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Lanús v Vélez Sarsfield : Primera División match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mon 12th Oct, 20:00 BST, Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor, Lanús

the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor faithful welcome Vélez Sarsfield's fans on Monday night, as Mauricio Pellegrino's Lanús face Guillermo Barros Schelotto's team in the Primera División. Below you'll find unique stats for the biggest betting markets, from from under 0.5 goals to over 5.5, including form and historical head to head (H2H) data. Predictions are produced from these, and the odds come directly from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals as a betting market simply means there will only be a maximum of 2 goals scored in total by Lanus and Velez during the traditional 90 minutes. It's a bet the statistics below and the odds both suggest is worth considering, and an outcome that we've seen before when these sides go head-to-head. Without a strong favourite to win the game, our best bet prediction for this one is under 2.5 goals.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Lanus are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 35% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.15.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Lanus 35%	23/20	-
Draw 31%	9/5	-
Velez 34%	13/5	-
Draw 0-0 14%	5/1	-
Lanus 1-0 14%	9/2	-
Velez 1-0 14%	13/2	-
Draw 1-1 14%	5/1	-
Lanus 2-0 7%	8/1	-
Velez 2-0 7%	16/1	-
Lanus 2-1 7%	9/1	-
Velez 2-1 7%	14/1	-
Draw 2-2 3%	18/1	-
Lanus 3-0 2%	20/1	-
Velez 3-0 2%	40/1	-
Lanus 3-1 2%	22/1	-
Velez 3-1 2%	40/1	-
Lanus 3-2 1%	40/1	-
Velez 3-2 1%	50/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 31%	17/10	-
Under 2.5 Goals 69%	4/9	-
Home 1st Goal 45%	5/6	-
Away 1st Goal 45%	6/4	-
No 1st Goal 10%	5/1	-
BTTS - Yes 39%	6/5	-
BTTS - No 61%	8/13	-
BTTS - Home Win 11%	5/1	-
BTTS - Draw 17%	15/4	-
BTTS - Away Win 11%	17/2	-
Home/draw 66%	2/7	-
Away/draw 65%	4/6	-
Home/away 69%	2/5	-
Over 1.5 Goals 58%	8/15	-
Under 1.5 Goals 42%	11/8	-
Over 3.5 Goals 13%	9/2	-
Under 3.5 Goals 87%	1/7	-
Over 4.5 Goals 5%	12/1	-
Under 4.5 Goals 95%	1/25	-
Over 5.5 Goals 1%	28/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 99%	1/150	-
Over 0.5 Goals 86%	1/8	-
Under 0.5 Goals 14%	5/1	-
Home DNB 57%	8/15	-
Away DNB 56%	11/8	-
Lanus win to nil 24%	9/4	-
Velez win to nil 23%	4/1	-
Lanus / Lanus 22%	11/4	-
Lanus / Velez 2%	40/1	-
Lanus / Draw 5%	14/1	-
Draw / Lanus 16%	4/1	-
Draw / Velez 12%	6/1	-
Draw / Draw 21%	3/1	-
Velez / Lanus 2%	33/1	-
Velez / Velez 14%	5/1	-
Velez / Draw 5%	14/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Velez have drawn 4 consecutive away league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Lanus	2 - 1	Estudiantes
Lanus	1 - 0	Defensa
Lanus	1 - 1	Argentinos
Lanus	1 - 3	Independiente
Lanus	0 - 1	Instituto
Lanus	1 - 0	San Lorenzo
Lanus	0 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
Lanus	0 - 0	Central Cor
Lanus	1 - 0	Banfield
Lanus	0 - 0	Platense
Lanus	5 - 0	Newells
Lanus	0 - 3	Boca Juniors
Lanus	1 - 1	Tal Cordoba
Lanus	2 - 1	U Santa Fe
Lanus	0 - 1	Tig
Lanus	3 - 1	A. Tucuman
Lanus	2 - 0	Godoy Cruz
Lanus	2 - 1	San Lorenzo
Lanus	2 - 1	Platense
Lanus	1 - 0	Independiente Rivadavia

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

9 / 20

Clean sheets

11 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Lanus	2 - 1	Estudiantes
A	Lanus	3 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
H	Lanus	1 - 0	Defensa
A	Lanus	0 - 1	Boca Juniors
H	Lanus	1 - 1	Argentinos
H	Lanus	1 - 3	Independiente
A	Lanus	3 - 0	Tal Cordoba
A	Lanus	1 - 2	U Santa Fe
H	Lanus	0 - 1	Instituto
H	Lanus	1 - 0	San Lorenzo
A	Lanus	0 - 2	Argentinos
H	Lanus	0 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
H	Lanus	0 - 0	Central Cor
A	Lanus	0 - 1	Gimnasia Mendoza
H	Lanus	1 - 0	Banfield
H	Lanus	0 - 0	Platense
A	Lanus	1 - 2	Argentinos
A	Lanus	1 - 0	Velez
H	Lanus	5 - 0	Newells
A	Lanus	1 - 0	Estudiantes

