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FC St. Pauli v 1. FSV Mainz 05 : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 3rd May, 14:30 BST, Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

the Millerntor-Stadion faithful welcome 1. FSV Mainz 05's supporters on Sunday afternoon, as Alexander Blessin's FC St. Pauli clash with Urs Fischer's charges in the Bundesliga. Stats drive the algorithmic predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and switching between them shows bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and a whole lot more besides. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Click on the tabs below to find out more.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Bundesliga Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

There's 74% chance of St. Pauli and Mainz no more than 3 goals combined during this Bundesliga fixture according to our predictive algorithm and, in the absense of a strong favourite in the win draw win market, we think that's where the smart money should go. Our calculations are made based on latest form, historical head-to-head (H2H) stats and the view of the betting market, and you can go with it at a best price of 1.25.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think St. Pauli are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 37% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 3.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
St. Pauli 37%	3.00	2.88
Draw 26%	3.20	3.25
Mainz 37%	2.40	2.50
Draw 1-1 13%	6.00	5.75
Mainz 1-0 10%	7.50	7.00
St. Pauli 1-0 10%	8.50	7.50
Mainz 2-1 8%	10.00	8.50
St. Pauli 2-1 8%	11.00	9.00
Draw 0-0 7%	8.50	7.50
Mainz 2-0 6%	11.00	10.00
St. Pauli 2-0 6%	15.00	12.00
Draw 2-2 5%	15.00	13.00
Mainz 3-1 4%	21.00	17.00
St. Pauli 3-1 4%	26.00	19.00
Mainz 3-0 3%	23.00	19.00
St. Pauli 3-0 3%	34.00	23.00
Mainz 3-2 2%	34.00	23.00
St. Pauli 3-2 2%	34.00	26.00
Over 2.5 Goals 48%	2.20	2.15
Under 2.5 Goals 52%	1.67	1.65
Home 1st Goal 48%	2.10	2.10
Away 1st Goal 48%	1.91	1.95
No 1st Goal 5%	8.50	7.50
BTTS - Yes 53%	1.91	1.85
BTTS - No 47%	1.91	1.85
BTTS - Home Win 17%	6.50	5.50
BTTS - Draw 19%	4.50	4.33
BTTS - Away Win 17%	5.50	5.00
Home/draw 63%	1.53	1.53
Away/draw 63%	1.36	1.40
Home/away 74%	1.36	1.33
Over 1.5 Goals 73%	1.40	1.36
Under 1.5 Goals 27%	3.00	2.90
Over 3.5 Goals 26%	4.00	3.80
Under 3.5 Goals 74%	1.25	1.22
Over 4.5 Goals 12%	9.00	7.50
Under 4.5 Goals 88%	1.07	1.07
Over 5.5 Goals 5%	19.00	15.00
Under 5.5 Goals 95%	1.02	1.01
Over 0.5 Goals 93%	1.08	1.07
Under 0.5 Goals 7%	8.00	8.00
Home DNB 55%	2.10	2.00
Away DNB 56%	1.67	1.73
St. Pauli win to nil 20%	5.00	-
Mainz win to nil 20%	3.75	-
St. Pauli / St. Pauli 17%	5.00	4.40
St. Pauli / Mainz 3%	29.00	21.00
St. Pauli / Draw 6%	15.00	12.00
Draw / St. Pauli 12%	6.50	6.50
Draw / Mainz 14%	5.50	5.75
Draw / Draw 17%	4.75	4.50
Mainz / St. Pauli 3%	29.00	23.00
Mainz / Mainz 21%	4.00	3.75
Mainz / Draw 6%	15.00	12.00

Win / draw / win Bundesliga table

St. Pauli have played 30 matches so far this season and are in 16th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

28 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 15 games, drawn 8 and won 5. St. Pauli have conceded 48 goals, scored 23, failed to score in 12 matches and kept 5 clean sheets.

Home league performance

St. Pauli have played 15 games at home, winning 4, drawing 5 and losing 6 fixtures. They have scored 15 goals, conceded 26 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score 6 times in home league games.

