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Vitória v Bahia : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 17th Oct, 01:30 BST, Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador

It's an away match for Rogério Mücke Ceni's Bahia side on Friday morning, as they make their way to the Estádio Manoel Barradas for a Serie A clash with Jair Zaksauskas Ribeiro Ventura's Vitória. Our predictions for each betting market are calculated using the past 20 games each side has played (home, away and overall) with extra weighting applied to top teams. All the stats and infographics are tailored for the selected market. Head-to-head statistics between the team are also given if there is some fixture history. Odds are provided straight from from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Vitoria are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 41% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 3.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Vitoria 41%	2/1	-
Draw 28%	11/5	-
Bahia 31%	7/5	-
Draw 1-1 13%	5/1	-
Vitoria 1-0 12%	15/2	-
Bahia 1-0 10%	13/2	-
Draw 0-0 10%	15/2	-
Vitoria 2-1 8%	10/1	-
Vitoria 2-0 8%	12/1	-
Bahia 2-1 7%	9/1	-
Bahia 2-0 6%	10/1	-
Draw 2-2 4%	14/1	-
Vitoria 3-1 4%	25/1	-
Vitoria 3-0 3%	28/1	-
Bahia 3-1 2%	20/1	-
Bahia 3-0 2%	22/1	-
Vitoria 3-2 2%	33/1	-
Bahia 3-2 2%	33/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 41%	23/20	-
Under 2.5 Goals 59%	4/6	-
Home 1st Goal 49%	11/10	-
Away 1st Goal 45%	10/11	-
No 1st Goal 6%	15/2	-
BTTS - Yes 47%	10/11	-
BTTS - No 53%	10/11	-
BTTS - Home Win 16%	11/2	-
BTTS - Draw 18%	7/2	-
BTTS - Away Win 13%	9/2	-
Home/draw 69%	8/15	-
Away/draw 59%	4/11	-
Home/away 72%	4/11	-
Over 1.5 Goals 68%	4/11	-
Under 1.5 Goals 32%	11/5	-
Over 3.5 Goals 21%	3/1	-
Under 3.5 Goals 79%	1/4	-
Over 4.5 Goals 9%	7/1	-
Under 4.5 Goals 91%	1/12	-
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	16/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1/40	-
Over 0.5 Goals 90%	1/14	-
Under 0.5 Goals 10%	15/2	-
Home DNB 60%	1/1	-
Away DNB 51%	8/11	-
Vitoria win to nil 25%	7/2	-
Bahia win to nil 18%	3/1	-
Vitoria / Vitoria 18%	15/4	-
Vitoria / Bahia 3%	28/1	-
Vitoria / Draw 6%	14/1	-
Draw / Vitoria 13%	11/2	-
Draw / Bahia 14%	5/1	-
Draw / Draw 18%	15/4	-
Bahia / Vitoria 3%	28/1	-
Bahia / Bahia 21%	3/1	-
Bahia / Draw 6%	14/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Vitoria	1 - 0	Ceara
Vitoria	0 - 1	Fluminense
Vitoria	1 - 0	A Mineiro
Vitoria	2 - 2	Juventude
Vitoria	2 - 2	Palmeiras
Vitoria	2 - 2	S. Recife
Vitoria	1 - 0	Bragantino
Vitoria	0 - 0	Cruzeiro
Vitoria	0 - 1	Santos
Vitoria	2 - 1	Vasco d Gama
Vitoria	1 - 1	Gremio
Vitoria	2 - 1	Fortaleza
Vitoria	1 - 2	Flamengo
Vitoria	1 - 1	Gremio
Vitoria	2 - 0	Fortaleza
Vitoria	1 - 2	Corinthians
Vitoria	2 - 1	Fluminense
Vitoria	1 - 0	Bragantino
Vitoria	1 - 0	Juventude
Vitoria	0 - 1	Vasco d Gama

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	Ceara
A	Vitoria	1 - 3	Gremio
H	Vitoria	0 - 1	Fluminense
A	Vitoria	0 - 2	Fortaleza
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	A Mineiro
A	Vitoria	0 - 8	Flamengo
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	Juventude
A	Vitoria	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	Palmeiras
A	Vitoria	1 - 1	Mirassol
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	S. Recife
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	Bragantino
A	Vitoria	0 - 0	Botafogo
A	Vitoria	0 - 1	Internacional
H	Vitoria	0 - 0	Cruzeiro
A	Vitoria	0 - 0	Corinthians
H	Vitoria	0 - 1	Santos
A	Vitoria	1 - 2	Bahia
H	Vitoria	2 - 1	Vasco d Gama
A	Vitoria	0 - 1	Ceara