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Newells	1 - 1	Velez
Deportivo Riestra	1 - 1	Velez
River Plate	2 - 2	Velez
Boca Juniors	1 - 1	Velez
Tal Cordoba	1 - 3	Velez
San Lorenzo	0 - 0	Velez
Gimnasia Mendoza	3 - 2	Velez
Platense	0 - 2	Velez
Tig	1 - 1	Velez
Estudiantes	0 - 1	Velez
Defensa	1 - 1	Velez
Independiente	1 - 1	Velez
Instituto	0 - 1	Velez
Gimnasia	2 - 0	Velez
Sarmiento	0 - 2	Velez
Deportivo Riestra	2 - 2	Velez
SM San Juan	1 - 2	Velez
Huracan	0 - 0	Velez
Godoy Cruz	0 - 2	Velez
San Lorenzo	1 - 0	Velez

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Velez	3 - 2	Tig
A	Velez	1 - 1	Newells
H	Velez	1 - 0	Estudiantes
A	Velez	1 - 1	Deportivo Riestra
A	Velez	2 - 2	River Plate
H	Velez	1 - 1	Defensa
A	Velez	1 - 1	Boca Juniors
H	Velez	1 - 0	Independiente
A	Velez	3 - 1	Tal Cordoba
H	Velez	1 - 0	Instituto
H	Velez	0 - 1	Gimnasia
H	Velez	1 - 1	Newells
H	Velez	2 - 2	U Santa Fe
A	Velez	0 - 0	San Lorenzo
H	Velez	1 - 0	Central Cor
A	Velez	2 - 3	Gimnasia Mendoza
H	Velez	0 - 1	Lanus
A	Velez	2 - 0	Platense
A	Velez	1 - 1	Tig
A	Velez	1 - 0	Estudiantes

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Lanus

Velez

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

3 / 5

4 / 5

Clean sheets

1 / 5

2 / 5

LAN

VEL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Lanus
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 1	Velez
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	1 - 2	Velez
Lanus	3 - 1

Velez

Lanus

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

4 / 6

3 / 6

Clean sheets

3 / 6

2 / 6

LAN

VEL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Velez
	0 - 1	Lanus
Velez	3 - 0
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Velez	3 - 1
Velez	5 - 1
Velez	4 - 0

Goal Statistics

Lanús's defensive record is very strong, M. Pellegrino's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive Primera División outings. An average PG rating of 1.0 for Vélez Sarsfield makes sense in this context.

	Lanus 6th	Velez 3rd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.0 goals	1.0 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 38% 1 37% 2 18% 3 4+ There is a 75% probability of Lanus scoring 1 goal or less	0 38% 1 37% 2 18% 3 4+ There is a 75% probability of Velez scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-1 Lanus’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+32 Velez have scored 32% more goals when away than predicted
	1.3 average goals scored	1.3 average goals scored
	0.8 conceded	0.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

LAN

VEL

17%

better

view stats

Games scored	18		23
Failed to score	9		4
Scored first	12		17
Goals scored	31		33
Avg. goals scored	1.1		1.2
Avg. shots per game	10		10
Avg. shots per goal	8		8
Conversion rate for	12		13
Avg. XG for	1.3		1.1
KickOff rating		+17%

LAN

VEL

11%

better

view stats

Games conceded	16		17
Clean sheets	11		10
Conceded first	12		8
Goals conceded	26		22
Avg. goals conceded	1		0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	10		13
Conversion rate against	10%		8%
Avg. XG against	1		1
KickOff rating		+11%

Lanus v Velez Primera División lLine ups will show here when available.

Lanus Primera División squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
25	4	6	9
S Marcich	Y. Valois Murillo	E Salvio	R Carrera

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
S Marcich DEF	26	1	2	6 -
F Biafore MID	26	3		2 -
E Salvio FWD	26	2	6	1 -
N Losada GLK	25			4 -
C Izquierdoz DEF	23	3	1	7 -
A Cardozo MID	23		1	-
L Besozzi FWD	23		2	1 -
T Guidara DEF	22		1	5 -
R Carrera MID	22	2	4	8 1
M Sepúlveda MID	22		2	3 -
D. Medina MID	21			6 -
Y. Valois Murillo FWD	19	4	1	1 -
J Canale DEF	18		1	2 -
R López DEF	17			3 -
F Watson MID	17			1 -
G Pérez DEF	13		1	2 -
M Moreno MID	10	3	1	1 -
A Dure FWD	10	3		-
N Morgantini DEF	4			-
F. Sánchez MID	4			-
B. Acosta FWD	3			1 -
F Petroli GLK	2			-
T. Laplace MID	2			-
L. Romero DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	16	6	6
Y. Valois Murillo	E Salvio	E Salvio	E Salvio

