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Watford v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 21st Feb, 15:00 BST, Vicarage Road, Watford

Derby County, led by manager John Eustace, visit Javier Gracia Carlos and his Watford side at the Vicarage Road on Saturday afternoon in the Championship. All statistics, including an in-depth look at the form of both sides and head to head (H2H) history, will change as you explore each of the 17 major markets using the tabs below. Odds and, of course, our predictions will too.


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In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Watford
30%
--
Draw
26%
--
Derby
44%
--
Draw 1-1
12%
--
Derby 1-0
10%
--
Derby 2-1
9%
--
Watford 1-0
8%
--
Derby 2-0
8%
--
Watford 2-1
7%
--
Draw 0-0
7%
--
Draw 2-2
5%
--
Watford 2-0
5%
--
Derby 3-1
5%
--
Derby 3-0
4%
--
Watford 3-1
3%
--
Derby 3-2
3%
--
Watford 3-2
2%
--
Watford 3-0
2%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
--
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
--
Home 1st Goal
45%
--
Away 1st Goal
51%
--
No 1st Goal
4%
--
BTTS - Yes
54%
--
BTTS - No
46%
--
BTTS - Home Win
14%
--
BTTS - Draw
19%
--
BTTS - Away Win
21%
--
Home/draw
56%
--
Away/draw
70%
--
Home/away
74%
--
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
--
Under 1.5 Goals
25%
--
Over 3.5 Goals
28%
--
Under 3.5 Goals
72%
--
Over 4.5 Goals
13%
--
Under 4.5 Goals
87%
--
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
--
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
--
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
--
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
--
Home DNB
48%
--
Away DNB
62%
--
Watford win to nil
16%
--
Derby win to nil
24%
--
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Watford have played 31 matches so far this season and are in 11th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

13 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 4 games, drawn 5 and won 4. Watford have conceded 16 goals, scored 18, failed to score in 3 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Watford have played 16 games at home, winning 8, drawing 5 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 24 goals, conceded 17 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Derby lay in 9th place on 45 points in the Championship league table having played 31 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 18 games against teams below them in the table, winning 8, drawing 5 and losing 5 games. They have scored 25 goals and kept 4 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Derby have conceded 21 goals and have failed to score in 1 match.

Away league performance

Derby have played 15 away games, winning 8, drawing 3 and losing 4 games. They have scored an average of 1.7 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.1 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Watford
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry3117862859 
May 2
l
 
3-1A
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
2
M'Boro3017761858 
w
 
3-0F
Apr 25
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
3
Ipswich3015962254 
Feb 24
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-2A
d
 
2-2A
4
Hull311669754 
w
 
2-1A
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
2-1F
Feb 24
5
Millwall311588353 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1A
Mar 10
6
Wrexham3112118547 
Mar 7
d
 
2-2A
l
 
1-2A
d
 
1-1A
7
Preston3112118447 
d
 
1-1A
Feb 14
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
8
Bristol C3113711546 
d
 
1-1F
Feb 27
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-5F
9
Derby3112910645 
Feb 21
w
 
2-3A
-
-
10
Birmingham3112910445 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
2-1A
Mar 21
d
 
1-1F
11
Watford3111119344 
-
-
l
 
2-3F
Feb 21
12
QPR3112811-144 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 3
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
13
Stoke3112712643 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 14
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
14
Southampton31111010343 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
15
Swansea3112613142 
l
 
0-2A
d
 
1-1F
Feb 14
w
 
1-2F
16
Sheff Utd3012315039 
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
May 2
w
 
1-3F
17
Norwich3110615-336 
w
 
3-2A
w
 
0-1F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
18
Charlton309912-936 
Apr 6
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
19
Portsmouth298912-1133 
d
 
1-1A
d
 
2-2A
d
 
1-1A
Mar 14
20
West Brom319616-1533 
w
 
2-1A
Apr 21
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-1F
21
Leicester3110813-632 
Mar 21
w
 
1-2A
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
22
Blackburn318815-1332 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1F
Feb 28
w
 
1-2F
23
Oxford Utd3161015-1328 
w
 
2-1A
Apr 11
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
24
Sheff Wed311822-44-7 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 10
Mar 7
w
 
