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Stade Brestois 29 v Marseille : Ligue 1 match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 20th Feb, 19:45 BST, Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest

Eric Roy welcomes Roberto De Zerbi to the Stade Francis-Le Ble on Friday evening, as their Stade Brestois 29 and Marseille sides do battle in the Ligue 1. Statistics drive the predictions below for all the markets, and flipping between them shows bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and much more besides. Odds from leading bookmakers are also provided. Hit the tabs below to find out more.


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Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We're ruling out a bore-draw or a sneaky 1-0 win here, and instead we're predicting over 1.5 goals. That means that Brest and Marseille will score at least 2 between them during the standard 90 mins. This is based on each side's recent form stats, as well as past records of their head-to-head clashes. We give it a probability of 76%. Bookmakers have it at 1.22.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 44% chance of Marseille coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Brest
32%
4.20-
Draw
25%
3.70-
Marseille
44%
1.80-
Draw 1-1
11%
7.50-
Marseille 2-1
9%
8.50-
Marseille 1-0
9%
8.50-
Brest 2-1
8%
15.00-
Brest 1-0
7%
15.00-
Marseille 2-0
7%
9.50-
Draw 2-2
6%
13.00-
Draw 0-0
5%
13.00-
Marseille 3-1
5%
13.00-
Brest 2-0
5%
23.00-
Marseille 3-0
4%
15.00-
Brest 3-1
3%
34.00-
Marseille 3-2
3%
21.00-
Brest 3-2
3%
34.00-
Brest 3-0
2%
41.00-
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
1.67-
Under 2.5 Goals
45%
2.20-
Home 1st Goal
47%
2.40-
Away 1st Goal
50%
1.62-
No 1st Goal
3%
13.00-
BTTS - Yes
58%
1.67-
BTTS - No
42%
2.10-
BTTS - Home Win
17%
7.00-
BTTS - Draw
19%
4.50-
BTTS - Away Win
22%
3.40-
Home/draw
56%
1.95-
Away/draw
68%
1.22-
Home/away
75%
1.29-
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
1.22-
Under 1.5 Goals
21%
4.33-
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
2.75-
Under 3.5 Goals
67%
1.44-
Over 4.5 Goals
17%
5.00-
Under 4.5 Goals
83%
1.17-
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
10.00-
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
1.06-
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1.04-
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
13.00-
Home DNB
49%
3.25-
Away DNB
61%
1.33-
Brest win to nil
15%
8.00-
Marseille win to nil
21%
3.40-
Brest / Brest
12%
7.00-
Brest / Marseille
4%
21.00-
Brest / Draw
6%
15.00-
Draw / Brest
9%
9.00-
Draw / Marseille
17%
5.00-
Draw / Draw
14%
6.00-
Marseille / Brest
3%
29.00-
Marseille / Marseille
30%
2.75-
Marseille / Draw
6%
13.00-
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Win / draw / win Ligue 1 table

Brest have played 21 matches so far this season and are in 12th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

14 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 7 games, drawn 3 and won 4. Brest have conceded 25 goals, scored 16, failed to score in 5 matches and kept 4 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Brest have played 11 games at home, winning 5, drawing 3 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 16 goals, conceded 13 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and failed to score 4 times in home league games.

Marseille lay in 4th place on 39 points in the Ligue 1 league table having played 21 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 16 games against teams below them in the table, winning 10, drawing 3 and losing 3 games. They have scored 41 goals and kept 5 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Marseille have conceded 18 goals and have failed to score in 3 matches.

Away league performance

Marseille have played 11 away games, winning 5, drawing 1 and losing 5 games. They have scored an average of 1.7 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.5 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Brest
Marseille
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
PSG2116323251 
l
 
0-3A
May 9
w
 
1-0F
l
 
5-0A
2
Lens2116142049 
Apr 26
l
 
3-1F
w
 
3-1F
l
 
2-1F
3
Lyon2113351442 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-1A
Mar 1
l
 