Mainz lay in 10th place on 34 points in the Bundesliga league table having played 30 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 13 games against teams below them in the table, winning 3, drawing 6 and losing 4 games. They have scored 14 goals and kept 2 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Mainz have conceded 16 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

Mainz have played 15 away games, winning 4, drawing 5 and losing 6 games. They have scored an average of 1.3 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.8 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	St. Pauli Mainz
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Bayern	30	25	4	1	80	79	l 0-5A	l 3-1F	Apr 25	d 2-2A
2	Dortmund	30	19	7	4	30	64	d 3-3A	l 3-2A	l 0-2A	l 4-0A
3	RB Leipzig	31	19	5	7	24	62	d 1-1A	May 9	l 0-1A	w 1-2A
4	Stuttgart	30	17	5	8	20	56	w 2-1F	l 2-0A	d 2-2F	l 2-1F
5	Hoffenheim	30	16	6	8	15	54	l 0-3A	w 0-1F	d 1-1A	w 1-2F
6	Leverkusen	30	15	7	8	19	52	l 1-2A	l 4-0A	l 3-4A	d 1-1F
7	Freiburg	30	12	7	11	-4	43	l 1-2F	l 2-1A	l 0-1A	l 4-0A
8	E.Frankfurt	30	11	9	10	-2	42	d 0-00-0	l 2-0A	w 2-1F	l 1-0A
9	Augsburg	30	10	6	14	-16	36	w 2-1A	l 2-1F	w 2-0F	w 1-4F
10	Mainz	30	8	10	12	-9	34	May 3	d 0-00-0	-	-
11	Union Berlin	31	8	8	15	-20	32	l 0-1A	d 1-1F	May 10	d 2-2F
12	Köln	30	7	10	13	-7	31	d 1-1F	d 1-1A	l 0-1A	l 2-1F
13	B. M'gladbach	30	7	10	13	-14	31	l 0-4A	l 2-0A	l 0-1A	d 1-1A
14	Hamburg	30	7	10	13	-15	31	d 0-00-0	w 0-2F	d 1-1F	l 4-0A
15	W.Bremen	30	8	7	15	-18	31	w 2-1F	l 1-0A	d 1-1F	w 0-2F
16	St. Pauli	30	6	8	16	-25	26	-	-	d 0-00-0	May 3
17	Wolfsburg	30	6	6	18	-25	24	May 16	l 2-1A	w 3-1A	d 1-1A
18	Heidenheim	30	4	7	19	-33	19	w 2-1F	Apr 25	w 2-1F	May 16

	UEFA Champions League
	UEFA Europa League
	UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
	Relegation Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
St. Pauli	1 - 1	Köln
St. Pauli	0 - 5	Bayern
St. Pauli	1 - 2	Freiburg
St. Pauli	0 - 0	E.Frankfurt
St. Pauli	2 - 1	W.Bremen
St. Pauli	2 - 1	Stuttgart
St. Pauli	1 - 1	RB Leipzig
St. Pauli	0 - 0	Hamburg
St. Pauli	2 - 1	Heidenheim
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Union Berlin
St. Pauli	0 - 4	B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli	0 - 3	Hoffenheim
St. Pauli	1 - 2	Leverkusen
St. Pauli	2 - 1	Augsburg
St. Pauli	3 - 3	Dortmund
St. Pauli	0 - 2	VfL Bochum
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Stuttgart
St. Pauli	1 - 1	Leverkusen
St. Pauli	1 - 1	B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli	1 - 0	Hoffenheim

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	St. Pauli	1 - 1	Köln
H	St. Pauli	0 - 5	Bayern
A	St. Pauli	1 - 1	Union Berlin
H	St. Pauli	1 - 2	Freiburg
A	St. Pauli	0 - 2	B. M'gladbach
H	St. Pauli	0 - 0	E.Frankfurt
A	St. Pauli	1 - 0	Hoffenheim
H	St. Pauli	2 - 1	W.Bremen
A	St. Pauli	0 - 4	Leverkusen
H	St. Pauli	2 - 1	Stuttgart
A	St. Pauli	1 - 2	Augsburg
H	St. Pauli	1 - 1	RB Leipzig
H	St. Pauli	0 - 0	Hamburg
A	St. Pauli	2 - 3	Dortmund
A	St. Pauli	1 - 2	Wolfsburg
A	St. Pauli	0 - 0	Mainz
H	St. Pauli	2 - 1	Heidenheim
A	St. Pauli	1 - 1	Köln
A	St. Pauli	1 - 3	Bayern
H	St. Pauli	0 - 1	Union Berlin

