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Hamburger SV v FC Union Berlin : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 14th Feb, 14:30 BST, Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV are in Bundesliga action on Saturday afternoon, as Merlin Polzin looks to get one over on Steffen Baumgart and his FC Union Berlin side at the Volksparkstadion. Stats drive the predictions below for seventeen markets, and switching between them will display bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and unique league tables. Odds are also provided. Click on the tabs below to see it all.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Bundesliga Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We do not expect to see a a bore-draw or a slim 1-0 win here, and instead are tipping over 1.5 goals. That means that Hamburg and Union Berlin will score a minimum of 2 between them during 90 minutes. It's a prediction based on each side's recent form stats, as well as historical records when they go head-to-head. We give it a probability of 76%. The bookies have it available at 1.35.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Hamburg are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 46% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.50.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Hamburg 46%	-	6/4
Draw 25%	-	9/4
Union Berlin 28%	-	15/8
Draw 1-1 12%	-	19/4
Hamburg 1-0 10%	-	6/1
Hamburg 2-1 9%	-	15/2
Hamburg 2-0 8%	-	9/1
Union Berlin 1-0 8%	-	13/2
Union Berlin 2-1 7%	-	17/2
Draw 0-0 7%	-	7/1
Draw 2-2 5%	-	11/1
Hamburg 3-1 5%	-	16/1
Union Berlin 2-0 4%	-	11/1
Hamburg 3-0 4%	-	18/1
Hamburg 3-2 3%	-	22/1
Union Berlin 3-1 3%	-	18/1
Union Berlin 3-2 2%	-	22/1
Hamburg 4-1 2%	-	33/1
Over 2.5 Goals 51%	-	21/20
Under 2.5 Goals 49%	-	7/10
Home 1st Goal 52%	-	19/20
Away 1st Goal 44%	-	11/10
No 1st Goal 4%	-	7/1
BTTS - Yes 54%	-	5/6
BTTS - No 46%	-	10/11
BTTS - Home Win 22%	-	19/5
BTTS - Draw 19%	-	16/5
BTTS - Away Win 14%	-	9/2
Home/draw 72%	-	2/5
Away/draw 54%	-	8/15
Home/away 75%	-	1/3
Over 1.5 Goals 76%	-	7/20
Under 1.5 Goals 24%	-	2/1
Over 3.5 Goals 29%	-	13/5
Under 3.5 Goals 71%	-	1/4
Over 4.5 Goals 14%	-	6/1
Under 4.5 Goals 86%	-	1/12
Over 5.5 Goals 6%	-	14/1
Under 5.5 Goals 94%	-	1/66
Over 0.5 Goals 93%	-	1/16
Under 0.5 Goals 7%	-	7/1
Home DNB 64%	-	8/11
Away DNB 46%	-	1/1
Hamburg win to nil 25%	-	-
Union Berlin win to nil 14%	-	-
Hamburg / Hamburg 20%	-	14/5
Hamburg / Union Berlin 3%	-	22/1
Hamburg / Draw 6%	-	11/1
Draw / Hamburg 13%	-	19/4
Draw / Union Berlin 12%	-	11/2
Draw / Draw 17%	-	18/5
Union Berlin / Hamburg 3%	-	22/1
Union Berlin / Union Berlin 18%	-	10/3
Union Berlin / Draw 6%	-	11/1

Win / draw / win Bundesliga table

Hamburg have played 19 matches so far this season and are in 13th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

13 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 6 games, drawn 6 and won 1. Hamburg have conceded 23 goals, scored 10, failed to score in 5 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Hamburg have played 10 games at home, winning 4, drawing 4 and losing 2 fixtures. They have scored 15 goals, conceded 11 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Union Berlin lay in 9th place on 24 points in the Bundesliga league table having played 20 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 9 games against teams below them in the table, winning 3, drawing 3 and losing 3 games. They have scored 10 goals and kept 3 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Union Berlin have conceded 10 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

