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Toluca v Guadalajara : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 28th Feb, 23:00 BST, Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo

Toluca and their boss Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich will be aiming to beat Gabriel Alejandro Milito and his Guadalajara side on Saturday night, as the pair meet at the Estadio Nemesio Díez in the Liga MX. Analysing both teams' last 20 Liga MX matches, as well as baseline data within the competition and the market, to generate our percentage predictions. All the statistics, including head-to-heads, are shown below, alongside the best odds.


Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals
In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Toluca are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 46% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.96.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Toluca
46%
24/25-
Draw
24%
12/5-
Guadalajara
29%
13/5-
Draw 1-1
11%
11/2-
Toluca 2-1
9%
8/1-
Toluca 1-0
9%
15/2-
Toluca 2-0
7%
9/1-
Guadalajara 2-1
7%
11/1-
Guadalajara 1-0
7%
11/1-
Draw 2-2
6%
12/1-
Draw 0-0
5%
10/1-
Toluca 3-1
5%
14/1-
Guadalajara 2-0
4%
18/1-
Toluca 3-0
4%
18/1-
Toluca 3-2
3%
22/1-
Guadalajara 3-1
3%
28/1-
Guadalajara 3-2
3%
33/1-
Toluca 4-1
2%
33/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
17/20-
Under 2.5 Goals
44%
19/20-
Home 1st Goal
51%
8/11-
Away 1st Goal
46%
5/4-
No 1st Goal
3%
10/1-
BTTS - Yes
58%
7/10-
BTTS - No
42%
21/20-
BTTS - Home Win
24%
3/1-
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/3-
BTTS - Away Win
16%
11/2-
Home/draw
71%
2/7-
Away/draw
54%
4/5-
Home/away
76%
3/10-
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
1/4-
Under 1.5 Goals
21%
11/4-
Over 3.5 Goals
34%
2/1-
Under 3.5 Goals
66%
4/11-
Over 4.5 Goals
17%
5/1-
Under 4.5 Goals
83%
1/8-
Over 5.5 Goals
8%
12/1-
Under 5.5 Goals
92%
1/25-
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1/20-
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
10/1-
Home DNB
63%
1/2-
Away DNB
46%
6/4-
Toluca win to nil
23%
11/4-
Guadalajara win to nil
14%
11/2-
Toluca / Toluca
25%
9/4-
Toluca / Guadalajara
3%
28/1-
Toluca / Draw
6%
12/1-
Draw / Toluca
15%
9/2-
Draw / Guadalajara
11%
13/2-
Draw / Draw
15%
9/2-
Guadalajara / Toluca
4%
22/1-
Guadalajara / Guadalajara
15%
9/2-
Guadalajara / Draw
6%
14/1-
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Win / draw / win form
13
Toluca have not lost in 13 consecutive home league games
Toluca 4TH
20 league games
Home
13
Overall
Goals: Scored
48
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
14
Draw
5
L
1
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Toluca1 - 0Tijuana
Toluca1 - 1Cruz Azul
Toluca3 - 1S. Laguna
Toluca2 - 1Tigres
Toluca3 - 2Monterrey
Toluca0 - 0Juarez
Toluca2 - 0America
Toluca2 - 2Pachuca
Toluca4 - 0Queretaro
Toluca3 - 1Mazatlan
Toluca6 - 2Monterrey
Toluca3 - 1Puebla
Toluca1 - 1Pumas UNAM
Toluca3 - 4Tigres
Toluca3 - 1Necaxa
Toluca2 - 0America
Toluca3 - 0Tigres
Toluca2 - 1Monterrey
Toluca2 - 2Cruz Azul
Toluca2 - 1S. Laguna
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
15
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
11
Draw
7
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HToluca1 - 0Tijuana
HToluca1 - 1Cruz Azul
AToluca0 - 0Puebla
AToluca0 - 0Tigres
HToluca3 - 1S. Laguna
AToluca1 - 0Monterrey
HToluca2 - 1Tigres
AToluca0 - 1Tigres
HToluca3 - 2Monterrey
AToluca0 - 1Monterrey
HToluca0 - 0Juarez
AToluca2 - 1Juarez
HToluca2 - 0America
AToluca0 - 0Atlas
HToluca2 - 2Pachuca
AToluca0 - 0Tijuana
HToluca4 - 0Queretaro
AToluca4 - 2Leon
HToluca3 - 1Mazatlan
HToluca6 - 2Monterrey
Guadalajara 6TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
8
D
4
Lost
8
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Mazatlan1 - 2Guadalajara
A. San Luis2 - 3Guadalajara
Juarez0 - 1Guadalajara
Cruz Azul3 - 2Guadalajara
Pachuca0 - 1Guadalajara
Queretaro1 - 0Guadalajara
Pumas UNAM1 - 2Guadalajara
Puebla0 - 2Guadalajara
America1 - 2Guadalajara
Tijuana3 - 3Guadalajara
S. Laguna1 - 0Guadalajara
Leon1 - 0Guadalajara
Atlas1 - 1Guadalajara
Mazatlan1 - 1Guadalajara
Monterrey3 - 1Guadalajara
Juarez1 - 1Guadalajara
Pumas UNAM0 - 1Guadalajara
A. San Luis3 - 1Guadalajara
Toluca2 - 1Guadalajara
Leon2 - 1Guadalajara
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
14
D
2
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HGuadalajara1 - 0America
AGuadalajara2 - 1Mazatlan
AGuadalajara3 - 2A. San Luis
HGuadalajara2 - 1Queretaro
AGuadalajara1 - 0Juarez
HGuadalajara2 - 0Pachuca
AGuadalajara2 - 3Cruz Azul
HGuadalajara0 - 0Cruz Azul
HGuadalajara4 - 2Monterrey
AGuadalajara1 - 0Pachuca
HGuadalajara4 - 1Atlas
AGuadalajara0 - 1Queretaro
HGuadalajara2 - 0Mazatlan
AGuadalajara2 - 1Pumas UNAM
AGuadalajara2 - 0Puebla
HGuadalajara3 - 1Necaxa
HGuadalajara0 - 3Toluca
HGuadalajara0 - 0Tigres
AGuadalajara2 - 1America
HGuadalajara1 - 2Cruz Azul
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
6
Toluca have not lost to Guadalajara in 6 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Toluca since 2018
Toluca
Guadalajara
Goals: Scored
8
8
Games: Scored
6 / 8
5 / 8
Clean sheets
3 / 8
2 / 8
TOL
2
D
5
GUA
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Toluca1 - 0
1 - 3Guadalajara
Draw2 - 2Draw
League games at Guadalajara since 2019
Guadalajara
Toluca
Goals: Scored
11
10
Games: Scored
7 / 9
5 / 9
Clean sheets
4 / 9
2 / 9
TOL
2
D
3
GUA
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Guadalajara
0 - 3Toluca
Draw0 - 0Draw
Guadalajara1 - 0
Guadalajara3 - 2
1 - 2Toluca
Guadalajara2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Guadalajara1 - 0
Goal Statistics

