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Bahia v Sao Paulo : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Thu 29th Oct, 00:30 BST, Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador

Thursday morning sees Rogério Mücke Ceni’s Bahia and Dorival Silvestre Júnior’s Sao Paulo go up against one another in a Serie A battle at the Arena Fonte Nova. This preview has odds for seventeen different betting markets, alongside supporting data that updates as you go through them. Our predictions run off 20-game form, so all stats are shown for each side's last 20 too. Home vs away and overall performance can be viewed, while you'll also find head to head (H2H) history towards the bottom of the page.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We don't believe there is a clear favourite to claim victory here, but does appear clear is that the odds suggest it'll have 3 goals or less. Our statistical analysis is inline with them too. Bahia and Sao Paulo have delivered a lot of under 3.5 goal games lately, and key performance statistics point towards an extension of that record. We have confidence in predicting under 3.5 goals on Thursday morning, and the bookmakers have it priced at 1.30.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Bahia
52%
20/23-
Draw
25%
12/5-
Sao Paulo
22%
14/5-
Bahia 1-0
13%
6/1-
Draw 1-1
12%
11/2-
Bahia 2-0
10%
8/1-
Bahia 2-1
9%
15/2-
Draw 0-0
8%
9/1-
Sao Paulo 1-0
8%
10/1-
Sao Paulo 2-1
6%
12/1-
Bahia 3-0
5%
16/1-
Bahia 3-1
5%
16/1-
Draw 2-2
4%
14/1-
Sao Paulo 2-0
4%
18/1-
Bahia 3-2
2%
25/1-
Bahia 4-0
2%
33/1-
Bahia 4-1
2%
33/1-
Sao Paulo 3-1
2%
33/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
1/1-
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
4/5-
Home 1st Goal
54%
4/6-
Away 1st Goal
41%
7/5-
No 1st Goal
5%
9/1-
BTTS - Yes
48%
4/5-
BTTS - No
52%
19/20-
BTTS - Home Win
21%
10/3-
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/4-
BTTS - Away Win
10%
13/2-
Home/draw
78%
1/4-
Away/draw
48%
5/6-
Home/away
75%
3/10-
Over 1.5 Goals
71%
1/3-
Under 1.5 Goals
29%
12/5-
Over 3.5 Goals
24%
5/2-
Under 3.5 Goals
76%
3/10-
Over 4.5 Goals
11%
11/2-
Under 4.5 Goals
89%
1/9-
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
14/1-
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/33-
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1/16-
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
9/1-
Home DNB
70%
2/5-
Away DNB
40%
7/4-
Bahia win to nil
32%
12/5-
Sao Paulo win to nil
13%
11/2-
Bahia / Bahia
27%
21/10-
Bahia / Sao Paulo
2%
33/1-
Bahia / Draw
6%
12/1-
Draw / Bahia
17%
4/1-
Draw / Sao Paulo
10%
7/1-
Draw / Draw
15%
9/2-
Sao Paulo / Bahia
4%
22/1-
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo
13%
11/2-
Sao Paulo / Draw
6%
14/1-
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
Bahia 7TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bahia0 - 3Flamengo
Bahia1 - 0Mirassol
Bahia2 - 1Remo
Bahia3 - 2Internacional
Bahia0 - 0Vasco d Gama
Bahia1 - 1Corinthians
Bahia2 - 0Chapecoense
Bahia2 - 1Botafogo
Bahia1 - 1Gremio
Bahia1 - 2Cruzeiro
Bahia2 - 2Santos
Bahia1 - 2Palmeiras
Bahia3 - 0Athletico PR
Bahia2 - 0Bragantino
Bahia1 - 1Vitoria
Bahia1 - 1Fluminense
Bahia2 - 0S. Recife
Bahia1 - 0Vasco d Gama
Bahia2 - 3Fortaleza
Bahia2 - 1Bragantino
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
7
Draw
8
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HBahia0 - 3Flamengo
HBahia1 - 0Mirassol
ABahia0 - 1Palmeiras
ABahia1 - 2Athletico PR
HBahia2 - 1Remo
ABahia3 - 2Bragantino
HBahia3 - 2Internacional
ABahia2 - 0Vitoria
ABahia3 - 3Chapecoense
HBahia0 - 0Vasco d Gama
ABahia0 - 0Fluminense
HBahia1 - 1Corinthians
ABahia1 - 1A Mineiro
HBahia2 - 0Chapecoense
HBahia2 - 1Botafogo
ABahia2 - 3Cortiba
HBahia1 - 1Gremio
HBahia1 - 2Cruzeiro
ABahia2 - 2Sao Paulo
HBahia2 - 2Santos
Sao Paulo 9TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
14
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
3
D
3
Lost
14
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Cruzeiro2 - 0Sao Paulo
Palmeiras2 - 0Sao Paulo
Chapecoense1 - 0Sao Paulo
Gremio2 - 1Sao Paulo
Flamengo1 - 1Sao Paulo
Remo1 - 0Sao Paulo
Fluminense2 - 1Sao Paulo
Corinthians3 - 2Sao Paulo
Vasco d Gama2 - 1Sao Paulo
Vitoria2 - 0Sao Paulo
Internacional1 - 1Sao Paulo
A Mineiro1 - 0Sao Paulo
Bragantino1 - 2Sao Paulo
Cortiba0 - 1Sao Paulo
Santos1 - 1Sao Paulo