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

19 / 20

Clean sheets

1 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
B. M'gladbach	1 - 1	Mainz
Hoffenheim	1 - 2	Mainz
W.Bremen	0 - 2	Mainz
Leverkusen	1 - 1	Mainz
Dortmund	4 - 0	Mainz
RB Leipzig	1 - 2	Mainz
Köln	2 - 1	Mainz
Union Berlin	2 - 2	Mainz
Bayern	2 - 2	Mainz
Freiburg	4 - 0	Mainz
E.Frankfurt	1 - 0	Mainz
Stuttgart	2 - 1	Mainz
Hamburg	4 - 0	Mainz
Augsburg	1 - 4	Mainz
Wolfsburg	1 - 1	Mainz
VfL Bochum	1 - 4	Mainz
Bayern	3 - 0	Mainz
Hoffenheim	2 - 0	Mainz
Dortmund	3 - 1	Mainz
B. M'gladbach	1 - 3	Mainz

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Mainz	1 - 1	B. M'gladbach
H	Mainz	0 - 1	Freiburg
A	Mainz	2 - 1	Hoffenheim
H	Mainz	2 - 1	E.Frankfurt
A	Mainz	2 - 0	W.Bremen
H	Mainz	2 - 2	Stuttgart
A	Mainz	1 - 1	Leverkusen
H	Mainz	1 - 1	Hamburg
A	Mainz	0 - 4	Dortmund
H	Mainz	2 - 0	Augsburg
A	Mainz	2 - 1	RB Leipzig
H	Mainz	3 - 1	Wolfsburg
A	Mainz	1 - 2	Köln
H	Mainz	2 - 1	Heidenheim
A	Mainz	2 - 2	Union Berlin
H	Mainz	0 - 0	St. Pauli
A	Mainz	2 - 2	Bayern
H	Mainz	0 - 1	B. M'gladbach
A	Mainz	0 - 4	Freiburg
H	Mainz	1 - 1	Hoffenheim

Goal Statistics

Goals have been a problem for FC St. Pauli of late. It has been 7 Bundesliga games since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.3 suggests they'll struggle to end that run on Sunday afternoon against 1. FSV Mainz 05.

	St. Pauli 16th	Mainz 10th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.3 goals	1.3 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 27% 1 35% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 62% probability that St. Pauli will score no more than 1 goal	0 27% 1 35% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 62% probability that Mainz will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-33 St. Pauli have scored 33% fewer goals at home than predicted	+3 Mainz’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	0.9 average goals scored	1.4 average goals scored
	1.6 conceded	1.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Bundesliga - 2025/2025 season

STP

M05

18%

better

view stats

Games scored	18		20
Failed to score	12		10
Scored first	10		13
Goals scored	26		36
Avg. goals scored	0.9		1.2
Avg. shots per game	7		8
Avg. shots per goal	8		7
Conversion rate for	12		15
Avg. XG for	1		1.5
KickOff rating		+18%

STP

M05

better

view stats

Games conceded	25		27
Clean sheets	5		3
Conceded first	17		16
Goals conceded	51		45
Avg. goals conceded	1.7		1.5
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	5		7
Conversion rate against	19%		15%
Avg. XG against	1.6		1.6
KickOff rating		+2%

St. Pauli v Mainz Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

St. Pauli Bundesliga squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
30	5	3	5
N Vasilj	D Sinani	J Fujita	J Fujita

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
N Vasilj GLK	30			-
J Fujita MID	28	1	3	5 -
M Lage FWD	28	2	2	4 -
A Pyrka DEF	27		1	3 -
D Sinani MID	27	5	3	4 -
H Wahl DEF	26	2	1	1 -
M Kaars FWD	25	3		1 -
E Smith DEF	24	2	2	4 1
J Sands MID	24	1		4 -
L. Oppie DEF	21	1		-
K Mets DEF	21	1		2 -
C Metcalfe MID	21		1	1 -
J Irvine MID	20			1 1
L Ritzka DEF	18			1 -
A Dzwigala DEF	17	1	1	5 -
A Hountondji FWD	17	4		2 -
M Saliakas DEF	16	1	3	3 -
A. Ceesay FWD	16			2 -
R Jade-Jones FWD	8	2		1 -
O Afolayan FWD	7			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	18	3	5
D Sinani	D Sinani	J Fujita	J Fujita

