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Southampton v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 21st Nov, 12:30 BST, St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Tonda Eckert and John Eustace meet in the Championship on Saturday lunch time, as Southampton face Derby County at the St. Mary's Stadium. The predictions for all the markets are calculated using the past 20 games each side has played (home, away and overall) with extra weighting given to top teams. All the statistics and graphics are tailored for the betting market in question. Head-to-head stats for this fixture are also given if there is some fixture history. Odds are provided directly from from the UK's biggest bookmakers.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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Best Tip: Southampton to win

There looks like a strong favourite for this match, and it's Southampton. Their recent form stats show what they've got in their locker at home, and historical head-to-head (H2H) data proves they can get the job done against Derby too. The odds point towards Tonda Eckert's side winning in the win / draw / win market, and that's our strong prediction for Saturday lunch time too.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Southampton are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 72% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.38.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Southampton
72%
1.38-
Draw
17%
4.75-
Derby
12%
6.50-
Southampton 2-0
11%
8.50-
Southampton 2-1
9%
8.50-
Southampton 3-0
9%
10.00-
Southampton 1-0
9%
9.50-
Southampton 3-1
8%
11.00-
Draw 1-1
8%
10.00-
Southampton 4-0
5%
17.00-
Southampton 4-1
5%
17.00-
Draw 2-2
4%
17.00-
Southampton 3-2
3%
21.00-
Draw 0-0
3%
19.00-
Derby 2-1
3%
21.00-
Derby 1-0
3%
23.00-
Southampton 5-0
3%
29.00-
Southampton 5-1
2%
29.00-
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
1.50-
Under 2.5 Goals
35%
2.63-
Home 1st Goal
59%
1.40-
Away 1st Goal
39%
2.88-
No 1st Goal
2%
19.00-
BTTS - Yes
54%
1.67-
BTTS - No
46%
2.10-
BTTS - Home Win
34%
2.75-
BTTS - Draw
13%
6.00-
BTTS - Away Win
7%
11.00-
Home/draw
88%
1.11-
Away/draw
28%
3.00-
Home/away
83%
1.18-
Over 1.5 Goals
85%
1.14-
Under 1.5 Goals
15%
5.50-
Over 3.5 Goals
43%
2.20-
Under 3.5 Goals
57%
1.67-
Over 4.5 Goals
25%
3.75-
Under 4.5 Goals
75%
1.29-
Over 5.5 Goals
13%
6.50-
Under 5.5 Goals
87%
1.11-
Over 0.5 Goals
97%
1.02-
Under 0.5 Goals
3%
19.00-
Home DNB
83%
1.14-
Away DNB
23%
5.50-
Southampton win to nil
37%
2.63-
Derby win to nil
5%
15.00-
Southampton / Southampton
42%
2.00-
Southampton / Derby
2%
41.00-
Southampton / Draw
5%
17.00-
Draw / Southampton
19%
4.33-
Draw / Derby
6%
15.00-
Draw / Draw
10%
8.00-
Derby / Southampton
5%
17.00-
Derby / Derby
7%
12.00-
Derby / Draw
4%
19.00-
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Southampton have played 15 matches so far this season and lay in 7th place in the Championship league table. Southampton are unbeaten at home after 7 games and have kept 2 clean sheets in those matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 11 games against teams below in the table, having won 6, drawn 2 and lost 3 matches. They have kept 3 clean sheets and have failed to score in 2 fixtures. Southampton have outscored their opponents by 29 goals to 14 goals.

Home League Performance

Southampton have played 7 games at home winning 6, drawing 1 and losing 0 games. They have scored 20 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and conceded 5 goals at home.

Derby are in 23rd position in the Championship on 10 points having played 15 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

4 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 15 goals and kept 1 clean sheet. They have scored 7 goals in total and failed to score in 1 fixture.

Performance against teams above them in the league

15 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 9 games, drawn 4 and won 2. Derby have conceded 30 goals, scored 14, failed to score in 5 fixtures and have kept 1 clean sheet.

