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Southampton v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 11th Apr, 15:00 BST, St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

the St. Mary's Stadium masses welcome Derby County's travelling contingent on Saturday afternoon, as William Still's Southampton go head to head with John Eustace's side in the Championship. All of the key stats for the tie, including head to heads (H2Hs), predictions and odds across 17 of the biggest betting markets are covered in this preview. It's all brought together specifically to help you make a smart bet.


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In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Southampton
42%
--
Draw
27%
--
Derby
31%
--
Draw 1-1
13%
--
Southampton 1-0
11%
--
Derby 1-0
10%
--
Southampton 2-1
9%
--
Draw 0-0
9%
--
Southampton 2-0
8%
--
Derby 2-1
7%
--
Derby 2-0
5%
--
Draw 2-2
5%
--
Southampton 3-1
4%
--
Southampton 3-0
3%
--
Derby 3-1
3%
--
Southampton 3-2
2%
--
Derby 3-0
2%
--
Derby 3-2
2%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
--
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
--
Home 1st Goal
49%
--
Away 1st Goal
45%
--
No 1st Goal
5%
--
BTTS - Yes
50%
--
BTTS - No
50%
--
BTTS - Home Win
18%
--
BTTS - Draw
19%
--
BTTS - Away Win
14%
--
Home/draw
69%
--
Away/draw
58%
--
Home/away
73%
--
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
--
Under 1.5 Goals
30%
--
Over 3.5 Goals
23%
--
Under 3.5 Goals
77%
--
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
--
Under 4.5 Goals
90%
--
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
--
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
--
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
--
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
--
Home DNB
61%
--
Away DNB
50%
--
Southampton win to nil
24%
--
Derby win to nil
18%
--
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Southampton have played 39 matches so far this season and lay in 6th place in the Championship league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 30 games against teams below in the table, having won 16, drawn 8 and lost 6 matches. They have kept 9 clean sheets and have failed to score in 3 fixtures. Southampton have outscored their opponents by 63 goals to 56 goals.

Home League Performance

Southampton have played 19 games at home winning 10, drawing 6 and losing 3 games. They have scored 29 goals, kept 9 clean sheets and conceded 14 goals at home.

Derby are in 8th position in the Championship on 60 points having played 39 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

7 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 23 goals and kept 5 clean sheets. They have scored 29 goals in total and failed to score in 3 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

12 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 6 games, drawn 4 and won 2. Derby have conceded 22 goals, scored 16, failed to score in 1 fixture and have kept 1 clean sheet.

Won
Draw
Lost
Southampton
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry3924874180 
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
2
M'Boro39201182271 
d
 
1-1F
l
 
4-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
3
Ipswich38191272869 
Apr 28
d
 
1-1A
l
 
1-2A
d
 
2-2A
4
Millwall3920910969 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
3-2F
d
 
1-1A
l
 
1-0A
5
Hull3920613566 
l
 
1-2A
l
 
3-1A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-2A
6
Southampton391712101563 
-
-
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
7
Wrexham39171210963 
w
 
2-1A
Apr 7
l
 
1-2A
d
 
1-1A
8
Derby3917913860 
Apr 11
d
 
1-1F
-
-
9
Watford39141411456 
w
 
1-0F
d
 
2-2F
l
 
2-3F
l
 
2-0A
10
Norwich3916617654 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1A
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
11
Birmingham39141114-153 
w
 
3-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-0F
d
 
1-1F
12
QPR3915816-653 
w
 
5-0F
w
 
1-2F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
13
Preston39131313-452 
l
 
0-2A
May 2
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
14
Swansea3915717-552 
d
 
0-00-0
Apr 18
w
 
2-0F
w
 
1-2F
15
Stoke3914916351 
l
 
1-2A
w
 
0-2F
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
16
Bristol C3914916-151 
Apr 21
l
 
3-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-5F
17
Sheff Utd3915519050 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-2A
May 2
w
 
1-3F
18
Charlton39121215-1048 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
1-5F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
19
Blackburn39111018-1343 
Apr 25
l
 
2-1F
w
 
3-1A
w
 
1-2F
20
West Brom39111018-1443 
w
 
3-2F
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-1F
21
Portsmouth38101018-1740 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-1F
22
Leicester39111216-939 
w
 
3-0F
w
 
3-4A
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
23
Oxford Utd3991218-1539 
w
 
2-0F
l
 
2-1A
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
24
Sheff Wed391929-55-6 
w
 
