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Milan v Lecce : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Home advantage is often beneficial in the Serie A, and Stefano Pioli’s Milan will have the luxury of it on Saturday afternoon. Luca Gotti’s Lecce are their visitors to the Giuseppe Meazza. We've got predictions, tips, and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers and head-to-head statistics across every market, so there's nowhere better to prepare Serie A clash.

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Milan's next match is v Roma at 20:00 on Thursday 18th April
Lecce's next match is v Sassuolo at 11:30 on Sunday 21st April
The last Italian Serie A meeting between Milan and Lecce was on Saturday 6th April 2024
Italian Serie A
April 6th 2024
Milan 3
0 Lecce
 
C. Pulisic 6'
O. Giroud 20'
R. Conceição Leão 57'
 
ACM
LEC
Shots On
8
7
Shots Off
5
4
Corners
5
1
Possession
65%
35%
Fouls
7
8
Yellow/red cards
1/0
1/1
 
MilanLecce
 
M. Maignan
D. Calabria
F. Tomori
M. Gabbia (S. Thorup Kjær 61')
T. Hernández (F. Terracciano 83')
T. Reijnders (M. Berisha 78')
Y. Adli
C. Pulisicfootball icon (Y. Musah 62')
R. Conceição Leãofootball icon
O. Giroudfootball icon (L. Jović 62')
S. Chukwueze
W. Falcone
M. Pongracic
A. Gallo
(V. Gendrey 70') L. Venuti
(S. Pierotti 85') P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
F. Baschirotto
(I. Bennacer 77') A. Blin
(P. Almqvist 46') L. Banda
Y. Ramadani
(R. Piccoli 46') J. Gonzàlez Cañellas
N. Krstović
Best Tip: Milan to win

We are predicting Milan will claim victory after 90 mins on Saturday in the win / draw / win market. The recent form statistics and historical head-to-head (H2H) records below all point in that direction and, as favourites with the bookmakers, the odds back that up too. It should be great moment for the home supporters when that final whistle blows at Giuseppe Meazza.

There are more encouraging signs coming from the bookies, with odds on a Milan win getting shorter and a Lecce win drifting. Simply, this means that the betting community is becoming more assured that Milan will get the win as the match draws closer.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Milan are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 65% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.40.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral Betfred 888Sport
Milan
65%
1/3
2%
4/11
6%
1/3
8%
8/25
7%
Draw
22%
17/4
14%
4/1
14%
4/1
11%
17/4
15%
Lecce
13%
15/2
6%
8/1
20%
17/2
27%
17/2
46%
Milan 1-0
15%
13/2
7%
13/2
7%
6/1
8%
6/1
Milan 2-0
14%
11/26/111/211/2
4%
Draw 1-1
10%
9/1
11%
17/2
12%
9/1
11%
17/2
19%
Milan 2-1
9%
15/215/2
6%
15/2
6%
15/2
6%
Draw 0-0
9%
14/1
25%
14/1
15%
14/1
15%
15/1
23%
Milan 3-0
8%
15/2
6%
8/1
5%
15/2
11%
15/2
11%
Lecce 1-0
6%
20/1
11%
22/1
21%
22/1
21%
20/1
40%
Milan 3-1
5%
10/1
8%
10/1
8%
10/1
8%
10/1
Milan 4-0
4%
14/114/1
21%
14/1
12%
13/1
13%
Lecce 2-1
3%
22/125/1
24%
25/1
24%
22/1
35%
Draw 2-2
3%
20/118/120/1
11%
19/1
18%
Milan 4-1
2%
18/1
10%
18/1
17%
18/1
10%
18/1
5%
Lecce 2-0
2%
40/160/1
33%
50/1
24%
40/1
32%
Milan 3-2
2%
22/1
21%
25/125/122/1
Milan 5-0
1%
28/128/1
29%
28/1
29%
25/1
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
8/13
6%
3/5
8%
4/6
3%
13/20
3%
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
5/4
8%
5/4
13%
11/10
5%
6/5
9%
Home 1st Goal
60%
1/41/3
5%
3/10
4%
-
Away 1st Goal
35%
10/314/5
6%
11/4
10%
-
No 1st Goal
6%
14/1
25%
14/1
15%
12/1
8%
-
BTTS - Yes
40%
19/20
3%
10/11Evs19/20
3%
BTTS - No
60%
4/5
3%
5/6
2%
8/1110/13
2%
BTTS - Home Win
22%
2/1
8%
19/10
9%
2/1
6%
-
BTTS - Draw
14%
11/25/1
9%
11/2
8%
24/5
BTTS - Away Win
5%
14/114/1
15%
14/1
25%
-
Home/draw
87%
1/121/14
2%
1/14
3%
1/16
1%
Away/draw
35%
9/4
8%
11/5
16%
11/5
16%
47/20
26%
Home/away
78%
1/6
1%
2/11
3%
1/6
3%
1/6
1%
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
1/5
2%
2/11
3%
1/5
4%
2/11
1%
Under 1.5 Goals
30%
7/2
4%
7/2
15%
10/3
15%
18/5
10%
Over 3.5 Goals
23%
13/8
5%
29/20
13%
13/8
12%
33/20
9%
Under 3.5 Goals
77%
1/2
4%
1/2
7%
4/9
6%
12/25
8%
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
7/2
10%
17/5
16%
7/2
18%
4/1
11%
Under 4.5 Goals
90%
1/5
3%
2/11
4%
1/6
4%
1/6
4%
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
8/1
18%
8/1
18%
8/1
18%
9/1
23%
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/14
2%
1/14
2%
1/20
2%
1/20
3%
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
1/33
1%
1/33
2%
-1/100
1%
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
14/1
25%
14/1
25%
-14/1
7%
Home DNB
80%
1/10
1%
1/9
3%
1/12
4%
1/10
3%
Away DNB
28%
6/1
8%
5/1
20%
6/1
27%
6/1
35%
Milan win to nil
43%
6/55/4
4%
21/20
9%
-
Lecce win to nil
8%
14/1
15%
16/1
31%
14/1
15%
-
Milan / Milan
43%
20/21
5%
21/20
9%
9/10
10%
10/11
6%
Milan / Lecce
1%
50/1
24%
80/1
14%
66/180/1
59%
Milan / Draw
4%
16/120/1
11%
18/1
12%
18/1
12%
Draw / Milan
21%
3/129/103/1
5%
10/3
1%
Draw / Lecce
5%
18/1
12%
16/1
13%
18/1
27%
18/1
46%
Draw / Draw
12%
13/2
7%
13/2
15%
13/2
15%
13/2
11%
Lecce / Milan
4%
18/1
10%
22/120/122/1
15%
Lecce / Lecce
6%
14/116/1
13%
14/1
25%
15/1
60%
Lecce / Draw
4%
18/120/118/1
12%
20/1
31%
bet365
Win / draw / win Serie A table