Won
Draw
Lost
Southampton
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Birmingham158521429 
Apr 20
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-2F
Feb 12
2
M'Boro158521129 
Nov 27
Mar 13
Mar 16
Dec 5
3
Stoke15924629 
w
 
3-1F
Mar 3
l
 
0-1A
Jan 16
4
Wolves15843828 
Mar 16
Dec 5
May 1
Nov 24
5
West Brom15843828 
Jan 26
d
 
1-1A
l
 
0-1A
Apr 7
6
Swansea15825426 
w
 
3-1F
Apr 6
l
 
0-3A
Apr 17
7
Southampton158431424 
-
-
Feb 6
Nov 21
8
QPR15663624 
w
 
4-1F
Jan 23
Feb 16
l
 
4-1A
9
West Ham156541423 
Dec 29
w
 
2-3F
Apr 10
l
 
3-0A
10
Sheff Utd15645222 
May 1
Nov 24
Dec 29
d
 
1-1F
11
Portsmouth15645222 
w
 
1-0F
Feb 28
Apr 20
w
 
0-2F
12
Norwich15708821 
Feb 17
w
 
0-1F
l
 
0-4A
Jan 26
13
Blackburn15636-121 
Dec 19
Apr 3
Jan 1
Dec 12
14
Cardiff15465018 
Jan 1
Dec 12
d
 
2-2A
Mar 2
15
Wrexham15465-218 
Feb 20
l
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1F
Feb 27
16
Millwall15537-418 
w
 