0-3F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
3
Derby have won 3 consecutive away league games
Watford
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
20
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
9
Draw
7
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Watford0 - 2Swansea
Watford1 - 1Portsmouth
Watford0 - 2Millwall
Watford3 - 0Birmingham
Watford1 - 0Stoke
Watford1 - 1Sheff Wed
Watford3 - 2Norwich
Watford1 - 1Preston
Watford1 - 1Bristol C
Watford3 - 0M'Boro
Watford2 - 1West Brom
Watford2 - 1Oxford Utd
Watford2 - 1Hull
Watford0 - 1Blackburn
Watford2 - 2Southampton
Watford2 - 1QPR
Watford1 - 1Sheff Wed
Watford1 - 2Burnley
Watford1 - 0Hull
Watford0 - 0Plymouth
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
7
Draw
8
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AWatford0 - 1Southampton
AWatford0 - 0Hull
HWatford0 - 2Swansea
AWatford1 - 1Blackburn
HWatford1 - 1Portsmouth
HWatford0 - 2Millwall
HWatford3 - 0Birmingham
AWatford1 - 0Norwich
AWatford2 - 1Leicester
HWatford1 - 0Stoke
AWatford2 - 2Wrexham
HWatford1 - 1Sheff Wed
HWatford3 - 2Norwich
AWatford1 - 2Birmingham
HWatford1 - 1Preston
AWatford3 - 2Derby
HWatford1 - 1Bristol C
AWatford1 - 1Ipswich
HWatford3 - 0M'Boro
AWatford1 - 3Coventry
Derby
20 league games
Away
3
Overall
Goals: Scored
35
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
11
D
4
Lost
5
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bristol C0 - 5Derby
Charlton1 - 2Derby
Preston0 - 1Derby
Leicester2 - 1Derby
Birmingham1 - 1Derby
Sheff Wed0 - 3Derby
M'Boro2 - 1Derby
Swansea1 - 2Derby
Blackburn1 - 2Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 3Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 0Derby
Wrexham1 - 1Derby
West Brom0 - 1Derby
Ipswich2 - 2Derby
Stoke3 - 1Derby
Hull0 - 1Derby
West Brom1 - 3Derby
Portsmouth2 - 2Derby
Swansea1 - 0Derby
Plymouth2 - 3Derby
Goals: Scored
33
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
10
D
4
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby1 - 2Ipswich
ADerby5 - 0Bristol C
HDerby1 - 1West Brom
ADerby2 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 0Preston
HDerby1 - 2Wrexham
HDerby1 - 0M'Boro
ADerby1 - 2Leicester
ADerby1 - 1Birmingham
HDerby1 - 1Portsmouth
ADerby3 - 0Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby1 - 3Leicester
ADerby1 - 2M'Boro
ADerby2 - 1Swansea
HDerby2 - 3Watford
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0QPR
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Watford have beaten Derby in 5 consecutive league meetings
6
Watford have not lost to Derby in 6 consecutive league meetings
League games at Watford since 1992
Watford
Derby
Goals: Scored
28
21
Games: Scored
13 / 18
13 / 18
Clean sheets
5 / 18
5 / 18
WAT
8
D
5
DER
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Watford
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 1
1 - 2Derby
2 - 3Derby
Watford2 - 1
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 0
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Watford2 - 1
3 - 4Derby
Draw0 - 0Draw
League games at Derby since 1993
Derby
Watford
Goals: Scored
36
26
Games: Scored
17 / 19
15 / 19
Clean sheets
4 / 19
2 / 19
WAT
7
D
4
DER
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
2 - 3Watford
0 - 2Watford
0 - 1Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby4 - 2
Derby5 - 1
1 - 2Watford
Derby4 - 1
Derby2 - 0
Derby1 - 0
1 - 2Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby3 - 2
Derby3 - 0
Derby2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Watford
1 - 2Watford
Goal Statistics

Goals have been difficult to come by for Watford of late. It has been 5 Championship games since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.2 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Saturday afternoon against Derby County.

Derby County have been reliable in front of goal of late, finding the net in 20 consecutive Championship matches. Their PG of 1.5 against Watford on Saturday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

Watford Derby
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.2
goals
1.5
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 67% probability that Watford will score no more than 1 goal
0
23%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4+
There is a 77% probability that Derby will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-6
Watford’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+53
Derby have scored 53% more goals when away than predicted
1.4
average goals scored
1.8
average goals scored
1.0
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Watford
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.2
1.5
Attack rating
WAT
DER
28%
better
view stats
Games scored23
29
Failed to score8
2
Scored first9
17
Goals scored39
45
Avg. goals scored1.3
1.5
Avg. shots per game10
7
Avg. shots per goal8
5
Conversion rate for13
20
Avg. XG for1.4
1.1
KickOff rating
+28%
Defence rating
WAT
DER
6%
better
view stats
Games conceded26
24
Clean sheets5
7
Conceded first21
14
Goals conceded36
39
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded8
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
7
Conversion rate against14%
15%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.3
KickOff rating
+6%

Watford v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Watford Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
27868
I Louza L KjerrumgaardI Louza N Irankunda
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Kjerrumgaard FWD2981
1
-
M Bola DEF2713
2
-
J Ngakia DEF2724
2
-
I Louza  MID2766
6
1
N Irankunda FWD2623
7
1
E Selvik GLK25
1
-
E Kayembe MID253
3
-
H Kyprianou MID251
8
-
K Keben DEF221
3
-
M Pollock DEF2211
5
-
V Semedo FWD2131
2
-
M. Doumbia FWD2131
3
-
K Baah FWD2111
4
-
M Sissoko MID20
-
T Ince FWD194
-
J Abankwah DEF18
1
1
O. Maamma FWD1831
1
-
M. Alleyne DEF16
2
-
G Chakvetadze MID151
4
-
R Vata FWD1222
-
N Mendy MID10
-
J Petris DEF9
2
-
N Baxter GLK7
-
C Wiley DEF5
-
F Mendy DEF3
-
J Morris DEF2
1
-
P Dwomoh MID1
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
301068
M ClarkeC MorrisJ WardL Travis
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Clarke DEF3012
4
1
B Clark MID3032
4
-
J Zetterström GLK28
1
-
P. Agyemang FWD2793
2
-
D Sanderson DEF261
6
-
B Díaz FWD2633
4
-
C Elder DEF2514
7
-
A Weimann  MID2513
1
-
L Salvesen FWD2432
3
-
J Ward MID2316
1
1
E Adams MID231
7
-
R Brewster FWD2141
1
-
S Langas DEF1921
2
-
K Jackson FWD19
2
-
D Ozoh MID181
6
-
L Thompson MID161
4
-
C Morris FWD1610
4
-
L Travis MID131
7
1
C Forsyth DEF11
2
-
M Johnston DEF9
1
-
D Batth DEF9
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD91
-
R Nyambe DEF7
1
-
R O'Donnell GLK2
-
C Nelson DEF2
-
J Vickers GLK1
-