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FC St. Pauli v 1. FSV Mainz 05 : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

1. FSV Mainz 05 are on the road on Sunday afternoon, as manager Urs Fischer takes his men to visit FC St. Pauli and Alexander Blessin at the Millerntor-Stadion in the Bundesliga. Stats drive the algorithmic predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and changing between them will display bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and a whole lot more besides. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Hit the tabs below to find out more.

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The last German Bundesliga meeting between St. Pauli and Mainz was on Sunday 3rd May 2026
German Bundesliga
May 3rd 2026
St. Pauli 1
2 Mainz
 
A. Ceesay 87'6' P. Tietz
40' P. Mwene
 
STP
M05
Shots On
3
6
Shots Off
5
4
Corners
7
7
Possession
52%
48%
Fouls
10
8
Yellow/red cards
3/0
1/0
 
St. PauliMainz
 
K. Mets
H. Wahl
E. Smith (A. Ceesay 65')
A. Pyrka
T. Ando
J. Irvine (M. Rasmussen 84')
D. Sinani (C. Metcalfe 46')
J. Fujita
N. Vasilj
L. Ritzka (A. Dźwigała 46')
A. Hountondji (M. Kaars 65')
football iconP. Mwene
S. Posch
K. Sano
P. Nebel
(L. Maloney 84') N. Amiri
(N. Weiper 84') football iconP. Tietz
D. Vieira da Costa
D. Batz
(A. Caci 77') S. Widmer
(D. Kohr 76') K. Potulski
(A. Sieb 72') S. Becker

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Bundesliga Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We predict there's very little chance of a bore-draw or a slim 1-0 win here, and instead are predicting over 1.5 goals. That means that St. Pauli and Mainz will score at least two between them during the standard 90 mins. This is based on the recent form of the respective sides, as well as past records of their head-to-head clashes. We give it a probability of 74%. The bookmakers have it available at 1.33.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think St. Pauli are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 37% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.80.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
St. Pauli
37%
15/8150/1
Draw
26%
9/416/1
Mainz
36%
6/41/80
Draw 1-1
13%
5/14/1
St. Pauli 1-0
10%
8/113/2
Mainz 1-0
9%
7/118/5
St. Pauli 2-1
8%
10/117/2
Mainz 2-1
8%
9/12/7
Draw 0-0
7%
8/17/1
St. Pauli 2-0
6%
12/110/1
Mainz 2-0
6%
11/110/21
Draw 2-2
5%
12/16/1
St. Pauli 3-1
4%
22/122/1
Mainz 3-1
4%
20/111/2
St. Pauli 3-0
3%
28/120/1
Mainz 3-0
3%
22/117/4
St. Pauli 3-2
2%
33/150/1
Mainz 3-2
2%
28/128/1
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
11/106/4
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
8/1110/21
Home 1st Goal
48%
21/2021/20
Away 1st Goal
47%
10/111/1
No 1st Goal
5%
8/113/2
BTTS - Yes
53%
4/57/2
BTTS - No
47%
19/202/11
BTTS - Home Win
17%
5/140/1
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/36/1
BTTS - Away Win
17%
9/21/12
Home/draw
64%
1/214/1
Away/draw
63%
2/51/1000
Home/away
74%
1/31/150
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
4/111/6
Under 1.5 Goals
26%
11/519/5
Over 3.5 Goals
27%
11/47/1
Under 3.5 Goals
73%
2/71/16
Over 4.5 Goals
13%
7/155/1
Under 4.5 Goals
87%
1/121/1000
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
16/166/1
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1/331/1000
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1/141/16
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
8/17/1
Home DNB
56%
1/140/1
Away DNB
55%
8/111/1000
St. Pauli win to nil
20%
4/1-
Mainz win to nil
19%
10/3-
St. Pauli / St. Pauli
19%
7/21/50
St. Pauli / Mainz
3%
28/11/50
St. Pauli / Draw
6%
14/11/50
Draw / St. Pauli
13%
11/2100/1
Draw / Mainz
13%
5/1150/1
Draw / Draw
16%
4/1125/1
Mainz / St. Pauli
3%
28/122/1
Mainz / Mainz
20%
3/11/14
Mainz / Draw
6%
12/18/1
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Win / draw / win Bundesliga table

St. Pauli have played 31 matches so far this season and are in 16th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

28 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 15 games, drawn 8 and won 5. St. Pauli have conceded 48 goals, scored 23, failed to score in 12 matches and kept 5 clean sheets.

