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Villarreal v Ajax : Champions League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 20th Jan, 20:00 BST, Estadio de la Cerámica, Castellón

Fred Grim will be hoping for a precious away win in the Champions League on Tuesday night, as he takes his Ajax side to the Estadio de la Cerámica to visit Villarreal and Marcelino García Toral. Analysing both clubs' last 20 Champions League matches, as well as trends within the competition and the betting market, to generate our percentage predictions. All the statistics, including head to heads (H2H), are shown below, alongside odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Champions League Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Villarreal to win

As the Villarreal players ready themselves for this clash, the bookmakers are predicting a victory for them. The odds and our pre-match stats below point in that direction too, as does the historical head-to-head (H2H) information we factor into our predictive algorithms. The Estadio de la Cerámica has rarely been a successful away day for Ajax in the past, and we we'd back more of the same on Tuesday night. A win / draw / win home win is the way to go.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Villarreal are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 61% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.57.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Villarreal 61%	11/20 2%	4/7
Draw 20%	7/2	17/5
Ajax 19%	4/1 5%	4/1
Villarreal 2-1 10%	15/2	7/1
Draw 1-1 9%	8/1	15/2
Villarreal 2-0 8%	17/2 6%	8/1
Villarreal 1-0 7%	9/1 5%	8/1
Villarreal 3-1 7%	10/1	9/1
Villarreal 3-0 6%	12/1 8%	11/1
Draw 2-2 6%	14/1 13%	11/1
Ajax 2-1 5%	14/1	14/1
Villarreal 3-2 4%	18/1 10%	14/1
Villarreal 4-1 4%	18/1	16/1
Ajax 1-0 4%	18/1 12%	16/1
Villarreal 4-0 3%	20/1 10%	16/1
Draw 0-0 3%	20/1 12%	14/1
Villarreal 4-2 2%	28/1	25/1
Ajax 2-0 2%	28/1	22/1
Over 2.5 Goals 66%	4/9 4%	10/21
Under 2.5 Goals 34%	7/4 11%	6/4
Home 1st Goal 55%	1/2	4/9
Away 1st Goal 43%	6/4 4%	9/5
No 1st Goal 2%	20/1 12%	14/1
BTTS - Yes 62%	4/7 3%	4/7
BTTS - No 38%	5/4 2%	13/10
BTTS - Home Win 34%	7/4	17/10
BTTS - Draw 16%	4/1	19/5
BTTS - Away Win 12%	13/2 6%	6/1
Home/draw 81%	1/6 1%	1/6
Away/draw 39%	11/8	11/8
Home/away 80%	2/11	1/5
Over 1.5 Goals 85%	1/7	1/7
Under 1.5 Goals 15%	9/2	4/1
Over 3.5 Goals 44%	6/5 3%	23/20
Under 3.5 Goals 56%	4/6 3%	13/20
Over 4.5 Goals 26%	11/4 8%	13/5
Under 4.5 Goals 74%	2/7 2%	1/4
Over 5.5 Goals 13%	11/2 13%	11/2
Under 5.5 Goals 87%	1/9 2%	1/10
Over 0.5 Goals 97%	1/66 1%	1/80
Under 0.5 Goals 3%	18/1 12%	14/1
Home DNB 75%	1/4	2/9
Away DNB 33%	11/4	11/4
Villarreal win to nil 27%	9/4 8%	-
Ajax win to nil 8%	10/1	-
Villarreal / Villarreal 35%	13/10 1%	5/4
Villarreal / Ajax 3%	33/1	28/1
Villarreal / Draw 6%	14/1	11/1
Draw / Villarreal 17%	15/4	18/5
Draw / Ajax 7%	10/1	10/1
Draw / Draw 11%	13/2	6/1
Ajax / Villarreal 5%	16/1	16/1
Ajax / Ajax 10%	15/2 6%	6/1
Ajax / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1