Vitoria1 - 0Sao Paulo
Fluminense6 - 0Sao Paulo
Corinthians3 - 1Sao Paulo
Vasco d Gama0 - 2Sao Paulo
Mirassol3 - 0Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
6
D
4
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HSao Paulo1 - 0Vasco d Gama
HSao Paulo2 - 1Vitoria
ASao Paulo0 - 2Cruzeiro
HSao Paulo1 - 2Santos
HSao Paulo1 - 0Internacional
ASao Paulo0 - 2Palmeiras
HSao Paulo2 - 0A Mineiro
HSao Paulo2 - 1Bragantino
ASao Paulo0 - 1Chapecoense
HSao Paulo1 - 1Cortiba
ASao Paulo1 - 2Gremio
ASao Paulo1 - 1Flamengo
HSao Paulo1 - 2Athletico PR
ASao Paulo0 - 1Remo
HSao Paulo1 - 1Botafogo
ASao Paulo1 - 2Fluminense
ASao Paulo2 - 3Corinthians
HSao Paulo2 - 2Bahia
HSao Paulo1 - 0Mirassol
ASao Paulo1 - 2Vasco d Gama
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Bahia since 2018
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
6
10
Games: Scored
4 / 7
5 / 7
Clean sheets
2 / 7
3 / 7
BAH
2
D
2
SAO
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Bahia
Bahia2 - 1
0 - 3Sao Paulo
0 - 1Sao Paulo
Bahia1 - 0
1 - 3Sao Paulo
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
League games at Sao Paulo since 2018
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Goals: Scored
10
4
Games: Scored
6 / 8
3 / 8
Clean sheets
5 / 8
2 / 8
D
4
SAO
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
Draw2 - 2Draw
Sao Paulo2 - 0
Sao Paulo3 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Sao Paulo1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Sao Paulo1 - 0
Goal Statistics
Bahia 7th Sao Paulo 9th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.6
goals
0.9
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
13%
4+
There is a 79% probability that Bahia will score 1 or more goals
0
40%
1
37%
2
17%
3
4+
There is a 77% probability of Sao Paulo scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-13
Bahia have scored 13% fewer goals at home than predicted
-33
Sao Paulo have scored 33% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.5
average goals scored
0.7
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season
Bahia
PG (predicted goals)
Sao Paulo
1.6
0.9
Attack rating
8%
better
BAH
SAO
view stats
Games scored26
24
Failed to score4
7
Scored first12
17
Goals scored44
36
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.2
Avg. shots per game11
9
Avg. shots per goal8
8
Conversion rate for13
13
Avg. XG for1.6
1.5
KickOff rating
+8%
Defence rating
3%
better
BAH
SAO
view stats
Games conceded21
24
Clean sheets9
7
Conceded first16
14
Goals conceded36
35
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded11
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded9
8
Conversion rate against11%
12%
Avg. XG against1.3
1.2
KickOff rating
+3%

Bahia v Sao Paulo Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
291049
E PulgaL JubaR NestorN Acevedo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
E Pulga FWD3032
5
-
Ademir FWD2911
2
-
N Acevedo MID2811
9
-
L Juba DEF27101
4
-
J Lucas MID2743
6
-
D Duarte DEF2431
4
-
R Nestor MID2414
4
-
W José FWD2431
1
-
Erick MID234
6
-
C Olivera FWD2312
4
-
Ronaldo  GLK22
2
-
S Suay MID214
1
-
C Alexandre MID20
1
-
Everaldo FWD184
2
-
M Araújo FWD181
2
1
R. Gómez DEF161
3
-
M Sanabria FWD1621
2
-
A Véliz FWD1231
-
L Vieira GLK9
-
M Victor DEF9
-
K. Furquim FWD7
1
-
J Costa DEF6
3
-
Kanu DEF6
2
-
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD4
1
D. Martins Almeida de Lira MID3
-
R. Barbosa Sousa FWD3
-
M Moreno DEF2
1
-
Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
281037
RafaelJ CalleriWendellE Díaz
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Rafael GLK28
1
-
J Calleri FWD26101
6
-
Danielzinho MID2511
2
-
M Antônio MID2412
2
-
Luciano FWD2492
5
-
Sabino DEF2311
2
-
Ferreira FWD234
2
-
Artur FWD2232
2
-
L Ramon DEF212
2
1
P Maia MID211
3
-
Wendell DEF203
5
-
D Bobadilla MID202
3
-
R Arboleda DEF18
1
-
A Silva FWD16
5
-
Cauly MID151
-
E Díaz DEF131
7
-
R Tolói DEF12
3
-
L Moura FWD1011
-
Iago DEF911
2
-
C Soares DEF8
1
-
D. Ferreira MID8
3
-
L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira DEF71
1
1
N. Araújo da Costa Júnior MID7
-
G. Domingos Santana FWD71
1
-
V Sá FWD71
-
P. Cardoso de Lima DEF51
-
D Duarte DEF5
-
P. da Silva Ferreira MID5
-
P. dos Santos FWD5
1
-
L. Marques Alencar FWD4
-
C Coronel GLK3
-
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD2
-
N. Bosshardt DEF1
-
A Buta DEF1
-