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Southampton v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Derby County pay Championship counterparts Southampton a visit on Saturday afternoon, as John Eustace leads his side into an away clash with William Still & co. at the St. Mary's Stadium. Statistics drive the predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and flipping between them shows bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and unique league tables. The best odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to explore.

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Southampton's next match is v Man City at 17:15 on Saturday 25th April
Derby County's next match is v QPR at 15:00 on Saturday 25th April
The last English Championship meeting between Southampton and Derby was on Saturday 11th April 2026
English Championship
April 11th 2026
Southampton 2
1 Derby
 
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza 62'38' C. Morris
T. Harwood-Bellis 69'
 
SOU
DER
Shots On
5
4
Shots Off
7
2
Corners
6
2
Possession
62%
38%
Fouls
8
14
Yellow/red cards
1/0
2/0
 
SouthamptonDerby
 
R. Manning
J. Stephens
T. Harwood-Bellisfootball icon
J. Bree (N. Wood-Gordon 87')
F. Downes
F. Azaz (S. Charles 75')
L. Weschenfelder-Scienzafootball icon (S. Edozie 75')
R. Stewart (C. Larin 64')
T. Fellows (K. Matsuki 64')
D. Peretz
C. Jander
R. O'Donnell
M. Clarke
(C. Forsyth 67') M. Johnston
(S. Langås 67') D. Ozoh
S. Szmodics
football iconC. Morris
J. Ward
D. Sanderson
(L. Salvesen 84') L. Travis
(O. Fraulo 9') B. Clark
(O. Eames 66') J. Banel

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

The KickOff predictive algorithm suggests there is a 75% probability of Southampton and Derby scoring at least 2 goals in this Championship tie. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are factored into that calculation , and it seems the bookies favour that outcome too. This over 1.5 goals tip is available with best odds of 1.22.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Southampton are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 51% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.80.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Southampton
51%
3/51/200
Draw
25%
31/1020/1
Derby
24%
4/1150/1
Draw 1-1
12%
13/29/5
Southampton 1-0
11%
7/119/5
Southampton 2-1
10%
15/21/4
Southampton 2-0
9%
7/15/1
Derby 1-0
7%
14/112/5
Draw 0-0
7%
12/15/1
Derby 2-1
6%
16/117/2
Southampton 3-1
5%
11/19/2
Southampton 3-0
5%
11/110/1
Draw 2-2
5%
14/110/1
Derby 2-0
4%
28/115/2
Southampton 3-2
3%
22/133/1
Derby 3-1
2%
40/133/1
Southampton 4-1
2%
22/128/1
Southampton 4-0
2%
22/120/1
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
8/112/5
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
11/109/5
Home 1st Goal
53%
1/211/20
Away 1st Goal
42%
13/89/4
No 1st Goal
5%
12/15/1
BTTS - Yes
52%
8/1110/21
BTTS - No
48%
1/16/4
BTTS - Home Win
23%
9/41/33
BTTS - Draw
18%
4/19/1
BTTS - Away Win
11%
8/166/1
Home/draw
76%
1/61/1000
Away/draw
49%
13/1018/1
Home/away
75%
2/91/1000
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
2/92/7
Under 1.5 Goals
26%
10/312/5
Over 3.5 Goals
28%
7/417/2
Under 3.5 Goals
72%
4/91/20
Over 4.5 Goals
13%
4/160/1
Under 4.5 Goals
87%
1/61/500
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
9/11/50
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1/161/50
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1/251/10
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
12/15/1
Home DNB
68%
2/91/1000
Away DNB
42%
3/160/1
Southampton win to nil
28%
7/4-
Derby win to nil
13%
9/1-
Southampton / Southampton
32%
6/445/1
Southampton / Derby
3%
33/1100/1
Southampton / Draw
6%
14/180/1
Draw / Southampton
18%
7/210/1
Draw / Derby
8%
10/128/1
Draw / Draw
13%
11/218/1
Derby / Southampton
4%
20/15/2
Derby / Derby
10%
15/211/8
Derby / Draw
6%
16/112/5
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Southampton have played 40 matches so far this season and lay in 6th place in the Championship league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 31 games against teams below in the table, having won 17, drawn 8 and lost 6 matches. They have kept 9 clean sheets and have failed to score in 3 fixtures. Southampton have outscored their opponents by 68 goals to 60 goals.

Home League Performance

Southampton have played 19 games at home winning 10, drawing 6 and losing 3 games. They have scored 29 goals, kept 9 clean sheets and conceded 14 goals at home.

