8
7 / 8
Clean sheets
1 / 8
1 / 8
TOL
3
D
3
CAZ
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 1Cruz Azul
Toluca3 - 1
1 - 4Cruz Azul
Toluca2 - 1
Toluca2 - 0
Draw3 - 3Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Cruz Azul since 2018
Cruz Azul
Toluca
Goals: Scored
16
10
Games: Scored
8 / 9
6 / 9
Clean sheets
3 / 9
1 / 9
TOL
2
D
2
CAZ
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 2Toluca
2 - 3Toluca
Cruz Azul4 - 0
Cruz Azul3 - 1
Cruz Azul3 - 2
Draw1 - 1Draw
Cruz Azul1 - 0
Goal Statistics

Toluca's defensive record is very strong, A. Mohamed Matijevich's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive Liga MX outings. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.2 for Cruz Azul makes sense in this context.

Toluca 3rd Cruz Azul 2nd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.9
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
15%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4+
12%
There is a 85% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 66% probability that Cruz Azul will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+25
Toluca have scored 25% more goals at home than predicted
-2
Cruz Azul’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
2.7
average goals scored
1.4
average goals scored
1.2
conceded
1.2
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season
Toluca
PG (predicted goals)
Cruz Azul
1.9
1.2
Attack rating
0%
better
TOL
CAZ
view stats
Games scored19
21
Failed to score7
3
Scored first12
13
Goals scored54
41
Avg. goals scored2.1
1.7
Avg. shots per game13
13
Avg. shots per goal6
8
Conversion rate for17
13
Avg. XG for1.8
1.4
KickOff rating
0%
Defence rating
4%
better
TOL
CAZ
view stats
Games conceded17
16
Clean sheets9
8
Conceded first10
9
Goals conceded25
26
Avg. goals conceded1
1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded8
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded9
7
Conversion rate against12%
15%
Avg. XG against1
1
KickOff rating
+4%

Toluca v Cruz Azul Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
2315109
N CastroPaulinhoA VegaJ Gallardo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
N Castro MID2638
1
-
F Pereira DEF252
7
-
J Uriarte MID2454
1
-
F Romero MID242
3
-
M Ruíz MID2332
5
-
J Gallardo DEF2241
9
-
Paulinho FWD22152
3
-
D Barbosa DEF211
6
-
E López DEF19
1
-
H González GLK17
2
-
S Simón DEF173
2
-
B Méndez DEF171
1
1
Helinho  FWD1585
4
-
A Vega FWD14410
3
-
A Briseño DEF1311
-
L García GLK10
1
-
O. Virgen FWD1011
1
-
F Arce MID8
1
-
M Isaís DEF5
1
-
P Pérez FWD3
-
A Bermúdez FWD3
1
-
J Price MID2
-
S Córdova MID2
1
-
Luan DEF1
-
V Camarena MID1
-
Cruz Azul Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
231056
W DittaG FernándezJ ParadelaW Ditta
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
W Ditta DEF24
6
-
J Paradela MID2455
3
-
C Rodríguez MID2445
3
-
E Lira MID23
4
-
C Rotondi FWD2223
3
-
L Romero FWD2122
1
G Piovi DEF202
5
-
J Márquez MID2031
4
-
G Fernández FWD20104
1
-
O Campos DEF181
-
J Sánchez DEF181
1
-
K Mier GLK16
-
J Chiquete DEF1511
1
2
A Gudiño GLK9
1
-
A. Morales Rosas FWD811
-
M. Levy Mendaña FWD8
1
-
A Moreno MID6
1
-
J. Rodarte Barragán DEF5
1
1
A Palavecino MID31
1
-