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Mexico v Ecuador : World Cup match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 1st Jul, 02:00 BST, Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Mexico are in World Cup action on Wednesday morning, as Javier Aguirre Onaindía looks to get one over on Sebastián Beccacece and his Ecuador side at the Estadio Azteca. You'll see stats supporting our top of under 2.5 goals below, but be sure to take a look at the 16 other betting markets we cover too. Each has been designed to give you as full a picture as possible, with World Cup performances and head to heads (H2Hs) included, so that you can make a smart bet. Finally, be sure to get the best odds from leading bookmakers.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Fans may not be thrilled to read this, but we're not predicting a high-scoring affair here. The stats suggest Mexico and Ecuador both are capable of keeping it tight at the back, and the odds point towards a tie with fewer than 2 goals in total as they go head-to-head. We think that's a great shout and, without an obvious outright winners to back, under 2.5 goals feels like the right bet on this match.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Mexico are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 45% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.20.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Mexico 45%	2.20	-
Draw 30%	2.90	-
Ecuador 25%	3.90 3%	-
Mexico 1-0 16%	5.50	-
Draw 0-0 13%	5.50	-
Draw 1-1 13%	6.00	-
Ecuador 1-0 11%	8.50	-
Mexico 2-0 9%	9.00 5%	-
Mexico 2-1 8%	11.00	-
Ecuador 2-1 5%	17.00	-
Ecuador 2-0 5%	19.00	-
Mexico 3-0 4%	21.00	-
Draw 2-2 3%	21.00	-
Mexico 3-1 3%	26.00	-
Ecuador 3-1 1%	41.00	-
Mexico 3-2 1%	41.00	-
Ecuador 3-0 1%	41.00	-
Mexico 4-0 1%	51.00	-
Over 2.5 Goals 33%	3.00	-
Under 2.5 Goals 67%	1.40	-
Home 1st Goal 50%	1.83	-
Away 1st Goal 40%	2.60 4%	-
No 1st Goal 9%	5.50	-
BTTS - Yes 39%	2.25	-
BTTS - No 61%	1.57	-
BTTS - Home Win 14%	6.50	-
BTTS - Draw 17%	4.75	-
BTTS - Away Win 8%	11.00 10%	-
Home/draw 75%	1.25	-
Away/draw 55%	1.67	-
Home/away 70%	1.40	-
Over 1.5 Goals 60%	1.62	-
Under 1.5 Goals 40%	2.30	-
Over 3.5 Goals 14%	6.00 9%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 86%	1.13 1%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 5%	15.00 15%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 95%	1.03 1%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 2%	29.00	-
Under 5.5 Goals 98%	1.01	-
Over 0.5 Goals 87%	1.14	-
Under 0.5 Goals 13%	5.50	-
Home DNB 66%	1.44 4%	-
Away DNB 46%	2.63 5%	-
Mexico win to nil 31%	3.00 8%	-
Ecuador win to nil 17%	5.50	-
Mexico / Mexico 23%	3.60 4%	-
Mexico / Ecuador 2%	41.00	-
Mexico / Draw 5%	15.00	-
Draw / Mexico 16%	5.00	-
Draw / Ecuador 11%	7.50	-
Draw / Draw 22%	3.75 6%	-
Ecuador / Mexico 2%	34.00	-
Ecuador / Ecuador 13%	6.50	-
Ecuador / Draw 5%	15.00	-

Win / draw / win form

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

6 / 20

Clean sheets

14 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Mexico	3 - 0	Czech Rep
H	Mexico	1 - 0	South Korea
H	Mexico	2 - 0	South Africa
H	Mexico	5 - 1	Serbia
H	Mexico	1 - 0	Australia
H	Mexico	2 - 0	Ghana
H	Mexico	1 - 1	Belgium
H	Mexico	0 - 0	Portugal
H	Mexico	4 - 0	Iceland
A	Mexico	1 - 0	Bolivia
A	Mexico	1 - 0	Panama
H	Mexico	1 - 1	Ecuador
H	Mexico	0 - 4	Colombia
H	Mexico	2 - 2	South Korea
H	Mexico	0 - 0	Japan
A	Mexico	2 - 1	USA
H	Mexico	1 - 0	Honduras
H	Mexico	2 - 0	Saudi Arabia
H	Mexico	0 - 0	Costa Rica
A	Mexico	2 - 0	Suriname

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

8 / 20

Clean sheets

12 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Ecuador	2 - 1	Germany
H	Ecuador	0 - 0	Curacao
A	Ecuador	0 - 1	Cote d'Ivoire
H	Ecuador	3 - 0	Guatemala
H	Ecuador	2 - 1	Saudi Arabia
A	Ecuador	1 - 1	Netherlands
A	Ecuador	1 - 1	Morocco
A	Ecuador	1 - 1	Mexico
A	Ecuador	1 - 1	USA
H	Ecuador	1 - 0	Argentina
A	Ecuador	0 - 0	Paraguay
A	Ecuador	0 - 0	Peru
H	Ecuador	0 - 0	Brazil
A	Ecuador	0 - 0	Chile
H	Ecuador	2 - 1	Venezuela
A	Ecuador	1 - 0	Colombia
H	Ecuador	4 - 0	Bolivia
A	Ecuador	0 - 0	Uruguay
H	Ecuador	0 - 0	Paraguay
H	Ecuador	1 - 0	Peru

Goal Statistics

Ecuador's defensive record is to be admired, S. Beccacece's men having conceded 1 or less in 17 consecutive World Cup outings. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.2 for Mexico makes sense in this context.