Milan have played 30 matches so far this season and lay in 2nd place in the Serie A league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 29 games against teams below in the table, having won 20, drawn 5 and lost 4 matches. They have kept 11 clean sheets and have failed to score in 2 fixtures. Milan have outscored their opponents by 57 goals to 26 goals.

Home League Performance

Milan have played 14 games at home winning 10, drawing 2 and losing 2 games. They have scored 23 goals, kept 7 clean sheets and conceded 8 goals at home.

Lecce are in 13th position in the Serie A on 29 points having played 30 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

8 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 23 goals and kept 1 clean sheet. They have scored 11 goals in total and failed to score in 6 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

20 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 12 games, drawn 5 and won 3. Lecce have conceded 36 goals, scored 14, failed to score in 11 fixtures and have kept 2 clean sheets.

Milan
Won
Draw
Lost
Scores
Lecce
HOME AWAY TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY
Apr 22
l
 
5-1A
 Inter3226516083 
l
 
0-4A
l
 
2-0A
-
-
 Milan Home3221652669 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
3-0A
l
 
0-1A
Apr 28
 Juventus3218952163 
l
 
0-3A
l
 
1-0A
d
 
2-2A
w
 
0-2F
 Bologna32161152059 
d
 
1-1A
l
 
4-0A
w
 
3-1F
w
 
1-2F
 Roma3116782155 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-1F
d
 
1-1F
l
 
3-2A
 Atalanta31156102151 
May 19
l
 
1-0A
w
 
1-0F
d
 
2-2F
 Napoli32131091049 
l
 
0-4A
May 26
w
 
2-0F
w
 
0-1F
 Lazio3215413649 
w
 
2-1A
l
 
1-0A
w
 
4-1F
May 19
 Torino3211129245 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-2F
 Fiorentina3112811744 
w
 
3-2F
d
 
2-2A
w
 
3-0F
l
 
4-2A
 Monza32111011-743 
Apr 28
d
 
1-1F
May 5
w
 
0-1F
 Genoa3291211-439 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
w
 
3-0F
d
 
2-2F
 Lecce Away3271114-2132 
-
-
May 12
w
 
1-3A
 Cagliari3271015-2031 
d
 
1-1F
May 5
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-3F
 Verona3261016-1428 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
2-2F
l
 
