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Benfica v Real Madrid : Champions League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 28th Jan, 20:00 BST, Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Álvaro Arbeloa Coca leads his Real Madrid troops to the Estádio da Luz in the Champions League on Wednesday night, with José Mario Felix dos Santos Mourinho's Benfica the opponent. Below you'll find unique statistics for every major market, from both teams to score to double chance, including form and historical head-to-head data. Predictions are generated from these, and the odds come straight from leading bookmakers.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Champions League Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Real Madrid to win

The turnout should be good at Estádio da Luz on Wednesday night but, unfortunately, we predict most of those in attendance will be leaving the place 90 minutes later rather less happy than they arrived. The stats below, including head-to-head (H2H) records and recent form, all point towards an away win in the win / draw / win market, with visitors Real Madrid getting the better of hosts Benfica. An inquest will follow for home gaffer José Mario Felix dos Santos Mourinho but, in the meantime, we'd advise users make the most of best bookmaker odds of 1.50 to back the away win.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 67% chance of Real Madrid coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Benfica 16%	5/1	6/1 8%
Draw 17%	10/3	29/10 3%
Real Madrid 67%	1/2	1/2 3%
Real Madrid 2-1 9%	15/2	7/1
Real Madrid 3-1 8%	10/1	9/1
Real Madrid 2-0 7%	9/1	17/2 5%
Draw 1-1 7%	8/1	13/2 6%
Real Madrid 3-0 6%	11/1	10/1 8%
Draw 2-2 6%	12/1	11/1 9%
Real Madrid 1-0 5%	10/1	17/2 5%
Real Madrid 4-1 5%	16/1	14/1
Real Madrid 3-2 5%	18/1	14/1
Benfica 2-1 4%	18/1	18/1 12%
Real Madrid 4-0 4%	18/1	16/1
Real Madrid 4-2 3%	28/1	20/1
Real Madrid 5-1 3%	33/1	22/1 12%
Benfica 1-0 3%	22/1	18/1
Benfica 3-2 2%	33/1	33/1 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 75%	4/9	10/21 3%
Under 2.5 Goals 25%	7/4	6/4 4%
Home 1st Goal 43%	13/8	11/5 7%
Away 1st Goal 56%	4/9	2/5 3%
No 1st Goal 1%	20/1	11/1 8%
BTTS - Yes 66%	8/15	4/7 3%
BTTS - No 34%	11/8	13/10 4%
BTTS - Home Win 11%	8/1	17/2 12%
BTTS - Draw 15%	4/1	18/5 2%
BTTS - Away Win 40%	8/5	8/5 4%
Home/draw 33%	6/4	6/4 4%
Away/draw 84%	1/8	1/11 2%
Home/away 83%	1/5	1/4
Over 1.5 Goals 90%	1/8	1/7 1%
Under 1.5 Goals 10%	5/1	4/1 5%
Over 3.5 Goals 55%	1/1	21/20 3%
Under 3.5 Goals 45%	4/5	7/10 2%
Over 4.5 Goals 35%	12/5	23/10 2%
Under 4.5 Goals 65%	1/3	3/10
Over 5.5 Goals 20%	5/1	19/4 5%
Under 5.5 Goals 80%	1/8	1/8
Over 0.5 Goals 98%	1/66	1/50
Under 0.5 Goals 2%	20/1	11/1 8%
Home DNB 28%	7/2	4/1 11%
Away DNB 79%	2/11	1/7 3%
Benfica win to nil 5%	12/1	-
Real Madrid win to nil 26%	9/4	-
Benfica / Benfica 8%	17/2	9/1 11%
Benfica / Real Madrid 5%	16/1	16/1
Benfica / Draw 6%	16/1	12/1
Draw / Benfica 6%	12/1	12/1 18%
Draw / Real Madrid 18%	7/2	10/3 2%
Draw / Draw 14%	7/1	9/2 4%
Real Madrid / Benfica 2%	33/1	33/1 17%
Real Madrid / Real Madrid 36%	6/5	23/20 4%
Real Madrid / Draw 6%	14/1	11/1