Win / draw / win Champions League table

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Villarreal Ajax
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	16	18	-	-	-	-
2	Bayern	6	5	0	1	11	15	-	-	-	-
3	PSG	6	4	1	1	11	13	-	-	-	-
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	6	13	l 0-2A	-	-	-
5	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	2	13	-	-	-	-
6	Inter	6	4	0	2	8	12	-	-	l 0-2A	-
7	Real Madrid	6	4	0	2	6	12	-	-	-	-
8	A.Madrid	6	4	0	2	3	12	-	-	-	-
9	Liverpool	6	4	0	2	3	12	-	-	-	-
10	Dortmund	6	3	2	1	6	11	-	l 4-0A	-	-
11	Spurs	6	3	2	1	6	11	-	l 1-0A	-	-
12	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	7	10	-	-	-	-
13	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	5	10	-	-	-	l 5-1A
14	S. Lisbon	6	3	1	2	4	10	-	-	-	-
15	Barcelona	6	3	1	2	3	10	-	-	-	-
16	Marseille	6	3	0	3	3	9	-	-	-	l 4-0A
17	Juventus	6	2	3	1	2	9	d 2-2F	-	-	-
18	Galatasaray	6	3	0	3	0	9	-	-	l 0-3A	-
19	Monaco	6	2	3	1	-1	9	-	-	-	-
20	Leverkusen	6	2	3	1	-2	9	-	Jan 28	-	-
21	PSV	6	2	2	2	4	8	-	-	-	-
22	Qarabag	6	2	1	3	-3	7	-	-	-	w 2-4A
23	Napoli	6	2	1	3	-5	7	-	-	-	-
24	Kobenhavn	6	2	1	3	-6	7	l 2-3A	-	-	-
25	Benfica	6	2	0	4	-2	6	-	-	l 0-2A	-
26	Paphos	6	1	3	2	-5	6	-	l 1-0A	-	-
27	Union SG	6	2	0	4	-8	6	-	-	-	-
28	A.Bilbao	6	1	2	3	-5	5	-	-	-	-
29	Olympiakos	6	1	2	3	-7	5	-	-	Jan 28	-
30	E.Frankfurt	6	1	1	4	-8	4	-	-	-	-
31	Brugge	6	1	1	4	-8	4	-	-	-	-
32	Bodø	6	0	3	3	-4	3	-	-	-	-
33	Slavia	6	0	3	3	-9	3	-	-	-	-
34	Ajax	6	1	0	5	-13	3	Jan 20	-	-	-
35	Villarreal	6	0	1	5	-9	1	-	-	-	Jan 20
36	Kairat Almaty	6	0	1	5	-11	1	-	-	-	-

	Next round
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Win / draw / win form

Villarreal have lost 4 consecutive european games

Villarreal have not won in 6 consecutive european games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Villarreal	2 - 3	Kobenhavn
Villarreal	0 - 2	Man City
Villarreal	2 - 2	Juventus
Villarreal	3 - 1	Marseille
Villarreal	0 - 0	M. Haifa
Villarreal	3 - 2	Panathinaikos
Villarreal	1 - 0	Rennes
Villarreal	0 - 1	Anderlecht
Villarreal	2 - 2	Beer Sheva
Villarreal	5 - 0	Austria Wien
Villarreal	4 - 3	Lech Poznan
Villarreal	4 - 2	Hajduk Split
Villarreal	2 - 3	Liverpool
Villarreal	1 - 0	Bayern
Villarreal	1 - 1	Juventus
Villarreal	0 - 2	Man Utd
Villarreal	2 - 0	Young Boys
Villarreal	2 - 2	Atalanta
Villarreal	1 - 1	Man Utd
Villarreal	2 - 1	Arsenal

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Villarreal	2 - 3	Kobenhavn
A	Villarreal	0 - 4	Dortmund
A	Villarreal	0 - 1	Paphos
H	Villarreal	0 - 2	Man City
H	Villarreal	2 - 2	Juventus
A	Villarreal	0 - 1	Spurs
H	Villarreal	3 - 1	Marseille
A	Villarreal	0 - 4	Marseille
A	Villarreal	3 - 2	Rennes
H	Villarreal	0 - 0	M. Haifa
H	Villarreal	3 - 2	Panathinaikos
A	Villarreal	2 - 1	M. Haifa
H	Villarreal	1 - 0	Rennes
A	Villarreal	0 - 2	Panathinaikos
H	Villarreal	0 - 1	Anderlecht
A	Villarreal	1 - 1	Anderlecht
A	Villarreal	0 - 3	Lech Poznan
H	Villarreal	2 - 2	Beer Sheva
A	Villarreal	1 - 0	Austria Wien
H	Villarreal	5 - 0	Austria Wien

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Qarabag	2 - 4	Ajax
Chelsea	5 - 1	Ajax
Marseille	4 - 0	Ajax
E.Frankfurt	4 - 1	Ajax
Union SG	0 - 2	Ajax
Rigas Futbola Skola	1 - 0	Ajax
R.Sociedad	2 - 0	Ajax
Qarabag	0 - 3	Ajax
Slavia	1 - 1	Ajax
Jagiellonia	1 - 4	Ajax
Panathinaikos	0 - 1	Ajax
Vojvodina	1 - 3	Ajax
A Villa	4 - 0	Ajax
Bodø	1 - 1	Ajax
Marseille	4 - 3	Ajax
Brighton	2 - 0	Ajax
AEK	1 - 1	Ajax
Ludogorets	1 - 4	Ajax
Union Berlin	3 - 1	Ajax
Rangers	1 - 3	Ajax

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Ajax	4 - 2	Qarabag
H	Ajax	0 - 2	Benfica
H	Ajax	0 - 3	Galatasaray
A	Ajax	1 - 5	Chelsea
A	Ajax	0 - 4	Marseille
H	Ajax	0 - 2	Inter
A	Ajax	1 - 4	E.Frankfurt
H	Ajax	1 - 2	E.Frankfurt
H	Ajax	0 - 2	Union SG
A	Ajax	2 - 0	Union SG
H	Ajax	2 - 1	Galatasaray
A	Ajax	0 - 1	Rigas Futbola Skola
H	Ajax	1 - 3	Lazio
A	Ajax	0 - 2	R.Sociedad
H	Ajax	5 - 0	M. Tel-Aviv
A	Ajax	3 - 0	Qarabag
A	Ajax	1 - 1	Slavia
H	Ajax	4 - 0	Besiktas
H	Ajax	3 - 0	Jagiellonia
A	Ajax	4 - 1	Jagiellonia

Goal Statistics

Ajax have been dreadful at the back of late, conceding 2 or more goals in 9 consecutive Champions League outings. This run could continue, with Villarreal's PG an impressive 2.2.

	Villarreal 35th	Ajax 34th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	2.2 goals	1.2 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 11% 1 24% 2 27% 3 20% 4+ 19% There is a 65% probability that Villarreal will score 2 or more goals in this match	0 30% 1 36% 2 22% 3 9% 4+ There is a 66% probability that Ajax will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+4 Villarreal’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+19 Ajax have scored 19% more goals when away than predicted
	1.9 average goals scored	1.7 average goals scored
	1.4 conceded	1.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Champions League - 2025/2025 season

11%

better

VIL

AJA

view stats

Games scored	15		15
Failed to score	5		5
Scored first	13		6
Goals scored	35		31
Avg. goals scored	1.8		1.6
Avg. shots per game	11		9
Avg. shots per goal	6		6
Conversion rate for	16		17
Avg. XG for	1.9		1.3
KickOff rating		+11%

34%

better

VIL

AJA

view stats

Games conceded	13		18
Clean sheets	7		2
Conceded first	7		14
Goals conceded	26		38
Avg. goals conceded	1.3		1.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		11
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		6
Conversion rate against	14%		18%
Avg. XG against	1.5		1.8
KickOff rating		+34%

The line-ups for the Champions League match between Villarreal v Ajax will show here when available.

Villarreal Champions League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
6	1	2	3
R Veiga	R Veiga	I Akhomach	P Gueye

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
R Veiga DEF	6	1		2 -
S Cardona DEF	6			-
S Comesaña MID	6	1		1 -
P Gueye MID	6			3 -
A Moleiro FWD	6			1 -
N Pépé FWD	6		1	-
L Júnior GLK	5			-
S Mouriño DEF	5			2 -
A Pedraza DEF	5		1	2 -
D Parejo MID	5			-
G Mikautadze FWD	5	1		-
T Oluwaseyi FWD	5	1		-
T Buchanan FWD	5			-
J Foyth DEF	4			1
A Pérez FWD	4			-
I Akhomach FWD	4		2	2 -
R Marín DEF	3			-
T Partey MID	3			-
P. Navarro Badenes DEF	2			-
M Solomon FWD	2			-
A Tenas GLK	1			-
G Moreno FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
1	4	2	3
R Veiga	P Gueye	I Akhomach	N Pépé

