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Athletico PR v Gremio : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 3rd May, 00:30 BST, Arena de Baixada, Curitiba

Luís Manuel Ribeiro de Castro pays counterpart Odair Hellmann a visit on Sunday morning in the Serie A, as their Gremio and Athletico PR charges face each other at the Arena de Baixada. Quite simply, we want you to win betting on this game. To this end, stats for every betting market have been laid out below, with head-to-head history and statistically significant form streaks highlighted. Odds are also given.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

It's our view that there's not a clear favourite to to get the win in this one, but does appear clear is that the odds are pointing towards it'll have no more than 3 goals. Our statistical analysis draws the same conclusion. Athletico PR and Gremio have delivered a host of under 3.5 goal games of late, and key performance statistics point towards an extension of that record. We feel confident predicting under 3.5 goals on Sunday morning, and the bookies have it priced at 1.30.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Athletico PR are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 59% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.96.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Athletico PR
59%
24/25-
Draw
24%
11/5-
Gremio
17%
27/10-
Athletico PR 1-0
14%
13/2-
Athletico PR 2-0
12%
17/2-
Draw 1-1
11%
5/1-
Athletico PR 2-1
9%
8/1-
Draw 0-0
8%
17/2-
Athletico PR 3-0
7%
18/1-
Gremio 1-0
7%
10/1-
Athletico PR 3-1
5%
16/1-
Gremio 2-1
4%
12/1-
Draw 2-2
4%
14/1-
Athletico PR 4-0
3%
40/1-
Gremio 2-0
3%
18/1-
Athletico PR 4-1
2%
33/1-
Athletico PR 3-2
2%
28/1-
Gremio 3-1
1%
28/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
1/1-
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
4/5-
Home 1st Goal
57%
8/11-
Away 1st Goal
38%
11/8-
No 1st Goal
6%
17/2-
BTTS - Yes
44%
4/5-
BTTS - No
56%
19/20-
BTTS - Home Win
22%
10/3-
BTTS - Draw
15%
10/3-
BTTS - Away Win
7%
13/2-
Home/draw
83%
2/7-
Away/draw
41%
4/5-
Home/away
76%
4/11-
Over 1.5 Goals
71%
1/3-
Under 1.5 Goals
29%
12/5-
Over 3.5 Goals
24%
5/2-
Under 3.5 Goals
76%
3/10-
Over 4.5 Goals
11%
6/1-
Under 4.5 Goals
89%
1/10-
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
14/1-
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/33-
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1/16-
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
17/2-
Home DNB
76%
4/9-
Away DNB
34%
13/8-
Athletico PR win to nil
37%
5/2-
Gremio win to nil
10%
11/2-
Athletico PR / Athletico PR
25%
9/4-
Athletico PR / Gremio
2%
33/1-
Athletico PR / Draw
6%
12/1-
Draw / Athletico PR
16%
4/1-
Draw / Gremio
10%
7/1-
Draw / Draw
16%
4/1-
Gremio / Athletico PR
4%
22/1-
Gremio / Gremio
14%
5/1-
Gremio / Draw
5%
14/1-
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
7
Gremio have not won in 7 consecutive away league games
Athletico PR 6TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
13
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
12
D
4
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Athletico PR2 - 0Chapecoense
Athletico PR4 - 1Botafogo
Athletico PR2 - 0Cortiba
Athletico PR2 - 1Cruzeiro
Athletico PR0 - 1Corinthians
Athletico PR2 - 1Santos
Athletico PR1 - 0America
Athletico PR2 - 0Volta Redonda
Athletico PR2 - 0Amazonas
Athletico PR1 - 1Avai
Athletico PR1 - 0Operario
Athletico PR2 - 0Vila Nova
Athletico PR2 - 1Novorizontin
Athletico PR1 - 1Cuiaba
Athletico PR1 - 1Paysandu
Athletico PR1 - 1Ferroviaria
Athletico PR0 - 1Goias
Athletico PR0 - 1Cortiba
Athletico PR2 - 1Remo
Athletico PR0 - 1Atletico Go
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
11
D
3
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AAthletico PR0 - 1Palmeiras
HAthletico PR2 - 0Chapecoense
AAthletico PR1 - 2A Mineiro
