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FC St. Pauli v Hamburger SV : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 23rd Jan, 19:30 BST, Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

Alexander Blessin and Merlin Polzin pit their wits in the Bundesliga on Friday evening, as FC St. Pauli face Hamburger SV at the Millerntor-Stadion. All the odds are delivered directly from the UK's leading bookmakers, while predictions are algorithmically generated from statistics over a 20-game period. We focus especially on Bundesliga match data, including head-to-head performance. Click the tabs below to explore it all.

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Predictions	Bet365	Coral
St. Pauli 42%	-	-
Draw 25%	-	-
Hamburg 33%	-	-
Draw 1-1 11%	-	-
St. Pauli 2-1 9%	-	-
St. Pauli 1-0 8%	-	-
Hamburg 2-1 8%	-	-
Hamburg 1-0 7%	-	-
St. Pauli 2-0 7%	-	-
Draw 2-2 6%	-	-
Draw 0-0 5%	-	-
Hamburg 2-0 5%	-	-
St. Pauli 3-1 5%	-	-
Hamburg 3-1 4%	-	-
St. Pauli 3-0 3%	-	-
St. Pauli 3-2 3%	-	-
Hamburg 3-2 3%	-	-
Hamburg 3-0 2%	-	-
Over 2.5 Goals 56%	-	-
Under 2.5 Goals 44%	-	-
Home 1st Goal 50%	-	-
Away 1st Goal 47%	-	-
No 1st Goal 3%	-	-
BTTS - Yes 59%	-	-
BTTS - No 41%	-	-
BTTS - Home Win 22%	-	-
BTTS - Draw 19%	-	-
BTTS - Away Win 18%	-	-
Home/draw 67%	-	-
Away/draw 58%	-	-
Home/away 76%	-	-
Over 1.5 Goals 79%	-	-
Under 1.5 Goals 21%	-	-
Over 3.5 Goals 34%	-	-
Under 3.5 Goals 66%	-	-
Over 4.5 Goals 17%	-	-
Under 4.5 Goals 83%	-	-
Over 5.5 Goals 8%	-	-
Under 5.5 Goals 92%	-	-
Over 0.5 Goals 95%	-	-
Under 0.5 Goals 5%	-	-
Home DNB 59%	-	-
Away DNB 50%	-	-
St. Pauli win to nil 20%	-	-
Hamburg win to nil 16%	-	-

Win / draw / win Bundesliga table

St. Pauli have played 15 matches so far this season and are in 16th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

13 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 9 games, drawn 2 and won 2. St. Pauli have conceded 25 goals, scored 11, failed to score in 6 matches and kept 1 clean sheet.

Home league performance

St. Pauli have played 7 games at home, winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 4 fixtures. They have scored 8 goals, conceded 15 goals, kept 0 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Hamburg lay in 13th place on 16 points in the Bundesliga league table having played 16 matches. Hamburg are having a poor run against away teams, having not won a match so far this season. They have also not scored in 4 of those games.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 5 games against teams below them in the table, winning 2, drawing 0 and losing 3 games. They have scored 6 goals and kept 1 clean sheet against lower placed opposition. Hamburg have conceded 5 goals and have failed to score in 3 matches.