Home league performance

St. Pauli have played 15 games at home, winning 4, drawing 5 and losing 6 fixtures. They have scored 15 goals, conceded 26 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score 6 times in home league games.

Mainz lay in 10th place on 34 points in the Bundesliga league table having played 31 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 13 games against teams below them in the table, winning 3, drawing 6 and losing 4 games. They have scored 14 goals and kept 2 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Mainz have conceded 16 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

Mainz have played 15 away games, winning 4, drawing 5 and losing 6 games. They have scored an average of 1.3 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.8 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
St. Pauli
Mainz
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Bayern3428518689 
l
 
0-5A
l
 
3-1F
l
 
3-4F
d
 
2-2A
2
Dortmund3422753673 
d
 
3-3A
l
 
3-2A
l
 
0-2A
l
 
4-0A
3
RB Leipzig3420591965 
d
 
1-1A
l
 
2-1A
l
 
0-1A
w
 
1-2A
4
Stuttgart3418882262 
w
 
2-1F
l
 
2-0A
d
 
2-2F
l
 
2-1F
5
Hoffenheim3418791361 
l
 
0-3A
w
 
0-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
6
Leverkusen3417892159 
l
 
1-2A
l
 
4-0A
l
 
3-4A
d
 
1-1F
7
Freiburg3413813-647 
l
 
1-2F
l
 
2-1A
l
 
0-1A
l
 
4-0A
8
E.Frankfurt34111112-444 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-0A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
1-0A
9
Augsburg3412715-1643 
w
 
2-1A
l
 
2-1F
w
 
2-0F
w
 
1-4F
10
Mainz34101014-940 
l
 
1-2A
d
 
0-00-0
-
-
11
Union Berlin3410915-1439 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-3A
d
 
2-2F
12
B. M'gladbach3491114-1138 
l
 
0-4A
l
 
2-0A
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1A
13
Hamburg3491114-1438 
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
0-2F
d
 
1-1F
l
 
4-0A
14
Köln3471116-1432 
d
 
1-1F
d
 
1-1A
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-1F
15
W.Bremen348818-2332 
w
 
2-1F
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-2F
16
Wolfsburg347819-2429 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
w
 
3-1A
d
 
1-1A
17
Heidenheim346820-3126 
w
 
2-1F
l
 
2-0A
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-2F
18
St. Pauli346820-3126 
-
-
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
1-2F
Win / draw / win form
St. Pauli 18TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
18
Conceded
31
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
5
Draw
7
Lost
8
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
St. Pauli1 - 1Köln
St. Pauli0 - 5Bayern
St. Pauli1 - 2Freiburg
St. Pauli0 - 0E.Frankfurt
St. Pauli2 - 1W.Bremen
St. Pauli2 - 1Stuttgart
St. Pauli1 - 1RB Leipzig
St. Pauli0 - 0Hamburg
St. Pauli2 - 1Heidenheim
St. Pauli0 - 1Union Berlin
St. Pauli0 - 4B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli0 - 3Hoffenheim
St. Pauli1 - 2Leverkusen
St. Pauli2 - 1Augsburg
St. Pauli3 - 3Dortmund
St. Pauli0 - 2VfL Bochum
St. Pauli0 - 1Stuttgart
St. Pauli1 - 1Leverkusen
St. Pauli1 - 1B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli1 - 0Hoffenheim
Goals: Scored
17
Conceded
32
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
W
4
Draw
7
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ASt. Pauli0 - 2Heidenheim
HSt. Pauli1 - 1Köln
HSt. Pauli0 - 5Bayern
ASt. Pauli1 - 1Union Berlin
HSt. Pauli1 - 2Freiburg
ASt. Pauli0 - 2B. M'gladbach
HSt. Pauli0 - 0E.Frankfurt
ASt. Pauli1 - 0Hoffenheim
HSt. Pauli2 - 1W.Bremen
ASt. Pauli0 - 4Leverkusen
HSt. Pauli2 - 1Stuttgart
ASt. Pauli1 - 2Augsburg
HSt. Pauli1 - 1RB Leipzig
HSt. Pauli0 - 0Hamburg
ASt. Pauli2 - 3Dortmund
ASt. Pauli1 - 2Wolfsburg
ASt. Pauli0 - 0Mainz
HSt. Pauli2 - 1Heidenheim
ASt. Pauli1 - 1Köln
ASt. Pauli1 - 3Bayern
Mainz 10TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
37
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
19 / 20
Clean sheets
1 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
B. M'gladbach1 - 1Mainz
Hoffenheim1 - 2Mainz
W.Bremen0 - 2Mainz
Leverkusen1 - 1Mainz
Dortmund4 - 0Mainz
RB Leipzig1 - 2Mainz
Köln2 - 1Mainz
Union Berlin2 - 2Mainz
Bayern2 - 2Mainz
Freiburg4 - 0Mainz
E.Frankfurt1 - 0Mainz
Stuttgart2 - 1Mainz
Hamburg4 - 0Mainz
Augsburg1 - 4Mainz
Wolfsburg1 - 1Mainz
VfL Bochum1 - 4Mainz
Bayern3 - 0Mainz
Hoffenheim2 - 0Mainz
Dortmund3 - 1Mainz
B. M'gladbach1 - 3Mainz
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
7
Draw
7
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HMainz3 - 4Bayern
AMainz1 - 1B. M'gladbach
HMainz0 - 1Freiburg
AMainz2 - 1Hoffenheim
HMainz2 - 1E.Frankfurt
AMainz2 - 0W.Bremen
HMainz2 - 2Stuttgart
AMainz1 - 1Leverkusen
HMainz1 - 1Hamburg
AMainz0 - 4Dortmund
HMainz2 - 0Augsburg
AMainz2 - 1RB Leipzig
HMainz3 - 1Wolfsburg
AMainz1 - 2Köln
HMainz2 - 1Heidenheim
AMainz2 - 2Union Berlin
HMainz0 - 0St. Pauli
AMainz2 - 2Bayern
HMainz0 - 1B. M'gladbach
AMainz0 - 4Freiburg
Goal Statistics

