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FC Porto v Sporting Lisbon : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mon 9th Feb, 20:45 BST, Estádio do Dragão, Porto

Home advantage is often beneficial in the Liga NOS, and Francesco Farioli’s FC Porto will have the blessing of it on Monday night. Rui Manuel Gomes Borges’s Sporting Lisbon are their visitors to the Estádio do Dragão. Form, head to head (H2H) statistics, predictions and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are all laid out below. We're here to give you everything you need to place an intelligent bet. Here we've gone for under 3.5 goals, but why not take a look and see if there's another bet you prefer?


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Liga NOS Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We think it's unlikely that this game will have more than 3 goals at most, and the odds and statistics align with our predictive algorithm on this one. Porto and S. Lisbon have rarely been involved in goal-fests of late, whether that be in Liga NOS individually or when going head-to-head. So, without a strong favourite draw or double chance market, we're going for under 3.5 goals. The UK's top bookies have that available at a best price of 1.22.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Porto are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 41% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.30.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Porto
41%
2.30
4%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.10
3%
3.20
2%
S. Lisbon
32%
3.20
6%
3.10
3%
Draw 1-1
13%
6.005.75
Porto 1-0
11%
7.50
7%
6.50
7%
S. Lisbon 1-0
9%
9.508.00
Porto 2-1
9%
9.509.00
6%
Draw 0-0
8%
8.00
6%
7.50
6%
S. Lisbon 2-1
7%
12.0010.00
5%
Porto 2-0
7%
11.00
10%
9.50
5%
S. Lisbon 2-0
5%
15.00
12%
12.00
Draw 2-2
5%
15.0013.00
8%
Porto 3-1
4%
21.0015.00
12%
Porto 3-0
3%
23.00
10%
17.00
S. Lisbon 3-1
3%
26.00
10%
21.00
11%
Porto 3-2
2%
29.00
15%
23.00
S. Lisbon 3-0
2%
34.0026.00
13%
S. Lisbon 3-2
2%
41.00
17%
26.00
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
2.10
5%
2.15
5%
Under 2.5 Goals
52%
1.70
3%
1.65
3%
Home 1st Goal
50%
1.83
4%
1.85
3%
Away 1st Goal
46%
2.20
2%
2.25
2%
No 1st Goal
5%
8.00
6%
7.50
6%
BTTS - Yes
52%
1.80
6%
1.85
1%
BTTS - No
48%
1.95
2%
1.85
3%
BTTS - Home Win
19%
5.004.80
BTTS - Draw
19%
4.334.20
BTTS - Away Win
15%
7.00
13%
6.00
4%
Home/draw
68%
1.36
2%
1.35
1%
Away/draw
59%
1.57
3%
1.57
Home/away
74%
1.361.35
2%
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
1.33
2%
1.36
1%
Under 1.5 Goals
27%
3.25
8%
2.90
3%
Over 3.5 Goals
26%
3.753.80
6%
Under 3.5 Goals
74%
1.251.22
2%
Over 4.5 Goals
12%
8.00
11%
7.50
7%
Under 4.5 Goals
88%
1.08
1%
1.07
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
19.0015.00
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1.021.01
1%
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1.081.07
1%
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
8.00
6%
8.00
Home DNB
60%
1.62
6%
1.62
3%
Away DNB
51%
2.20
7%
2.15
2%
Porto win to nil
23%
3.75
7%
-
S. Lisbon win to nil
17%
5.50-
Porto / Porto
22%
3.75
7%
3.60
3%
Porto / S. Lisbon
3%
29.00
15%
23.00
Porto / Draw
6%
13.0012.00
9%
Draw / Porto
15%
5.505.50
Draw / S. Lisbon
12%
7.00
7%
6.50
Draw / Draw
17%
4.754.40
4%
S. Lisbon / Porto
3%
29.0023.00
10%
S. Lisbon / S. Lisbon
16%
5.00
9%
4.80
4%
S. Lisbon / Draw
6%
15.0012.00
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Win / draw / win Liga NOS table

Porto have played 20 matches so far this season and lay in 1st place in the Liga NOS league table. Porto are unbeaten at home after 9 games and have kept 7 clean sheets in those matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 20 games against teams below in the table, having won 18, drawn 1 and lost 1 match. They have kept 15 clean sheets and have failed to score in 1 fixture. They have been outscored by their opponents by 54 goals to 41 goals.

Home League Performance

Porto have played 9 games at home winning 8, drawing 1 and losing 0 games. They have scored 19 goals, kept 7 clean sheets and conceded 2 goals at home.

S. Lisbon are in 2nd position in the Liga NOS on 51 points having played 20 matches so far this season. S. Lisbon have a shocking record against teams above them in the league, they have lost all 1 matches and failed to score in 0 of those games. S. Lisbon are unbeaten away after 10 games and have kept 3 clean sheets in those matches.

Away League Performance

zero of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 7 goals and kept 3 clean sheets. They have scored 22 goals in total and found the back of the net in every game.