Away league performance

Hamburg have played 8 away games, winning 0, drawing 2 and losing 6 games. They have scored an average of 0.5 goals per away game and conceded an average 2.3 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	St. Pauli Hamburg
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Bayern	15	13	2	0	44	41	Apr 11	l 3-1F	Jan 31	l 5-0A
2	Dortmund	16	9	6	1	14	33	d 3-3A	Jan 17	d 1-1A	Mar 21
3	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	11	29	-	May 9	Mar 1	l 2-1A
4	Leverkusen	16	9	2	5	10	29	l 1-2A	Feb 14	Jan 13	May 16
5	Stuttgart	16	9	2	5	6	29	Feb 7	l 2-0A	w 2-1F	Apr 11
6	Hoffenheim	15	8	3	4	9	27	l 0-3A	Feb 28	Apr 25	l 4-1A
7	E.Frankfurt	16	7	5	4	0	26	Mar 7	l 2-0A	d 1-1F	May 2
8	Freiburg	16	6	5	5	0	23	Mar 21	l 2-1A	May 9	l 2-1F
9	Union Berlin	16	6	4	6	-3	22	l 0-1A	Apr 4	Feb 14	d 0-00-0
10	Köln	16	4	5	7	-2	17	Apr 18	d 1-1A	Mar 14	l 4-1A
11	W.Bremen	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Feb 22	l 1-0A	w 3-2A	Apr 18
12	B. M'gladbach	15	4	4	7	-6	16	l 0-4A	Mar 14	Jan 17	d 0-00-0
13	Hamburg	16	4	4	8	-10	16	Jan 23	w 0-2F	-	-
14	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-5	15	May 16	Jan 14	l 0-1A	Mar 7
15	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-11	14	w 2-1A	Jan 31	Apr 4	l 1-0A
16	St. Pauli	15	3	3	9	-13	12	-	-	l 0-2A	Jan 23
17	Heidenheim	16	3	3	10	-21	12	w 2-1F	Apr 25	w 2-1F	Feb 7
18	Mainz	16	1	6	9	-13	9	May 2	d 0-00-0	w 4-0F	Feb 20

	UEFA Champions League
	UEFA Europa League
	UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
	Relegation Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
St. Pauli	2 - 1	Heidenheim
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Union Berlin
St. Pauli	0 - 4	B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli	0 - 3	Hoffenheim
St. Pauli	1 - 2	Leverkusen
St. Pauli	2 - 1	Augsburg
St. Pauli	3 - 3	Dortmund
St. Pauli	0 - 2	VfL Bochum
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Stuttgart
St. Pauli	1 - 1	Leverkusen
St. Pauli	1 - 1	B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli	1 - 0	Hoffenheim
St. Pauli	0 - 2	Dortmund
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Freiburg
St. Pauli	1 - 1	Augsburg
St. Pauli	3 - 0	Union Berlin
St. Pauli	0 - 1	E.Frankfurt
St. Pauli	0 - 2	W.Bremen
St. Pauli	3 - 1	Holstein
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Bayern

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	St. Pauli	0 - 0	Mainz
H	St. Pauli	2 - 1	Heidenheim
A	St. Pauli	1 - 1	Köln
A	St. Pauli	1 - 3	Bayern
H	St. Pauli	0 - 1	Union Berlin
A	St. Pauli	1 - 2	Freiburg
H	St. Pauli	0 - 4	B. M'gladbach
A	St. Pauli	0 - 2	E.Frankfurt
H	St. Pauli	0 - 3	Hoffenheim
A	St. Pauli	0 - 1	W.Bremen
H	St. Pauli	1 - 2	Leverkusen
A	St. Pauli	0 - 2	Stuttgart
H	St. Pauli	2 - 1	Augsburg
A	St. Pauli	2 - 0	Hamburg
H	St. Pauli	3 - 3	Dortmund
H	St. Pauli	0 - 2	VfL Bochum
A	St. Pauli	2 - 2	E.Frankfurt
H	St. Pauli	0 - 1	Stuttgart
A	St. Pauli	0 - 0	W.Bremen
H	St. Pauli	1 - 1	Leverkusen

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Hoffenheim	4 - 1	Hamburg
Augsburg	1 - 0	Hamburg
Köln	4 - 1	Hamburg
RB Leipzig	2 - 1	Hamburg
Union Berlin	0 - 0	Hamburg
Bayern	5 - 0	Hamburg
B. M'gladbach	0 - 0	Hamburg
Greuther	3 - 2	Hamburg
Darmstadt	0 - 4	Hamburg
Schalke	2 - 2	Hamburg
Nurnberg	0 - 3	Hamburg
Magdeburg	0 - 3	Hamburg
Paderborn	2 - 0	Hamburg
Regensburg	1 - 1	Hamburg
Preussen Munster	1 - 2	Hamburg
H.Berlin	2 - 3	Hamburg
Ulm	1 - 1	Hamburg
Karlsruher	1 - 3	Hamburg
E. Braun	3 - 1	Hamburg
Elversberg	4 - 2	Hamburg