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Y. Valois Murillo FWD	4	6	1	1
F Biafore MID	3	8		1
C Izquierdoz DEF	3	5	1	2
M Moreno MID	3	14	1	4
A Dure FWD	3	12
E Salvio FWD	2	16	6	6
R Carrera MID	2	12	4	5
S Marcich DEF	1	4	2	3
A Cardozo MID		2	1	2
L Besozzi FWD		3	2	3
T Guidara DEF			1	3
M Sepúlveda MID		3	2	5
D. Medina MID		1
J Canale DEF		1	1	1
R López DEF		1		2
F Watson MID		7		1
G Pérez DEF		1	1	2
F. Sánchez MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1304	55	126
A Cardozo	S Marcich	S Marcich

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Cardozo MID	1304	32	98
C Izquierdoz DEF	1223	32	119
S Marcich DEF	944	55	126
F Biafore MID	844	33	77
J Canale DEF	807	21	79
T Guidara DEF	804	48	109
E Salvio FWD	701	27	91
R López DEF	665	19	74
D. Medina MID	659	34	59
N Losada GLK	640		13
R Carrera MID	464	27	104
G Pérez DEF	443	18	33
M Sepúlveda MID	383	13	57
F Watson MID	346	12	42
L Besozzi FWD	345	16	52
M Moreno MID	236	6	30
Y. Valois Murillo FWD	164	2	48
A Dure FWD	138	3	35
N Morgantini DEF	133	3	9
F. Sánchez MID	101	1	2
F Petroli GLK	68
L. Romero DEF	45	2	4
B. Acosta FWD	16	1	2
T. Laplace MID	4	1	1

Velez Primera División squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
26	6	6	7
E Gómez	M Lanzini	D Valdés	E Gómez

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
M Lanzini MID	27	6		3 -
R Aliendro MID	27	1		1 -
E Gómez DEF	26		4	7 -
L Robertone MID	25	1	1	6 1
J García DEF	23	2	1	3 -
E Mammana DEF	23			1 -
L Magallán DEF	22		1	3 -
C Baeza MID	21			5 -
M Pellegrini FWD	21	3	5	7 -
D. Godoy FWD	21		3	2 -
D Valdés MID	20	3	6	-
T. Silvero DEF	14	1	1	4 -
L.Feler MID	12			-
A. Zahir Verón FWD	12			-
T Marchiori GLK	10			-
Simón Escobar DEF	8			2 -
T. Aguirre FWD	7	1	1	-
M. Arias MID	6		1	1 -
J. Policella FWD	4	1		-
J. Gordon DEF	3	1		-
R Martínez FWD	3	4		-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	16	6	10
M Lanzini	M Lanzini	D Valdés	M Pellegrini

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Lanzini MID	6	16		8
R Martínez FWD	4	6		1
M Pellegrini FWD	3	11	5	10
D Valdés MID	3	7	6	7
J García DEF	2	5	1	1
R Aliendro MID	1	6
L Robertone MID	1	6	1	2
T. Silvero DEF	1	5	1	2
T. Aguirre FWD	1	1	1	1
J. Policella FWD	1	3		1
J. Gordon DEF	1	2
E Gómez DEF			4	2
E Mammana DEF		3
L Magallán DEF		1	1	1
D. Godoy FWD		9	3	3
L.Feler MID		1		1
A. Zahir Verón FWD		4
M. Arias MID		1	1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1069	69	141
E Gómez	R Aliendro	R Aliendro

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
E Gómez DEF	1069	43	135
M Lanzini MID	1024	27	118
J García DEF	905	46	86
R Aliendro MID	861	69	141
L Robertone MID	859	39	100
L Magallán DEF	850	30	72
E Mammana DEF	846	25	59
C Baeza MID	807	36	79
T. Silvero DEF	596	21	69
M Pellegrini FWD	565	40	134
D Valdés MID	463	15	60
T Marchiori GLK	269		8
D. Godoy FWD	244	14	60
Simón Escobar DEF	151	15	32
L.Feler MID	127	5	11
J. Gordon DEF	94	10	16
A. Zahir Verón FWD	74	3	14
J. Policella FWD	68	6	16
R Martínez FWD	63	1	18
M. Arias MID	57	2	9
T. Aguirre FWD	38	2	14