Toluca's defensive record is to be admired, A. Mohamed Matijevich's men having conceded 1 or less in 8 consecutive Liga MX outings. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.3 for Guadalajara makes sense in this context.

Toluca 4th Guadalajara 6th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.7
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
19%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
9%
There is a 81% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 64% probability that Guadalajara will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+11
Toluca have scored 11% more goals at home than predicted
-6
Guadalajara’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
2.4
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.4
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season
Toluca
PG (predicted goals)
Guadalajara
1.7
1.3
Attack rating
3%
better
TOL
GUA
view stats
Games scored21
19
Failed to score8
6
Scored first14
15
Goals scored56
42
Avg. goals scored1.9
1.7
Avg. shots per game13
11
Avg. shots per goal7
7
Conversion rate for15
15
Avg. XG for1.8
1.7
KickOff rating
+3%
Defence rating
8%
better
TOL
GUA
view stats
Games conceded18
17
Clean sheets11
8
Conceded first10
8
Goals conceded26
29
Avg. goals conceded0.9
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded8
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded9
7
Conversion rate against11%
14%
Avg. XG against0.9
1
KickOff rating
+8%

Toluca v Guadalajara Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
26171010
F PereiraPaulinhoA VegaJ Gallardo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
F Pereira DEF282
7
-
N Castro MID2838
1
-
J Uriarte MID2754
1
-
F Romero MID272
3
-
M Ruíz MID2633
7
-
J Gallardo DEF2542
10
-
Paulinho FWD25172
3
-
D Barbosa DEF231
6
-
E López DEF21
1
-
B Méndez DEF201
2
1
S Simón DEF203
3
-
H González GLK19
2
-
Helinho  FWD1585
4
-
A Vega FWD14410
3
-
A Briseño DEF1311
-
L García GLK11
1
-
O. Virgen FWD1111
1
-
F Arce MID8
1
-
P Pérez FWD6
-
M Isaís DEF5
1
-
S Córdova MID5
1
-
J Price MID4
-
A Bermúdez FWD3
1
-
Luan DEF2
-
F. Rossi Donazar FWD2
-
V Camarena MID1
-
Guadalajara Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
251769
J RangelA. González AlbaR LedezmaR Ledezma
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Rangel GLK25
3
-
B González DEF2532
1
-
E Álvarez MID2535
-
A. González Alba FWD24171
3
-
J Castillo DEF23
1
-
R Ledezma DEF2316
8
1
L Romo MID2312
4
1
S Loboa MID202
3
-
R Hernández FWD2044
-
D Campillo DEF1911
4
-
O Govea MID191
4
-
D Aguirre MID1832
5
-
M Ortiz DEF162
1
-
F González MID16
3
1
Érick Gutiérrez MID132
5
-
M Tapias DEF101
-
G Sepúlveda DEF9
2
-
H. Camberos Figueroa FWD8
1
-
B Gutiérrez MID6
-
A Pulido  FWD6
-
Ángel Sepúlveda FWD6
-
J Sandoval FWD51
-
R Sánchez FWD31
-