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Botafogo	2 - 1	Bahia
Vasco d Gama	3 - 1	Bahia
Ceara	1 - 1	Bahia
Mirassol	5 - 1	Bahia
Corinthians	1 - 2	Bahia
S. Recife	0 - 0	Bahia
Fortaleza	1 - 1	Bahia
Bragantino	0 - 3	Bahia
Gremio	1 - 0	Bahia
Flamengo	1 - 0	Bahia
Palmeiras	0 - 1	Bahia
Cruzeiro	3 - 0	Bahia
Santos	2 - 2	Bahia
Corinthians	3 - 0	Bahia
Cuiaba	1 - 2	Bahia
Juventude	2 - 1	Bahia
Vasco d Gama	3 - 2	Bahia
Cruzeiro	1 - 1	Bahia
Fortaleza	4 - 1	Bahia
Bragantino	2 - 1	Bahia

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Bahia	1 - 2	Botafogo
H	Bahia	1 - 0	Palmeiras
A	Bahia	1 - 3	Vasco d Gama
A	Bahia	1 - 1	Ceara
H	Bahia	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
A	Bahia	1 - 5	Mirassol
H	Bahia	2 - 0	Santos
A	Bahia	2 - 1	Corinthians
H	Bahia	3 - 3	Fluminense
A	Bahia	0 - 0	S. Recife
H	Bahia	3 - 0	Juventude
A	Bahia	1 - 1	Fortaleza
H	Bahia	2 - 1	A Mineiro
A	Bahia	3 - 0	Bragantino
H	Bahia	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
A	Bahia	0 - 1	Gremio
H	Bahia	2 - 1	Vitoria
A	Bahia	0 - 1	Flamengo
H	Bahia	1 - 0	Botafogo
A	Bahia	1 - 0	Palmeiras

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Bahia have not lost to Vitoria in 5 consecutive league meetings

Vitoria

Bahia

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

2 / 2

Clean sheets

0 / 2

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Vitoria
Draw		2 - 2		Draw
Draw		2 - 2		Draw

Bahia

Vitoria

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

3 / 3

2 / 3

Clean sheets

1 / 3

0 / 3

BAH

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Bahia
Bahia		2 - 1
Bahia		2 - 0
Bahia		4 - 1

Goal Statistics

Goals have been a problem for Vitória of late. It has been 6 Serie A matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.3 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Friday morning against Bahia.

	Vitoria 17th	Bahia 6th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.3 goals	1.1 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 28% 1 36% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 64% probability that Vitoria will score no more than 1 goal	0 34% 1 37% 2 20% 3 4+ There is a 71% probability that Bahia will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-9 Vitoria’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	=0 Bahia’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.2 average goals scored	1.1 average goals scored
	0.9 conceded	1.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season

VIT

BAH

38%

better

view stats

Games scored	13		19
Failed to score	11		4
Scored first	7		14
Goals scored	19		31
Avg. goals scored	0.7		1.2
Avg. shots per game	8		9
Avg. shots per goal	11		7
Conversion rate for	9		14
Avg. XG for	1		1.2
KickOff rating		+38%

VIT

BAH

18%

better

view stats

Games conceded	19		16
Clean sheets	5		7
Conceded first	14		8
Goals conceded	35		28
Avg. goals conceded	1.3		1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded	11		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		8
Conversion rate against	13%		13%
Avg. XG against	1.5		1.4
KickOff rating		+18%

Vitoria v Bahia Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Vitoria Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
25	7	2	7
L Arcanjo	R Kayzer	Ronald	G Baralhas

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Arcanjo GLK	25			2 -
L Halter DEF	24	1	1	5 -
Ronald MID	22		2	4 -
Erick FWD	20	3	2	5 -
Osvaldo FWD	20		2	3 -
Z Marcos DEF	19	1	1	3 -
G Baralhas MID	19	1	1	7 -
R Kayzer FWD	19	7		2 -
Matheuzinho MID	18	2		3 1
R Ryller MID	16			3 -
F Fabrício FWD	16		1	-
L Braga FWD	15	1		1 -
Claudinho DEF	14			5 -
Edu DEF	13			-
Pepê MID	13			3 1
Jamerson DEF	12		2	-
R Cáceres DEF	12		1	4 -
R López FWD	12	1		2 -
W Oliveira MID	11			4 -
Ramon DEF	8			2 -
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF	7			1 -
A Cantalapiedra MID	7	1	1	1 -
Camutanga DEF	5			2 -
Neris DEF	4			1 1
R Rodrigues MID	4			-
Romarinho FWD	4			-
Carlinhos FWD	4	1		2 -
F. Cardoso MID	3			-
Dudu MID	2			2 1
Ismael MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
7	14	2	4
R Kayzer	R Kayzer	Ronald	Claudinho