Union Berlin have played 10 away games, winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 5 games. They have scored an average of 1 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.7 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Hamburg Union Berlin
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Bayern	20	16	3	1	56	51	d 2-2F	l 5-0A	d 2-2F	Mar 21
2	Dortmund	20	13	6	1	22	45	d 1-1A	Mar 21	l 0-3A	l 3-0A
3	Hoffenheim	20	13	3	4	20	42	Apr 25	l 4-1A	l 2-4A	l 3-1A
4	Stuttgart	20	12	3	5	11	39	w 2-1F	Apr 11	w 2-1F	d 1-1A
5	RB Leipzig	20	11	3	6	11	36	Mar 1	l 2-1A	w 3-1F	Apr 25
6	Leverkusen	19	11	2	6	12	35	Mar 4	May 16	Feb 21	l 2-0A
7	Freiburg	20	7	6	7	-2	27	May 9	l 2-1F	d 0-00-0	Mar 14
8	E.Frankfurt	20	7	6	7	-5	27	d 1-1F	May 2	Feb 6	w 3-4F
9	Union Berlin	20	6	6	8	-8	24	Feb 14	d 0-00-0	-	-
10	Köln	20	6	5	9	-3	23	Mar 14	l 4-1A	May 2	w 0-1F
11	Augsburg	20	6	4	10	-13	22	Apr 4	l 1-0A	May 16	d 1-1A
12	B. M'gladbach	20	5	6	9	-9	21	d 0-00-0	d 0-00-0	w 3-1F	Feb 28
13	Hamburg	19	4	7	8	-10	19	-	-	d 0-00-0	Feb 14
14	Wolfsburg	20	5	4	11	-14	19	l 0-1A	Mar 7	Apr 18	l 3-1A
15	W.Bremen	20	4	7	9	-16	19	w 3-2A	Apr 18	Mar 7	l 1-0A
16	Mainz	20	4	6	10	-10	18	w 4-0F	Feb 20	d 2-2A	May 9
17	St. Pauli	20	3	5	12	-16	14	l 0-2A	d 0-00-0	Apr 4	w 0-1F
18	Heidenheim	20	3	4	13	-26	13	w 2-1F	Feb 7	l 1-2F	Apr 11

	UEFA Champions League
	UEFA Europa League
	UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
	Relegation Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Hamburg	2 - 2	Bayern
Hamburg	0 - 0	B. M'gladbach
Hamburg	1 - 1	E.Frankfurt
Hamburg	3 - 2	W.Bremen
Hamburg	2 - 1	Stuttgart
Hamburg	1 - 1	Dortmund
Hamburg	0 - 1	Wolfsburg
Hamburg	4 - 0	Mainz
Hamburg	2 - 1	Heidenheim
Hamburg	0 - 2	St. Pauli
Hamburg	6 - 1	Ulm
Hamburg	1 - 2	Karlsruher
Hamburg	2 - 4	E. Braun
Hamburg	0 - 0	Elversberg
Hamburg	4 - 1	Dusseldorf
Hamburg	3 - 0	Kaiserslautern
Hamburg	2 - 2	Hannover
Hamburg	1 - 0	Köln
Hamburg	5 - 0	Greuther
Hamburg	2 - 2	Darmstadt

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Hamburg	2 - 2	Bayern
A	Hamburg	0 - 0	St. Pauli
H	Hamburg	0 - 0	B. M'gladbach
A	Hamburg	1 - 2	Freiburg
H	Hamburg	1 - 1	E.Frankfurt
A	Hamburg	1 - 4	Hoffenheim
H	Hamburg	3 - 2	W.Bremen
H	Hamburg	2 - 1	Stuttgart
A	Hamburg	0 - 1	Augsburg
H	Hamburg	1 - 1	Dortmund
A	Hamburg	1 - 4	Köln
H	Hamburg	0 - 1	Wolfsburg
A	Hamburg	1 - 2	RB Leipzig
H	Hamburg	4 - 0	Mainz
A	Hamburg	0 - 0	Union Berlin
H	Hamburg	2 - 1	Heidenheim
A	Hamburg	0 - 5	Bayern
H	Hamburg	0 - 2	St. Pauli
A	Hamburg	0 - 0	B. M'gladbach
A	Hamburg	2 - 3	Greuther

