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Derby County v Stoke City : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 17th Oct, 15:00 BST, Pride Park Stadium, Derby

We’ve Championship action to look forward to on Saturday afternoon, as John Eustace and his Derby County side host Mark Robins’s Stoke City at the Pride Park Stadium. You'll see stats supporting our top of below, but there are 16 other markets we cover too. We aim to deliver as full a picture as possible, with Championship performances and head to heads (H2Hs) included, so that you can make a smart bet. Finally, be sure to get the best odds and bet smart.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We predict there's very little chance of a bore-draw or a slim 1-0 win here, and instead are tipping over 1.5 goals. That means that Derby and Stoke will score at least 2 between them during 90 mins. It's a prediction based on each side's recent form stats, as well as their historic head-to-heads. We give it a probability of 78%. Bookmakers have it at 1.33.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
34%
19/10
14%
-
Draw
25%
12/5
5%
-
Stoke
42%
27/20
11%
-
Draw 1-1
11%
11/2-
Stoke 2-1
9%
17/2
5%
-
Stoke 1-0
8%
15/2
6%
-
Derby 2-1
8%
10/1
10%
-
Derby 1-0
7%
9/1
18%
-
Stoke 2-0
7%
11/1
8%
-
Draw 2-2
6%
12/1-
Draw 0-0
5%
9/1-
Derby 2-0
5%
14/1
15%
-
Stoke 3-1
5%
18/1
10%
-
Derby 3-1
4%
22/1
10%
-
Stoke 3-0
3%
22/1
12%
-
Stoke 3-2
3%
28/1-
Derby 3-2
3%
28/1-
Derby 3-0
2%
28/1
12%
-
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
10/11
5%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
44%
10/11
6%
-
Home 1st Goal
47%
11/10
8%
-
Away 1st Goal
50%
5/6
9%
-
No 1st Goal
3%
9/1-
BTTS - Yes
59%
8/11-
BTTS - No
41%
1/1-
BTTS - Home Win
18%
5/1
20%
-
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/3-
BTTS - Away Win
22%
15/4
14%
-
Home/draw
58%
4/7
9%
-
Away/draw
66%
2/5
7%
-
Home/away
75%
3/10
2%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
2/7
3%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
21%
11/4
10%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
12/5
3%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
67%
1/3
2%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
17%
5/1
8%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
83%
1/8
2%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
8%
12/1
13%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
92%
1/25
1%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1/16-
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
9/1-
Home DNB
51%
11/10
15%
-
Away DNB
59%
4/6
9%
-
Derby win to nil
16%
9/2
27%
-
Stoke win to nil
20%
3/1
11%
-
Derby / Derby
18%
15/4
10%
-
Derby / Stoke
3%
25/1
10%
-
Derby / Draw
6%
14/1
15%
-
Draw / Derby
13%
11/2
8%
-
Draw / Stoke
14%
5/1
8%
-
Draw / Draw
15%
9/2
10%
-
Stoke / Derby
3%
28/1
12%
-
Stoke / Stoke
22%
11/4
13%
-
Stoke / Draw
6%
12/1
13%
-
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Derby have played 10 matches so far this season and are in 23rd position in the league. Derby are having a poor run against away teams, having not won a match so far this season. They have also not scored in 2 of those games.

Performance against teams above them in the league

10 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 6 games, drawn 3 and won 1. Derby have conceded 19 goals, scored 9, failed to score in 3 matches and kept 1 clean sheet.

Home league performance

Derby have played 5 games at home, winning 0, drawing 2 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 4 goals, conceded 9 goals, kept 0 clean sheets and failed to score 2 times in home league games.

Stoke lay in 9th place on 16 points in the Championship league table having played 10 matches. Stoke are unbeaten in 6 games against teams below them in the league and kept 2 clean sheets out of 6 games.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 6 games against teams below them in the table, winning 5, drawing 1 and losing 0 games. They have scored 12 goals and kept 2 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Stoke have conceded 4 goals and scored in every game.