Performance against teams above them in the league

1 game have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost all of those games, drawn 0 and won zero. S. Lisbon have conceded 2 goals, scored 1, scored in every game and have kept no clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Porto
S. Lisbon
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Porto2018113555 
-
-
l
 
1-2A
Feb 9
2
S. Lisbon2016314351 
Feb 9
w
 
1-2F
-
-
3
Benfica2114703249 
d
 
0-00-0
Mar 8
Apr 19
d
 
1-1F
4
Braga2111642639 
w
 
2-1F
Mar 22
d
 
1-1F
Mar 8
5
Gil Vicente2110741437 
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-2F
May 17
d
 
1-1F
6
Estoril21867830 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 12
Feb 27
w
 
0-1F
7
Moreirense21939-230 
Mar 15
w
 
1-2A
w
 
3-0F
Feb 21
8
Famalicao20857529 
Apr 4
w
 
0-1F
Feb 15
w
 
1-2A
9
V. Guimaraes21849-728 
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-1F
May 3
w
 
1-4F
10
Alverca217311-1524 
May 3
w
 
0-3F
w
 
2-0F
Mar 22
11
Estrela Amadora21588-1223 
w
 
3-1F
Apr 26
w
 
4-0F
Apr 12
12
Arouca216510-2023 
Feb 27
w
 
0-4F
w
 
6-0F
w
 
1-2F
13
Nacional215610-321 
w
 
1-0F
Feb 15
w
 
2-1F
w
 
1-4A
14
Rio Ave21489-1920 
Feb 22
w
 
0-3F
w
 
4-0F
May 10
15
Casa Pia214710-1719 
w
 
4-0F
l
 
2-1A
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-2F
16
Santa Clara214512-1017 
May 17
w
 
0-1F
Apr 4
w
 
1-2A
17
Tondela213513-2114 
Apr 19
w
 
0-2F
Mar 15
w
 
0-3F
18
AVS200515-375 
w
 
2-0F
May 10
w
 
6-0F
Apr 26
Win / draw / win form
5
Porto have won 5 consecutive home league games
3
S. Lisbon have won 3 consecutive league games
12
Porto have not lost in 12 consecutive home league games
20
S. Lisbon have not lost in 20 consecutive away league games
Porto
20 league games
Home
5
Overall
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
11
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
8 / 20
Clean sheets
12 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
15
D
4
L
1
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Porto3 - 0Gil Vicente
Porto2 - 0AVS
Porto3 - 1Estrela Amadora
Porto1 - 0Estoril
Porto2 - 1Braga
Porto0 - 0Benfica
Porto1 - 0Nacional
Porto4 - 0Casa Pia
Porto3 - 0V. Guimaraes
Porto3 - 0Nacional
Porto3 - 1Moreirense
Porto2 - 1Famalicao
Porto1 - 4Benfica
Porto2 - 0AVS
Porto1 - 1V. Guimaraes
Porto1 - 1S. Lisbon
Porto1 - 1Santa Clara
Porto4 - 0Boavista
Porto2 - 0Estrela Amadora
Porto2 - 0Casa Pia
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
6
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
5 / 20
Clean sheets
15 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
18
D
1
L
1
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
APorto1 - 2Casa Pia
HPorto3 - 0Gil Vicente
APorto1 - 0V. Guimaraes
APorto1 - 0Santa Clara
HPorto2 - 0AVS
APorto3 - 0Alverca
HPorto3 - 1Estrela Amadora
APorto2 - 0Tondela
HPorto1 - 0Estoril
APorto1 - 0Famalicao
HPorto2 - 1Braga
APorto2 - 1Moreirense
HPorto0 - 0Benfica
APorto4 - 0Arouca
APorto3 - 0Rio Ave
HPorto1 - 0Nacional
APorto2 - 1S. Lisbon
HPorto4 - 0Casa Pia
APorto2 - 0Gil Vicente
HPorto3 - 0V. Guimaraes
S. Lisbon
20 league games
Away
20
Overall
3
Goals: Scored
45
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
13
Draw
7
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Arouca1 - 2S. Lisbon
Gil Vicente1 - 1S. Lisbon
V. Guimaraes1 - 4S. Lisbon
Benfica1 - 1S. Lisbon
Santa Clara1 - 2S. Lisbon
Tondela0 - 3S. Lisbon
Estoril0 - 1S. Lisbon
Famalicao1 - 2S. Lisbon
Nacional1 - 4S. Lisbon
Casa Pia0 - 2S. Lisbon
Benfica1 - 1S. Lisbon
Boavista0 - 5S. Lisbon
Santa Clara0 - 1S. Lisbon
Estrela Amadora0 - 3S. Lisbon
Casa Pia1 - 3S. Lisbon
AVS2 - 2S. Lisbon
Porto1 - 1S. Lisbon
Rio Ave0 - 3S. Lisbon
V. Guimaraes4 - 4S. Lisbon
Gil Vicente0 - 0S. Lisbon
Goals: Scored
54
Conceded
11
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
16
D
3
L
1
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HS. Lisbon2 - 1Nacional
AS. Lisbon2 - 1Arouca
HS. Lisbon3 - 0Casa Pia
AS. Lisbon1 - 1Gil Vicente
HS. Lisbon4 - 0Rio Ave
AS. Lisbon4 - 1V. Guimaraes
HS. Lisbon6 - 0AVS
AS. Lisbon1 - 1Benfica
HS. Lisbon4 - 0Estrela Amadora
AS. Lisbon2 - 1Santa Clara
HS. Lisbon2 - 0Alverca
AS. Lisbon3 - 0Tondela
HS. Lisbon1 - 1Braga
AS. Lisbon1 - 0Estoril
HS. Lisbon3 - 0Moreirense
AS. Lisbon2 - 1Famalicao
HS. Lisbon1 - 2Porto
AS. Lisbon4 - 1Nacional
HS. Lisbon6 - 0Arouca
AS. Lisbon2 - 0Casa Pia
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
9
Porto have not lost to S. Lisbon in 9 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Porto since 2016
Porto
S. Lisbon
Goals: Scored
17
11
Games: Scored
9 / 10
7 / 10
Clean sheets
3 / 10
1 / 10
PTO
5
D
4
SCL
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Porto
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Porto3 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Porto2 - 0
Porto2 - 1
Porto2 - 1
Porto2 - 1
1 - 3S. Lisbon
League games at S. Lisbon since 2016
S. Lisbon
Porto
Goals: Scored
14
10
Games: Scored
9 / 11
6 / 11
Clean sheets
5 / 11
2 / 11
PTO
3
D
4
SCL
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT S. Lisbon
1 - 2Porto
S. Lisbon2 - 0
S. Lisbon2 - 0
1 - 2Porto
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
1 - 2Porto
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
S. Lisbon2 - 1
S. Lisbon2 - 0
Goal Statistics