3-1F
w
 
1-3F
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-3F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
3
Southampton have won 3 consecutive home league games
6
Southampton have not lost in 6 consecutive home league games
3
Southampton have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive home league games
Southampton 6TH
20 league games
Home
3
Overall
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Southampton2 - 0Oxford Utd
Southampton1 - 0Norwich
Southampton5 - 0QPR
Southampton1 - 1Charlton
Southampton1 - 0Watford
Southampton1 - 0Sheff Utd
Southampton1 - 2Hull
Southampton0 - 0Millwall
Southampton1 - 1Coventry
Southampton3 - 2West Brom
Southampton3 - 1Birmingham
Southampton3 - 0Leicester
Southampton3 - 1Sheff Wed
Southampton0 - 2Preston
Southampton0 - 0Swansea
Southampton1 - 1M'Boro
Southampton0 - 0Portsmouth
Southampton1 - 2Stoke
Southampton2 - 1Wrexham
Southampton1 - 2Arsenal
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HSouthampton2 - 0Oxford Utd
HSouthampton1 - 0Norwich
ASouthampton2 - 1Coventry
ASouthampton1 - 1West Brom
ASouthampton3 - 1Sheff Wed
HSouthampton5 - 0QPR
HSouthampton1 - 1Charlton
ASouthampton4 - 3Leicester
HSouthampton1 - 0Watford
ASouthampton2 - 0Stoke
ASouthampton1 - 1Portsmouth
HSouthampton1 - 0Sheff Utd
HSouthampton1 - 2Hull
ASouthampton0 - 4M'Boro
HSouthampton0 - 0Millwall
ASouthampton1 - 1Birmingham
ASouthampton1 - 2Oxford Utd
HSouthampton1 - 1Coventry
ASouthampton1 - 2Norwich
HSouthampton3 - 2West Brom
Derby 8TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
10
D
3
Lost
7
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Portsmouth0 - 1Derby
Millwall1 - 0Derby
Hull4 - 2Derby
Watford2 - 0Derby
Bristol C0 - 5Derby
Charlton1 - 2Derby
Preston0 - 1Derby
Leicester2 - 1Derby
Birmingham1 - 1Derby
Sheff Wed0 - 3Derby
M'Boro2 - 1Derby
Swansea1 - 2Derby
Blackburn1 - 2Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 3Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 0Derby
Wrexham1 - 1Derby
West Brom0 - 1Derby
Ipswich2 - 2Derby
Stoke3 - 1Derby
Hull0 - 1Derby
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
20
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
D
4
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby1 - 0Birmingham
ADerby1 - 0Portsmouth
ADerby0 - 1Millwall
HDerby2 - 1Sheff Wed
HDerby3 - 1Blackburn
ADerby2 - 4Hull
ADerby0 - 2Watford
HDerby2 - 0Swansea
HDerby1 - 2Ipswich
ADerby5 - 0Bristol C
HDerby1 - 1West Brom
ADerby2 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 0Preston
HDerby1 - 2Wrexham
HDerby1 - 0M'Boro
ADerby1 - 2Leicester
ADerby1 - 1Birmingham
HDerby1 - 1Portsmouth
ADerby3 - 0Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 1Millwall
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Southampton have not lost to Derby in 5 consecutive league meetings
League games at Southampton since 1996
Southampton
Derby
Goals: Scored
14
9
Games: Scored
6 / 10
6 / 10
Clean sheets
4 / 10
4 / 10
SOU
4
D
3
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Southampton
Southampton4 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Derby
Draw0 - 0Draw
Southampton2 - 0
Southampton1 - 0
Draw3 - 3Draw
0 - 1Derby
0 - 2Derby
Southampton3 - 1
League games at Derby since 1997
Derby
Southampton
Goals: Scored
16
10
Games: Scored
9 / 11
7 / 11
Clean sheets
4 / 11
2 / 11
SOU
1
D
7
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Southampton
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby4 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Goal Statistics

Derby County's defensive record is very strong, J. Eustace's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive Championship matches. An average PG rating of 1.3 for Southampton makes sense in this context.

Southampton 6th Derby 8th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
26%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 61% probability that Southampton will score no more than 1 goal
0
33%
1
37%
2
20%
3
4+
There is a 70% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+1
Southampton’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+23
Derby have scored 23% more goals when away than predicted
1.5
average goals scored
1.5
average goals scored
0.8
conceded
1.2
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Southampton
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.3
1.1
Attack rating
SOU
DER
3%
better
view stats
Games scored34
35
Failed to score5
4
Scored first22
21
Goals scored63
56
Avg. goals scored1.6
1.4
Avg. shots per game10
8
Avg. shots per goal6
5
Conversion rate for16
19
Avg. XG for1.6
1.1
KickOff rating
+3%
Defence rating
3%
better
SOU
DER
view stats
Games conceded29
29
Clean sheets10
10
Conceded first14
18
Goals conceded48
48
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded9
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
7
Conversion rate against14%
14%
Avg. XG against1.3
1.3
KickOff rating
+3%

Southampton v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Southampton Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
349810
T Harwood-BellisF AzazL ScienzaF Downes
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
R Manning DEF3663
4
-
F Azaz MID3595
2
-
T Harwood-Bellis DEF3451
9
-
T Fellows MID325
2
-
C. Jander MID312
6
-
F Downes MID312
10
-
L Scienza MID3068
1
-
N Wood DEF2811
5
-
J Stephens DEF282
4
-
J. Robinson FWD2521
-
C Archer FWD2521
2
-
S Charles MID2421
5
-
R Stewart FWD1953
2
-
Welington  DEF151
1
1
K Matsuki MID1532
1
-
D Peretz GLK13
2
-
J Quarshie DEF13
2
-
J Bree DEF1122
1
-
M Roerslev DEF9
1
-
C Larin FWD931
1
-
E Jelert DEF81
-
A McCarthy GLK7
-
S Edozie FWD71
-
O Romeu MID6
2
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
381079
M ClarkeP. AgyemangJ WardL Travis
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Clarke DEF3832
7
1
B Clark MID3832
7
-
P. Agyemang FWD35103
5
-
B Díaz FWD3453
6
-
D Sanderson DEF331
7
-
J Ward MID3117
3
1
R Brewster FWD2972
1
-
J Zetterström GLK28
1
-
C Elder DEF2815
8
-
D Ozoh MID261
6
-
L Salvesen FWD2532
3
-
C Morris FWD2410
5
-
L Travis MID201
8
1
S Langas DEF1921
2
-
L Thompson MID171
4
-
C Forsyth DEF141
2
-
O Fraulo MID12
1
-
M Johnston DEF9
1
-
D Batth DEF9
1
-
D Murkin DEF83
-
S Szmodics MID82
2
-
J Vickers GLK7
-
J Banel FWD7
-
R O'Donnell GLK5
-
O. Eames MID2
-