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CD Nacional v Benfica : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 29th Nov, 18:00 BST, Estadio da Madeira, Funchal

Tiago Miguel Carvalho Margarido and José Mario Felix dos Santos Mourinho clash in the Liga NOS on Saturday evening, as CD Nacional face Benfica at the Estadio da Madeira. Our predictions are based on extensive statistical analysis of both teams' performance, across seventeen of the biggest markets. The data and the odds is designed to fit each market, and head-to-head stats are included for all.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Liga NOS Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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Best Tip: Benfica to win

This is a fixture that really only looks like going one way and, unfortunately for the home side, that way is Benfica's. We predict Saturday's visitors to Estadio da Madeira will have too much for their hosts, and there's plenty of evidence to support that view in the sides' recent form stats, head-to-head (H2H) records and the odds from bookies too. They've made an away win in the win / draw / win market the most likely outcome, and are offering a best price of 1.33.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 70% chance of Benfica coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Nacional
11%
13/2
17%
7/1
Draw
19%
17/4
17%
4/1
Benfica
70%
1/3
2%
4/11
Benfica 2-0
14%
11/25/1
Benfica 1-0
13%
6/1
7%
11/2
Benfica 3-0
10%
15/27/1
Benfica 2-1
9%
15/2
6%
13/2
Draw 1-1
9%
9/1
11%
15/2
Draw 0-0
7%
14/1
15%
11/1
Benfica 3-1
6%
11/1
9%
9/1
Benfica 4-0
5%
14/111/1
Nacional 1-0
4%
18/1
10%
14/1
Benfica 4-1
3%
20/1
11%
14/1
Draw 2-2
3%
20/1
11%
16/1
Nacional 2-1
3%
20/1
9%
18/1
Benfica 3-2
2%
28/1
12%
18/1
Benfica 5-0
2%
28/120/1
Nacional 2-0
1%
40/128/1
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
7/10
3%
4/6
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
11/10
5%
11/10
Home 1st Goal
34%
9/4
4%
27/10
Away 1st Goal
62%
4/11
2%
1/3
No 1st Goal
4%
14/1
15%
11/1
BTTS - Yes
42%
1/1
3%
1/1
BTTS - No
58%
3/4
3%
8/11
BTTS - Home Win
5%
12/1
13%
11/1
BTTS - Draw
13%
6/1
17%
11/2
BTTS - Away Win
25%
11/5
3%
21/10
Home/draw
30%
2/1
8%
21/10
Away/draw
89%
1/10
3%
1/12
Home/away
81%
1/6
1%
1/6
Over 1.5 Goals
76%
2/9
3%
2/9
Under 1.5 Goals
24%
3/1
11%
3/1
Over 3.5 Goals
29%
7/4
5%
13/8
Under 3.5 Goals
71%
2/5
3%
4/9
Over 4.5 Goals
14%
4/1
11%
18/5
Under 4.5 Goals
86%
1/6
1%
1/6
Over 5.5 Goals
6%
10/1
10%
8/1
Under 5.5 Goals
94%
1/20
1%
1/18
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1/33
1%
1/40
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
14/1
15%
11/1
Home DNB
24%
5/1
14%
5/1
Away DNB
84%
1/8
3%
1/9
Nacional win to nil
6%
12/1
13%
-
Benfica win to nil
45%
11/10
5%
-
Nacional / Nacional
6%
14/110/1
Nacional / Benfica
4%
20/116/1
Nacional / Draw
4%
20/116/1
Draw / Nacional
5%
16/112/1
Draw / Benfica
21%
3/129/10
Draw / Draw
12%
6/1
7%
6/1
Benfica / Nacional
2%
50/1
24%
40/1
Benfica / Benfica
41%
20/21
2%
1/1
Benfica / Draw
5%
16/116/1
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Win / draw / win Liga NOS table

Nacional have played 11 matches so far this season and are in 10th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

7 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 4 games, drawn 1 and won 2. Nacional have conceded 11 goals, scored 6, failed to score in 3 matches and kept 1 clean sheet.

Home league performance

Nacional have played 5 games at home, winning 1, drawing 0 and losing 4 fixtures. They have scored 5 goals, conceded 11 goals, kept 0 clean sheets and failed to score 2 times in home league games.

Benfica lay in 3rd place on 25 points in the Liga NOS league table having played 11 matches. Benfica are unbeaten in 10 games against teams below them in the league and kept 5 clean sheets out of 10 games. Benfica are unbeaten away after 5 games and have kept 4 clean sheets in those matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 10 games against teams below them in the table, winning 7, drawing 3 and losing 0 games. They have scored 23 goals and kept 5 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Benfica have conceded 6 goals and scored in every game.

