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Derby County v Sheffield Wednesday : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 7th Mar, 15:00 BST, Pride Park Stadium, Derby

John Eustace and Henrik Pedersen pit their wits in the Championship on Saturday afternoon, as Derby County face Sheffield Wednesday at the Pride Park Stadium. We've analysed both sides' last 20 Championship matches, as well as baseline data within the competition and the market, to generate our percentage predictions. All the statistics, including head to heads (H2H), are shown below, alongside odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Derby 55%	-	-
Draw 24%	-	-
Sheff Wed 21%	-	-
Derby 1-0 12%	-	-
Draw 1-1 11%	-	-
Derby 2-0 10%	-	-
Derby 2-1 10%	-	-
Draw 0-0 7%	-	-
Sheff Wed 1-0 7%	-	-
Derby 3-0 6%	-	-
Derby 3-1 5%	-	-
Sheff Wed 2-1 5%	-	-
Draw 2-2 5%	-	-
Sheff Wed 2-0 3%	-	-
Derby 3-2 3%	-	-
Derby 4-0 2%	-	-
Derby 4-1 2%	-	-
Sheff Wed 3-1 2%	-	-
Over 2.5 Goals 49%	-	-
Under 2.5 Goals 51%	-	-
Home 1st Goal 55%	-	-
Away 1st Goal 41%	-	-
No 1st Goal 5%	-	-
BTTS - Yes 49%	-	-
BTTS - No 51%	-	-
BTTS - Home Win 23%	-	-
BTTS - Draw 17%	-	-
BTTS - Away Win 10%	-	-
Home/draw 79%	-	-
Away/draw 45%	-	-
Home/away 76%	-	-
Over 1.5 Goals 74%	-	-
Under 1.5 Goals 26%	-	-
Over 3.5 Goals 27%	-	-
Under 3.5 Goals 73%	-	-
Over 4.5 Goals 12%	-	-
Under 4.5 Goals 88%	-	-
Over 5.5 Goals 5%	-	-
Under 5.5 Goals 95%	-	-
Over 0.5 Goals 93%	-	-
Under 0.5 Goals 7%	-	-
Home DNB 72%	-	-
Away DNB 38%	-	-
Derby win to nil 32%	-	-
Sheff Wed win to nil 11%	-	-

Win / draw / win Championship table

Derby have played 33 matches so far this season and lay in 8th place in the Championship league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 23 games against teams below in the table, having won 11, drawn 5 and lost 7 matches. They have kept 7 clean sheets and have failed to score in 3 fixtures. Derby have outscored their opponents by 47 goals to 20 goals.

Home League Performance

Derby have played 17 games at home winning 5, drawing 6 and losing 6 games. They have scored 21 goals, kept 4 clean sheets and conceded 23 goals at home.

Sheff Wed are in 24th position in the Championship on -7 points having played 33 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

11 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 31 goals and kept 2 clean sheets. They have scored 12 goals in total and failed to score in 7 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

33 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 24 games, drawn 8 and won 1. Sheff Wed have conceded 66 goals, scored 20, failed to score in 18 fixtures and have kept 3 clean sheets.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Derby Sheff Wed
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Coventry	33	19	8	6	32	65	l 3-5A	Apr 3	l 0-5A	Apr 11
2	M'Boro	33	18	8	7	17	62	w 1-0F	l 2-1F	l 0-1A	Apr 21
3	Millwall	33	16	8	9	2	56	d 1-1A	Mar 10	l 1-2F	l 1-0A
4	Ipswich	31	15	9	7	20	54	l 1-2A	d 2-2A	Mar 14	l 3-1A
5	Hull	32	16	6	10	5	54	w 2-1F	Feb 24	d 2-2F	Mar 21
6	Wrexham	33	13	12	8	7	51	l 1-2A	d 1-1A	l 0-1A	d 2-2A
7	Birmingham	33	13	10	10	5	49	Mar 21	d 1-1F	l 0-2A	d 2-2A
8	Derby	33	13	9	11	6	48	-	-	l 0-3A	Mar 7
9	Watford	33	12	12	9	5	48	l 2-3F	l 2-0A	Mar 10	d 1-1F
10	Preston	33	12	12	9	3	48	l 0-1A	w 0-1F	l 2-3F	l 3-0A
11	Southampton	33	12	11	10	4	47	d 1-1A	Apr 11	Feb 28	l 3-1A
12	Bristol C	33	13	8	12	4	47	d 1-1A	w 0-5F	l 0-3A	l 2-0A
13	QPR	33	13	8	12	-1	47	w 1-0F	Apr 25	d 1-1F	l 3-0A
14	Sheff Utd	33	14	3	16	1	45	May 2	w 1-3F	l 0-3A	l 2-1A
15	Swansea	33	13	6	14	0	45	w 2-0F	w 1-2F	l 0-2A	l 4-0A
16	Stoke	33	12	8	13	5	44	Apr 6	l 3-1F	l 0-3A	Apr 3
17	Charlton	33	10	10	13	-10	40	d 1-1A	w 1-2F	Apr 18	l 2-1A
18	Norwich	33	11	6	16	-1	39	w 1-0F	Apr 21	d 1-1F	Feb 25
19	Portsmouth	32	10	9	13	-8	39	d 1-1A	Mar 16	l 0-1A	w 0-2F
20	Blackburn	33	10	8	15	-10	38	Feb 28	w 1-2F	d 0-00-0	l 1-0A
21	West Brom	33	9	7	17	-17	34	d 1-1F	w 0-1F	May 2	d 0-00-0
22	Leicester	33	10	9	14	-7	33	l 1-3A	l 2-1A	Apr 6	l 2-1F
23	Oxford Utd	33	6	11	16	-16	29	Apr 18	l 1-0A	l 1-2A	Apr 25
24	Sheff Wed	33	1	8	24	-46	-7	Mar 7	w 0-3F	-	-

	Promotion
	Promotion Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Derby	2 - 0	Swansea
Derby	1 - 2	Ipswich
Derby	1 - 1	West Brom
Derby	1 - 2	Wrexham
Derby	1 - 0	M'Boro
Derby	1 - 1	Portsmouth
Derby	1 - 1	Millwall
Derby	1 - 3	Leicester
Derby	2 - 3	Watford
Derby	2 - 1	Hull
Derby	1 - 0	QPR
Derby	1 - 0	Norwich
Derby	1 - 1	Southampton
Derby	1 - 1	Charlton
Derby	0 - 1	Preston
Derby	1 - 1	Bristol C
Derby	3 - 5	Coventry
Derby	0 - 0	Stoke
Derby	0 - 1	Luton
Derby	0 - 0	Burnley

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Derby	0 - 2	Watford
H	Derby	2 - 0	Swansea
H	Derby	1 - 2	Ipswich
A	Derby	5 - 0	Bristol C
H	Derby	1 - 1	West Brom
A	Derby	2 - 1	Charlton
A	Derby	1 - 0	Preston
H	Derby	1 - 2	Wrexham
H	Derby	1 - 0	M'Boro
A	Derby	1 - 2	Leicester
A	Derby	1 - 1	Birmingham
H	Derby	1 - 1	Portsmouth
A	Derby	3 - 0	Sheff Wed
H	Derby	1 - 1	Millwall
H	Derby	1 - 3	Leicester
A	Derby	1 - 2	M'Boro
A	Derby	2 - 1	Swansea
H	Derby	2 - 3	Watford
A	Derby	2 - 1	Blackburn
H	Derby	2 - 1	Hull

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Swansea	4 - 0	Sheff Wed
Blackburn	1 - 0	Sheff Wed
Bristol C	2 - 0	Sheff Wed
QPR	3 - 0	Sheff Wed
Preston	3 - 0	Sheff Wed
Ipswich	3 - 1	Sheff Wed
Watford	1 - 1	Sheff Wed
Millwall	1 - 0	Sheff Wed
Southampton	3 - 1	Sheff Wed
West Brom	0 - 0	Sheff Wed
Charlton	2 - 1	Sheff Wed
Birmingham	2 - 2	Sheff Wed
Portsmouth	0 - 2	Sheff Wed
Wrexham	2 - 2	Sheff Wed
Leicester	2 - 1	Sheff Wed
Watford	1 - 1	Sheff Wed
Stoke	2 - 0	Sheff Wed
Blackburn	2 - 2	Sheff Wed
Cardiff	1 - 1	Sheff Wed
Norwich	2 - 3	Sheff Wed

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

7 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

13 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Sheff Wed	1 - 2	Millwall
A	Sheff Wed	0 - 4	Swansea
A	Sheff Wed	0 - 1	Blackburn
H	Sheff Wed	0 - 1	Wrexham
A	Sheff Wed	0 - 2	Bristol C
H	Sheff Wed	0 - 2	Birmingham
H	Sheff Wed	0 - 1	Portsmouth
A	Sheff Wed	0 - 3	QPR
A	Sheff Wed	0 - 3	Preston
H	Sheff Wed	0 - 0	Blackburn
H	Sheff Wed	2 - 2	Hull
A	Sheff Wed	1 - 3	Ipswich
H	Sheff Wed	0 - 3	Derby
A	Sheff Wed	1 - 1	Watford
H	Sheff Wed	2 - 3	Preston
A	Sheff Wed	0 - 1	Millwall
H	Sheff Wed	0 - 3	Sheff Utd
A	Sheff Wed	1 - 3	Southampton
H	Sheff Wed	1 - 1	Norwich
A	Sheff Wed	0 - 0	West Brom

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Sheff Wed have not lost to Derby in 5 consecutive away league meetings

Derby

Sheff Wed

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

18 / 20

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

2 / 20

DER

SHW

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
	1 - 2	Sheff Wed
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	3 - 3	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Derby	2 - 0
Derby	2 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Derby	3 - 2
Derby	3 - 0
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Derby	3 - 0
Derby	3 - 0
Derby	1 - 0
	0 - 2	Sheff Wed
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Draw	3 - 3	Draw
Derby	1 - 0
Derby	3 - 0
Draw	2 - 2	Draw

Sheff Wed

Derby

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

12 / 21

14 / 21

Clean sheets

7 / 21

9 / 21

DER

SHW

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sheff Wed
	0 - 3	Derby
Sheff Wed	4 - 2
Sheff Wed	1 - 0
Sheff Wed	1 - 0
	1 - 3	Derby
	1 - 2	Derby
Sheff Wed	2 - 0
Sheff Wed	2 - 1
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 1	Derby
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 1	Derby
	1 - 2	Derby
Sheff Wed	2 - 1
	1 - 3	Derby
	0 - 2	Derby
	0 - 1	Derby
	2 - 5	Derby
Draw	0 - 0	Draw

Goal Statistics

Derby County have been steady in attack of late, finding the net in 22 consecutive Championship games. Their PG of 1.7 against Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday suggests that run is likely to continue.

An absolutely dreadful PG of just 0.9 should cause concerns for Sheffield Wednesday fans, as should a 10 Championship matches run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

	Derby 8th	Sheff Wed 24th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.7 goals	0.9 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 19% 1 31% 2 26% 3 15% 4+ 9% There is a 81% probability that Derby will score 1 or more goals	0 39% 1 37% 2 17% 3 4+ There is a 76% probability of Sheff Wed scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-15 Derby have scored 15% fewer goals at home than predicted	-13 Sheff Wed have scored 13% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.1 average goals scored	0.9 average goals scored
	1.2 conceded	1.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season

55%

better

DER

SHW

view stats

Games scored	30		14
Failed to score	2		18
Scored first	18		8
Goals scored	47		19
Avg. goals scored	1.4		0.6
Avg. shots per game	7		6
Avg. shots per goal	5		11
Conversion rate for	20		9
Avg. XG for	1.1		0.9
KickOff rating		+55%

31%

better

DER

SHW

view stats

Games conceded	24		29
Clean sheets	8		3
Conceded first	14		22
Goals conceded	39		64
Avg. goals conceded	1.2		2
Avg. shots/game conceded	8		12
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		6
Conversion rate against	14%		17%
Avg. XG against	1.3		2.1
KickOff rating		+31%

Derby v Sheff Wed Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
32	10	6	8
M Clarke	P. Agyemang	J Ward	C Elder

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
M Clarke DEF	32	1	2	6 1
B Clark MID	32	3	2	4 -
P. Agyemang FWD	29	10	3	3 -
J Zetterström GLK	28			1 -
D Sanderson DEF	28	1		6 -
B Díaz FWD	28	3	3	4 -
C Elder DEF	27	1	5	8 -
A Weimann MID	25	1	3	1 -
J Ward MID	25	1	6	1 1
L Salvesen FWD	25	3	2	3 -
E Adams MID	23	1		7 -
R Brewster FWD	23	5	1	1 -
D Ozoh MID	20	1		6 -
S Langas DEF	19	2	1	2 -
K Jackson FWD	19			2 -
C Morris FWD	18	10		4 -
L Thompson MID	17	1		4 -
L Travis MID	14		1	7 1
C Forsyth DEF	11			2 -
M Johnston DEF	9			1 -
D Batth DEF	9			1 -
C Blackett-Taylor FWD	9		1	-
R Nyambe DEF	7			1 -
J Vickers GLK	3			-
R O'Donnell GLK	2			-
C Nelson DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
10	25	6	9
P. Agyemang	P. Agyemang	J Ward	J Ward

