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Derby County v Stoke City : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Pride Park Stadium, Derby

John Coleman welcomes Mark Warburton to the Pride Park Stadium on Saturday lunch time, as their Derby County and Stoke City troops clash in the Championship. It's our aim to give you everything you need to make a smart bet on this encounter, so we've delved into our 20+ year database and pulled out the stats that are most significant. Head-to-head and recent form are included, and it all goes into our algorithmic predictions. Odds are there to ensure you get the best price.

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The last English Championship meeting between Derby and Stoke was on Saturday 3rd May 2025
English Championship
May 3rd 2025
Derby 0
0 Stoke
 
DER
STK
Shots On
4
1
Shots Off
6
2
Corners
5
4
Possession
52%
48%
Fouls
10
9
Yellow/red cards
2/0
1/0
 
DerbyStoke
 
J. Vickers
K. Wilson
N. Phillips
M. Clarke
C. Forsyth (E. Pieters 90')
S. Langås
M. Harness (N. Mendez-Laing 67')
H. Armstrong
E. Adams
L. Thompson (K. Jackson 88')
J. Yates (K. Roofe 88')
V. Johansson
A. Phillips
B. Gibson
M. Bosun Lawal
B. Wilmot
(A. Moran 88') J. Bae
L. Baker
W. Burger
(N. Lowe 88') A. Al-Hamadi
L. Gooch
S. Gallagher

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

It would probably be a little strong to say that we expect John Coleman and Mark Warburton to park the bus here, but we're certainly not expecting a flood of goals as Derby and Stoke go head-to-head. The statistics belowsuggest there will be under 2.5 goals (i.e. 2 goals of fewer in total), and we're saying that looks like a strong prediction. With best odds of 1.57 available on under 2.5 goals and neither side looking like strong favourites to win, that's the bet we're recommending.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Derby are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 49% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.05.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
49%
23/20
8%
-
Draw
28%
15/8
4%
-
Stoke
23%
31/10
5%
-
Derby 1-0
15%
9/2
8%
-
Draw 1-1
13%
5/1-
Draw 0-0
11%
9/2
21%
-
Derby 2-0
10%
15/2-
Stoke 1-0
9%
15/2
11%
-
Derby 2-1
9%
9/1
5%
-
Stoke 2-1
5%
14/1-
Derby 3-0
5%
18/1
12%
-
Stoke 2-0
4%
18/1
10%
-
Derby 3-1
4%
20/1
11%
-
Draw 2-2
4%
20/1
24%
-
Derby 3-2
2%
40/1
21%
-
Derby 4-0
2%
40/1-
Stoke 3-1
2%
40/1-
Derby 4-1
1%
50/1
24%
-
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
2/1
26%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
62%
2/5
11%
-
Home 1st Goal
52%
8/11
7%
-
Away 1st Goal
40%
15/8-
No 1st Goal
7%
9/2
21%
-
BTTS - Yes
43%
5/4
13%
-
BTTS - No
57%
4/7
9%
-
BTTS - Home Win
17%
5/1
20%
-
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/4
6%
-
BTTS - Away Win
9%
10/1
10%
-
Home/draw
77%
2/9
2%
-
Away/draw
51%
4/6
7%
-
Home/away
72%
2/5
3%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
65%
8/13
13%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
35%
13/10
16%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
18%
9/2
22%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
82%
1/7
5%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
7%
12/1
30%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
93%
1/25
2%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
28/1
38%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
1/150-
Over 0.5 Goals
89%
1/7
4%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
11%
9/2
21%
-
Home DNB
68%
4/9
6%
-
Away DNB
43%
13/8
13%
-
Derby win to nil
32%
2/1-
Stoke win to nil
15%
9/2
15%
-
Derby / Derby
24%
5/2
8%
-
Derby / Stoke
2%
40/1-
Derby / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / Derby
17%
4/1
5%
-
Draw / Stoke
11%
13/2
12%
-
Draw / Draw
21%
3/1
11%
-
Stoke / Derby
2%
33/1
31%
-
Stoke / Stoke
13%
11/2
7%
-
Stoke / Draw
5%
16/1
13%
-
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Derby have played 45 matches so far this season and are in 19th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

35 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 19 games, drawn 7 and won 9. Derby have conceded 46 goals, scored 36, failed to score in 15 matches and kept 8 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Derby have played 22 games at home, winning 9, drawing 4 and losing 9 fixtures. They have scored 25 goals, conceded 18 goals, kept 9 clean sheets and failed to score 8 times in home league games.

