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Atlético Mineiro v Bahia : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 21st Jul, 23:30 BST, Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte

Tuesday night at the Arena MRV, and it’s a Serie A showdown between Atlético Mineiro and Bahia. Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez and Rogério Mücke Ceni going all-out to ensure the win. Below there are predictions for 17 markets, supporting stats including head-to-heads, and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers. Access it all using the tabs below.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We do not expect to see a a bore-draw or a slim 1-0 win here, and instead we're tipping over 1.5 goals. That means that A Mineiro and Bahia will score a minimum of two between them during 90 mins. This is based on each side's recent form stats, as well as their historic head-to-heads. We give it a probability of 80%. The bookmakers have it at 1.29.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think A Mineiro are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 43% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.20.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
A Mineiro 43%	2.05	2.20
Draw 24%	3.30 2%	3.20
Bahia 32%	3.40	3.50
Draw 1-1 11%	6.50	5.50
A Mineiro 2-1 9%	9.00	8.00
A Mineiro 1-0 8%	8.00 7%	7.00
Bahia 2-1 8%	12.00	10.00
Bahia 1-0 7%	11.00 10%	9.50
A Mineiro 2-0 7%	10.00	9.50
Draw 2-2 6%	13.00 13%	11.00
Draw 0-0 5%	10.00 5%	9.00
A Mineiro 3-1 5%	17.00	15.00
Bahia 2-0 5%	17.00	15.00
A Mineiro 3-0 4%	19.00	15.00
Bahia 3-1 3%	26.00 10%	21.00
A Mineiro 3-2 3%	26.00 10%	21.00
Bahia 3-2 3%	34.00	26.00
Bahia 3-0 2%	41.00	26.00
Over 2.5 Goals 57%	1.95 3%	1.95
Under 2.5 Goals 43%	1.85 3%	1.75
Home 1st Goal 50%	1.73	1.75
Away 1st Goal 47%	2.25 2%	2.30
No 1st Goal 3%	10.00 5%	9.00
BTTS - Yes 59%	1.75 3%	1.75
BTTS - No 41%	2.00 3%	2.00
BTTS - Home Win 23%	4.33 4%	4.33
BTTS - Draw 19%	4.33 4%	4.00
BTTS - Away Win 17%	6.50 7%	6.50
Home/draw 68%	1.30	1.30
Away/draw 57%	1.70	1.67
Home/away 76%	1.33	1.35
Over 1.5 Goals 80%	1.29 3%	1.30
Under 1.5 Goals 20%	3.75 10%	3.30
Over 3.5 Goals 34%	3.40 3%	3.30
Under 3.5 Goals 66%	1.33 2%	1.30
Over 4.5 Goals 18%	6.00 14%	6.50
Under 4.5 Goals 82%	1.13 3%	1.10
Over 5.5 Goals 8%	13.00 13%	13.00
Under 5.5 Goals 92%	1.04 1%	1.02
Over 0.5 Goals 95%	1.06	1.06
Under 0.5 Goals 5%	10.00 5%	9.00
Home DNB 60%	1.50	1.50
Away DNB 49%	2.50	2.40
A Mineiro win to nil 21%	3.75 7%	-
Bahia win to nil 15%	6.00	-
A Mineiro / A Mineiro 25%	3.40	3.30
A Mineiro / Bahia 3%	29.00 15%	29.00
A Mineiro / Draw 7%	13.00	12.00
Draw / A Mineiro 15%	5.50	5.50
Draw / Bahia 11%	7.50	8.00
Draw / Draw 16%	5.50 10%	4.80
Bahia / A Mineiro 4%	23.00 12%	23.00
Bahia / Bahia 15%	5.50	5.50
Bahia / Draw 6%	15.00	12.00

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
A Mineiro	3 - 1	Mirassol
A Mineiro	1 - 1	Botafogo
A Mineiro	0 - 4	Flamengo
A Mineiro	2 - 1	Athletico PR
A Mineiro	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
A Mineiro	1 - 0	Internacional
A Mineiro	3 - 3	Remo
A Mineiro	2 - 2	Palmeiras
A Mineiro	5 - 0	Vasco d Gama
A Mineiro	0 - 3	Palmeiras
A Mineiro	1 - 1	Flamengo
A Mineiro	3 - 3	Fortaleza
A Mineiro	3 - 0	Bahia
A Mineiro	1 - 0	Ceara
A Mineiro	1 - 1	Cruzeiro
A Mineiro	3 - 1	S. Recife
A Mineiro	0 - 0	Juventude
A Mineiro	1 - 0	Mirassol
A Mineiro	1 - 1	Santos
A Mineiro	1 - 3	Gremio