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Kayzer FWD	7	14		3
Erick FWD	3	9	2	3
Matheuzinho MID	2	12		1
L Halter DEF	1	4	1	1
Z Marcos DEF	1	1	1	1
G Baralhas MID	1	5	1	2
L Braga FWD	1	3		1
R López FWD	1	5		1
A Cantalapiedra MID	1	5	1	1
Carlinhos FWD	1	1
Ronald MID		6	2	3
Osvaldo FWD		6	2	2
R Ryller MID		4		1
F Fabrício FWD		3	1	1
Claudinho DEF		1		4
Edu DEF		1		1
Pepê MID		1
Jamerson DEF		5	2	3
R Cáceres DEF		4	1	1
W Oliveira MID		1
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF		1
Camutanga DEF		1
Neris DEF		1
Romarinho FWD		1
F. Cardoso MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1127	36	86
L Halter	Ronald	Erick

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Halter DEF	1127	29	79
Z Marcos DEF	819	12	66
L Arcanjo GLK	636	1	4
G Baralhas MID	587	35	81
Ronald MID	579	36	84
Matheuzinho MID	444	16	77
Jamerson DEF	440	26	63
Claudinho DEF	397	21	42
R Ryller MID	377	16	41
R Cáceres DEF	352	19	42
Erick FWD	350	13	86
Pepê MID	274	23	52
Ramon DEF	252	11	30
R Kayzer FWD	244	11	72
Osvaldo FWD	243	10	50
W Oliveira MID	240	13	30
L Braga FWD	237	18	56
Edu DEF	223	21	38
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF	198	6	22
Camutanga DEF	152	5	19
Neris DEF	133	2	11
A Cantalapiedra MID	129	2	13
R López FWD	56	5	40
F Fabrício FWD	55	12	39
Romarinho FWD	53	1	12
Dudu MID	50	2	3
Carlinhos FWD	30	2	17
R Rodrigues MID	21	2	4
F. Cardoso MID	16	1	7
Ismael MID	4

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	5	4	5
L Juba	L Juba	W José	S Suay

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Juba DEF	25	5	3	2 -
S Mingo DEF	24			4 -
S Suay MID	23	2	3	4 1
J Lucas MID	22	3	1	2 2
W José FWD	21	4	4	2 -
N Acevedo MID	19			3 -
Kayky FWD	19	1	1	1 -
Cauly MID	18	1	3	1 -
Ademir FWD	18	1	1	4 -
Gilberto DEF	17	1		5 -
D Duarte DEF	17			3 -
C Alexandre MID	16		1	4 -
E Pulga FWD	16	2	3	1 -
M Araújo FWD	16	4		1 -
Ronaldo GLK	15		1	-
R Nestor MID	14	3		3 -
S Arias DEF	13			3 -
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD	11		1	-
G Xavier DEF	9			3 -
Iago DEF	8			-
Rezende MID	8			-
Erick MID	8	1		3 -
M Sanabria FWD	6	1		2 1
Kanu DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	14	4	8
L Juba	W José	W José	S Suay

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
L Juba DEF	5	8	3	5
W José FWD	4	14	4	3
M Araújo FWD	4	6		1
J Lucas MID	3	10	1	6
R Nestor MID	3	5		2
S Suay MID	2	6	3	8
E Pulga FWD	2	7	3	7
Kayky FWD	1	6	1	1
Cauly MID	1	4	3	2
Ademir FWD	1	7	1	6
Gilberto DEF	1	3		1
Erick MID	1	1
M Sanabria FWD	1	2
S Mingo DEF				2
N Acevedo MID		4		1
D Duarte DEF		2
C Alexandre MID		1	1	1
Ronaldo GLK			1
S Arias DEF		2
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD		1	1	1
Iago DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1277	40	99
S Mingo	L Juba	S Mingo

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Mingo DEF	1277	23	99
L Juba DEF	1126	40	80
C Alexandre MID	931	25	64
D Duarte DEF	924	14	69
S Suay MID	868	36	99
Gilberto DEF	746	38	76
J Lucas MID	702	33	96
N Acevedo MID	572	29	61
S Arias DEF	464	13	26
Ronaldo GLK	435		12
G Xavier DEF	384	10	39
Cauly MID	322	3	21
E Pulga FWD	316	26	92
Ademir FWD	299	25	83
W José FWD	290	5	49
Kayky FWD	288	16	48
R Nestor MID	259	14	28
M Araújo FWD	187	13	41
Rezende MID	183	6	23
Erick MID	143	10	22
Iago DEF	94	7	13
M Sanabria FWD	87	3	43
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD	65	8	32
Kanu DEF	61	1	2