1-0A
4
Marseille2112361939 
Feb 20
l
 
3-0A
-
-
5
Lille211038433 
d
 
3-3A
Feb 14
Mar 22
l
 
1-0A
6
Rennes21876-331 
Apr 5
l
 
3-1F
May 16
l
 
1-0A
7
Strasbourg21939730 
Apr 12
w
 
1-2A
Feb 14
w
 
1-2A
8
Toulouse21867730 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-0A
d
 
2-2A
Mar 7
9
Angers21858-329 
May 16
w
 
0-2F
d
 
2-2A
w
 
2-5F
10
Monaco21849-128 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 15
w
 
1-0F
Apr 5
11
Lorient21777-628 
w
 
2-0F
d
 
3-3A
w
 
4-0F
Apr 19
12
Brest21759-526 
-
-
w
 
3-0F
Feb 20
13
Le Havre21588-823 
Mar 8
l
 
1-0A
w
 
6-2A
May 9
14
Nice216510-1123 
w
 
4-1F
d
 
2-2F
Apr 26
w
 
1-5F
15
Paris FC21579-822 
l
 
1-2A
May 3
w
 
5-2F
d
 
2-2F
16
Auxerre213513-1514 
w
 
2-0F
Mar 22
Mar 15
w
 
0-1F
17
Nantes213513-1814 
d
 
0-00-0
Apr 19
l
 
0-2A
May 3
18
Metz213414-2513 
w
 
3-2F
Mar 1
Apr 12
w
 
0-3F
Win / draw / win form
Brest 11TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Brest2 - 0Lorient
Brest0 - 2Toulouse
Brest2 - 0Auxerre
Brest1 - 0Monaco
Brest3 - 2Metz
Brest0 - 0Lyon
Brest0 - 3PSG
Brest0 - 0Nantes
Brest4 - 1Nice
Brest1 - 2Paris FC
Brest3 - 3Lille
Brest2 - 0Lille
Brest1 - 0Montpellier
Brest1 - 3Lens
Brest2 - 1Monaco
Brest0 - 0Reims
Brest2 - 0Angers
Brest2 - 2Auxerre
Brest2 - 5PSG
Brest2 - 1Lyon
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
7
D
4
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HBrest2 - 0Lorient
ABrest2 - 2Nice
HBrest0 - 2Toulouse
ABrest1 - 2Lyon
HBrest2 - 0Auxerre
ABrest1 - 3Rennes
HBrest1 - 0Monaco
ABrest2 - 1Strasbourg
HBrest3 - 2Metz
ABrest0 - 3Marseille
HBrest0 - 0Lyon
ABrest0 - 1Le Havre
HBrest0 - 3PSG
ABrest3 - 3Lorient
HBrest0 - 0Nantes
ABrest2 - 0Angers
HBrest4 - 1Nice
HBrest1 - 2Paris FC
ABrest1 - 3Lens
ABrest0 - 2Toulouse
Marseille 3RD
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
8
D
2
Lost
10
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
PSG5 - 0Marseille
Paris FC2 - 2Marseille
Angers2 - 5Marseille
Lille1 - 0Marseille
Nice1 - 5Marseille
Auxerre0 - 1Marseille
Lens2 - 1Marseille
Metz0 - 3Marseille
Strasbourg1 - 2Marseille
Lyon1 - 0Marseille
Rennes1 - 0Marseille
Le Havre1 - 3Marseille
Lille1 - 1Marseille
Monaco3 - 0Marseille
Reims3 - 1Marseille
PSG3 - 1Marseille
Auxerre3 - 0Marseille
Angers0 - 2Marseille
Nice2 - 0Marseille
Rennes1 - 2Marseille
Goals: Scored
46
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
12
D
3
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AMarseille0 - 5PSG
AMarseille2 - 2Paris FC
HMarseille3 - 1Lens
AMarseille5 - 2Angers
HMarseille0 - 2Nantes
HMarseille1 - 0Monaco
AMarseille0 - 1Lille
HMarseille2 - 2Toulouse
AMarseille5 - 1Nice
HMarseille3 - 0Brest
AMarseille1 - 0Auxerre
HMarseille2 - 2Angers
AMarseille1 - 2Lens
HMarseille6 - 2Le Havre
AMarseille3 - 0Metz
AMarseille2 - 1Strasbourg
HMarseille1 - 0PSG
HMarseille4 - 0Lorient
AMarseille0 - 1Lyon
HMarseille5 - 2Paris FC
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Marseille have beaten Brest in 3 consecutive league meetings
League games at Brest since 2020
Brest
Marseille
Goals: Scored
6
13
Games: Scored
5 / 5
4 / 5
Clean sheets
1 / 5
0 / 5
SBR
1
D
1
MAR
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Brest
1 - 5Marseille
Brest1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 4Marseille
2 - 3Marseille
League games at Marseille since 2019
Marseille
Brest
Goals: Scored
16
7
Games: Scored
7 / 7
5 / 7
Clean sheets
2 / 7
0 / 7
SBR
2
MAR
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Marseille
Marseille3 - 0
Marseille4 - 1
Marseille2 - 0
1 - 2Brest
1 - 2Brest
Marseille3 - 1
Marseille2 - 1
Goal Statistics