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Hoffenheim	3 - 1	Union Berlin
Stuttgart	1 - 1	Union Berlin
Augsburg	1 - 1	Union Berlin
Köln	0 - 1	Union Berlin
Wolfsburg	3 - 1	Union Berlin
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Union Berlin
W.Bremen	1 - 0	Union Berlin
Leverkusen	2 - 0	Union Berlin
E.Frankfurt	3 - 4	Union Berlin
Dortmund	3 - 0	Union Berlin
Augsburg	1 - 2	Union Berlin
VfL Bochum	1 - 1	Union Berlin
Leverkusen	0 - 0	Union Berlin
Freiburg	1 - 2	Union Berlin
E.Frankfurt	1 - 2	Union Berlin
Dortmund	6 - 0	Union Berlin
Hoffenheim	0 - 4	Union Berlin
St. Pauli	3 - 0	Union Berlin
Heidenheim	2 - 0	Union Berlin
W.Bremen	4 - 1	Union Berlin

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Union Berlin	1 - 3	Hoffenheim
H	Union Berlin	0 - 3	Dortmund
A	Union Berlin	1 - 1	Stuttgart
A	Union Berlin	1 - 1	Augsburg
H	Union Berlin	2 - 2	Mainz
A	Union Berlin	1 - 0	Köln
H	Union Berlin	3 - 1	RB Leipzig
A	Union Berlin	1 - 3	Wolfsburg
H	Union Berlin	1 - 2	Heidenheim
A	Union Berlin	1 - 0	St. Pauli
H	Union Berlin	2 - 2	Bayern
H	Union Berlin	0 - 0	Freiburg
A	Union Berlin	0 - 1	W.Bremen
H	Union Berlin	3 - 1	B. M'gladbach
A	Union Berlin	0 - 2	Leverkusen
H	Union Berlin	0 - 0	Hamburg
A	Union Berlin	4 - 3	E.Frankfurt
H	Union Berlin	2 - 4	Hoffenheim
A	Union Berlin	0 - 3	Dortmund
H	Union Berlin	2 - 1	Stuttgart

Goal Statistics

Hamburger SV's fans will be hoping for goals on Saturday afternoon, not least because FC Union Berlin have conceded in each of their last 8 Bundesliga games. A PG of 1.6 for M. Polzin's side suggests that run should continue.

	Hamburg 13th	Union Berlin 8th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.6 goals	1.2 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 21% 1 33% 2 26% 3 13% 4+ There is a 79% probability that Hamburg will score 1 or more goals	0 31% 1 36% 2 21% 3 8% 4+ There is a 67% probability that Union Berlin will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+13 Hamburg have scored 13% more goals at home than predicted	-10 Union Berlin’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	2.1 average goals scored	1.1 average goals scored
	1.2 conceded	1.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Bundesliga - 2025/2025 season

HSV

FCU

20%

better

view stats

Games scored	11		14
Failed to score	8		6
Scored first	6		8
Goals scored	19		25
Avg. goals scored	1		1.3
Avg. shots per game	10		10
Avg. shots per goal	10		8
Conversion rate for	10		13
Avg. XG for	1.2		1.4
KickOff rating		+20%

13%

better

HSV

FCU

view stats

Games conceded	14		16
Clean sheets	5		4
Conceded first	9		10
Goals conceded	29		33
Avg. goals conceded	1.5		1.7
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		5
Conversion rate against	15%		18%
Avg. XG against	1.4		1.4
KickOff rating		+13%

Hamburg v Union Berlin Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

Hamburg Bundesliga squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
19	4	4	7
D Fernandes	R Philippe	M Muheim	N Remberg

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
D Fernandes GLK	19			3 -
M Muheim DEF	19		4	3 -
R Königsdörffer FWD	19	1	2	1 -
N Remberg MID	18		1	7 -
R Philippe FWD	18	4		2 -
L. Vušković DEF	17	4		4 -
N Capaldo MID	17		1	5 -
G Gocholeishvili DEF	15		1	2 1
A Lokonga MID	15	4		2 -
F Vieira MID	14	2	3	2 2
M Dompé FWD	14	2		-
D Elfadli DEF	13			3 1
W Mikelbrencis DEF	13		1	-
R Glatzel FWD	12	1		-
F. Uri Baldé FWD	11		1	-
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD	11		1	2 1
J Torunarigha DEF	10			1 -
G Ramos DEF	8			-
Y Poulsen FWD	8	1		3 -
B Jatta FWD	7			-
W Omari DEF	6			-
I Pherai MID	6			1 1
A. Souhmahoro DEF	4			1 -
J Meffert MID	4			-
E Sahiti FWD	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	13	4	6
R Philippe	R Königsdörffer	M Muheim	M Dompé