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	A Mineiro	1 - 0	Vasco d Gama
A	A Mineiro	0 - 1	Corinthians
H	A Mineiro	3 - 1	Mirassol
H	A Mineiro	1 - 1	Botafogo
A	A Mineiro	3 - 1	Cruzeiro
H	A Mineiro	0 - 4	Flamengo
A	A Mineiro	0 - 2	Cortiba
A	A Mineiro	0 - 1	Santos
H	A Mineiro	2 - 1	Athletico PR
A	A Mineiro	4 - 0	Chapecoense
A	A Mineiro	0 - 1	Fluminense
H	A Mineiro	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
A	A Mineiro	0 - 2	Vitoria
H	A Mineiro	1 - 0	Internacional
A	A Mineiro	1 - 2	Gremio
H	A Mineiro	3 - 3	Remo
A	A Mineiro	0 - 1	Bragantino
H	A Mineiro	2 - 2	Palmeiras
H	A Mineiro	5 - 0	Vasco d Gama
H	A Mineiro	0 - 3	Palmeiras

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Cortiba	3 - 2	Bahia
Sao Paulo	2 - 2	Bahia
Flamengo	2 - 0	Bahia
Mirassol	1 - 2	Bahia
Remo	4 - 1	Bahia
Internacional	0 - 1	Bahia
Vasco d Gama	0 - 1	Bahia
Corinthians	1 - 2	Bahia
Fluminense	2 - 0	Bahia
Juventude	1 - 1	Bahia
Internacional	2 - 2	Bahia
A Mineiro	3 - 0	Bahia
Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Bahia
Vitoria	2 - 1	Bahia
Botafogo	2 - 1	Bahia
Vasco d Gama	3 - 1	Bahia
Ceara	1 - 1	Bahia
Mirassol	5 - 1	Bahia
Corinthians	1 - 2	Bahia
S. Recife	0 - 0	Bahia

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Bahia	2 - 1	Botafogo
A	Bahia	2 - 3	Cortiba
H	Bahia	1 - 1	Gremio
H	Bahia	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
A	Bahia	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Bahia	2 - 2	Santos
A	Bahia	0 - 2	Flamengo
A	Bahia	2 - 1	Mirassol
H	Bahia	1 - 2	Palmeiras
H	Bahia	3 - 0	Athletico PR
A	Bahia	1 - 4	Remo
H	Bahia	2 - 0	Bragantino
A	Bahia	1 - 0	Internacional
H	Bahia	1 - 1	Vitoria
A	Bahia	1 - 0	Vasco d Gama
H	Bahia	1 - 1	Fluminense
A	Bahia	2 - 1	Corinthians
A	Bahia	0 - 2	Fluminense
H	Bahia	2 - 0	S. Recife
A	Bahia	1 - 1	Juventude

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

A Mineiro have not lost to Bahia in 5 consecutive home league meetings

A Mineiro

Bahia

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 7

3 / 7

Clean sheets

4 / 7

1 / 7

AMN

BAH

FIXTURE HISTORY AT A Mineiro
A Mineiro	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
A Mineiro	1 - 0
A Mineiro	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	0 - 1	Bahia
A Mineiro	1 - 0

Bahia

A Mineiro

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 7

6 / 7

Clean sheets

1 / 7

0 / 7

AMN

BAH

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Bahia
Bahia	2 - 1
Bahia	3 - 0
Bahia	4 - 1
	2 - 3	A Mineiro
Bahia	3 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw

Goal Statistics

Atlético Mineiro's fans will be hoping for goals on Tuesday night, not least because Bahia have conceded in each of their last 9 Serie A outings. A PG of 1.6 for E. Domínguez's side suggests that run should continue.

Atlético Mineiro's defensive record is to be admired, E. Domínguez's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive Serie A games. An average PG rating of 1.4 for Bahia makes sense in this context.