Derby are in 8th position in the Championship on 63 points having played 41 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

8 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 26 goals and kept 5 clean sheets. They have scored 31 goals in total and failed to score in 3 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

13 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 7 games, drawn 4 and won 2. Derby have conceded 25 goals, scored 18, failed to score in 1 fixture and have kept 1 clean sheet.

Won
Draw
Lost
Southampton
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry44261174689 
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
l
 
3-5A
l
 
3-2A
2
Ipswich43221383079 
Apr 28
d
 
1-1A
l
 
1-2A
d
 
2-2A
3
Millwall442310111379 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
3-2F
d
 
1-1A
l
 
1-0A
4
Southampton442113102476 
-
-
d
 
1-1A
l
 
2-1F
5
M'Boro442113102176 
d
 
1-1F
l
 
4-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
6
Wrexham44191312670 
w
 
2-1A
w
 
1-5F
l
 
1-2A
d
 
1-1A
7
Hull44201014470 
l
 
1-2A
l
 
3-1A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-2A
8
Derby4419916866 
w
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1F
-
-
9
Norwich4419718864 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1A
10
Birmingham44161216060 
w
 
3-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-0F
d
 
1-1F
11
Swansea4417918-460 
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
1-2A
w
 
2-0F
w
 
1-2F
12
Bristol C44161117-159 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
3-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-5F
13
QPR44161018-858 
w
 
5-0F
w
 
1-2F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
14
Sheff Utd4417621057 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-2A
May 2
w
 
1-3F
15
Watford44141515-457 
w
 
1-0F
d
 
2-2F
l
 
2-3F
l
 
2-0A
16
Preston44141515-657 
l
 
0-2A
May 2
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
17
Stoke44151019-155 
l
 
1-2A
w
 
0-2F
w
 
2-0F
l
 
3-1F
18
West Brom44131318-952 
w
 
3-2F
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-1F
19
Blackburn45131319-1352 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
2-1F
w
 
3-1A
w
 
1-2F
20
Portsmouth44131219-1751 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-1F
21
Charlton44121418-1350 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
1-5F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
22
Oxford Utd44101420-1544 
w
 
2-0F
l
 
2-1A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
1-0A
23
Leicester44111518-1142 
w
 
3-0F
w
 
3-4A
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
24
Sheff Wed4411231-58-3 
w
 
3-1F
w
 
1-3F
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-3F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Southampton 4TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Southampton2 - 0Oxford Utd
Southampton1 - 0Norwich
Southampton5 - 0QPR
Southampton1 - 1Charlton
Southampton1 - 0Watford
Southampton1 - 0Sheff Utd
Southampton1 - 2Hull
Southampton0 - 0Millwall
Southampton1 - 1Coventry
Southampton3 - 2West Brom
Southampton3 - 1Birmingham
Southampton3 - 0Leicester
Southampton3 - 1Sheff Wed
Southampton0 - 2Preston
Southampton0 - 0Swansea
Southampton1 - 1M'Boro
Southampton0 - 0Portsmouth
Southampton1 - 2Stoke
Southampton2 - 1Wrexham
Southampton1 - 2Arsenal
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ASouthampton5 - 1Wrexham
HSouthampton2 - 0Oxford Utd
HSouthampton1 - 0Norwich
ASouthampton2 - 1Coventry
ASouthampton1 - 1West Brom
ASouthampton3 - 1Sheff Wed
HSouthampton5 - 0QPR
HSouthampton1 - 1Charlton
ASouthampton4 - 3Leicester
HSouthampton1 - 0Watford
ASouthampton2 - 0Stoke
ASouthampton1 - 1Portsmouth
HSouthampton1 - 0Sheff Utd
HSouthampton1 - 2Hull
ASouthampton0 - 4M'Boro
HSouthampton0 - 0Millwall
ASouthampton1 - 1Birmingham
ASouthampton1 - 2Oxford Utd
HSouthampton1 - 1Coventry
ASouthampton1 - 2Norwich
Derby 8TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
31
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
9
D
3
Lost
8
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Coventry3 - 2Derby
Portsmouth0 - 1Derby
Millwall1 - 0Derby
Hull4 - 2Derby
Watford2 - 0Derby
Bristol C0 - 5Derby
Charlton1 - 2Derby
Preston0 - 1Derby
Leicester2 - 1Derby
Birmingham1 - 1Derby
Sheff Wed0 - 3Derby
M'Boro2 - 1Derby
Swansea1 - 2Derby
Blackburn1 - 2Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 3Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 0Derby
Wrexham1 - 1Derby
West Brom0 - 1Derby
Ipswich2 - 2Derby
Stoke3 - 1Derby
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
D
3
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby2 - 0Stoke
ADerby2 - 3Coventry
HDerby1 - 0Birmingham
ADerby1 - 0Portsmouth
ADerby0 - 1Millwall
HDerby2 - 1Sheff Wed
HDerby3 - 1Blackburn
ADerby2 - 4Hull
ADerby0 - 2Watford
HDerby2 - 0Swansea
HDerby1 - 2Ipswich
ADerby5 - 0Bristol C
HDerby1 - 1West Brom
ADerby2 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 0Preston
HDerby1 - 2Wrexham
HDerby1 - 0M'Boro
ADerby1 - 2Leicester
ADerby1 - 1Birmingham
HDerby1 - 1Portsmouth
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Southampton have not lost to Derby in 5 consecutive league meetings
League games at Southampton since 1996
Southampton
Derby
Goals: Scored
14
9
Games: Scored
6 / 10
6 / 10
Clean sheets
4 / 10
4 / 10
SOU
4
D
3
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Southampton
Southampton4 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Derby
Draw0 - 0Draw
Southampton2 - 0
Southampton1 - 0
Draw3 - 3Draw
0 - 1Derby
0 - 2Derby
Southampton3 - 1
League games at Derby since 1997
Derby
Southampton
Goals: Scored
16
10
Games: Scored
9 / 11
7 / 11
Clean sheets
4 / 11
2 / 11
SOU
1
D
7
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Southampton
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby4 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Goal Statistics