AAthletico PR0 - 3Bahia
HAthletico PR4 - 1Botafogo
HAthletico PR2 - 0Cortiba
HAthletico PR2 - 1Cruzeiro
AAthletico PR2 - 3Fluminense
AAthletico PR1 - 1Bragantino
HAthletico PR0 - 1Corinthians
HAthletico PR2 - 1Santos
AAthletico PR1 - 0Internacional
HAthletico PR1 - 0America
AAthletico PR2 - 1Ferroviaria
HAthletico PR2 - 0Volta Redonda
AAthletico PR1 - 0Goias
HAthletico PR2 - 0Amazonas
AAthletico PR0 - 0Cortiba
HAthletico PR1 - 1Avai
AAthletico PR1 - 2Remo
Gremio 13TH
20 league games
Away
7
Overall
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
31
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
3
Draw
6
Lost
11
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Cruzeiro2 - 0Gremio
Internacional0 - 0Gremio
Palmeiras2 - 1Gremio
Vasco d Gama2 - 1Gremio
Chapecoense1 - 1Gremio
Sao Paulo2 - 0Gremio
Fluminense2 - 1Gremio
S. Recife0 - 4Gremio
Botafogo3 - 2Gremio
Fortaleza2 - 2Gremio
Corinthians2 - 0Gremio
Bahia4 - 0Gremio
Bragantino1 - 0Gremio
Santos1 - 1Gremio
Internacional2 - 3Gremio
Flamengo1 - 1Gremio
A Mineiro1 - 3Gremio
Fluminense1 - 0Gremio
Palmeiras1 - 0Gremio
Vasco d Gama1 - 1Gremio
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AGremio0 - 2Cruzeiro
AGremio0 - 0Internacional
HGremio0 - 0Remo
AGremio1 - 2Palmeiras
AGremio1 - 2Vasco d Gama
HGremio2 - 0Vitoria
AGremio1 - 1Chapecoense
HGremio1 - 1Bragantino
HGremio2 - 1A Mineiro
AGremio0 - 2Sao Paulo
HGremio5 - 3Botafogo
AGremio1 - 2Fluminense
AGremio4 - 0S. Recife
HGremio1 - 2Fluminense
HGremio3 - 2Palmeiras
AGremio2 - 3Botafogo
HGremio2 - 0Vasco d Gama
AGremio2 - 2Fortaleza
HGremio0 - 1Cruzeiro
AGremio0 - 2Corinthians
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Athletico PR since 2018
Athletico PR
Gremio
Goals: Scored
10
9
Games: Scored
5 / 6
5 / 6
Clean sheets
1 / 6
1 / 6
APR
3
GRE
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Athletico PR
0 - 2Gremio
1 - 2Gremio
Athletico PR4 - 2
1 - 2Gremio
Athletico PR2 - 0
Athletico PR2 - 1
League games at Gremio since 2018
Gremio
Athletico PR
Goals: Scored
6
4
Games: Scored
4 / 6
3 / 6
Clean sheets
3 / 6
2 / 6
APR
2
D
1
GRE
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Gremio
Gremio2 - 0
1 - 2Athletico PR
0 - 1Athletico PR
Gremio1 - 0
Gremio2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Goal Statistics

Scoring more than 1 goal looks unlikely for Gremio, with L. Ribeiro de Castro's men failing to score in 3 consecutive Serie A matches.

Athletico PR 6th Gremio 13th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.7
goals
0.8
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
18%
1
31%
2
26%
3
15%
4+
There is a 82% probability that Athletico PR will score 1 or more goals
0
46%
1
36%
2
14%
3
4+
There is a 82% probability of Gremio scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-3
Athletico PR’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+2
Gremio’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.4
average goals scored
1.1
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.6
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season
Athletico PR
PG (predicted goals)
Gremio
1.7
0.8
Attack rating
21%
better
APR
GRE
view stats
Games scored9
8
Failed to score3
4
Scored first7
3
Goals scored17
14
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.2
Avg. shots per game8
9
Avg. shots per goal6
8
Conversion rate for17
13
Avg. XG for1.1
1.1
KickOff rating
+21%
Defence rating
5%
better
APR
GRE
view stats
Games conceded9
9
Clean sheets3
3
Conceded first5
7
Goals conceded14
16
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded7
11
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
8
Conversion rate against16%
13%
Avg. XG against0.9
1.5
KickOff rating
+5%

Athletico PR v Gremio Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Athletico PR Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE
Gremio Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE