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Bahia v Vitória : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 18th May, 20:00 BST, Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador

Sunday night sees Rogério Mücke Ceni’s Bahia and Thiago Carpini Barbosa’s Vitória go head to head in a Serie A clash at the Arena Fonte Nova. Our predictions for each betting market are based on the past 20 games each side has played (home, away and overall) with extra weighting given to top teams. All the stats and graphics are tailored for the betting market in question. Head-to-head statistics for this fixture are also given if there are are enough previous meetings. Odds are provided straight from from leading bookmakers.


Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals as a betting market simply means there will only be a maximum of 2 goals scored in total by Bahia and Vitoria during the traditional 90 minutes. It's a bet the stats below and the odds both suggest is worth considering, and an outcome that we've seen these sides produce before. With no obvious winner in sight, our best bet prediction for this one is under 2.5 goals.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Bahia are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 54% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.67.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Bahia
54%
4/6-
Draw
28%
5/2
3%
-
Vitoria
18%
17/4
5%
-
Bahia 1-0
18%
9/2
10%
-
Draw 0-0
13%
13/2
15%
-
Bahia 2-0
12%
11/2-
Draw 1-1
12%
6/1-
Vitoria 1-0
9%
10/1
10%
-
Bahia 2-1
8%
8/1
5%
-
Bahia 3-0
6%
11/1-
Vitoria 2-1
4%
18/1-
Bahia 3-1
4%
16/1-
Vitoria 2-0
3%
25/1-
Draw 2-2
3%
20/1
9%
-
Bahia 4-0
2%
28/1-
Bahia 4-1
1%
33/1
17%
-
Bahia 3-2
1%
40/1-
Vitoria 3-1
1%
50/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
27/20
6%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
67%
4/7
5%
-
Home 1st Goal
55%
4/9-
Away 1st Goal
36%
12/5
6%
-
No 1st Goal
9%
13/2
15%
-
BTTS - Yes
37%
5/4
5%
-
BTTS - No
63%
4/7
3%
-
BTTS - Home Win
16%
15/4
5%
-
BTTS - Draw
15%
9/2-
BTTS - Away Win
6%
12/1
13%
-
Home/draw
82%
1/6
3%
-
Away/draw
46%
23/20-
Home/away
72%
2/7
1%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
61%
4/9
4%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
39%
7/4
5%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
15%
7/2
10%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
85%
1/5
3%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
6%
9/1
9%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
94%
1/16
1%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
2%
20/1
9%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
98%
1/66-
Over 0.5 Goals
87%
1/12
3%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
13%
13/2
15%
-
Home DNB
73%
1/4
2%
-
Away DNB
38%
11/4
6%
-
Bahia win to nil
38%
11/8
6%
-
Vitoria win to nil
12%
7/1-
Bahia / Bahia
31%
13/8-
Bahia / Vitoria
2%
40/1-
Bahia / Draw
5%
14/1-
Draw / Bahia
19%
10/3
8%
-
Draw / Vitoria
8%
9/1
9%
-
Draw / Draw
17%
15/4
6%
-
Vitoria / Bahia
3%
25/1
10%
-
Vitoria / Vitoria
9%
17/2
5%
-
Vitoria / Draw
5%
16/1
11%
-
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
6
Bahia have not lost in 6 consecutive home league games
6
Vitoria have not won in 6 consecutive away league games
Bahia 6TH
20 league games
Home
6
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bahia1 - 0Botafogo
Bahia1 - 0Ceara
Bahia1 - 1Mirassol
Bahia1 - 1Corinthians
Bahia2 - 0Atletico Go
Bahia1 - 1Athletico PR
Bahia1 - 2Palmeiras
Bahia0 - 3Sao Paulo
Bahia0 - 2Flamengo
Bahia1 - 0Criciuma
Bahia3 - 0A Mineiro
Bahia0 - 0Botafogo
Bahia2 - 0Vitoria
Bahia1 - 1Internacional
Bahia0 - 1Corinthians
Bahia1 - 2Cuiaba
Bahia2 - 0Juventude
Bahia2 - 1Vasco d Gama
Bahia4 - 1Cruzeiro
Bahia1 - 0Fortaleza
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
29
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
7
Draw
5
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HBahia1 - 0Botafogo
ABahia1 - 0Palmeiras
HBahia1 - 0Ceara
ABahia0 - 3Cruzeiro
HBahia1 - 1Mirassol
ABahia2 - 2Santos
HBahia1 - 1Corinthians
HBahia2 - 0Atletico Go
ABahia0 - 3Corinthians
ABahia2 - 1Cuiaba
HBahia1 - 1Athletico PR
HBahia1 - 2Palmeiras
ABahia1 - 2Juventude
HBahia0 - 3Sao Paulo
ABahia2 - 3Vasco d Gama
ABahia1 - 1Cruzeiro
HBahia0 - 2Flamengo
HBahia1 - 0Criciuma
ABahia1 - 4Fortaleza
HBahia3 - 0A Mineiro
Vitoria 18TH
20 league games
Away
6
Overall
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
5
Draw
6
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Ceara1 - 0Vitoria
Fluminense1 - 1Vitoria
A Mineiro2 - 2Vitoria
Juventude2 - 0Vitoria
Flamengo2 - 2Vitoria
Botafogo1 - 1Vitoria
Criciuma0 - 1Vitoria
Athletico PR1 - 2Vitoria
A Mineiro2 - 2Vitoria
Internacional3 - 1Vitoria
Atletico Go0 - 2Vitoria
Sao Paulo2 - 1Vitoria
Bahia2 - 0Vitoria
Palmeiras0 - 2Vitoria
Gremio2 - 0Vitoria
Fortaleza3 - 1Vitoria
Corinthians3 - 2Vitoria
Fluminense0 - 1Vitoria
Bragantino2 - 1Vitoria
Juventude1 - 1Vitoria
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
8
Draw
7
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AVitoria0 - 1Ceara
HVitoria1 - 1Gremio
AVitoria1 - 1Fluminense
HVitoria2 - 1Fortaleza
AVitoria2 - 2A Mineiro
HVitoria1 - 2Flamengo
AVitoria0 - 2Juventude
AVitoria2 - 2Flamengo
HVitoria1 - 1Gremio
HVitoria2 - 0Fortaleza
AVitoria1 - 1Botafogo
AVitoria1 - 0Criciuma
HVitoria1 - 2Corinthians
AVitoria2 - 1Athletico PR
HVitoria2 - 1Fluminense
HVitoria1 - 0Bragantino
AVitoria2 - 2A Mineiro
AVitoria1 - 3Internacional
HVitoria1 - 0Juventude
AVitoria2 - 0Atletico Go
Goal Statistics