Sporting Lisbon's defensive record is to be admired, R. Gomes Borges's men having conceded 1 or less in 16 consecutive Liga NOS matches. An average PG rating of 1.4 for FC Porto makes sense in this context.

Porto S. Lisbon
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.4
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 60% probability that Porto will score no more than 1 goal
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 66% probability that S. Lisbon will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+2
Porto’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+12
S. Lisbon have scored 12% more goals when away than predicted
2.1
average goals scored
2.3
average goals scored
0.6
conceded
0.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga NOS - 2025/2025 season
Porto
PG (predicted goals)
S. Lisbon
1.4
1.2
Attack rating
PTO
SCL
21%
better
view stats
Games scored19
20
Failed to score1
0
Scored first17
16
Goals scored41
54
Avg. goals scored2.1
2.7
Avg. shots per game11
14
Avg. shots per goal5
5
Conversion rate for19
19
Avg. XG for1.9
2.2
KickOff rating
+21%
Defence rating
39%
better
PTO
SCL
view stats
Games conceded5
10
Clean sheets15
10
Conceded first2
4
Goals conceded6
11
Avg. goals conceded0.3
0.6
Avg. shots/game conceded6
6
Avg. shots/goal conceded21
11
Conversion rate against5%
9%
Avg. XG against0.6
0.7
KickOff rating
+39%

Porto v S. Lisbon Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Porto Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
201367
D CostaS. Omorodion AghehowaA BaioJ Bednarek
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Costa GLK20
1
-
V. Froholdt MID2023
1
-
J Bednarek DEF19
7
-
B Sainz FWD1952
5
-
S. Omorodion Aghehowa FWD19131
2
-
G Veiga MID1814
3
-
A Varela MID182
4
-
A Baio DEF176
3
-
W. Gomes Carvalho Santos FWD175
3
1
Pepê FWD1724
1
-
F Moura DEF1622
3
-
R. Mora Carvalho MID1611
-
J Kiwior DEF151
1
-
P Rosario MID1521
5
-
D Gül FWD152
1
-
M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes DEF131
2
1
Zaidu  DEF811
-
S Eustaquio MID8
-
N Pérez DEF51
-
D. Prpić DEF5
-
L Jong FWD51
1
-
C Ramos GLK1
-
Y Karamoh FWD1
-
S. Lisbon Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
201876
L SuárezL SuárezF TrincãoM Hjulmand
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
F Trincão MID2047
-
L Suárez FWD20184
4
-
G Inácio DEF193
3
1
R Silva GLK18
1
-
A Santos FWD182
-
M Hjulmand MID1722
6
-
H Morita MID171
1
-
I Fresneda DEF161
5
-
M Vilches DEF1642
5
1
G Catamo  MID1543
1
-
P Gonçalves FWD15105
4
-
G Kochorashvili MID141
-
J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões MID131
2
-
G. Quenda FWD1314
-
G Vagiannidis DEF123
2
-
F Ioannidis FWD123
-
R Mangas DEF1021
3
-
Z Debast DEF10
2
-
M Reis DEF92
2
E Quaresma DEF711
1
-
O Diomande DEF7
1
-
J Virgínia GLK2
-
D Bragança  MID11
-