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Veiga DEF	1	1
S Comesaña MID	1	3		2
G Mikautadze FWD	1	1
T Oluwaseyi FWD	1	2
S Cardona DEF				2
P Gueye MID		4		1
A Moleiro FWD		1		2
N Pépé FWD		2	1	3
A Pedraza DEF		1	1
T Buchanan FWD		1
A Pérez FWD		1
I Akhomach FWD			2	2
R Marín DEF		2		1
M Solomon FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
348	24	42
R Veiga	S Mouriño	S Mouriño

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
R Veiga DEF	348	6	16
P Gueye MID	249	13	37
S Mouriño DEF	220	24	42
J Foyth DEF	203	7	15
S Comesaña MID	166	4	20
N Pépé FWD	150	9	26
R Marín DEF	135	4	11
S Cardona DEF	113	7	14
A Pedraza DEF	100	6	11
D Parejo MID	96	2	4
L Júnior GLK	87		4
T Partey MID	71	4	6
P. Navarro Badenes DEF	66	4	7
A Moleiro FWD	57		6
T Buchanan FWD	57	3	19
G Mikautadze FWD	50	3	10
A Pérez FWD	41	2	15
A Tenas GLK	38
I Akhomach FWD	31		3
T Oluwaseyi FWD	29	1	12
M Solomon FWD	16	2	3
G Moreno FWD	15		5

Ajax Champions League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
6	2	1	2
Y Baas	O Gloukh	M Godts	Y Baas

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Y Baas DEF	6			2 -
Y Regeer MID	6			-
D Klaassen MID	6			1 -
O Gloukh MID	6	2		-
M Godts FWD	6		1	-
J Sutalo DEF	5			-
A Gaaei DEF	5	1		2 -
K Itakura DEF	5			1 -
J. Mokio MID	5			1 -
R Moro FWD	5			-
V Jaroš GLK	4			-
O Wijndal DEF	4			-
K Taylor MID	4			1
K Fitz-Jim MID	4			-
W Weghorst FWD	4	1		2 -
L Rosa DEF	3		1	1 -
J. McConnell MID	3			1 -
K Dolberg FWD	3	1		-
R Pasveer GLK	2			-
R. Bounida FWD	2			-
O Edvardsen FWD	2			-
G. Alders DEF	1			-
A. Bouwman DEF	1			-
S. Steur MID	1		1	-
S Berghuis FWD	1			-
D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu FWD	1		1	-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
2	3	1	2
O Gloukh	O Gloukh	M Godts	A Gaaei

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
O Gloukh MID	2	3		1
A Gaaei DEF	1	2		2
W Weghorst FWD	1	1		1
K Dolberg FWD	1	3
D Klaassen MID		1
M Godts FWD		1	1	1
J. Mokio MID		2
K Taylor MID		1
K Fitz-Jim MID				1
L Rosa DEF			1
R. Bounida FWD		2		1
O Edvardsen FWD		1		1
S. Steur MID			1
D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu FWD		1	1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
391	14	30
Y Baas	Y Baas	Y Baas

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Y Baas DEF	391	14	30
J Sutalo DEF	282	2	10
K Itakura DEF	270	8	17
Y Regeer MID	184	2	8
J. Mokio MID	180	9	18
V Jaroš GLK	160	1	1
A Gaaei DEF	156	9	13
O Gloukh MID	147	3	12
O Wijndal DEF	130	5	12
D Klaassen MID	127	6	18
M Godts FWD	126	3	11
L Rosa DEF	120	12	21
K Taylor MID	117	8	22
R Pasveer GLK	87		1
W Weghorst FWD	59	2	18
R. Bounida FWD	57	2	8
A. Bouwman DEF	55	1	2
R Moro FWD	51	2	8
J. McConnell MID	39	1	4
S. Steur MID	38	4	4
O Edvardsen FWD	36	1	10
S Berghuis FWD	26		1
K Fitz-Jim MID	25	2	2
G. Alders DEF	22		3
K Dolberg FWD	15	1	7
D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu FWD	5		2