Goals have been a problem for FC St. Pauli of late. It has been 8 Bundesliga matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.3 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Sunday afternoon against 1. FSV Mainz 05.

St. Pauli 18th Mainz 10th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 62% probability that St. Pauli will score no more than 1 goal
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 62% probability that Mainz will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-33
St. Pauli have scored 33% fewer goals at home than predicted
+3
Mainz’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
0.9
average goals scored
1.4
average goals scored
1.6
conceded
1.9
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Bundesliga - 2025/2025 season
St. Pauli
PG (predicted goals)
Mainz
1.3
1.3
Attack rating
STP
M05
22%
better
view stats
Games scored18
21
Failed to score13
10
Scored first10
14
Goals scored26
39
Avg. goals scored0.8
1.3
Avg. shots per game7
8
Avg. shots per goal9
7
Conversion rate for12
15
Avg. XG for1
1.5
KickOff rating
+22%
Defence rating
0%
better
STP
M05
view stats
Games conceded26
28
Clean sheets5
3
Conceded first18
16
Goals conceded53
49
Avg. goals conceded1.7
1.6
Avg. shots/game conceded9
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded5
6
Conversion rate against19%
15%
Avg. XG against1.6
1.6
KickOff rating
0%

St. Pauli v Mainz Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

St. Pauli Bundesliga squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
34536
N VasiljD SinaniD SinaniJ Fujita
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
N Vasilj GLK34
-
T Ando DEF151
3
-
H Wahl DEF3021
1
-
K Mets DEF231
3
-
A Pyrka MID311
3
-
J Irvine MID241
1
1
E Smith MID2722
4
1
L Ritzka MID21
1
-
D Sinani FWD3053
4
-
J Fujita FWD3213
6
-
A Hountondji FWD214
2
-
Subs
B Voll GLK
-
L. Oppie DEF231
-
A Dzwigala DEF1911
5
-
D Nemeth  DEF
-
M Rasmussen MID13
-
C Metcalfe MID252
2
-
A. Ceesay FWD203
4
-
T Hara FWD4
-
M Kaars FWD2931
2
-
Mainz Bundesliga squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
3412312
K SanoN AmiriD CostaD Kohr
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Batz GLK21
2
-
D Costa DEF3423
3
-
S Posch DEF16
4
-
K. Potulski DEF1511
3
-
S Widmer  MID2721
5
-
P Nebel MID3052
2
2
K Sano MID3412
1
-
N Amiri MID26122
6
-
P Mwene MID2912
4
-
S Becker FWD1433
2
-
P Tietz FWD1953
2
-
Subs
R Zentner GLK10
2
1
D Hoof DEF1821
4
-
A Caci DEF10
3
-
N Veratschnig DEF211
3
-
L Maloney MID21
1
-
S Kawasaki MID10
1
-
D Kohr MID292
10
2
N Weiper FWD24
1
-
A Sieb FWD222
1
-
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