Away league performance

Benfica have played 5 away games, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 0 games. They have scored an average of 1.8 goals per away game and conceded an average 0.2 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Nacional
Benfica
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Porto1110102131 
Feb 15
l
 
1-0A
Mar 8
d
 
0-00-0
2
S. Lisbon119112128 
l
 
1-4F
Feb 1
Dec 5
Apr 18
3
Benfica117401725 
Nov 29
Apr 11
-
-
4
Gil Vicente117221123 
l
 
0-2A
Jan 18
w
 
2-1A
Mar 1
5
Famalicao11542619 
l
 
0-1A
Mar 22
Dec 21
May 2
6
Moreirense11605118 
w
 
3-2A
Mar 8
Apr 25
Dec 14
7
Braga11443816 
Mar 1
w
 
0-1F
May 9
Dec 28
8
V. Guimaraes11425-714 
May 16
Jan 4
Mar 22
w
 
0-3F
9
Estoril11344213 
Mar 15
d
 
1-1F
Jan 4
May 16
10
Nacional11335-412 
-
-
Apr 11
Nov 29
11
Rio Ave11263-512 
Jan 25
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1F
Jan 18
12
Estrela Amadora11254-111 
Apr 3
d
 
1-1F
Jan 25
w
 
0-1F
13
Santa Clara11326-411 
Dec 28
May 9
d
 
1-1F
Feb 15
14
Alverca11326-711 
Apr 18
Dec 7
Feb 8
w
 
1-2F
15
Casa Pia11236-119 
Feb 8
w
 
0-2F
d
 
2-2F
Apr 3
16
Arouca11236-179 
l
 
1-2F
Feb 22
w
 
5-0F
Mar 15
17
Tondela11137-146 
Dec 14
Apr 25
w
 
3-0F
Feb 1
18
AVS11038-173 
May 2
Dec 21
Feb 22
w
 
0-3F
Win / draw / win form
26
Benfica have not lost in 26 consecutive league games
3
Benfica have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive away league games
Nacional 10TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
32
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
7
D
3
Lost
10
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Nacional0 - 1Famalicao
Nacional3 - 2Moreirense
Nacional1 - 2Arouca
Nacional1 - 4S. Lisbon
Nacional0 - 2Gil Vicente
Nacional3 - 3Rio Ave
Nacional1 - 2V. Guimaraes
Nacional0 - 3Gil Vicente
Nacional0 - 1Estrela Amadora
Nacional3 - 1Casa Pia
Nacional2 - 1Famalicao
Nacional2 - 2Estoril
Nacional1 - 2Arouca
Nacional3 - 1AVS
Nacional2 - 0Porto
Nacional0 - 2Benfica
Nacional1 - 0Moreirense
Nacional0 - 0Boavista
Nacional2 - 0Santa Clara
Nacional0 - 3Braga
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
5
Draw
5
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ANacional1 - 1Estrela Amadora
HNacional0 - 1Famalicao
ANacional1 - 1Estoril
HNacional3 - 2Moreirense
ANacional1 - 0Braga
HNacional1 - 2Arouca
ANacional0 - 1Porto
ANacional2 - 0Casa Pia
HNacional1 - 4S. Lisbon
ANacional1 - 1Rio Ave
HNacional0 - 2Gil Vicente
ANacional0 - 3Porto
HNacional3 - 3Rio Ave
HNacional1 - 2V. Guimaraes
ANacional1 - 1Moreirense
HNacional0 - 3Gil Vicente
ANacional1 - 0Boavista
HNacional0 - 1Estrela Amadora
ANacional0 - 1Santa Clara
HNacional3 - 1Casa Pia
Benfica 3RD
20 league games
Away
3
Overall
26
Goals: Scored
40
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
15
D
3
L
2
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
V. Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica
Porto0 - 0Benfica
AVS0 - 3Benfica
Alverca1 - 2Benfica
Estrela Amadora0 - 1Benfica
Braga1 - 1Benfica
Estoril1 - 2Benfica
V. Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica
Porto1 - 4Benfica
Gil Vicente0 - 3Benfica
Rio Ave2 - 3Benfica
Santa Clara0 - 1Benfica
Estrela Amadora2 - 3Benfica
Casa Pia3 - 1Benfica
S. Lisbon1 - 0Benfica
Nacional0 - 2Benfica
AVS1 - 1Benfica
Arouca0 - 2Benfica
Sporting Farense1 - 2Benfica
Boavista0 - 3Benfica
Goals: Scored
48
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
13
Draw
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HBenfica2 - 2Casa Pia
ABenfica3 - 0V. Guimaraes
HBenfica5 - 0Arouca
ABenfica0 - 0Porto
HBenfica2 - 1Gil Vicente
HBenfica1 - 1Rio Ave
ABenfica3 - 0AVS
HBenfica1 - 1Santa Clara
ABenfica2 - 1Alverca
HBenfica3 - 0Tondela
ABenfica1 - 0Estrela Amadora
ABenfica1 - 1Braga
HBenfica1 - 1S. Lisbon
ABenfica2 - 1Estoril
HBenfica6 - 0AVS
ABenfica3 - 0V. Guimaraes
HBenfica2 - 2Arouca
ABenfica4 - 1Porto
HBenfica3 - 2Sporting Farense
ABenfica3 - 0Gil Vicente
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Benfica have beaten Nacional in 5 consecutive away league meetings
10
Benfica have not lost to Nacional in 10 consecutive league meetings
League games at Nacional since 2016
Nacional
Benfica
Goals: Scored
3
16
Games: Scored
3 / 5
5 / 5
Clean sheets
0 / 5
2 / 5
BEF
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Nacional
0 - 2Benfica
1 - 3Benfica
0 - 4Benfica
1 - 3Benfica
1 - 4Benfica
League games at Benfica since 2016
Benfica
Nacional
Goals: Scored
21
2
Games: Scored
5 / 5
2 / 5
Clean sheets
3 / 5
0 / 5
D
1
BEF
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Benfica
Benfica3 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Benfica10 - 0
Benfica3 - 0
Benfica4 - 1
Goal Statistics

