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Alaves v Atletico de Madrid : La Liga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 3rd May, 13:00 BST, Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Saturday afternoon at the Mendizorroza, and it’s a La Liga showdown between Alaves and Atletico de Madrid. Eduardo Coudet and Diego Simeone going all-out to guide their side to the win. This preview has the best odds for 17 different markets, alongside bespoke data that changes as you go through them. Our predictions run off the last 20 matches, so all stats are shown for each side's last 20 too. Home vs away and overall records can be found, while you'll also find head to head (H2H) history later on in the preview.


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Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

It may not be what the neutrals want to hear, but it's all-but impossible to predict a goal-fest here. The stats suggest Alaves and A.Madrid both are poor in attack and defence, and the odds point towards a tie with fewer than 2 goals in total as they go head-to-head. We think that's a great shout and, without an obvious outright winners to back, under 2.5 goals feels like the right bet on this match.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 49% chance of A.Madrid coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Alaves
22%
27/10
3%
-
Draw
29%
11/5
3%
-
A.Madrid
49%
11/10
2%
-
A.Madrid 1-0
17%
5/1
8%
-
Draw 0-0
13%
6/1
18%
-
Draw 1-1
13%
5/1
8%
-
A.Madrid 2-0
11%
8/1-
Alaves 1-0
10%
15/2
6%
-
A.Madrid 2-1
8%
17/2
6%
-
Alaves 2-1
5%
12/1-
A.Madrid 3-0
5%
18/1-
Alaves 2-0
4%
16/1-
A.Madrid 3-1
3%
20/1
11%
-
Draw 2-2
3%
18/1
12%
-
A.Madrid 4-0
1%
40/1-
A.Madrid 3-2
1%
40/1
21%
-
Alaves 3-1
1%
33/1-
A.Madrid 4-1
1%
40/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
6/4
14%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
67%
8/15
8%
-
Home 1st Goal
38%
13/8
5%
-
Away 1st Goal
53%
4/6-
No 1st Goal
9%
6/1
18%
-
BTTS - Yes
38%
11/10
8%
-
BTTS - No
62%
4/6
7%
-
BTTS - Home Win
7%
8/1
20%
-
BTTS - Draw
16%
4/1
5%
-
BTTS - Away Win
15%
9/2
16%
-
Home/draw
51%
7/10
2%
-
Away/draw
78%
2/7-
Home/away
71%
4/11
2%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
60%
1/2
7%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
40%
13/8
13%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
15%
4/1
25%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
85%
1/6
6%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
6%
10/1
38%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
94%
1/20
3%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
2%
22/1
21%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
98%
1/80
1%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
87%
1/10
3%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
13%
6/1
18%
-
Home DNB
42%
6/4-
Away DNB
69%
1/2-
Alaves win to nil
15%
9/2-
A.Madrid win to nil
34%
9/4
4%
-
Alaves / Alaves
13%
11/2
8%
-
Alaves / A.Madrid
3%
28/1
12%
-
Alaves / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / Alaves
11%
13/2-
Draw / A.Madrid
17%
4/1-
Draw / Draw
19%
10/3
9%
-
A.Madrid / Alaves
2%
40/1
21%
-
A.Madrid / A.Madrid
24%
5/2
3%
-
A.Madrid / Draw
6%
14/1-
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Win / draw / win La Liga table

Alaves have played 33 matches so far this season and are in 17th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

28 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 14 games, drawn 7 and won 7. Alaves have conceded 37 goals, scored 25, failed to score in 11 matches and kept 5 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Alaves have played 16 games at home, winning 5, drawing 4 and losing 7 fixtures. They have scored 12 goals, conceded 16 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and failed to score 7 times in home league games.

A.Madrid lay in 3rd place on 66 points in the La Liga league table having played 33 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 29 games against teams below them in the table, winning 18, drawing 7 and losing 4 games. They have scored 50 goals and kept 14 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. A.Madrid have conceded 20 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

A.Madrid have played 16 away games, winning 7, drawing 5 and losing 4 games. They have scored an average of 1.4 goals per away game and conceded an average 0.8 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Alaves
A.Madrid
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Barcelona3324455776 
l
 
0-3A
l
 
1-0A
l
 
2-4F
w
 
1-2A
2
Real Madrid3322653572 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
3-2A
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1F
3
A.Madrid Away3319952966 
May 3
l
 
2-1F
-
-
4
A.Bilbao33161252460 
d
 
1-1A
May 11
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-1F
5
Villarreal33151081155 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
3-0A
d
 
