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Leeds United v Burnley : Premier League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 1st May, 20:00 BST, Elland Road, Leeds

Friday night sees Daniel Farke’s Leeds United and Scott Parker’s Burnley go up against one another in a English Premier League clash at the Elland Road. The predictions for all the markets are based on the past 20 games each side has played (at home, away or overall) with additional weight applied to top teams. All the stats and graphics are tailored for the selected market. Head to head (H2H) stats for this fixture are also given if there are are enough previous meetings. Odds are provided directly from from the UK's biggest bookmakers.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Premier League Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We make over 1.5 goals our tip on this one, meaning that the teams will score a minimum of 2 goals between them during 90 mins. Both Leeds and Burnley's current form stats suggest things will go that way, while their head-to-head (H2H) record also supports the bet. The bookies make it the most probable outcome in this market too, available at 1.22.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Leeds are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 60% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.48.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Leeds
60%
9/2010/21
3%
Draw
22%
16/517/5
2%
Burnley
19%
11/26/1
Leeds 1-0
11%
7/16/1
Draw 1-1
10%
8/17/1
Leeds 2-0
10%
7/16/1
Leeds 2-1
10%
8/17/1
Leeds 3-0
7%
10/18/1
Leeds 3-1
6%
12/110/1
Draw 0-0
6%
12/110/1
8%
Burnley 1-0
5%
18/114/1
Burnley 2-1
5%
20/116/1
Draw 2-2
5%
18/114/1
Leeds 4-0
3%
20/114/1
Leeds 3-2
3%
28/120/1
Leeds 4-1
3%
22/116/1
Burnley 2-0
3%
40/125/1
Burnley 3-1
2%
50/133/1
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
8/117/10
Under 2.5 Goals
45%
11/1021/20
Home 1st Goal
56%
4/92/5
3%
Away 1st Goal
40%
2/112/5
No 1st Goal
3%
12/19/1
9%
BTTS - Yes
53%
10/1110/11
BTTS - No
47%
10/114/5
BTTS - Home Win
27%
11/521/10
BTTS - Draw
16%
9/29/2
BTTS - Away Win
9%
11/110/1
Home/draw
81%
1/91/10
Away/draw
40%
13/817/10
Home/away
78%
2/91/5
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
2/92/9
Under 1.5 Goals
22%
10/329/10
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
7/417/10
Under 3.5 Goals
67%
4/94/9
Over 4.5 Goals
17%
4/119/5
Under 4.5 Goals
84%
1/61/6
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
9/18/1
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
1/161/20
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1/251/33
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
12/110/1
Home DNB
75%
1/61/7
Away DNB
34%
4/14/1
Leeds win to nil
32%
6/4-
Burnley win to nil
9%
10/1-
Leeds / Leeds
39%
5/411/10
2%
Leeds / Burnley
2%
40/133/1
Leeds / Draw
5%
16/112/1
13%
Draw / Leeds
19%
10/316/5
3%
Draw / Burnley
6%
14/111/1
8%
Draw / Draw
13%
6/15/1
Burnley / Leeds
4%
20/116/1
Burnley / Burnley
7%
11/19/1
5%
Burnley / Draw
5%
18/114/1
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Win / draw / win Premier League table

Leeds have played 33 matches so far this season and lay in 15th place in the Premier League league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 7 games against teams below in the table, having won 4, drawn 0 and lost 3 matches. They have kept 1 clean sheet and have failed to score in 1 fixture. Leeds have outscored their opponents by 42 goals to 34 goals.

Home League Performance

Leeds have played 17 games at home winning 7, drawing 5 and losing 5 games. They have scored 25 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and conceded 20 goals at home.

Burnley are in 19th position in the Premier League on 20 points having played 33 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

12 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 42 goals and kept no clean sheets. They have scored 19 goals in total and failed to score in 4 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

32 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 21 games, drawn 8 and won 3. Burnley have conceded 65 goals, scored 31, failed to score in 12 fixtures and have kept 4 clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Leeds
Burnley
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Arsenal3321753770 
l
 
0-4A
l
 
5-0A
l
 
0-2A
May 17
2
Man City3220753667 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
3-2A
Apr 22
l
 
5-1A
3
Man Utd33161071358 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
1-2F
d
 
2-2F
l
 
3-2A
4
A Villa331779658 
l
 
1-2F
d
 
1-1F
May 10
l
 
2-1A
5
Liverpool33167101155 
d
 
3-3A
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1A
6
Chelsea33139111148 
w
 