Benfica's forwards have been superb of late, finding the net twice or more in 3 consecutive Liga NOS matches. A PG of 2.1 suggests that run should continue on Saturday evening.

Nacional 10th Benfica 3rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
0.7
goals
2.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
52%
1
34%
2
11%
3
4+
There is a 52% probability that Nacional will fail to score
0
13%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4+
16%
There is a 61% probability that Benfica will score 2 or more goals in this match
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
=0
Nacional’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+7
Benfica’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.3
average goals scored
2.0
average goals scored
1.6
conceded
0.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga NOS - 2025/2025 season
Nacional
PG (predicted goals)
Benfica
0.7
2.1
Attack rating
NAC
BEF
38%
better
view stats
Games scored8
10
Failed to score3
1
Scored first6
9
Goals scored11
23
Avg. goals scored1
2.1
Avg. shots per game9
12
Avg. shots per goal9
6
Conversion rate for11
18
Avg. XG for1.3
2.3
KickOff rating
+38%
Defence rating
NAC
BEF
53%
better
view stats
Games conceded9
5
Clean sheets2
6
Conceded first5
1
Goals conceded15
6
Avg. goals conceded1.4
0.5
Avg. shots/game conceded10
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
13
Conversion rate against14%
8%
Avg. XG against1.6
0.9
KickOff rating
+53%

Nacional v Benfica Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Nacional Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
11634
J. Mendes GomesChuchuJ. Mendes GomesL Santos
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J. Mendes Gomes DEF1113
1
-
L Santos DEF112
4
-
Liziero  MID113
4
-
Witi FWD11
-
Chuchu FWD116
3
-
P Bóia FWD111
2
-
J Aurélio DEF10
1
-
F Soares MID10
2
-
M Dias MID10
1
1
Z Vitor DEF91
3
1
C. Abidi MID9
2
-
P. Messias Cardozo FWD7
1
1
L França GLK6
1
-
M. Silva Watts Rodrigues FWD6
1
-
L João FWD6
-
K Azarias GLK5
-
Ulisses DEF5
3
1
J Silva MID5
-
A Sousa MID3
-
M. Nourani FWD3
-
A Duarte DEF2
-
L Vallier DEF2
-
F. Baptista Gonçalves DEF2
1
-
Benfica Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
11935
R RíosV PavlidisV PavlidisR Ríos
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
S Dahl DEF111
1
-
L Barreiro MID112
-
R Ríos MID11
5
-
F Aursnes MID1111
-
V Pavlidis FWD1193
1
-
N Otamendi DEF101
5
-
E Barrenechea MID10
4
-
A Trubin GLK9
-
T Araújo DEF91
-
F Ivanovic FWD93
1
-
A Schjelderup FWD911
-
A Dedic DEF811
2
1
A Silva DEF8
2
-
H Sudakov MID83
2
-
G Prestianni FWD811
2
-
J. Seno Luis Rêgo MID61
-
D Lukébakio FWD63
1
-
H Araújo FWD5
-
S Soares GLK2
1
-
J. Fins Veloso MID2
-
R Obrador DEF1
-