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Philippe FWD	4	12		2
L. Vušković DEF	4	6
A Lokonga MID	4	7
F Vieira MID	2	7	3	4
M Dompé FWD	2	9		6
R Königsdörffer FWD	1	13	2	1
R Glatzel FWD	1	3
Y Poulsen FWD	1	3
M Muheim DEF		5	4	4
N Remberg MID		6	1	1
N Capaldo MID		4	1	2
G Gocholeishvili DEF		2	1	1
D Elfadli DEF		1
W Mikelbrencis DEF		4	1	2
F. Uri Baldé FWD		3	1	2
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD		2	1	2
J Torunarigha DEF		1
G Ramos DEF		1
B Jatta FWD		3

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1035	46	128
L. Vušković	N Capaldo	L. Vušković

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L. Vušković DEF	1035	15	128
D Fernandes GLK	961		7
N Remberg MID	807	38	105
M Muheim DEF	803	41	98
J Torunarigha DEF	551	18	57
D Elfadli DEF	533	18	43
N Capaldo MID	515	46	105
A Lokonga MID	421	21	58
F Vieira MID	369	7	39
M Dompé FWD	247	6	32
W Omari DEF	238	3	10
R Königsdörffer FWD	213	1	47
G Gocholeishvili DEF	191	15	46
R Philippe FWD	165	15	36
W Mikelbrencis DEF	163	10	19
B Jatta FWD	98	6	14
J Meffert MID	81	4	7
Y Poulsen FWD	72	4	26
F. Uri Baldé FWD	71	7	21
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD	68	9	23
A. Souhmahoro DEF	60	1	1
G Ramos DEF	45		6
R Glatzel FWD	38		10
E Sahiti FWD	31		5
I Pherai MID	23	2	6

Union Berlin Bundesliga squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
20	5	8	6
F Rönnow	I Ansah	A Ilić	C Trimmel

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Rönnow GLK	20			1 -
L Querfeld DEF	20			3 -
D Doekhi DEF	20	4		3 -
I Ansah FWD	20	5	2	-
R Khedira MID	19	4		5 -
O Burke FWD	19	4		2 -
A Ilić FWD	19		8	4 -
D Köhn DEF	18		1	2 1
J Haberer MID	18		1	5 -
A Kemlein MID	18			2 -
W Jeong MID	18	2	1	-
C Trimmel DEF	17		2	6 -
D Leite DEF	16			2 -
A Schäfer MID	16	1		1 -
T Rothe DEF	12	1		1 1
T Skarke FWD	12	1		-
A Kral MID	11			1 -
L. Burcu FWD	7			1 -
J Juranovic DEF	5			1 -
S Nsoki DEF	5	1	1	1 -
R Skov MID	3			-
M Ljubicic FWD	2	2		-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	10	8	6
I Ansah	O Burke	A Ilić	C Trimmel

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
I Ansah FWD	5	8	2	1
D Doekhi DEF	4	5
R Khedira MID	4	8		2
O Burke FWD	4	10		1
W Jeong MID	2	5	1
M Ljubicic FWD	2	2
A Schäfer MID	1	4
T Rothe DEF	1	3		1
T Skarke FWD	1	5
S Nsoki DEF	1	1	1
L Querfeld DEF		6		3
A Ilić FWD		9	8	5
D Köhn DEF		2	1	4
J Haberer MID		1	1	2
A Kemlein MID		1		1
C Trimmel DEF			2	6
D Leite DEF		1
A Kral MID		1
L. Burcu FWD		1
J Juranovic DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
821	50	139
L Querfeld	R Khedira	L Querfeld

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Querfeld DEF	821	33	139
D Doekhi DEF	694	33	137
D Leite DEF	655	20	78
F Rönnow GLK	633	1	9
A Kemlein MID	546	27	64
R Khedira MID	405	50	81
J Haberer MID	403	22	59
C Trimmel DEF	368	20	33
D Köhn DEF	311	19	40
A Ilić FWD	241	3	104
A Schäfer MID	233	23	55
T Rothe DEF	208	11	35
W Jeong MID	206	12	41
I Ansah FWD	202	9	66
O Burke FWD	178	7	35
T Skarke FWD	91	3	10
S Nsoki DEF	78	4	11
L. Burcu FWD	73	4	17
J Juranovic DEF	72	3	6
A Kral MID	68	4	16
R Skov MID	62	6	13
M Ljubicic FWD	5		2