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Aston Villa v Leeds United : Premier League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 21st Feb, 15:00 BST, Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa are in English Premier League action on Saturday afternoon, as Unai Emery Etxegoien attempts to outsmart Daniel Farke and his Leeds United side at the Villa Park. Ahead of the game, it's our goal to help you find the perfect bet for you. To this end, stats for the biggest betting market have been published below, with head to head (H2H) history and statistically significant form streaks highlighted. The best odds are also given.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Premier League Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We're ruling out a bore-draw or a slim 1-0 win here, and instead we're tipping over 1.5 goals. That means that A Villa and Leeds will score a minimum of 2 between them during 90 mins. It's a tip based on form stats for each side, as well as past records of their head-to-head clashes. We give it a probability of 77%. The bookmakers have it priced at 1.25.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think A Villa are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 58% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.80.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
A Villa
58%
1.751.80
Draw
23%
3.703.70
3%
Leeds
19%
4.334.33
A Villa 1-0
12%
8.00
6%
7.00
7%
Draw 1-1
11%
7.507.00
A Villa 2-0
11%
9.508.50
A Villa 2-1
10%
9.008.00
Draw 0-0
7%
11.00
8%
10.00
A Villa 3-0
6%
15.00
12%
12.00
8%
Leeds 1-0
6%
13.00
13%
12.00
A Villa 3-1
6%
15.0012.00
Leeds 2-1
5%
15.0013.00
Draw 2-2
4%
17.0013.00
8%
Leeds 2-0
3%
26.0019.00
A Villa 4-0
3%
34.0023.00
A Villa 3-2
3%
29.00
12%
21.00
A Villa 4-1
3%
34.0023.00
10%
Leeds 3-1
1%
41.0026.00
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
1.801.80
3%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
2.001.91
2%
Home 1st Goal
56%
1.571.57
2%
Away 1st Goal
40%
2.502.62
No 1st Goal
4%
11.00
8%
9.50
BTTS - Yes
49%
1.80
3%
1.80
3%
BTTS - No
51%
1.95
3%
1.95
3%
BTTS - Home Win
24%
3.75
4%
3.60
3%
BTTS - Draw
16%
5.00
5%
4.60
2%
BTTS - Away Win
9%
8.007.50
7%
Home/draw
81%
1.201.20
Away/draw
42%
2.002.00
3%
Home/away
77%
1.291.29
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
1.251.25
Under 1.5 Goals
26%
4.003.60
3%
Over 3.5 Goals
28%
3.20
7%
3.00
4%
Under 3.5 Goals
72%
1.36
3%
1.36
3%
Over 4.5 Goals
13%
5.505.50
5%
Under 4.5 Goals
87%
1.141.12
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
13.00
18%
11.00
10%
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1.04
1%
1.03
1%
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1.05
1%
1.04
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
11.00
8%
9.50
5%
Home DNB
74%
1.331.33
Away DNB
35%
3.253.10
A Villa win to nil
34%
3.00
8%
-
Leeds win to nil
10%
8.00-
A Villa / A Villa
29%
2.882.70
A Villa / Leeds
3%
34.0026.00
A Villa / Draw
6%
15.0012.00
Draw / A Villa
17%
5.004.60
4%
Draw / Leeds
9%
10.00
5%
9.00
Draw / Draw
15%
6.005.25
Leeds / A Villa
4%
23.0017.00
Leeds / Leeds
12%
7.506.50
Leeds / Draw
5%
17.0013.00
8%
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Win / draw / win Premier League table

A Villa have played 26 matches so far this season and lay in 3rd place in the Premier League league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 23 games against teams below in the table, having won 13, drawn 5 and lost 5 matches. They have kept 7 clean sheets and have failed to score in 8 fixtures. A Villa have outscored their opponents by 37 goals to 36 goals.

Home League Performance

A Villa have played 13 games at home winning 9, drawing 1 and losing 3 games. They have scored 19 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and conceded 10 goals at home.