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
P. Agyemang FWD	10	25	3	2
C Morris FWD	10	15		2
R Brewster FWD	5	8	1	1
B Clark MID	3	6	2	3
B Díaz FWD	3	14	3	6
L Salvesen FWD	3	6	2	3
S Langas DEF	2	5	1	1
M Clarke DEF	1	1	2	3
D Sanderson DEF	1	2		1
C Elder DEF	1	3	5	7
A Weimann MID	1	5	3	4
J Ward MID	1	6	6	9
E Adams MID	1	1
D Ozoh MID	1	1		1
L Thompson MID	1	1
K Jackson FWD		4
L Travis MID			1	2
M Johnston DEF		1		1
C Blackett-Taylor FWD		2	1	1
R Nyambe DEF		1
C Nelson DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1389	60	181
M Clarke	E Adams	M Clarke

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
M Clarke DEF	1389	56	181
D Sanderson DEF	919	29	101
J Zetterström GLK	891		14
C Elder DEF	759	52	131
B Clark MID	726	52	124
J Ward MID	641	35	73
S Langas DEF	593	28	90
L Travis MID	497	32	63
E Adams MID	492	60	123
D Ozoh MID	484	30	64
B Díaz FWD	452	10	63
L Thompson MID	445	16	41
P. Agyemang FWD	383	7	164
C Morris FWD	382	13	152
C Forsyth DEF	371	16	39
R Brewster FWD	283	8	60
D Batth DEF	233	3	46
M Johnston DEF	181	13	18
A Weimann MID	156	8	19
L Salvesen FWD	100	5	32
J Vickers GLK	91		3
K Jackson FWD	86	3	21
R Nyambe DEF	74	6	14
R O'Donnell GLK	64
C Blackett-Taylor FWD	46	2	8
C Nelson DEF	4	2	4

Sheff Wed Championship squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
29	3	3	7
S Ingelsson	J Lowe	B Bannan	B Bannan

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
J Lowe FWD	32	3		4 -
L Palmer DEF	31		1	3 -
S Ingelsson MID	30	1		1 -
B Cadamarteri FWD	29	2		2 -
B Bannan MID	28	3	3	6 1
C McNeill FWD	28	3	1	1 -
D Iorfa DEF	24	1		6 -
G. Otegbayo DEF	23			2 -
Y Valery DEF	23		1	3 -
H Amass DEF	21	1	1	2 -
S Fusire DEF	21	1		4 -
M Lowe DEF	20		1	2 -
I Ugbo FWD	19			1 -
E Horvath GLK	14			1 1
J. Thornton MID	13			-
R. Johnson DEF	11			1 -
P Charles GLK	9		1	-
O Kobacki FWD	6			-
R Shipston MID	4			-
N Chalobah MID	3	1		1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
3	14	3	10
J Lowe	B Cadamarteri	B Bannan	B Bannan

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
J Lowe FWD	3	9		1
B Bannan MID	3	11	3	10
C McNeill FWD	3	8	1	3
B Cadamarteri FWD	2	14
S Ingelsson MID	1	8		3
D Iorfa DEF	1	3
H Amass DEF	1	3	1	3
S Fusire DEF	1	2		1
N Chalobah MID	1	2
L Palmer DEF		3	1	1
G. Otegbayo DEF		1
Y Valery DEF		7	1	1
M Lowe DEF			1	2
I Ugbo FWD		4		1
P Charles GLK			1	1
O Kobacki FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1689	64	159
B Bannan	H Amass	H Amass

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
B Bannan MID	1689	33	71
L Palmer DEF	939	42	88
M Lowe DEF	904	36	77
D Iorfa DEF	852	44	158
Y Valery DEF	740	42	141
H Amass DEF	722	64	159
S Ingelsson MID	698	47	123
G. Otegbayo DEF	622	22	80
J Lowe FWD	543	29	105
E Horvath GLK	461	2	7
S Fusire DEF	441	34	67
P Charles GLK	428		4
C McNeill FWD	421	26	59
B Cadamarteri FWD	270	17	107
J. Thornton MID	210	8	16
R. Johnson DEF	156	11	21
I Ugbo FWD	96	10	29
O Kobacki FWD	81	10	23
N Chalobah MID	31	1	1
R Shipston MID	13	1	1