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
D Sinani MID	5	18	3	5
A Hountondji FWD	4	11
M Kaars FWD	3	9		1
M Lage FWD	2	15	2	4
H Wahl DEF	2	4	1	1
E Smith DEF	2	5	2
R Jade-Jones FWD	2	6		1
J Fujita MID	1	6	3	5
J Sands MID	1	4		2
L. Oppie DEF	1	3		3
K Mets DEF	1	1
A Dzwigala DEF	1	2	1
M Saliakas DEF	1	3	3	1
A Pyrka DEF		3	1	5
C Metcalfe MID		3	1	2
J Irvine MID		3		1
L Ritzka DEF		1		2
A. Ceesay FWD		1
O Afolayan FWD		2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1391	55	139
H Wahl	J Fujita	J Sands

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
H Wahl DEF	1391	40	102
E Smith DEF	1363	32	93
J Fujita MID	1066	55	121
K Mets DEF	1063	25	69
N Vasilj GLK	997	1	14
D Sinani MID	889	24	73
J Sands MID	881	42	139
A Pyrka DEF	802	32	80
L. Oppie DEF	600	24	46
A Dzwigala DEF	552	44	78
J Irvine MID	539	22	80
M Saliakas DEF	494	28	47
M Lage FWD	486	38	128
L Ritzka DEF	335	34	46
M Kaars FWD	271	7	30
C Metcalfe MID	142	11	23
A Hountondji FWD	117	6	27
O Afolayan FWD	64	4	15
R Jade-Jones FWD	53	3	24
A. Ceesay FWD	49	1	18

Mainz Bundesliga squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
30	11	3	11
K Sano	N Amiri	D Costa	D Kohr

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
D Costa DEF	30	2	3	3 -
K Sano MID	30	1	1	1 -
J Lee MID	26	4	2	3 -
P Nebel MID	26	4	1	2 2
P Mwene DEF	25		2	4 -
D Kohr DEF	25	1		9 2
S Widmer DEF	24	2		5 -
N Amiri MID	22	11	2	6 -
N Veratschnig MID	20		1	3 -
N Weiper FWD	20			1 -
A Sieb FWD	19	2		1 -
D Batz GLK	18			1 -
D Hoof DEF	18	2	1	4 -
L Maloney MID	18			1 -
B Hollerbach FWD	14	1	3	-
A Hanche-Olsen DEF	13		1	3 -
A Nordin FWD	13			-
S Kawasaki MID	10			1 -
R Zentner GLK	9			2 1
W Bøving FWD	8		1	1 -
A Caci DEF	6			2 -
L Rieß GLK	4			-
M Leitsch DEF	3			-
B Bobzien FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
11	16	3	9
N Amiri	N Amiri	D Costa	P Nebel

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
N Amiri MID	11	16	2	9
J Lee MID	4	9	2	7
P Nebel MID	4	6	1	9
D Costa DEF	2	5	3	6
S Widmer DEF	2	4		3
A Sieb FWD	2	6		1
D Hoof DEF	2	5	1	3
K Sano MID	1	4	1	5
D Kohr DEF	1	2		2
B Hollerbach FWD	1	6	3	3
P Mwene DEF			2	4
N Veratschnig MID		1	1	2
N Weiper FWD		7
L Maloney MID		1
A Hanche-Olsen DEF		3	1	1
A Nordin FWD		2
W Bøving FWD			1	1
A Caci DEF				2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1122	47	166
K Sano	D Kohr	K Sano

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
K Sano MID	1122	46	166
D Costa DEF	1044	39	118
D Kohr DEF	1008	47	126
N Amiri MID	969	28	81
J Lee MID	655	37	105
P Nebel MID	641	41	84
D Batz GLK	570		9
S Widmer DEF	484	33	70
P Mwene DEF	469	22	66
A Hanche-Olsen DEF	438	9	66
D Hoof DEF	417	12	80
R Zentner GLK	338		8
A Caci DEF	230	11	24
N Veratschnig MID	198	17	40
B Hollerbach FWD	184	15	55
L Maloney MID	161	11	31
A Nordin FWD	160	10	29
A Sieb FWD	128	8	27
N Weiper FWD	126	3	45
L Rieß GLK	99		4
M Leitsch DEF	90	3	9
S Kawasaki MID	74	11	17
W Bøving FWD	58	6	11
B Bobzien FWD	10	2	2