Leeds are in 15th position in the Premier League on 30 points having played 26 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

7 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 27 goals and kept 1 clean sheet. They have scored 14 goals in total and failed to score in 5 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

20 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 7 games, drawn 9 and won 4. Leeds have conceded 35 goals, scored 26, failed to score in 6 fixtures and have kept 4 clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
A Villa
Leeds
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Arsenal2617633257 
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-1A
l
 
0-4A
l
 
5-0A
2
Man City2616553053 
w
 
1-0F
May 24
Feb 28
l
 
3-2A
3
A Villa2615561050 
-
-
l
 
1-2F
Feb 21
4
Man Utd2612951045 
w
 
2-1A
Mar 15
d
 
1-1F
Apr 11
5
Chelsea2612861744 
Mar 4
w
 
1-2A
w
 
3-1F
d
 
2-2A
6
Liverpool261268642 
May 17
l
 
2-0A
d
 
3-3A
d
 
0-00-0
7
Brentford2612410540 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
1-0A
Mar 21
d
 
1-1A
8
Everton261079-137 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
1-0F
d
 
1-1F
9
Bournemouth269107-237 
w
 
4-0F
d
 
1-1F
d
 
2-2A
Apr 25
10
Newcastle2610610036 
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
0-2F
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
4-3F
11
Sunderland26998-336 
Apr 18
d
 
1-1F
Mar 3
d
 
1-1A
12
Fulham2610412-534 
w
 
3-1A
Apr 25
w
 
1-0F
l
 
1-0A
13
C Palace268810-432 
l
 
0-3A
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
4-1F
Mar 14
14
Brighton267109031 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
3-4A
May 17
l
 
3-0A
15
Leeds267910-930 
Feb 21
w
 
1-2A
-
-
16
Spurs267811-129 
May 2
w
 
1-2A
l
 
1-2A
May 9
17
Nottm Forest267613-1327 
w
 
3-1F
Apr 11
w
 
3-1F
l
 
3-1F
18
West Ham266614-1724 
Mar 22
w
 
2-3A
w
 
2-1F
May 24
19
Burnley264616-2318 
w
 
2-1F
May 9
May 2
l
 
2-0A
20
Wolves261619-329 
w
 
1-0F
Feb 27
Apr 18
w
 
1-3A
Win / draw / win form
A Villa 3RD
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
33
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
14
D
3
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
A Villa1 - 0Brighton
A Villa0 - 1Brentford
A Villa0 - 1Everton
A Villa3 - 1Nottm Forest
A Villa2 - 1Man Utd
A Villa2 - 1Arsenal
A Villa1 - 0Wolves
A Villa4 - 0Bournemouth
A Villa1 - 0Man City
A Villa2 - 1Burnley
A Villa3 - 1Fulham
A Villa0 - 3C Palace
A Villa0 - 0Newcastle
A Villa2 - 0Spurs
A Villa1 - 0Fulham
A Villa4 - 1Newcastle
A Villa2 - 1Nottm Forest
A Villa2 - 1Chelsea
A Villa2 - 2Liverpool
A Villa1 - 1Ipswich
Goals: Scored
33
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
14
D
2
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HA Villa1 - 0Brighton
AA Villa1 - 1Bournemouth
HA Villa0 - 1Brentford
AA Villa2 - 0Newcastle
HA Villa0 - 1Everton
AA Villa0 - 0C Palace
HA Villa3 - 1Nottm Forest
AA Villa1 - 4Arsenal
AA Villa2 - 1Chelsea
HA Villa2 - 1Man Utd
AA Villa3 - 2West Ham
HA Villa2 - 1Arsenal
AA Villa4 - 3Brighton
HA Villa1 - 0Wolves
AA Villa2 - 1Leeds
HA Villa4 - 0Bournemouth
AA Villa0 - 2Liverpool
HA Villa1 - 0Man City
AA Villa2 - 1Spurs
HA Villa2 - 1Burnley
Leeds 15TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
5
Draw
7
Lost
8
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Chelsea2 - 2Leeds
Everton1 - 1Leeds
Newcastle4 - 3Leeds
Liverpool0 - 0Leeds
Sunderland1 - 1Leeds
Brentford1 - 1Leeds
Man City3 - 2Leeds
Nottm Forest3 - 1Leeds
Brighton3 - 0Leeds
Burnley2 - 0Leeds
Wolves1 - 3Leeds
Fulham1 - 0Leeds
Arsenal5 - 0Leeds
Plymouth1 - 2Leeds
Oxford Utd0 - 1Leeds
M'Boro0 - 1Leeds
Luton1 - 1Leeds
QPR2 - 2Leeds
Portsmouth1 - 0Leeds
Sheff Utd1 - 3Leeds
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
36
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
5
Draw
7
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ALeeds2 - 2Chelsea
HLeeds3 - 1Nottm Forest
HLeeds0 - 4Arsenal
ALeeds1 - 1Everton
HLeeds1 - 0Fulham
ALeeds3 - 4Newcastle
HLeeds1 - 1Man Utd
ALeeds0 - 0Liverpool
ALeeds1 - 1Sunderland
HLeeds4 - 1C Palace
ALeeds1 - 1Brentford
HLeeds3 - 3Liverpool
HLeeds3 - 1Chelsea
ALeeds2 - 3Man City
HLeeds1 - 2A Villa
ALeeds1 - 3Nottm Forest
ALeeds0 - 3Brighton
HLeeds2 - 1West Ham
ALeeds0 - 2Burnley
HLeeds1 - 2Spurs
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
6
A Villa have not lost to Leeds in 6 consecutive league meetings
League games at A Villa since 1992
A Villa
Leeds
Goals: Scored
22
17
Games: Scored
14 / 18
9 / 18
Clean sheets
9 / 18
4 / 18
AVL
8
D
5
LEE
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT A Villa
A Villa2 - 1
Draw3 - 3Draw
0 - 3Leeds
2 - 3Leeds
A Villa1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
A Villa2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 1Leeds
1 - 2Leeds
A Villa1 - 0
1 - 2Leeds
A Villa1 - 0
A Villa2 - 0
A Villa3 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
A Villa1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Leeds since 1992
Leeds
A Villa
Goals: Scored
18
16
Games: Scored
13 / 19
11 / 19
Clean sheets
8 / 19
6 / 19
AVL
5
D
9
LEE
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Leeds
1 - 2A Villa
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 3A Villa
0 - 1A Villa
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Leeds2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Leeds3 - 1
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2A Villa
1 - 2A Villa
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Leeds2 - 0
Leeds1 - 0
Leeds2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Goal Statistics