Away league performance

Stoke have played 5 away games, winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 2 games. They have scored an average of 1.4 goals per away game and conceded an average 2 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Derby
Stoke
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Swansea10721923 
l
 
0-3A
Apr 17
l
 
1-2F
Mar 6
2
M'Boro10631621 
Mar 16
Dec 5
l
 
2-3A
Feb 17
3
West Ham105411719 
Apr 10
l
 
3-0A
Mar 13
Nov 28
4
Birmingham10451617 
l
 
1-2F
Feb 13
Nov 21
Feb 6
5
QPR10451617 
Feb 16
l
 
4-1A
Dec 5
Mar 16
6
Wolves10523317 
May 1
Nov 24
Apr 17
l
 
4-1F
7
West Brom10523217 
l
 
0-1A
Apr 7
Dec 12
Jan 1
8
Southampton106221116 
Feb 6
Nov 21
Mar 3
l
 
3-1A
9
Stoke10514116 
Oct 17
Jan 16
-
-
10
Blackburn10433215 
Jan 1
Dec 12
Jan 26
Nov 3
11
Millwall10424014 
Jan 23
Oct 31
Nov 25
May 1
12
Bristol C10424-214 
Dec 9
Apr 24
Oct 24
Dec 29
13
Charlton10352-314 
Mar 6
l
 
2-1F
w
 
4-0F
Apr 10
14
Bolton10415-313 
Nov 6
Jan 30
Feb 27
w
 
1-2F
15
Sheff Utd10334012 
Dec 29
Oct 24
w
 
2-1A
Feb 20
16
Portsmouth9324-111 
Apr 20
w
 
0-2F
Jan 30
Nov 7
17
Wrexham10253-411 
d
 
1-1F
Feb 27
Dec 26
Mar 20
18
Lincoln10325-1011 
Dec 19
Apr 3
Apr 24
Dec 9
19
Cardiff10244110 
d
 
2-2A
Mar 2
Apr 6
d
 
1-1F
20
Norwich10307-39 
Nov 3
Jan 26
w
 
1-0F
Apr 20
21
Burnley11155-58 
Feb 20
d
 
1-1A
Apr 3
Dec 19
22
Watford10226-118 
Nov 28
Mar 13
Feb 13
w
 
1-2F
23
Derby10136-106 
-
-
Jan 16
Oct 17
24
Preston10118-124 
Mar 20
Dec 26
Oct 31
Jan 23
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Derby 23RD
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
7
Draw
5
Lost
8
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Derby1 - 1Wrexham
Derby1 - 2Birmingham
Derby0 - 1West Brom
Derby0 - 3Swansea
Derby2 - 2Cardiff
Derby1 - 2Sheff Utd
Derby1 - 0Oxford Utd
Derby2 - 0Stoke
Derby1 - 0Birmingham
Derby2 - 1Sheff Wed
Derby3 - 1Blackburn
Derby2 - 0Swansea
Derby1 - 2Ipswich
Derby1 - 1West Brom
Derby1 - 2Wrexham
Derby1 - 0M'Boro
Derby1 - 1Portsmouth
Derby1 - 1Millwall
Derby1 - 3Leicester
Derby2 - 3Watford
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
31
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
6
D
3
Lost
11
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby1 - 4QPR
HDerby1 - 1Wrexham
ADerby1 - 1Burnley
HDerby1 - 2Birmingham
HDerby0 - 1West Brom
ADerby0 - 3West Ham
ADerby2 - 0Portsmouth
HDerby0 - 3Swansea
HDerby2 - 2Cardiff
ADerby1 - 2Charlton
HDerby1 - 2Sheff Utd
ADerby3 - 2QPR
ADerby1 - 2Norwich
HDerby1 - 0Oxford Utd
ADerby1 - 2Southampton
HDerby2 - 0Stoke
ADerby2 - 3Coventry
HDerby1 - 0Birmingham
ADerby1 - 0Portsmouth
ADerby0 - 1Millwall
Stoke 9TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
14
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
4
D
3
Lost
13
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bolton1 - 2Stoke
Watford1 - 2Stoke
Cardiff1 - 1Stoke
Wolves4 - 1Stoke
Southampton3 - 1Stoke
Bristol C2 - 0Stoke
Wrexham2 - 0Stoke
Derby2 - 0Stoke
Preston3 - 1Stoke
Swansea2 - 0Stoke
Coventry2 - 1Stoke
Charlton1 - 0Stoke
West Brom0 - 0Stoke
Birmingham1 - 1Stoke
Norwich0 - 2Stoke
Hull0 - 1Stoke
Watford1 - 0Stoke
Ipswich1 - 0Stoke
Sheff Utd4 - 0Stoke
Leicester2 - 1Stoke
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
36
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
7
D
3
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HStoke2 - 3M'Boro
AStoke2 - 1Bolton
HStoke2 - 1Sheff Utd
AStoke2 - 1Watford
AStoke1 - 1Cardiff
HStoke4 - 0Charlton
HStoke1 - 0Norwich
AStoke1 - 4Wolves
AStoke1 - 3Southampton
HStoke1 - 2Swansea
AStoke0 - 2Bristol C
HStoke1 - 3Portsmouth
HStoke1 - 3Millwall
AStoke0 - 2Wrexham
HStoke1 - 1Blackburn
AStoke0 - 2Derby
HStoke2 - 0Sheff Wed
AStoke1 - 3Preston
HStoke3 - 1Watford
HStoke3 - 3Ipswich
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Derby since 1994
Derby
Stoke
Goals: Scored
25
11
Games: Scored
9 / 14
7 / 14
Clean sheets
7 / 14
5 / 14
DER
9
D
3
STK
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Derby2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby4 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 2Stoke
Derby2 - 1
Derby3 - 1
0 - 3Stoke
Derby2 - 0
Derby3 - 1
Derby3 - 0
Derby4 - 2
League games at Stoke since 1994
Stoke
Derby
Goals: Scored
21
15
Games: Scored
13 / 14
10 / 14
Clean sheets
4 / 14
1 / 14
DER
3
D
3
STK
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Stoke
Stoke3 - 1
Stoke2 - 1
1 - 2Derby
Stoke1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Stoke2 - 1
Stoke2 - 0
1 - 2Derby
Stoke1 - 0
Stoke2 - 1
1 - 3Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Stoke2 - 1
Goal Statistics