Goals have been difficult to come by for Stade Brestois 29 of late. It has been 5 Ligue 1 matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.3 suggests they'll struggle to end that run on Friday evening against Marseille.

Brest 11th Marseille 3rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 62% probability that Brest will score no more than 1 goal
0
20%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
8%
There is a 80% probability that Marseille will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-6
Brest’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-8
Marseille’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.5
average goals scored
1.5
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Ligue 1 - 2025/2026 season
Brest
PG (predicted goals)
Marseille
1.3
1.6
Attack rating
SBR
MAR
28%
better
view stats
Games scored14
16
Failed to score7
4
Scored first9
12
Goals scored28
46
Avg. goals scored1.3
2.2
Avg. shots per game9
11
Avg. shots per goal7
5
Conversion rate for15
21
Avg. XG for1.4
1.8
KickOff rating
+28%
Defence rating
SBR
MAR
13%
better
view stats
Games conceded15
14
Clean sheets6
6
Conceded first10
8
Goals conceded33
22
Avg. goals conceded1.6
1
Avg. shots/game conceded9
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
6
Conversion rate against18%
16%
Avg. XG against1.5
1
KickOff rating
+13%

Brest v Marseille Ligue 1 lLine ups will show here when available.

Brest Ligue 1 squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
20767
K LalaR CastilloL AjorqueL Ajorque
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
K Lala DEF201
3
-
J Chotard MID202
1
-
H Magnetti MID201
4
-
L Ajorque FWD2036
6
1
B Chardonnet DEF192
3
-
R Castillo FWD1972
1
1
P. Mboup FWD181
5
-
K Doumbia MID1652
5
-
D Guindo DEF15
3
-
B Locko DEF151
-
J Ebimbe MID152
1
-
R Lascary FWD1531
2
-
L Tousart MID13
-
M Baldé FWD1322
-
G Coudert GLK12
-
S Coulibaly DEF12
3
-
R Majecki GLK10
1
M Diaz DEF10
-
H. Makalou MID10
-
T. Zogbe DEF5
-
J Cardinal DEF51
1
-
S. Diop FWD2
-
R. Le Guen DEF1
-
J. Bourgault DEF1
-
Marseille Ligue 1 squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
181354
M Greenwood M Greenwood P AubameyangM Murillo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Greenwood  FWD20134
1
-
P Höjbjerg MID1923
2
-
T Weah FWD1822
1
-
I Paixão FWD1842
1
-
P Aubameyang FWD1865
1
-
G Rulli GLK17
2
-
B Pavard DEF1612
3
-
Emerson DEF163
2
-
M Murillo DEF1621
4
-
L Balerdi DEF161
4
-
B Nadir MID164
3
1
M O'Riley MID1512
2
-
A Gomes MID143
4
-
R. Vaz FWD1442
2
-
N Aguerd DEF131
2
-
A Vermeeren MID121
1
1
A Gouiri FWD1141
-
C Egan-Riley DEF9
1
D. Bakola MID8
-
F Medina DEF7
1
-
G Kondogbia MID6
2
-
H Traorè FWD511
1
-
J Lange GLK4
-
U Garcia DEF4
1
1
P Lirola DEF3
-
N Maupay FWD1
-