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Hamburg	1 - 1	E.Frankfurt
A	Hamburg	1 - 4	Hoffenheim
H	Hamburg	3 - 2	W.Bremen
H	Hamburg	2 - 1	Stuttgart
A	Hamburg	0 - 1	Augsburg
H	Hamburg	1 - 1	Dortmund
A	Hamburg	1 - 4	Köln
H	Hamburg	0 - 1	Wolfsburg
A	Hamburg	1 - 2	RB Leipzig
H	Hamburg	4 - 0	Mainz
A	Hamburg	0 - 0	Union Berlin
H	Hamburg	2 - 1	Heidenheim
A	Hamburg	0 - 5	Bayern
H	Hamburg	0 - 2	St. Pauli
A	Hamburg	0 - 0	B. M'gladbach
A	Hamburg	2 - 3	Greuther
H	Hamburg	6 - 1	Ulm
A	Hamburg	4 - 0	Darmstadt
H	Hamburg	1 - 2	Karlsruher
A	Hamburg	2 - 2	Schalke

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

St. Pauli have not lost to Hamburg in 5 consecutive home league meetings

St. Pauli

Hamburg

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 6

3 / 6

Clean sheets

3 / 6

1 / 6

STP

HSV

FIXTURE HISTORY AT St. Pauli
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
St. Pauli	3 - 0
St. Pauli	3 - 2
St. Pauli	1 - 0
St. Pauli	2 - 0
	0 - 4	Hamburg

Hamburg

St. Pauli

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

4 / 7

5 / 7

Clean sheets

2 / 7

3 / 7

STP

HSV

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Hamburg
	0 - 2	St. Pauli
Hamburg	1 - 0
Hamburg	4 - 3
Hamburg	2 - 1
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	0 - 2	St. Pauli
Draw	0 - 0	Draw

Goal Statistics

FC St. Pauli's fans will be hoping for goals on Friday evening, not least because Hamburger SV have conceded in each of their last 9 Bundesliga outings. A PG of 1.6 for A. Blessin's side suggests that run should continue.

	St. Pauli 16th	Hamburg 13th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.6 goals	1.4 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 21% 1 33% 2 26% 3 13% 4+ 7% There is a 79% probability that St. Pauli will score 1 or more goals	0 26% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 61% probability that Hamburg will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-31 St. Pauli have scored 31% fewer goals at home than predicted	-2 Hamburg’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	0.9 average goals scored	1.5 average goals scored
	1.5 conceded	1.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Bundesliga - 2025/2025 season

STP

HSV

10%

better

view stats

Games scored	8		9
Failed to score	7		6
Scored first	3		4
Goals scored	13		16
Avg. goals scored	0.9		1.1
Avg. shots per game	7		9
Avg. shots per goal	8		9
Conversion rate for	12		11
Avg. XG for	0.9		1.3
KickOff rating		+10%

STP

HSV

13%

better

view stats

Games conceded	13		12
Clean sheets	2		3
Conceded first	11		9
Goals conceded	26		25
Avg. goals conceded	1.7		1.7
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	5		6
Conversion rate against	20%		16%
Avg. XG against	1.6		1.5
KickOff rating		+13%

St. Pauli v Hamburg Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

St. Pauli Bundesliga squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
15	4	3	3
N Vasilj	A Hountondji	J Fujita	J Fujita

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
N Vasilj GLK	15			-
L. Oppie DEF	15	1		-
J Fujita MID	15		3	3 -
M Lage FWD	15		2	2 -
E Smith DEF	14	1		2 1
H Wahl DEF	14	1		-
J Sands MID	14			3 -
C Metcalfe MID	14		1	-
D Sinani MID	14	2	2	2 -
A Pyrka DEF	12			3 -
A Hountondji FWD	12	4		1 -
M Kaars FWD	12	2		-
A. Ceesay FWD	10			2 -
A Dzwigala DEF	9	1		3 -
K Mets DEF	9			1 -
M Saliakas DEF	8		1	2 -
L Ritzka DEF	8			-
J Irvine MID	8			-
O Afolayan FWD	7			1 -
R Jade-Jones FWD	3	1		1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	10	3	3
A Hountondji	M Lage	J Fujita	J Fujita