5-1A
Apr 17
Jan 23
l
 
4-1A
17
Bristol C15537-818 
w
 
4-1F
Feb 13
Dec 9
Apr 24
18
Bolton15528-917 
d
 
0-00-0
Jan 16
w
 
3-1A
Jan 30
19
Charlton15456-1017 
Mar 20
Dec 26
Mar 6
l
 
2-1F
20
Watford15438-1015 
Mar 6
l
 
2-1A
Nov 28
Mar 13
21
Lincoln15438-1115 
Apr 10
d
 
1-1F
Dec 19
Apr 3
22
Burnley15177-910 
Dec 9
Apr 24
Feb 20
d
 
1-1A
23
Derby15249-1610 
Nov 21
Feb 6
-
-
24
Preston152211-178 
Jan 30
l
 
1-0A
Mar 20
Dec 26
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Southampton 7TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
42
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
13
Draw
6
L
1
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Southampton4 - 1QPR
Southampton0 - 0Bolton
Southampton1 - 0Portsmouth
Southampton4 - 1Bristol C
Southampton3 - 1Swansea
Southampton5 - 1Millwall
Southampton3 - 1Stoke
Southampton1 - 1M'Boro
Southampton2 - 2Ipswich
Southampton2 - 2Bristol C
Southampton3 - 0Blackburn
Southampton2 - 1Derby
Southampton2 - 0Oxford Utd
Southampton1 - 0Norwich
Southampton5 - 0QPR
Southampton1 - 1Charlton
Southampton1 - 0Watford
Southampton1 - 0Sheff Utd
Southampton1 - 2Hull
Southampton0 - 0Millwall
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
9
Draw
8
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ASouthampton0 - 1Preston
ASouthampton1 - 1West Brom
HSouthampton4 - 1QPR
ASouthampton3 - 2West Ham
HSouthampton0 - 0Bolton
ASouthampton1 - 0Norwich
HSouthampton1 - 0Portsmouth
ASouthampton1 - 2Wrexham
HSouthampton4 - 1Bristol C
HSouthampton3 - 1Swansea
ASouthampton1 - 1Lincoln
ASouthampton1 - 1Birmingham
HSouthampton5 - 1Millwall
HSouthampton3 - 1Stoke
ASouthampton1 - 2Watford
HSouthampton1 - 1M'Boro
ASouthampton0 - 0M'Boro
ASouthampton3 - 1Preston
HSouthampton2 - 2Ipswich
HSouthampton2 - 2Bristol C
Derby 23RD
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
6
D
3
Lost
11
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Millwall4 - 1Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 1Derby
QPR4 - 1Derby
Burnley1 - 1Derby
West Ham3 - 0Derby
Portsmouth0 - 2Derby
Charlton2 - 1Derby
QPR2 - 3Derby
Norwich2 - 1Derby
Southampton2 - 1Derby
Coventry3 - 2Derby
Portsmouth0 - 1Derby
Millwall1 - 0Derby
Hull4 - 2Derby
Watford2 - 0Derby
Bristol C0 - 5Derby
Charlton1 - 2Derby
Preston0 - 1Derby
Leicester2 - 1Derby
Birmingham1 - 1Derby
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
38
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
W
4
D
4
Lost
12
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby3 - 1Bolton
HDerby0 - 4Norwich
ADerby1 - 4Millwall
ADerby1 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby0 - 1Stoke
ADerby1 - 4QPR
HDerby1 - 1Wrexham
ADerby1 - 1Burnley
HDerby1 - 2Birmingham
HDerby0 - 1West Brom
ADerby0 - 3West Ham
ADerby2 - 0Portsmouth
HDerby0 - 3Swansea
HDerby2 - 2Cardiff
ADerby1 - 2Charlton
HDerby1 - 2Sheff Utd
ADerby3 - 2QPR
ADerby1 - 2Norwich
HDerby1 - 0Oxford Utd
ADerby1 - 2Southampton
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Southampton since 1996
Southampton
Derby
Goals: Scored
16
10
Games: Scored
7 / 11
7 / 11
Clean sheets
4 / 11
4 / 11
SOU
5
D
3
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Southampton
Southampton2 - 1
Southampton4 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Derby
Draw0 - 0Draw
Southampton2 - 0
Southampton1 - 0
Draw3 - 3Draw
0 - 1Derby
0 - 2Derby
Southampton3 - 1
League games at Derby since 1997
Derby
Southampton
Goals: Scored
16
10
Games: Scored
9 / 11
7 / 11
Clean sheets
4 / 11
2 / 11
SOU
1
D
7
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Southampton
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby4 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Goal Statistics
Southampton 7th Derby 23rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.5
goals
0.9
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
1
21%
2
26%
3
21%
4+
24%
There is a 71% probability that Southampton will score 2 or more goals in this match
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
4+
There is a 78% probability of Derby scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+18
Southampton have scored 18% more goals at home than predicted
+12
Derby have scored 12% more goals when away than predicted
2.1
average goals scored
1.4
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2026/2027 season
Southampton
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
2.5
0.9
Attack rating
44%
better
SOU
DER
view stats
Games scored13
10
Failed to score1
5
Scored first9
5
Goals scored29
14
Avg. goals scored1.9
0.9
Avg. shots per game10
8
Avg. shots per goal5
9
Conversion rate for20
11
Avg. XG for1.7
1.1
KickOff rating
+44%
Defence rating
43%
better
SOU
DER
view stats
Games conceded11
14
Clean sheets3
1
Conceded first4
10
Goals conceded14
30
Avg. goals conceded0.9
2
Avg. shots/game conceded10
12
Avg. shots/goal conceded11
6
Conversion rate against10%
17%
Avg. XG against1.6
2.1
KickOff rating
+43%

Southampton v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Southampton Championship squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
15754
D PeretzC LarinF AzazR Manning
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Peretz GLK15
-
R Manning DEF1513
4
-
J Bree DEF1521
2
-
F Azaz MID1535
1
-
K Matsuki MID1541
1
-
K Schlotterbeck  DEF132
1
-
J Ward-Prowse MID1311
-
F Downes MID132
4
-
D Mubama FWD1311
1
-
L Dobbin FWD1311
1
-
L Scienza FWD1322
-
J Stephens DEF11
-
C Larin FWD117
3
-
S Edozie FWD1111
-
C. Bragg MID911
2
1
T Fellows MID81
1
-
Welington  DEF72
-
N Wood DEF7
2
-
C. Jander MID3
1
-
Z Abbott DEF2
1
-
R. Akachukwu MID1
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
14324
B ClarkB ClarkB ClarkD Sanderson
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
B Clark MID1532
1
-
D Sanderson DEF13
3
1
S Szmodics MID1331
1
-
L Salvesen FWD132
-
A Mowatt MID12
3
-
R Hedges FWD12
1
-
R Brewster FWD1211
3
-
J Zetterström GLK11
-
O Fraulo MID111
1
-
C Morris FWD1112
1
-
S Langas DEF10
4
-
D Ozoh MID10
3
-
J Ward MID10
-
M Fuseini FWD1012
2
-
R Nyambe DEF91
2
-
H. Meister FWD9
1
-
C Taylor DEF8
1
-
M Johnston DEF8
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD8
2
-
L Travis MID7
2
-
F Bilbija FWD71
-
J Vickers GLK4
-
J Robinson DEF41
-
C Forsyth DEF2
-
E Cashin DEF2
-
S Duffy DEF1
-