Aston Villa have been steady in attack of late, finding the net in 12 consecutive English Premier League matches. Their PG of 1.8 against Leeds United on Saturday suggests that run is likely to continue.

A Villa 3rd Leeds 15th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.8
goals
0.9
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
17%
1
30%
2
27%
3
16%
4+
10%
There is a 83% probability that A Villa will score 1 or more goals
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
4+
There is a 78% probability of Leeds scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+2
A Villa’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-4
Leeds’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.7
average goals scored
1.2
average goals scored
0.8
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Premier League - 2025/2026 season
A Villa
PG (predicted goals)
Leeds
1.8
0.9
Attack rating
AVL
LEE
3%
better
view stats
Games scored18
19
Failed to score8
7
Scored first10
11
Goals scored37
36
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.4
Avg. shots per game9
9
Avg. shots per goal6
6
Conversion rate for17
16
Avg. XG for1.4
1.7
KickOff rating
+3%
Defence rating
26%
better
AVL
LEE
view stats
Games conceded18
22
Clean sheets8
4
Conceded first13
13
Goals conceded27
45
Avg. goals conceded1
1.7
Avg. shots/game conceded9
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
5
Conversion rate against12%
19%
Avg. XG against1.5
1.6
KickOff rating
+26%

A Villa v Leeds Premier League lLine ups will show here when available.

A Villa Premier League squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
26855
M RogersM RogersM RogersM Rogers
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Rogers MID2685
5
-
E Konsa DEF25
1
O Watkins FWD2581
1
-
M Cash DEF2432
5
-
E Buendía MID2452
3
-
L Digne DEF234
3
-
E Martínez GLK22
2
-
J McGinn MID2232
3
-
L Bogarde MID21
5
-
I Maatsen DEF20
2
-
B Kamara MID1813
5
-
A Onana MID172
2
-
Y Tielemans MID174
-
P Torres DEF15
-
J Sancho FWD151
-
V Lindelöf DEF121
-
T Mings DEF10
-
R Barkley MID91
-
M Bizot GLK5
2
-
H Elliot MID4
-
L Bailey FWD4
-
D Luiz MID3
-
T Abraham FWD3
-
A García DEF2
-
A. da Rocha dos Santos FWD1
-
Leeds Premier League squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
241037
G Gudmundsson D Calvert-LewinB AaronsonE Ampadu
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
G Gudmundsson  DEF25
4
-
B Aaronson MID2543
1
-
J Rodon DEF242
1
-
J Bogle  DEF2412
4
-
P Struijk DEF231
3
-
E Ampadu MID2311
7
-
N Okafor FWD234
3
-
D Calvert-Lewin FWD23101
1
-
A Stach MID2133
3
-
A Tanaka MID202
1
-
L Nmecha  FWD2061
-
J Justin  DEF1711
2
-
I Gruev MID173
2
-
L Perri GLK16
2
-
S Longstaff MID1612
2
-
W Gnonto FWD141
2
-
J Bijol DEF1311
1
-
D James FWD12
-
J Piroe FWD11
-
K Darlow GLK10
-
S Bornauw DEF9
1
-
F Buonanotte MID2
1
-
S Byram DEF1
-