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Gremio v Sao Paulo : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Thu 16th Oct, 23:00 BST, Arena do Grêmio, Rio

Gremio and Sao Paulo go head to head at the Arena do Grêmio on Thursday night, with both Luiz Antônio Venker de Menezes and Hernán Jorge Crespo aiming for victory in the Serie A. All stats, including an in-depth look at the form of both sides and head to head (H2H) history, will update as you click through each of the 17 major markets via the tabs below. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers and, of course, KickOff's predictions will too.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

We're tipping a game with little to choose between the sides here and, as such, are predicting under 2.5 goals. For those unfamiliar with that term, this simply means that 2 goals or fewer will be scored in total as Gremio and Sao Paulo go head-to-head. Tight defences and clear heads will be required to deliver us a winner, but we have reason to trust both sides to deliver precisely that. The statistics and the odds below point in this direction too.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Gremio are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 41% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.30.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Gremio 41%	13/10	-
Draw 30%	11/5	-
Sao Paulo 29%	11/5	-
Gremio 1-0 15%	11/2	-
Draw 1-1 13%	5/1	-
Draw 0-0 13%	6/1	-
Sao Paulo 1-0 12%	13/2	-
Gremio 2-0 8%	9/1	-
Gremio 2-1 8%	9/1	-
Sao Paulo 2-1 6%	11/1	-
Sao Paulo 2-0 5%	14/1	-
Draw 2-2 4%	18/1	-
Gremio 3-0 3%	20/1	-
Gremio 3-1 3%	20/1	-
Sao Paulo 3-1 2%	28/1	-
Sao Paulo 3-0 2%	33/1	-
Gremio 3-2 1%	40/1	-
Sao Paulo 3-2 1%	40/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 34%	7/5	-
Under 2.5 Goals 66%	8/15	-
Home 1st Goal 49%	10/11	-
Away 1st Goal 43%	5/4	-
No 1st Goal 9%	6/1	-
BTTS - Yes 41%	21/20	-
BTTS - No 59%	7/10	-
BTTS - Home Win 14%	5/1	-
BTTS - Draw 17%	15/4	-
BTTS - Away Win 10%	13/2	-
Home/draw 71%	4/11	-
Away/draw 59%	4/7	-
Home/away 70%	4/11	-
Over 1.5 Goals 61%	1/2	-
Under 1.5 Goals 39%	13/8	-
Over 3.5 Goals 16%	7/2	-
Under 3.5 Goals 85%	1/5	-
Over 4.5 Goals 6%	10/1	-
Under 4.5 Goals 94%	1/20	-
Over 5.5 Goals 2%	22/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 98%	1/80	-
Over 0.5 Goals 87%	1/10	-
Under 0.5 Goals 13%	6/1	-
Home DNB 62%	8/13	-
Away DNB 50%	6/5	-
Gremio win to nil 27%	5/2	-
Sao Paulo win to nil 19%	4/1	-
Gremio / Gremio 22%	11/4	-
Gremio / Sao Paulo 2%	33/1	-
Gremio / Draw 6%	14/1	-
Draw / Gremio 15%	9/2	-
Draw / Sao Paulo 12%	6/1	-
Draw / Draw 19%	10/3	-
Sao Paulo / Gremio 3%	28/1	-
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo 15%	9/2	-
Sao Paulo / Draw 6%	14/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Gremio	3 - 1	Vitoria
Gremio	1 - 1	Botafogo
Gremio	0 - 1	Mirassol
Gremio	0 - 0	Ceara
Gremio	0 - 1	S. Recife
Gremio	2 - 1	Fortaleza
Gremio	1 - 1	Corinthians
Gremio	1 - 0	Bahia
Gremio	1 - 1	Bragantino
Gremio	1 - 0	Santos
Gremio	1 - 1	Internacional
Gremio	0 - 2	Flamengo
Gremio	2 - 1	A Mineiro
Gremio	0 - 3	Corinthians
Gremio	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
Gremio	2 - 2	Juventude
Gremio	3 - 1	Atletico Go
Gremio	3 - 1	Fortaleza
Gremio	1 - 2	Criciuma
Gremio	3 - 2	Flamengo

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Gremio	1 - 1	Santos
H	Gremio	3 - 1	Vitoria
H	Gremio	1 - 1	Botafogo
A	Gremio	3 - 2	Internacional
H	Gremio	0 - 1	Mirassol
A	Gremio	1 - 1	Flamengo
H	Gremio	0 - 0	Ceara
A	Gremio	3 - 1	A Mineiro
H	Gremio	0 - 1	S. Recife
A	Gremio	0 - 1	Fluminense
H	Gremio	2 - 1	Fortaleza
A	Gremio	0 - 1	Palmeiras
A	Gremio	1 - 1	Vasco d Gama
A	Gremio	1 - 4	Cruzeiro
H	Gremio	1 - 1	Corinthians
A	Gremio	2 - 0	Juventude
H	Gremio	1 - 0	Bahia
A	Gremio	1 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Gremio	1 - 1	Bragantino
H	Gremio	1 - 0	Santos

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Fortaleza	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
Santos	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
S. Recife	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
Internacional	1 - 2	Sao Paulo
Juventude	0 - 1	Sao Paulo
Bragantino	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
Flamengo	2 - 0	Sao Paulo
Bahia	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
Palmeiras	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
Ceara	1 - 1	Sao Paulo
Botafogo	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
A Mineiro	0 - 0	Sao Paulo
Botafogo	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
Gremio	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
Bragantino	1 - 1	Sao Paulo
Bahia	0 - 3	Sao Paulo
Criciuma	1 - 1	Sao Paulo
Cuiaba	2 - 0	Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro	0 - 1	Sao Paulo

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Fortaleza
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Ceara
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Santos
H	Sao Paulo	1 - 0	Botafogo
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Cruzeiro
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	A Mineiro
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	S. Recife
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Vitoria
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Internacional
H	Sao Paulo	3 - 1	Fluminense
A	Sao Paulo	1 - 0	Juventude
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Corinthians
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	Bragantino
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 2	Flamengo
H	Sao Paulo	1 - 3	Vasco d Gama
A	Sao Paulo	1 - 2	Bahia
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 2	Mirassol
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Gremio
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Palmeiras
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 0	Fortaleza

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Gremio have beaten Sao Paulo in 3 consecutive home league meetings

Gremio

Sao Paulo

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 6

4 / 6

Clean sheets

2 / 6

0 / 6

GRE

SAO

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Gremio
Gremio	2 - 1
Gremio	2 - 1
Gremio	3 - 0
	1 - 2	Sao Paulo
Gremio	3 - 0
Gremio	2 - 1

Sao Paulo

Gremio

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 7

3 / 7

Clean sheets

4 / 7

2 / 7

SAO

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo	2 - 1
Sao Paulo	1 - 0
Sao Paulo	3 - 0
Sao Paulo	2 - 1
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Goal Statistics

Sao Paulo's defensive record is to be admired, Hernán Jorge Crespo's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive Serie A outings. An average PG rating of 1.1 for Gremio makes sense in this context.

	Gremio 10th	Sao Paulo 7th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.1 goals	0.9 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 32% 1 36% 2 21% 3 4+ There is a 68% probability that Gremio will score no more than 1 goal	0 40% 1 37% 2 17% 3 4+ There is a 77% probability of Sao Paulo scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	=0 Gremio’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+18 Sao Paulo have scored 18% more goals when away than predicted
	1.4 average goals scored	1.1 average goals scored
	1.2 conceded	1.2 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season

GRE

SAO

better

view stats

Games scored	17		16
Failed to score	7		8
Scored first	10		11
Goals scored	24		27
Avg. goals scored	0.9		1
Avg. shots per game	8		8
Avg. shots per goal	8		8
Conversion rate for	12		13
Avg. XG for	1.1		1.3
KickOff rating		+1%

GRE

SAO

17%

better

view stats

Games conceded	20		16
Clean sheets	4		8
Conceded first	13		10
Goals conceded	30		24
Avg. goals conceded	1.2		0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	9		8
Conversion rate against	12%		12%
Avg. XG against	1.6		1.1
KickOff rating		+17%

Gremio v Sao Paulo Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Gremio Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	6	2	6
T Volpi	M Braithwaite	Marlon	W Kannemann

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Volpi GLK	24	2		2 -
Wagner DEF	22		1	2 -
Dodi MID	22			4 1
A. da Rocha dos Santos FWD	21	1	1	3 -
Marlon DEF	20		2	5 -
Edenilson MID	20	3	1	4 -
F Cristaldo MID	19		2	1 -
C Olivera FWD	18	2		3 -
M Braithwaite FWD	18	6	1	3 -
C Pavón FWD	17		2	4 -
M Villasanti MID	16			5 -
André FWD	16	3	2	2 -
A Guzmán FWD	16	3		1 -
W Kannemann DEF	14			6 -
Camilo MID	12			-
F Amuzu FWD	12	2	1	2 -
G Martins DEF	11	1		2 -
R. Freitas dos Santos MID	10			-
Jemerson DEF	9	1		3 -
M Monsalve MID	8		1	2 -
J Pedro DEF	7			-
A Santana MID	7			4 -
G Cuéllar MID	7			1 -
L Esteves DEF	6			1 -
E Mola MID	6			-
M Rocha DEF	5			1 -
Arthur MID	4			1 1
C Vinícius FWD	4	1		1 1
G Grando GLK	3			1 1
F Balbuena DEF	3	1		-
Willian FWD	3		1	-
V Lopes DEF	2			-
J Lucas DEF	2			1 -
R Ely DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	16	2	6
M Braithwaite	M Braithwaite	Marlon	Marlon

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Braithwaite FWD	6	16	1	1
Edenilson MID	3	8	1	4
André FWD	3	10	2	2
A Guzmán FWD	3	4		2
T Volpi GLK	2	2
C Olivera FWD	2	9		1
F Amuzu FWD	2	7	1	2
A. da Rocha dos Santos FWD	1	8	1	5
G Martins DEF	1	5
Jemerson DEF	1	2
C Vinícius FWD	1	3		1
F Balbuena DEF	1	1
Wagner DEF		4	1	2
Dodi MID		1		1
Marlon DEF		2	2	6
F Cristaldo MID		2	2	3
C Pavón FWD		4	2	2
W Kannemann DEF		2
Camilo MID				1
R. Freitas dos Santos MID		1		2
M Monsalve MID		1	1
J Pedro DEF		3
A Santana MID		1
L Esteves DEF		1
M Rocha DEF				1
Arthur MID		1
Willian FWD			1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
921	51	143
Wagner	Marlon	A. da Rocha dos Santos

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Wagner DEF	921	19	78
Marlon DEF	761	51	97
T Volpi GLK	634		16
M Villasanti MID	535	43	81
Dodi MID	520	37	86
W Kannemann DEF	506	21	76
Edenilson MID	345	12	52
Jemerson DEF	336	18	43
G Martins DEF	327	15	45
C Pavón FWD	325	17	48
F Cristaldo MID	319	15	57
A. da Rocha dos Santos FWD	312	37	143
G Cuéllar MID	285	17	33
M Braithwaite FWD	260	10	70
L Esteves DEF	245	9	30
C Olivera FWD	240	27	87
M Rocha DEF	239	18	33
E Mola MID	227	7	20
Arthur MID	225	9	24
J Pedro DEF	209	8	20
Camilo MID	182	21	34
F Balbuena DEF	166	3	12
R. Freitas dos Santos MID	166	6	32
A Santana MID	164	4	18
André FWD	162	9	34
F Amuzu FWD	138	4	28
A Guzmán FWD	121	7	21
M Monsalve MID	103	5	24
Willian FWD	90		9
G Grando GLK	47		1
C Vinícius FWD	33	1	19
J Lucas DEF	18	4	4
R Ely DEF	13	1	3
V Lopes DEF	7

Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	5	4	7
Rafael	Luciano	E Díaz	Luciano

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Rafael GLK	24			2 -
C Soares DEF	22		2	1 -
E Díaz DEF	22		4	6 -
Luciano FWD	22	5	3	7 -
D Bobadilla MID	21	2	1	3 -
Alisson MID	21		1	4 -
Sabino DEF	20	1		2 -
A Silva FWD	20	5	2	5 -
N Ferraresi DEF	19		3	2 -
A Franco DEF	19			5 -
Ferreira FWD	19	4	2	3 -
M Antônio MID	18		2	4 -
Rodrigo MID	16			5 -
R Arboleda DEF	15	3		3 -
Wendell DEF	15		1	-
P Maia MID	15	1		2 -
G Tapia FWD	8	3		3 -
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	8	2		-
J Dinenno FWD	7	1		2 -
Luan MID	6			-
Oscar MID	6			1 -
L Moura FWD	4	1		-
Patryck DEF	3			1 -
M Maílton DEF	3			-
R Tolói DEF	3			-
L. Marques Alencar FWD	3			-
E Rigoni FWD	3			1 1
J Calleri FWD	3			1
Young GLK	2			-
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	2	1		2 -
F Negrucci MID	2			-
L Gustavo MID	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	19	4	7
Luciano	Luciano	E Díaz	E Díaz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Luciano FWD	5	19	3	3
A Silva FWD	5	9	2	3
Ferreira FWD	4	10	2	4
R Arboleda DEF	3	3
G Tapia FWD	3	5
D Bobadilla MID	2	9	1	2
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	2	3
Sabino DEF	1	4		1
P Maia MID	1	1
J Dinenno FWD	1	4
L Moura FWD	1	1
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	1	1
C Soares DEF			2	4
E Díaz DEF		1	4	7
Alisson MID		7	1	1
N Ferraresi DEF		2	3	3
A Franco DEF				1
M Antônio MID		1	2	4
Rodrigo MID		4
Wendell DEF			1	1
Luan MID		1
Oscar MID		2		2
Patryck DEF		1
E Rigoni FWD		2
J Calleri FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1009	63	121
Alisson	E Díaz	E Díaz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Alisson MID	1009	25	69
A Franco DEF	939	17	67
Sabino DEF	819	21	74
D Bobadilla MID	811	36	67
N Ferraresi DEF	807	61	116
R Arboleda DEF	740	18	60
C Soares DEF	682	26	47
M Antônio MID	672	16	40
E Díaz DEF	660	63	121
Rafael GLK	516	1	13
P Maia MID	450	15	39
Luciano FWD	381	21	72
Ferreira FWD	369	15	91
Wendell DEF	367	18	52
Rodrigo MID	309	14	36
A Silva FWD	250	12	67
Oscar MID	173	2	13
R Tolói DEF	114	10	14
G Tapia FWD	93		28
Luan MID	88	2	8
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	78	3	9
Patryck DEF	74	2	7
F Negrucci MID	72	1	5
L Moura FWD	55	2	19
L Gustavo MID	55	7	14
M Maílton DEF	50		11
Young GLK	37		2
J Dinenno FWD	35	3	14
L. Marques Alencar FWD	33	1	10
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	28		9
E Rigoni FWD	16		4
J Calleri FWD	14	2	5