Win / draw / win Champions League table

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Benfica Real Madrid
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Arsenal	7	7	0	0	18	21	-	-	-	-
2	Bayern	7	6	0	1	13	18	-	-	-	-
3	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	11	15	Jan 28	-	-	-
4	Liverpool	7	5	0	2	6	15	-	-	-	l 1-0A
5	Spurs	7	4	2	1	8	14	-	-	-	-
6	PSG	7	4	1	2	10	13	-	-	-	-
7	Newcastle	7	4	1	2	10	13	-	l 3-0A	-	-
8	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	6	13	-	l 1-0A	-	-
9	Barcelona	7	4	1	2	5	13	-	-	-	-
10	S. Lisbon	7	4	1	2	5	13	-	-	-	-
11	Man City	7	4	1	2	4	13	-	-	l 1-2F	-
12	A.Madrid	7	4	1	2	3	13	-	-	-	-
13	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	1	13	-	-	-	-
14	Inter	7	4	0	3	6	12	-	-	-	-
15	Juventus	7	3	3	1	4	12	-	l 2-0A	w 1-0F	-
16	Dortmund	7	3	2	2	4	11	-	-	-	-
17	Galatasaray	7	3	1	3	0	10	-	-	-	-
18	Qarabag	7	3	1	3	-2	10	l 2-3F	-	-	-
19	Marseille	7	3	0	4	0	9	-	-	w 2-1A	-
20	Leverkusen	7	2	3	2	-4	9	l 0-1A	-	-	-
21	Monaco	7	2	3	2	-6	9	-	-	w 6-1F	-
22	PSV	7	2	2	3	1	8	-	-	-	-
23	A.Bilbao	7	2	2	3	-4	8	-	-	-	-
24	Olympiakos	7	2	2	3	-5	8	-	-	-	w 3-4A
25	Napoli	7	2	2	3	-5	8	w 2-0F	-	-	-
26	Kobenhavn	7	2	2	3	-6	8	-	-	-	-
27	Brugge	7	2	1	4	-5	7	-	-	-	-
28	Bodø	7	1	3	3	-2	6	-	-	-	-
29	Benfica	7	2	0	5	-4	6	-	-	-	Jan 28
30	Paphos	7	1	3	3	-6	6	-	-	-	-
31	Union SG	7	2	0	5	-10	6	-	-	-	-
32	Ajax	7	2	0	5	-12	6	-	w 0-2F	-	-
33	E.Frankfurt	7	1	1	5	-9	4	-	-	-	-
34	Slavia	7	0	3	4	-11	3	-	-	-	-
35	Villarreal	7	0	1	6	-10	1	-	-	-	-
36	Kairat Almaty	7	0	1	6	-14	1	-	-	-	w 0-5F

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Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Benfica	2 - 0	Napoli
Benfica	0 - 1	Leverkusen
Benfica	2 - 3	Qarabag
Benfica	1 - 0	Fenerbahce
Benfica	2 - 0	Nice
Benfica	0 - 1	Barcelona
Benfica	3 - 3	Monaco
Benfica	4 - 5	Barcelona
Benfica	0 - 0	Bologna
Benfica	1 - 3	Feyenoord
Benfica	4 - 0	A.Madrid
Benfica	2 - 1	Marseille
Benfica	2 - 2	Rangers
Benfica	2 - 1	Toulouse
Benfica	3 - 3	Inter
Benfica	0 - 1	R.Sociedad
Benfica	0 - 2	Salzburg
Benfica	0 - 2	Inter
Benfica	5 - 1	Brugge
Benfica	4 - 3	Juventus

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Benfica	0 - 2	Juventus
H	Benfica	2 - 0	Napoli
A	Benfica	2 - 0	Ajax
H	Benfica	0 - 1	Leverkusen
A	Benfica	0 - 3	Newcastle
A	Benfica	0 - 1	Chelsea
H	Benfica	2 - 3	Qarabag
H	Benfica	1 - 0	Fenerbahce
A	Benfica	0 - 0	Fenerbahce
H	Benfica	2 - 0	Nice
A	Benfica	2 - 0	Nice
A	Benfica	1 - 3	Barcelona
H	Benfica	0 - 1	Barcelona
H	Benfica	3 - 3	Monaco
A	Benfica	1 - 0	Monaco
A	Benfica	2 - 0	Juventus
H	Benfica	4 - 5	Barcelona
H	Benfica	0 - 0	Bologna
A	Benfica	3 - 2	Monaco
A	Benfica	0 - 1	Bayern