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A Hountondji FWD	4	7
D Sinani MID	2	6	2	3
M Kaars FWD	2	5
L. Oppie DEF	1	3		2
E Smith DEF	1	3
H Wahl DEF	1	3
A Dzwigala DEF	1	1
R Jade-Jones FWD	1	1
J Fujita MID		1	3	3
M Lage FWD		10	2	3
J Sands MID		3		1
C Metcalfe MID		2	1	2
A Pyrka DEF		1		2
A. Ceesay FWD		1
M Saliakas DEF		2	1
J Irvine MID		1		1
O Afolayan FWD		2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
854	31	94
E Smith	J Sands	J Sands

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
E Smith DEF	854	19	54
H Wahl DEF	843	20	54
J Fujita MID	666	30	59
J Sands MID	528	31	94
L. Oppie DEF	501	20	39
N Vasilj GLK	495	1	6
D Sinani MID	472	12	35
K Mets DEF	456	10	28
A Pyrka DEF	356	13	29
A Dzwigala DEF	314	23	38
M Lage FWD	293	22	67
M Saliakas DEF	288	13	23
J Irvine MID	171	8	35
M Kaars FWD	159	1	13
L Ritzka DEF	159	11	19
C Metcalfe MID	121	9	17
A Hountondji FWD	91	6	23
O Afolayan FWD	64	4	15
A. Ceesay FWD	37	1	16
R Jade-Jones FWD	11		6

Hamburg Bundesliga squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
15	4	3	5
D Fernandes	R Philippe	M Muheim	N Remberg

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
D Fernandes GLK	15			1 -
M Muheim DEF	15		3	2 -
R Philippe FWD	15	4		2 -
R Königsdörffer FWD	15	1	2	1 -
N Remberg MID	14		1	5 -
L. Vušković DEF	13	2		3 -
N Capaldo MID	13		1	4 -
W Mikelbrencis DEF	12			-
G Gocholeishvili DEF	12		1	1 1
A Lokonga MID	12	4		1 -
D Elfadli DEF	11			2 -
M Dompé FWD	11	2		-
F Vieira MID	10	1	3	2 2
F. Uri Baldé FWD	10		1	-
R Glatzel FWD	9	1		-
Y Poulsen FWD	8	1		3 -
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD	8		1	1 1
J Torunarigha DEF	7			-
G Ramos DEF	6			-
W Omari DEF	5			-
I Pherai MID	5			1 1
A. Souhmahoro DEF	4			1 -
J Meffert MID	4			-
B Jatta FWD	3			-
E Sahiti FWD	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	12	3	5
R Philippe	R Philippe	M Muheim	M Dompé

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Philippe FWD	4	12		1
A Lokonga MID	4	7
L. Vušković DEF	2	2
M Dompé FWD	2	9		5
R Königsdörffer FWD	1	10	2	1
F Vieira MID	1	5	3	4
R Glatzel FWD	1	3
Y Poulsen FWD	1	3
M Muheim DEF		3	3	3
N Remberg MID		3	1	1
N Capaldo MID		1	1	2
W Mikelbrencis DEF		4		1
G Gocholeishvili DEF		2	1	1
D Elfadli DEF		1
F. Uri Baldé FWD		2	1	2
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD		1	1	1
G Ramos DEF		1
B Jatta FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
767	34	98
L. Vušković	N Capaldo	L. Vušković

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L. Vušković DEF	767	10	98
D Fernandes GLK	753		2
M Muheim DEF	609	31	76
N Remberg MID	584	33	84
D Elfadli DEF	477	15	36
N Capaldo MID	404	34	76
J Torunarigha DEF	355	17	41
A Lokonga MID	354	18	49
W Omari DEF	234	3	10
F Vieira MID	232	2	20
M Dompé FWD	206	4	28
R Königsdörffer FWD	180	1	42
G Gocholeishvili DEF	167	10	38
W Mikelbrencis DEF	156	8	17
R Philippe FWD	151	15	35
J Meffert MID	81	4	7
Y Poulsen FWD	72	4	26
F. Uri Baldé FWD	62	6	17
A. Souhmahoro DEF	60	1	1
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD	58	8	20
B Jatta FWD	39	4	9
G Ramos DEF	34		5
E Sahiti FWD	31		5
R Glatzel FWD	28		9
I Pherai MID	22	1	4