0-1A
w
 
2-3F
 Udinese3141611-1728 
May 12
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-3F
 Empoli327718-2328 
w
 
1-0F
d
 
1-1F
w
 
3-1F
w
 
2-3F
 Frosinone326917-2327 
w
 
2-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-0F
d
 
3-3A
 Sassuolo326818-2326 
d
 
1-1A
Apr 21
May 26
d
 
2-2F
 Salernitana322921-4215 
w
 
2-0F
w
 
0-1F
Win / draw / win form
Milan 2ND
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
36
Conceded
11
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
14
D
4
L
2
Goals: Scored
39
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
13
D
4
L
3
Lecce 13TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
15
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
2
Draw
7
Lost
11
Goals: Scored
16
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
3
Draw
7
Lost
10
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Milan have not lost to Lecce in 5 consecutive league meetings
League games at Milan since 2019
Milan
Lecce
Goals: Scored
4
2
Games: Scored
2 / 2
1 / 2
Clean sheets
1 / 2
0 / 2
ACM
1
D
1
All league games since 2019
Milan
Lecce
Goals: Scored
12
7
Games: Scored
5 / 5
4 / 5
Clean sheets
1 / 5
0 / 5
ACM
2
D
3
Goal Statistics

Milan have been reliable in attack of late, finding the net in 19 consecutive Serie A matches. Their PG of 1.8 against Lecce on Saturday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

A truly awful PG of just 0.7 should cause concerns for Lecce fans, as should a 7 Serie A games run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

Milan 2nd Lecce 13th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.8
goals
0.7
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
16%
1
30%
2
27%
3
16%
4+
11%
There is a 84% probability that Milan will score 1 or more goals
0
52%
1
34%
2
11%
3
4+
There is a 52% probability that Lecce will fail to score
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+5
Milan’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-23
Lecce have scored 23% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.8
average goals scored
0.8
average goals scored
0.6
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Statistics Serie A - 2023/2024 Season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/264596/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Milan
PG (predicted goals)
Lecce
1.8
0.7
Attack rating
50%
better
ACM
LEC
view stats
Games scored30
19
Failed to score2
13
Scored first24
12
Goals scored63
27
Avg. goals scored2
0.8
Avg. shots per game11
10
Avg. shots per goal5
12
Conversion rate18%
8%
KickOff rating
+50%
Defence rating
29%
better
ACM
LEC
view stats
Games conceded20
27
Clean sheets12
5
Conceded first8
19
Goals conceded37
48
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.5
Avg. shots/game conceded9
11
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
7
Conversion rate13%
14%
KickOff rating
+29%

Milan v Lecce Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Milan Serie A squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
2813810
M Maignan O GiroudR LeãoT Hernández
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Maignan  GLK281
1
1
D Calabria DEF273
4
-
M Gabbia DEF1311
3
-
F Tomori DEF213
5
-
T Hernández DEF2853
10
-
Y Adli MID2012
3
-
T Reijnders MID3023
7
-
S Chukwueze MID2012
1
-
C Pulisic MID30106
2
-
R Leão MID2878
5
-
O Giroud FWD29138
1
1
Subs
M Sportiello GLK3
-
L Nava GLK
-
A Florenzi  DEF262
5
-
J. Simic DEF41
-
D. Bartesaghi DEF5
-
S Kjaer DEF191
1
-
F Terracciano MID2
1
-
Y Musah MID262
4
-
K. Zeroli MID2
-
I Bennacer MID131
1
-
L Jović  FWD2161
2
1
N Okafor FWD2361
1
-
Lecce Serie A squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
325412
W FalconeN KrstovicL BandaY Ramadani
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
W Falcone GLK321
-
L Venuti DEF11
1
-
F Baschirotto DEF311
2
1
M Pongracic  DEF30
9
-
A Gallo DEF292
2
-
Y Ramadani MID301
12
-
A Blin MID252
3
-
J González MID2411
6
-
P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu FWD261
5
-
N Krstovic FWD295
3
1
L Banda FWD2124
5
1
Subs
F Brancolini GLK
-
J Samooja GLK
-
V Gendrey DEF3113
5
-
A Touba DEF6
1
-
H Rafia MID221
4
-
R Oudin MID2531
2
-
M Berisha MID1
-
P Almqvist FWD262
5
-
R Piccoli FWD2
-
N Sansone FWD2222
3
-
S Pierotti FWD51
-