1-1A
d
 
2-2A
6
Real Betis331599954 
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
1-3F
May 18
l
 
1-0A
7
Celta3313713146 
d
 
1-1F
l
 
2-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-1F
8
Osasuna3310149-644 
May 25
d
 
2-2F
w
 
1-0F
May 15
9
Mallorca3312813-744 
w
 
1-0F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
2-0F
w
 
0-1F
10
R.Sociedad3312615-542 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-2A
May 10
d
 
1-1F
11
R.Vallecano33101112-741 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
1-0A
w
 
3-0F
d
 
1-1A
12
Getafe3310914139 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
13
Espanyol3310914-739 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
3-2A
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1F
14
Valencia3391212-1239 
May 14
d
 
2-2F
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-3F
15
Sevilla3391014-937 
w
 
2-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
4-3F
w
 
1-2A
16
Girona339816-1235 
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
w
 
3-0F
May 25
17
Alaves Home3381015-1134 
-
-
w
 
2-1A
May 3
18
Las Palmas338817-1532 
w
 
2-0F
d
 
2-2F
w
 
2-0F
l
 
1-0A
19
Leganes3361215-1930 
d
 
1-1A
d
 
3-3A
w
 
3-1A
l
 
1-0A
20
Valladolid334425-5716 
l
 
2-3F
May 18
w
 
4-2A
w
 
0-5F
Win / draw / win form
Alaves 17TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
8
Draw
5
Lost
7
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Alaves1 - 0R.Sociedad
Alaves0 - 1Real Madrid
Alaves0 - 2R.Vallecano
Alaves1 - 0Villarreal
Alaves0 - 1Espanyol
Alaves0 - 1Getafe
Alaves1 - 1Celta
Alaves0 - 1Girona
Alaves1 - 1A.Bilbao
Alaves1 - 1Leganes
Alaves1 - 0Mallorca
Alaves2 - 3Valladolid
Alaves0 - 3Barcelona
Alaves2 - 1Sevilla
Alaves2 - 0Las Palmas
Alaves0 - 0Real Betis
Alaves1 - 0Getafe
Alaves2 - 2Girona
Alaves3 - 0Celta
Alaves2 - 0A.Madrid
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
W
4
Draw
9
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HAlaves1 - 0R.Sociedad
AAlaves1 - 1Sevilla
HAlaves0 - 1Real Madrid
AAlaves1 - 0Girona
HAlaves0 - 2R.Vallecano
AAlaves2 - 2Las Palmas
HAlaves1 - 0Villarreal
AAlaves1 - 1Mallorca
HAlaves0 - 1Espanyol
AAlaves3 - 3Leganes
HAlaves0 - 1Getafe
AAlaves0 - 1Barcelona
HAlaves1 - 1Celta
AAlaves3 - 1Real Betis
HAlaves0 - 1Girona
AAlaves2 - 2Valencia
HAlaves1 - 1A.Bilbao
AAlaves2 - 2Osasuna
HAlaves1 - 1Leganes
AAlaves1 - 2A.Madrid
A.Madrid 3RD
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
15
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Las Palmas1 - 0A.Madrid
Sevilla1 - 2A.Madrid
Espanyol1 - 1A.Madrid
Getafe2 - 1A.Madrid
Valencia0 - 3A.Madrid
Real Madrid1 - 1A.Madrid
Leganes1 - 0A.Madrid
Barcelona1 - 2A.Madrid
Valladolid0 - 5A.Madrid
Mallorca0 - 1A.Madrid
Real Betis1 - 0A.Madrid
R.Sociedad1 - 1A.Madrid
Celta0 - 1A.Madrid
R.Vallecano1 - 1A.Madrid
A.Bilbao0 - 1A.Madrid
Villarreal2 - 2A.Madrid
R.Sociedad0 - 2A.Madrid
Getafe0 - 3A.Madrid
Mallorca0 - 1A.Madrid
Alaves2 - 0A.Madrid
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
20
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
12
D
4
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HA.Madrid3 - 0R.Vallecano
AA.Madrid0 - 1Las Palmas
HA.Madrid4 - 2Valladolid
AA.Madrid2 - 1Sevilla
AA.Madrid1 - 1Espanyol
HA.Madrid2 - 4Barcelona
AA.Madrid1 - 2Getafe
HA.Madrid1 - 0A.Bilbao
AA.Madrid3 - 0Valencia
HA.Madrid1 - 1Celta
AA.Madrid1 - 1Real Madrid
HA.Madrid2 - 0Mallorca
HA.Madrid1 - 1Villarreal
AA.Madrid0 - 1Leganes
HA.Madrid1 - 0Osasuna
AA.Madrid2 - 1Barcelona
HA.Madrid1 - 0Getafe
HA.Madrid4 - 3Sevilla
AA.Madrid5 - 0Valladolid
HA.Madrid2 - 1Alaves
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Alaves since 2017
Alaves
A.Madrid
Goals: Scored
5
8
Games: Scored
4 / 7
4 / 7
Clean sheets
3 / 7
3 / 7
ALV
2
D
2
ATM
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Alaves
Alaves2 - 0
Alaves1 - 0
1 - 2A.Madrid
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 4A.Madrid
0 - 1A.Madrid
Draw0 - 0Draw
League games at A.Madrid since 2016
A.Madrid
Alaves
Goals: Scored
16
5
Games: Scored
8 / 8
5 / 8
Clean sheets
3 / 8
0 / 8
D
1
ATM
7
FIXTURE HISTORY AT A.Madrid
A.Madrid2 - 1
A.Madrid2 - 1
A.Madrid4 - 1
A.Madrid1 - 0
A.Madrid2 - 1
A.Madrid3 - 0
A.Madrid1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Goal Statistics