Southampton have been consistent in front of goal of late, finding the net in 14 consecutive Championship matches. Their PG of 1.6 against Derby County on Saturday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

Southampton's defensive record is very strong, W. Still's men having conceded 1 or less in 8 consecutive Championship outings. An average PG rating of 1.0 for Derby County makes sense in this context.

Southampton 4th Derby 8th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.6
goals
1.0
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
20%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
8%
There is a 80% probability that Southampton will score 1 or more goals
0
35%
1
37%
2
19%
3
4+
There is a 72% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+1
Southampton’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+27
Derby have scored 27% more goals when away than predicted
1.5
average goals scored
1.6
average goals scored
0.8
conceded
1.3
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Southampton
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.6
1
Attack rating
SOU
DER
3%
better
view stats
Games scored35
37
Failed to score5
4
Scored first23
22
Goals scored68
60
Avg. goals scored1.7
1.5
Avg. shots per game10
8
Avg. shots per goal6
5
Conversion rate for16
19
Avg. XG for1.7
1.2
KickOff rating
+3%
Defence rating
4%
better
SOU
DER
view stats
Games conceded30
30
Clean sheets10
11
Conceded first14
19
Goals conceded49
51
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded9
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
7
Conversion rate against14%
15%
Avg. XG against1.3
1.3
KickOff rating
+4%

Southampton v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Southampton Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
39101012
T Harwood-BellisF AzazL ScienzaF Downes
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Peretz GLK18
2
-
J Bree DEF2123
7
-
T Harwood-Bellis DEF3961
9
-
J Stephens DEF322
5
-
R Manning DEF4175
4
-
F Downes MID363
12
-
C. Jander MID3421
6
-
T Fellows MID356
2
-
F Azaz MID39107
4
-
L Scienza MID35710
1
-
R Stewart FWD2373
2
-
Subs
G Long GLK
-
N Wood DEF3311
5
-
Welington  DEF172
2
1
S Edozie MID101
-
S Charles MID2933
6
-
K Matsuki MID2042
1
-
C. Bragg MID15
4
-
C Larin FWD1461
2
-
C Archer FWD2942
2
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
4312712
M ClarkeC MorrisJ WardL Travis
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
R O'Donnell GLK8
-
J Ward DEF3617
3
1
D Sanderson DEF371
8
-
M Clarke DEF4333
8
1
M Johnston DEF13
1
-
L Travis MID251
11
1
D Ozoh MID312
7
-
J Banel MID122
1
-
S Szmodics MID1121
3
-
B Clark MID4133
7
-
C Morris FWD29122
5
-
Subs
J Vickers GLK7
-
C Forsyth DEF171
2
-
D Batth DEF9
1
-
S Langas DEF2221
2
-
I. Gordon DEF
-
O Fraulo MID17
3
-
O. Eames MID4
-
C. Allen MID3
-
L Salvesen FWD2932
3
-