Goals have been an issue for Bahia of late. It has been 5 Serie A matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.4 suggests they'll struggle to end that run on Sunday night against Vitória.

With a PG of just 0.7, Vitória look set to find it difficult here. Add in the fact that Bahia haven't conceded a goal in 3 consecutive Serie A games, and it could be a long night for T. Carpini Barbosa's men.

Bahia 6th Vitoria 18th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.4
goals
0.7
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 60% probability that Bahia will score no more than 1 goal
0
51%
1
34%
2
12%
3
4+
There is a 51% probability that Vitoria will fail to score
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-21
Bahia have scored 21% fewer goals at home than predicted
+26
Vitoria have scored 26% more goals when away than predicted
1.3
average goals scored
1.2
average goals scored
0.8
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/294538/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Bahia
PG (predicted goals)
Vitoria
1.4
0.7
Attack rating
15%
better
BAH
VIT
view stats
Games scored6
5
Failed to score1
2
Scored first5
2
Goals scored7
7
Avg. goals scored1
1
Avg. shots per game9
7
Avg. shots per goal9
7
Conversion rate for11
14
Avg. XG for1.3
0.9
KickOff rating
+15%
Defence rating
40%
better
BAH
VIT
view stats
Games conceded4
7
Clean sheets3
0
Conceded first2
5
Goals conceded7
10
Avg. goals conceded1
1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded9
12
Avg. shots/goal conceded9
8
Conversion rate against11%
12%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.3
KickOff rating
+40%

Bahia v Vitoria Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
7133
S MingoL JubaL JubaErick
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Juba DEF713
-
S Mingo DEF7
-
Erick MID71
3
-
Ademir FWD7
2
-
E Pulga FWD711
-
Gilberto DEF61
1
-
C Alexandre MID6
3
-
S Suay MID61
2
1
Cauly MID612
1
-
J Lucas MID6
1
-
L Rodriguez FWD6
1
-
D Duarte DEF5
-
W José FWD5
-
M Felipe GLK4
-
N Acevedo MID4
-
Iago DEF3
-
R Nestor MID3
-
Kayky FWD31
-
Kanu DEF2
-
S Arias DEF2
1
-
G Xavier DEF2
1
-
F. Lippert Neto Gomes DEF1
-
M Araújo MID1
-
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD1
-
R. Barbosa Sousa FWD1
-
Vitoria Serie A squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
7223
JamersonMatheuzinhoJamersonClaudinho
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Claudinho DEF7
3
-
Jamerson DEF72
-
L Halter DEF71
1
-
R Ryller MID7
1
-
J Costa FWD71
1
-
L Arcanjo GLK6
-
Z Marcos DEF6
-
Matheuzinho MID62
2
-
F Fabrício FWD61
-
G Baralhas MID5
1
-
Ronald MID5
1
-
G Mosquito  FWD52
-
W Oliveira MID3
1
-
W Rato MID31
-
Osvaldo FWD3
-
L Braga FWD31
1
-
Neris DEF2
1
-
Carlinhos FWD21
1
-
Gabriel GLK1
-
Edu DEF1
-
R Cáceres DEF1
1
-
C Eduardo FWD1
-