Stoke lay in 18th place on 50 points in the Championship league table having played 45 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 11 games against teams below them in the table, winning 4, drawing 5 and losing 2 games. They have scored 12 goals and kept 4 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Stoke have conceded 11 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

Stoke have played 22 away games, winning 4, drawing 5 and losing 13 games. They have scored an average of 0.7 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.7 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Derby
Stoke
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Leeds462913465100 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-0A
l
 
0-2A
l
 
6-0A
2
Burnley462816253100 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
0-2A
d
 
0-00-0
3
Sheff Utd46288102790 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
1-0A
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-0A
4
Sunderland462113121476 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
5
Coventry4620917669 
w
 
2-0F
w
 
1-2F
w
 
1-0F
l
 
3-2A
6
Bristol C46171712468 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
1-0A
d
 
2-2F
l
 
2-0A
7
Blackburn4619918566 
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-2A
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-2F
8
Millwall46181216-266 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1F
d
 
1-1A
l
 
1-0A
9
West Brom461519121064 
w
 
2-1F
w
 
1-3F
l
 
1-2A
d
 
1-1F
10
M'Boro46181018864 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
1-0A
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-0A
11
Swansea46171019-561 
l
 
1-2A
l
 
1-0A
w
 
3-1A
d
 
0-00-0
12
Sheff Wed46151318-958 
l
 
1-2F
l
 
4-2A
w
 
2-0F
l
 
2-0A
13
Norwich46141517357 
l
 
2-3A
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1F
l
 
4-2A
14
Watford4616921-857 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-1F
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
3-0A
15
QPR46141418-1056 
w
 
2-0F
l
 
4-0A
w
 
3-1F
d
 
1-1F
16
Portsmouth46141220-1354 
w
 
4-0F
d
 
2-2F
w
 
6-1F
l
 
3-1A
17
Oxford Utd46131419-1653 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
1-0A
18
Stoke Away46121519-1751 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-1A
-
-
19
Derby Home46131122-850 
-
-
w
 
2-1F
d
 
0-00-0
20
Preston46102016-1150 
w
 
2-0F
d
 
1-1A
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
21
Hull46121321-1049 
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-1F
l
 
1-3F
w
 
1-2A
22
Luton46131023-2449 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-1F
d
 
1-1F
l
 
2-1F
23
Plymouth46111322-3746 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
2-3F
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
0-1F
24
Cardiff4691720-2544 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1A
d
 