Goals have been a problem for Derby County of late. It has been 6 Championship games since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.4 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Saturday afternoon against Stoke City.

Stoke City have been steady in front of goal of late, scoring in 10 consecutive Championship outings. Their PG of 1.6 against Derby County on Saturday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

Derby 23rd Stoke 9th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.4
goals
1.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 60% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
13%
4+
There is a 79% probability that Stoke will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-9
Derby’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-35
Stoke have scored 35% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.3
average goals scored
0.7
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2026/2027 season
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Stoke
1.4
1.6
Attack rating
DER
STK
45%
better
view stats
Games scored7
10
Failed to score3
0
Scored first4
7
Goals scored9
17
Avg. goals scored0.9
1.7
Avg. shots per game9
9
Avg. shots per goal10
5
Conversion rate for10
19
Avg. XG for1.1
1
KickOff rating
+45%
Defence rating
DER
STK
23%
better
view stats
Games conceded9
8
Clean sheets1
2
Conceded first6
3
Goals conceded19
16
Avg. goals conceded1.9
1.6
Avg. shots/game conceded11
11
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
7
Conversion rate against18%
14%
Avg. XG against1.9
1.7
KickOff rating
+23%

Derby v Stoke Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby Championship squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
9323
D SandersonS SzmodicsB ClarkA Mowatt
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Vickers GLK3
-
R Nyambe DEF4
-
D Sanderson DEF9
2
-
J Ward MID8
-
R Hedges MID9
1
-
A Mowatt MID9
3
-
L Travis MID4
2
-
B Clark MID1022
-
S Szmodics MID931
1
-
M Fuseini FWD611
2
-
C Morris FWD611
-
Stoke Championship squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
10324
V JohanssonE GalbraithE BocatE Galbraith
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
V Johansson GLK10
-
B Wilmot DEF101
1
-
M Taloverov DEF7
2
1
L. Graham DEF8
3
-
B Johnson DEF91
-
E Bocat DEF1022
1
-
D. Soumaré MID10
1
-
E Galbraith MID1032
4
-
J McGlynn MID621
1
-
J Devenny MID62
1
-
L Cissé FWD611
-