A truly dismal PG of just 0.8 should cause concerns for Ecuador fans, as should a 7 World Cup matches run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

	Mexico	Ecuador
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.2 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 30% 1 36% 2 22% 3 4+ There is a 66% probability that Mexico will score no more than 1 goal	0 44% 1 36% 2 15% 3 4+ There is a 80% probability of Ecuador scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away games

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

better

MEX

ECU

view stats

Games scored	0		0
Failed to score	0		0
Scored first	0		0
Goals scored	0		0
Avg. goals scored	0		0
Avg. shots per game	0		0
Avg. shots per goal	0		0
Conversion rate for	0		0
Avg. XG for	0		0
KickOff rating		0%

better

MEX

ECU

view stats

Games conceded	0		0
Clean sheets	0		0
Conceded first	0		0
Goals conceded	0		0
Avg. goals conceded	0		0
Avg. shots/game conceded	0		0
Avg. shots/goal conceded	0		0
Conversion rate against	0%		0%
Avg. XG against	0		0
KickOff rating		0%

The line-ups for the World Cup match between Mexico v Ecuador will show here when available.

Mexico World Cup squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
3	2	2	1
J Rangel	J Quiñones	R Hernández	E Álvarez

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
J Rangel GLK	3			-
J Gallardo DEF	3			-
I Reyes DEF	3			-
E Álvarez MID	3			1 -
J Quiñones FWD	3	2		-
R Hernández FWD	3		2	-
J Sánchez DEF	2		1	-
C Montes DEF	2			1
J Vásquez DEF	2			-
L Romo DEF	2	1	1	-
Álvaro Fidalgo MID	2	1		-
O Vargas MID	2			-
B Gutiérrez MID	2			1 -
E Lira MID	2		1	-
G. Mora Zambrano MID	2			-
R Jiménez FWD	2	1		-
S Giménez FWD	2			-
G Ochoa GLK	1			-
M. Chávez García DEF	1	1		-
L Chávez MID	1			-
O Pineda MID	1			-
A Vega FWD	1			-
A. González Alba FWD	1			-
C Huerta FWD	1			-
G Martínez FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
2	4	2	3
J Quiñones	J Quiñones	R Hernández	R Hernández

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
J Quiñones FWD	2	4		1
L Romo DEF	1	1	1	1
Álvaro Fidalgo MID	1	1
R Jiménez FWD	1	3
M. Chávez García DEF	1	1
R Hernández FWD			2	3
J Sánchez DEF		1	1	2
O Vargas MID		1
E Lira MID			1	1
S Giménez FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
135	7	15
J Vásquez	R Hernández	J Quiñones

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Vásquez DEF	135	1	5
E Álvarez MID	129	6	11
R Hernández FWD	115	7	12
C Montes DEF	108	1	7
E Lira MID	94	4	8
I Reyes DEF	92	1	6
J Gallardo DEF	91	2	10
J Rangel GLK	86		1
J Quiñones FWD	83	2	15
J Sánchez DEF	61	2	5
L Romo DEF	60	5	10
Álvaro Fidalgo MID	48	1	4
B Gutiérrez MID	42	1	4
R Jiménez FWD	40	1	9
G. Mora Zambrano MID	38		2
L Chávez MID	28	2	2
M. Chávez García DEF	19	1	5
O Vargas MID	19	2	2
G Martínez FWD	14		2
A Vega FWD	10
G Ochoa GLK	9
S Giménez FWD	7		1
O Pineda MID	3		1
A. González Alba FWD	1
C Huerta FWD	1	1	1

Ecuador World Cup squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
3	1	1	1
H Galíndez	G Plata	P Vite	P Hincapié

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
H Galíndez GLK	3			-
P Hincapié DEF	3			1 -
W Pacho DEF	3			-
A Preciado DEF	3			-
A Franco MID	3			1 -
M Caicedo MID	3			-
P Vite MID	3		1	-
K Rodríguez FWD	3		1	-
J Yeboah FWD	3			-
E Valencia FWD	3			-
G Plata FWD	3	1		1 -
N Angulo FWD	3	1		-
P Estupiñán DEF	2			-
J Ordóñez DEF	2			-
J Caicedo FWD	2			-
J Porozo DEF	1			1 -
F Torres DEF	1			-
J Macías MID	1			1 -
A Minda FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
1	6	1	2
G Plata	E Valencia	P Vite	M Caicedo

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
G Plata FWD	1	5
N Angulo FWD	1	2
P Hincapié DEF				1
W Pacho DEF		1
M Caicedo MID		1		2
P Vite MID		1	1	1
K Rodríguez FWD		1	1	1
J Yeboah FWD		2		2
E Valencia FWD		6

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
235	14	20
M Caicedo	P Vite	P Vite

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
M Caicedo MID	235	8	14
P Vite MID	234	14	20
W Pacho DEF	196	4	12
G Plata FWD	115	8	15
P Hincapié DEF	115	9	19
A Franco MID	115	8	10
J Ordóñez DEF	102	5	10
J Yeboah FWD	86	2	9
H Galíndez GLK	70
P Estupiñán DEF	56	4	5
N Angulo FWD	47	1	12
E Valencia FWD	33	1	12
J Macías MID	33	1	1
K Rodríguez FWD	24	1	7
A Preciado DEF	22		2
A Minda FWD	15		1
J Porozo DEF	12
J Caicedo FWD	4