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Olympiakos	3 - 4	Real Madrid
Liverpool	1 - 0	Real Madrid
Kairat Almaty	0 - 5	Real Madrid
Arsenal	3 - 0	Real Madrid
A.Madrid	1 - 0	Real Madrid
Man City	2 - 3	Real Madrid
Brest	0 - 3	Real Madrid
Atalanta	2 - 3	Real Madrid
Liverpool	2 - 0	Real Madrid
Lille	1 - 0	Real Madrid
Dortmund	0 - 2	Real Madrid
Bayern	2 - 2	Real Madrid
Man City	1 - 1	Real Madrid
RB Leipzig	0 - 1	Real Madrid
Union Berlin	2 - 3	Real Madrid
Braga	1 - 2	Real Madrid
Napoli	2 - 3	Real Madrid
Man City	4 - 0	Real Madrid
Chelsea	0 - 2	Real Madrid
Liverpool	2 - 5	Real Madrid

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Real Madrid	6 - 1	Monaco
H	Real Madrid	1 - 2	Man City
A	Real Madrid	4 - 3	Olympiakos
A	Real Madrid	0 - 1	Liverpool
H	Real Madrid	1 - 0	Juventus
A	Real Madrid	5 - 0	Kairat Almaty
H	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Marseille
H	Real Madrid	1 - 2	Arsenal
A	Real Madrid	0 - 3	Arsenal
A	Real Madrid	0 - 1	A.Madrid
H	Real Madrid	2 - 1	A.Madrid
H	Real Madrid	3 - 1	Man City
A	Real Madrid	3 - 2	Man City
A	Real Madrid	3 - 0	Brest
H	Real Madrid	5 - 1	Salzburg
A	Real Madrid	3 - 2	Atalanta
A	Real Madrid	0 - 2	Liverpool
H	Real Madrid	1 - 3	Milan
H	Real Madrid	5 - 2	Dortmund
A	Real Madrid	0 - 1	Lille

Goal Statistics

Real Madrid's forwards have been superb of late, finding the net twice or more in 4 consecutive Champions League outings. A PG of 2.6 suggests that run should continue on Wednesday night.

	Benfica 25th	Real Madrid 7th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.3 goals	2.6 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 28% 1 36% 2 22% 3 9% 4+ There is a 64% probability that Benfica will score no more than 1 goal	1 19% 2 25% 3 22% 4 14% 5+ 20% There is a 81% probability that Real Madrid will score 2 or more goals in this match

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-1 Benfica’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+13 Real Madrid have scored 13% more goals when away than predicted
	1.9 average goals scored	2.0 average goals scored
	1.6 conceded	1.5 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Champions League - 2025/2025 season

BEF

RMD

10%

better

view stats

Games scored	15		17
Failed to score	4		3
Scored first	12		13
Goals scored	35		44
Avg. goals scored	1.8		2.2
Avg. shots per game	11		15
Avg. shots per goal	6		7
Conversion rate for	16		15
Avg. XG for	1.8		2.2
KickOff rating		+10%

16%

better

BEF

RMD

view stats

Games conceded	10		13
Clean sheets	9		7
Conceded first	6		6
Goals conceded	14		21
Avg. goals conceded	0.7		1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded	6		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		8
Conversion rate against	12%		12%
Avg. XG against	0.8		1.2
KickOff rating		+16%

The line-ups for the Champions League match between Benfica v Real Madrid will show here when available.

Benfica Champions League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
11	2	3	3
A Trubin	L Barreiro	F Aursnes	R Ríos

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
A Trubin GLK	11			-
N Otamendi DEF	11			2 -
A Dedic DEF	11			1 -
F Aursnes MID	11	1	3	1 -
E Barrenechea MID	11	1		2 -
V Pavlidis FWD	11	1		-
S Dahl DEF	10	1	1	1 -
L Barreiro MID	10	2	1	1 -
R Ríos MID	10	1	1	3 -
A Silva DEF	9			2 -
F Ivanovic FWD	9	1	1	-
H Sudakov MID	7		2	-
A Schjelderup FWD	7	1	1	1 -
T Araújo DEF	6			1 -
G Prestianni FWD	5			1 -
H Araújo FWD	4			-
D Lukébakio FWD	3			2 -
J. Formoso Neto DEF	1			-
Manu MID	1			-
J. Seno Luis Rêgo MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
2	6	3	4
L Barreiro	V Pavlidis	F Aursnes	F Aursnes