3-1F
d
 
2-2A
l
 
0-2A
d
 
1-1A
7
Brentford3313911448 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
l
 
3-4A
l
 
3-1A
8
Bournemouth3311157048 
d
 
2-2A
Apr 22
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
9
Brighton33121110647 
May 17
l
 
3-0A
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-0A
10
Everton3313812147 
w
 
1-0F
d
 
1-1F
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-0A
11
Sunderland33121011-446 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1A
w
 
2-0F
l
 
3-0A
12
Fulham3313614-345 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
1-0A
l
 
2-3A
l
 
3-1F
13
C Palace3111911-142 
w
 
4-1F
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
0-1A
w
 
2-3A
14
Newcastle3312615-342 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
4-3F
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
15
Leeds3391212-739 
-
-
w
 
2-0F
May 1
16
Nottm Forest339915-936 
w
 
3-1F
l
 
3-1F
d
 
1-1A
l
 
4-1F
17
West Ham328816-1732 
w
 
2-1F
May 24
l
 
0-2A
l
 
3-2F
18
Spurs3371016-1131 
l
 
1-2A
May 11
d
 
2-2A
l
 
3-0A
19
Burnley334821-3320 
May 1
l
 
2-0A
-
-
20
Wolves333822-3717 
w
 
3-0F
w
 
1-3A
May 24
w
 
2-3F
Win / draw / win form
Leeds 15TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Leeds3 - 0Wolves
Leeds0 - 0Brentford
Leeds0 - 1Sunderland
Leeds0 - 1Man City
Leeds3 - 1Nottm Forest
Leeds0 - 4Arsenal
Leeds1 - 0Fulham
Leeds1 - 1Man Utd
Leeds4 - 1C Palace
Leeds3 - 3Liverpool
Leeds3 - 1Chelsea
Leeds1 - 2A Villa
Leeds2 - 1West Ham
Leeds1 - 2Spurs
Leeds2 - 2Bournemouth
Leeds0 - 0Newcastle
Leeds1 - 0Everton
Leeds4 - 0Bristol C
Leeds6 - 0Stoke
Leeds2 - 1Preston
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
10
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HLeeds3 - 0Wolves
ALeeds2 - 1Man Utd
HLeeds0 - 0Brentford
ALeeds0 - 0C Palace
HLeeds0 - 1Sunderland
HLeeds0 - 1Man City
ALeeds1 - 1A Villa
ALeeds2 - 2Chelsea
HLeeds3 - 1Nottm Forest
HLeeds0 - 4Arsenal
ALeeds1 - 1Everton
HLeeds1 - 0Fulham
ALeeds3 - 4Newcastle
HLeeds1 - 1Man Utd
ALeeds0 - 0Liverpool
ALeeds1 - 1Sunderland
HLeeds4 - 1C Palace
ALeeds1 - 1Brentford
HLeeds3 - 3Liverpool
HLeeds3 - 1Chelsea
Burnley 19TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
40
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
5
D
4
Lost
11
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Fulham3 - 1Burnley
Everton2 - 0Burnley
Chelsea1 - 1Burnley
C Palace2 - 3Burnley
Sunderland3 - 0Burnley
Liverpool1 - 1Burnley
Brighton2 - 0Burnley
Bournemouth1 - 1Burnley
Newcastle2 - 1Burnley
Brentford3 - 1Burnley
West Ham3 - 2Burnley
Wolves2 - 3Burnley
A Villa2 - 1Burnley
Man City5 - 1Burnley
Man Utd3 - 2Burnley
Spurs3 - 0Burnley
QPR0 - 5Burnley
Watford1 - 2Burnley
Derby0 - 0Burnley
Coventry1 - 2Burnley
Goals: Scored
19
Conceded
39
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
1
Draw
7
Lost
12
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HBurnley0 - 2Brighton
ABurnley1 - 3Fulham
HBurnley0 - 0Bournemouth
ABurnley0 - 2Everton
HBurnley3 - 4Brentford
ABurnley1 - 1Chelsea
ABurnley3 - 2C Palace
HBurnley0 - 2West Ham
ABurnley0 - 3Sunderland
HBurnley2 - 2Spurs
ABurnley1 - 1Liverpool
HBurnley2 - 2Man Utd
ABurnley0 - 2Brighton
HBurnley1 - 3Newcastle
HBurnley0 - 0Everton
ABurnley1 - 1Bournemouth
HBurnley2 - 3Fulham
ABurnley1 - 2Newcastle
HBurnley0 - 1C Palace
ABurnley1 - 3Brentford
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive league meetings with Leeds
League games at Leeds since 2004
Leeds
Burnley
Goals: Scored
14
8
Games: Scored
10 / 11
6 / 11
Clean sheets
5 / 11
1 / 11
LEE
7
D
1
BRN
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Leeds
0 - 1Burnley
Leeds3 - 1
Leeds1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Burnley
Leeds1 - 0
Leeds2 - 1
Leeds1 - 0
Leeds1 - 0
Leeds2 - 0
1 - 2Burnley
League games at Burnley since 2005
Burnley
Leeds
Goals: Scored
12
15
Games: Scored
8 / 11
8 / 11
Clean sheets
3 / 11
3 / 11
LEE
5
D
2
BRN
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Burnley
Burnley2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 4Leeds
Burnley2 - 1
Burnley1 - 0
1 - 2Leeds
2 - 3Leeds
Burnley2 - 1
1 - 2Leeds
0 - 1Leeds
Goal Statistics