An absolutely dreadful PG of just 0.8 should cause concerns for Alaves fans, as should a 5 La Liga games run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

Alaves 17th A.Madrid 3rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
0.8
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
47%
1
35%
2
13%
3
4+
There is a 82% probability of Alaves scoring 1 goal or less
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
4+
There is a 64% probability that A.Madrid will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-22
Alaves have scored 22% fewer goals at home than predicted
+4
A.Madrid’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.0
average goals scored
1.4
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
0.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
La Liga - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/278476/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Alaves
PG (predicted goals)
A.Madrid
0.8
1.3
Attack rating
ALV
ATM
33%
better
view stats
Games scored22
29
Failed to score11
4
Scored first14
19
Goals scored35
56
Avg. goals scored1.1
1.7
Avg. shots per game8
9
Avg. shots per goal8
5
Conversion rate for13
19
Avg. XG for1.2
1.5
KickOff rating
+33%
Defence rating
ALV
ATM
34%
better
view stats
Games conceded27
19
Clean sheets6
14
Conceded first18
13
Goals conceded46
27
Avg. goals conceded1.4
0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded8
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
10
Conversion rate against17%
10%
Avg. XG against1.3
1
KickOff rating
+34%

Alaves v A.Madrid La Liga lLine ups will show here when available.

Alaves La Liga squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
3012512
C VicenteK GarcíaC VicenteA Abqar
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
C Vicente FWD3245
2
-
K García FWD3112
4
1
A Blanco MID301
10
1
A Abqar DEF291
12
-
N Tenaglia DEF2921
11
-
A Guevara MID291
1
-
M Sánchez DEF281
6
1
J Guridi MID2831
6
-
A Sivera GLK27
5
1
M Diarra DEF25
7
-
T Martínez FWD254
1
-
C Martín FWD2422
3
-
J Jordán MID2242
3
-
S Mouriño DEF211
5
-
T Conechny FWD181
6
-
A Villalibre FWD1511
3
-
C Benavídez MID1311
2
-
C Aleñá MID92
1
-
A Sedlar DEF8
1
1
A. Hernández Hernández DEF8
1
-
J Owono GLK6
-
F Garcés DEF5
-
H Novoa FWD5
-
P. Cabanes De La Torre FWD5
1
-
A Adrián GLK2
1
-
A.Madrid La Liga squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
321569
J OblakJ ÁlvarezA GriezmannC Lenglet
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Álvarez FWD33152
4
-
A Griezmann FWD3386
2
-
J Oblak GLK32
-
A Sörloth FWD30132
4
-
R Paul MID2934
6
-
M Llorente MID2824
1
1
G Simeone FWD2826
4
-
C Gallagher MID2732
2
-
P Barrios MID2713
4
1
Koke MID2711
4
-
S Lino FWD2632
4
-
Ángel Correa FWD2631
3
1
N Molina DEF253
-
J Giménez DEF251
5
-
R Normand DEF23
8
-
J Galán DEF212
8
-
C Lenglet DEF2011
9
-
R Mandava DEF19
4
-
R Riquelme MID162
-
C Azpilicueta DEF121
-
A Witsel DEF121
1
-
T Lemar MID4
-
J Musso GLK1
-