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
L Barreiro MID	2	3	1	2
F Aursnes MID	1	1	3	4
E Barrenechea MID	1	2		2
V Pavlidis FWD	1	6		1
S Dahl DEF	1	1	1	3
R Ríos MID	1	6	1	1
F Ivanovic FWD	1	4	1	1
A Schjelderup FWD	1	1	1	2
N Otamendi DEF		4
A Dedic DEF		1
A Silva DEF		2		1
H Sudakov MID		3	2	3
D Lukébakio FWD		6

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
631	25	60
N Otamendi	S Dahl	A Dedic

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
N Otamendi DEF	631	12	53
E Barrenechea MID	592	17	59
R Ríos MID	460	18	56
F Aursnes MID	437	19	35
A Dedic DEF	434	23	60
A Silva DEF	401	10	25
S Dahl DEF	344	25	34
A Trubin GLK	297		6
T Araújo DEF	225	6	15
H Sudakov MID	216	6	24
V Pavlidis FWD	209	7	45
L Barreiro MID	156	8	31
A Schjelderup FWD	127	8	19
F Ivanovic FWD	99	12	45
D Lukébakio FWD	83	4	15
G Prestianni FWD	70	4	13
H Araújo FWD	13		3
J. Seno Luis Rêgo MID	9	1	1
Manu MID	3

Real Madrid Champions League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
7	11	4	3
A Tchouameni	K Mbappé	V Junior	Álvaro Fernandez

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
A Güler MID	7		3	1 -
A Tchouameni MID	7			1 -
V Junior FWD	7	1	4	1 -
T Courtois GLK	6		1	-
R. Asencio del Rosario DEF	6			-
J Bellingham MID	6	2	1	2 -
F Valverde MID	6		2	-
K Mbappé FWD	6	11		-
B Díaz FWD	6	1		1 -
Álvaro Fernandez DEF	5			3 -
E Camavinga MID	5	1	1	1 -
D. Huijsen DEF	4			1 -
F García DEF	4			-
D Ceballos MID	4			-
F. Mastantuono FWD	4	1		-
Rodrygo FWD	4	1	1	1 -
G. García Torres FWD	4		1	-
T Alexander-Arnold DEF	3			-
Éder Militão DEF	3			1 -
D Carvajal DEF	2			1
A Lunin GLK	1			-
D Alaba DEF	1			-
A Rüdiger DEF	1			1 -
F Mendy DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
11	21	4	5
K Mbappé	K Mbappé	V Junior	V Junior

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
K Mbappé FWD	11	21		3
J Bellingham MID	2	4	1
V Junior FWD	1	6	4	5
B Díaz FWD	1	5		1
E Camavinga MID	1	1	1	1
F. Mastantuono FWD	1	5		2
Rodrygo FWD	1	4	1	4
A Güler MID		4	3	2
A Tchouameni MID		2		1
T Courtois GLK			1	1
F Valverde MID			2	1
D. Huijsen DEF		1
G. García Torres FWD			1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
414	16	37
A Tchouameni	Álvaro Fernandez	Álvaro Fernandez

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Tchouameni MID	414	10	27
F Valverde MID	334	6	15
A Güler MID	300	7	25
Álvaro Fernandez DEF	266	16	37
D. Huijsen DEF	240	7	23
R. Asencio del Rosario DEF	235	3	13
J Bellingham MID	214	11	35
V Junior FWD	205	4	28
D Ceballos MID	200	5	9
K Mbappé FWD	193		23
T Courtois GLK	165		1
E Camavinga MID	152	8	19
Éder Militão DEF	139	4	15
Rodrygo FWD	86	1	17
B Díaz FWD	81	4	10
F. Mastantuono FWD	72	3	15
F García DEF	62	1	3
T Alexander-Arnold DEF	62	2	2
D Alaba DEF	49	1	2
F Mendy DEF	48		4
A Rüdiger DEF	43	1	2
A Lunin GLK	42
D Carvajal DEF	36	2	2
G. García Torres FWD	19	1	1