Leeds United's defensive record is very strong, D. Farke's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive English Premier League outings. An average PG rating of 1.0 for Burnley makes sense in this context.

Leeds 15th Burnley 19th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.9
goals
1.0
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
15%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4+
13%
There is a 85% probability that Leeds will score 1 or more goals
0
38%
1
37%
2
18%
3
4+
There is a 75% probability of Burnley scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+24
Leeds have scored 24% more goals at home than predicted
+18
Burnley have scored 18% more goals when away than predicted
1.9
average goals scored
1.4
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
2.0
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Premier League - 2025/2026 season
Leeds
PG (predicted goals)
Burnley
1.9
1
Attack rating
14%
better
LEE
BRN
view stats
Games scored22
20
Failed to score11
12
Scored first14
6
Goals scored42
33
Avg. goals scored1.3
1
Avg. shots per game9
6
Avg. shots per goal7
6
Conversion rate for14
16
Avg. XG for1.6
0.9
KickOff rating
+14%
Defence rating
18%
better
LEE
BRN
view stats
Games conceded26
28
Clean sheets7
4
Conceded first15
24
Goals conceded49
63
Avg. goals conceded1.5
1.9
Avg. shots/game conceded9
12
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
6
Conversion rate against17%
16%
Avg. XG against1.6
2.2
KickOff rating
+18%

Leeds v Burnley Premier League lLine ups will show here when available.

Leeds Premier League squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
301158
G Gudmundsson D Calvert-LewinB AaronsonE Ampadu
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
B Aaronson MID3245
2
-
G Gudmundsson  DEF31
5
1
J Bogle  DEF3113
6
-
J Rodon DEF302
1
-
P Struijk DEF301
4
-
E Ampadu MID3011
8
-
D Calvert-Lewin FWD30111
1
-
A Stach MID2643
3
-
N Okafor FWD2671
3
-
L Nmecha  FWD2661
-
J Justin  DEF2421
4
-
A Tanaka MID232
1
-
I Gruev MID233
3
-
J Bijol DEF2011
3
-
S Longstaff MID1912
2
-
W Gnonto FWD181
3
-
K Darlow GLK17
1
-
L Perri GLK16
2
-
D James FWD15
-
J Piroe FWD13
-
S Bornauw DEF9
1
-
F Buonanotte MID2
1
-
S Byram DEF1
-
Burnley Premier League squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
32848
M DúbravkaZ FlemmingQ HartmanK Walker
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Dúbravka GLK32
1
-
L Ugochukwu MID3131
2
1
J Anthony FWD3171
4
-
K Walker DEF302
8
-
M Estève DEF29
1
-
J Laurent MID281
7
1
Florentino MID252
5
-
J Larsen  FWD241
-
H Mejbri MID2313
7
-
L Tchaouna FWD231
1
-
L Foster FWD2332
4
-
Z Flemming FWD2381
3
-
A Broja  FWD2111
-
M Edwards FWD2013
-
Q Hartman DEF184
1
-
J Cullen MID1822
2
-
H Ekdal DEF16
-
B Humphreys DEF16
4
-
L Pires DEF16
1
A Tuanzebe  DEF111
1
-
J Worrall DEF111
-
J Ward-Prowse MID71
1
-
A Barnes FWD6
1
-
M Trésor MID5
-