2-2F
w
 
0-1F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Derby 19TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
7
D
4
Lost
9
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Derby0 - 1Luton
Derby0 - 0Burnley
Derby2 - 0Preston
Derby2 - 0Coventry
Derby2 - 1Blackburn
Derby0 - 1Millwall
Derby0 - 0Oxford Utd
Derby0 - 1Sheff Utd
Derby0 - 1Sunderland
Derby0 - 2Watford
Derby0 - 1Leeds
Derby2 - 1West Brom
Derby4 - 0Portsmouth
Derby1 - 2Sheff Wed
Derby1 - 2Swansea
Derby1 - 1Plymouth
Derby1 - 1Hull
Derby2 - 0QPR
Derby2 - 3Norwich
Derby1 - 0Cardiff
Goals: Scored
17
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
9 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
11 / 20
Won
6
D
4
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby1 - 0Hull
ADerby3 - 1West Brom
HDerby0 - 1Luton
ADerby2 - 2Portsmouth
HDerby0 - 0Burnley
ADerby0 - 1Swansea
HDerby2 - 0Preston
ADerby3 - 2Plymouth
HDerby2 - 0Coventry
HDerby2 - 1Blackburn
ADerby0 - 1M'Boro
HDerby0 - 1Millwall
ADerby0 - 4QPR
HDerby0 - 0Oxford Utd
ADerby1 - 1Norwich
HDerby0 - 1Sheff Utd
ADerby1 - 2Cardiff
HDerby0 - 1Sunderland
HDerby0 - 2Watford
ADerby0 - 1Bristol C
Stoke 18TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
15
Conceded
34
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
3
Draw
5
Lost
12
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Leeds6 - 0Stoke
Cardiff0 - 1Stoke
Preston1 - 1Stoke
Millwall1 - 0Stoke
Coventry3 - 2Stoke
Norwich4 - 2Stoke
Bristol C2 - 0Stoke
Hull1 - 2Stoke
Portsmouth3 - 1Stoke
West Brom1 - 1Stoke
Burnley0 - 0Stoke
Sheff Wed2 - 0Stoke
Luton2 - 1Stoke
Sunderland2 - 1Stoke
QPR1 - 1Stoke
Blackburn0 - 2Stoke
Sheff Utd2 - 0Stoke
Swansea0 - 0Stoke
M'Boro2 - 0Stoke
Oxford Utd1 - 0Stoke
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
6
Draw
6
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HStoke0 - 2Sheff Utd
AStoke0 - 6Leeds
HStoke2 - 0Sheff Wed
AStoke1 - 0Cardiff
HStoke1 - 1Luton
AStoke1 - 1Preston
HStoke3 - 1QPR
AStoke0 - 1Millwall
HStoke1 - 0Blackburn
AStoke2 - 3Coventry
HStoke0 - 0Watford
HStoke1 - 3M'Boro
AStoke2 - 4Norwich
HStoke3 - 1Swansea
AStoke0 - 2Bristol C
AStoke2 - 1Hull
HStoke0 - 0Oxford Utd
AStoke1 - 3Portsmouth
AStoke1 - 1West Brom
HStoke0 - 0Plymouth
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Derby since 1994
Derby
Stoke
Goals: Scored
23
11
Games: Scored
8 / 12
7 / 12
Clean sheets
5 / 12
4 / 12
DER
8
D
2
STK
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Derby2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby4 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 2Stoke
Derby2 - 1
Derby3 - 1
0 - 3Stoke
Derby2 - 0
Derby3 - 1
Derby3 - 0
Derby4 - 2
League games at Stoke since 1994
Stoke
Derby
Goals: Scored
18
14
Games: Scored
12 / 13
9 / 13
Clean sheets
4 / 13
1 / 13
DER
3
D
3
STK
7
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Stoke
Stoke2 - 1
1 - 2Derby
Stoke1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Stoke2 - 1
Stoke2 - 0
1 - 2Derby
Stoke1 - 0
Stoke2 - 1
1 - 3Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Stoke2 - 1
Goal Statistics
Derby 19th Stoke 18th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.4
goals
0.9
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
26%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 61% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
0
43%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4+
There is a 79% probability of Stoke scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-19
Derby have scored 19% fewer goals at home than predicted
-18
Stoke have scored 18% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.1
average goals scored
0.8
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/280632/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Stoke
1.4
0.9
Attack rating
6%
better
DER
STK
view stats
Games scored29
28
Failed to score16
17
Scored first19
18
Goals scored48
45
Avg. goals scored1.1
1
Avg. shots per game7
8
Avg. shots per goal6
8
Conversion rate for15
13
Avg. XG for1.1
1.2
KickOff rating
+6%
Defence rating
DER
STK
5%
better
view stats
Games conceded34
32
Clean sheets11
13
Conceded first23
21
Goals conceded56
62
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded8
11
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
8
Conversion rate against16%
13%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.6
KickOff rating
+5%

Derby v Stoke Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
4210413
E AdamsJ YatesC ForsythE Adams
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Vickers GLK5
-
S Langas DEF14
3
-
N Phillips DEF3213
5
-
M Clarke DEF1611
2
-
K Wilson MID3221
-
H. Armstrong MID151
3
-
E Adams MID4361
13
-
L Thompson MID271
6
-
C Forsyth MID3834
4
-
J Yates FWD42104
1
-
M Harness FWD4143
12
-
Subs
R Luthra GLK
-
E Pieters  DEF1
-
B Osborn MID241
2
-
K Goudmijn MID4022
5
-
N Mendez-Laing FWD4034
5
-
K Jackson FWD4532
7
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD121
1
-
T Barkhuizen FWD18
2
-
K Roofe FWD3
-
Stoke Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
466510
V JohanssonL BakerJ. BaeW Burger
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
V Johansson GLK46
4
-
B Wilmot DEF393
9
-
A Phillips DEF24
4
-
B Gibson DEF243
6
-
L Gooch MID201
4
-
W Burger MID3811
10
-
L Baker MID131
2
-
M Lawal MID7
-
J. Bae MID4335
5
-
A Al-Hamadi FWD152
2
-
S Gallagher FWD2231
6
-
Subs
J Bonham GLK
-
J. Griffin DEF
-
B Pearson MID13
5
-
T Seko MID25
1
-
A Moran MID3443
9
-
L. Koumas FWD4332
7
-
N Lowe FWD101
2
-
M Manhoef FWD3454
1
-
F. Fawunmi FWD
-
English Championship match betting previews, predictions and odds
Sunderland v Coventry
Tue 13th May, 20:00