	A Mineiro 9th	Bahia 6th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.6 goals	1.4 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 20% 1 32% 2 26% 3 14% 4+ 8% There is a 80% probability that A Mineiro will score 1 or more goals	0 26% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 61% probability that Bahia will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+10 A Mineiro’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-4 Bahia’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.7 average goals scored	1.1 average goals scored
	1.3 conceded	1.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season

AMN

BAH

17%

better

view stats

Games scored	11		16
Failed to score	7		1
Scored first	9		7
Goals scored	22		25
Avg. goals scored	1.2		1.5
Avg. shots per game	10		11
Avg. shots per goal	8		8
Conversion rate for	13		13
Avg. XG for	1.3		1.5
KickOff rating		+17%

better

AMN

BAH

view stats

Games conceded	14		13
Clean sheets	4		4
Conceded first	9		10
Goals conceded	23		23
Avg. goals conceded	1.3		1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded	11		11
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		8
Conversion rate against	12%		12%
Avg. XG against	1.3		1.4
KickOff rating		0%

A Mineiro v Bahia Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

A Mineiro Serie A squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
18	3	2	5
Everson	V Hugo	R Lodi	R Tressoldi

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Everson GLK	18		1	-
R Lodi DEF	17		2	2 1
T Cuello FWD	17	2	1	1 -
R Tressoldi DEF	15	1		5 -
A Franco MID	15		1	3 -
V Hugo MID	15	3	1	-
Bernard FWD	15	1	2	-
Reinier MID	14	1	1	1 -
M Cassierra FWD	14	2	1	1 -
Dudu FWD	12	2		-
Natanael DEF	11		2	1
J Alonso DEF	10			2 -
G Scarpa MID	10	1		-
T Pérez MID	10			2 -
Maycon MID	10	2		-
A Minda FWD	9	2		-
M. Cissé MID	8	1		-
Lyanco DEF	7			3 1
A Preciado DEF	7			1 -
I Román DEF	6	1		3 -
V Hugo DEF	6	1		1 -
I Gomes MID	5			1 -
C. Soares FWD	5			-
K. Resende DEF	4			-
Alexsander MID	4			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
3	10	2	7
V Hugo	T Cuello	R Lodi	R Lodi

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
V Hugo MID	3	9	1	6
T Cuello FWD	2	10	1	6
M Cassierra FWD	2	5	1	1
Dudu FWD	2	7
Maycon MID	2	3		2
A Minda FWD	2	5		1
R Tressoldi DEF	1	2
Bernard FWD	1	2	2	3
Reinier MID	1	9	1	2
G Scarpa MID	1	3		1
M. Cissé MID	1	2
I Román DEF	1	1
V Hugo DEF	1	1
Everson GLK			1	2
R Lodi DEF		7	2	7
A Franco MID		2	1	1
Natanael DEF		2	2
J Alonso DEF		1
T Pérez MID		2
C. Soares FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
692	25	89
R Lodi	R Lodi	R Lodi

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
R Lodi DEF	692	25	89
R Tressoldi DEF	656	22	71
Everson GLK	630		12
J Alonso DEF	509	15	40
A Franco MID	477	22	40
V Hugo MID	456	13	69
T Cuello FWD	408	19	73
Maycon MID	376	11	21
Natanael DEF	357	17	54
T Pérez MID	319	12	21
Reinier MID	268	6	29
Bernard FWD	252	9	28
Lyanco DEF	250	6	24
V Hugo DEF	194	6	20
G Scarpa MID	161	4	18
I Román DEF	139	9	22
I Gomes MID	129	2	7
Dudu FWD	125	2	15
M Cassierra FWD	124	4	30
A Preciado DEF	118	8	27
M. Cissé MID	95	3	12
A Minda FWD	91	3	19
K. Resende DEF	65	3	7
Alexsander MID	36	4	11
C. Soares FWD	10	2	6

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
16	7	4	6
E Pulga	L Juba	S Suay	N Acevedo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
E Pulga FWD	17		1	2 -
Ademir FWD	17		1	2 -
C Olivera FWD	16	1	1	1 -
W José FWD	16	3	1	1 -
S Mingo DEF	15			3 -
L Juba DEF	15	7	1	2 -
J Lucas MID	15	2	2	2 -
N Acevedo MID	15			6 -
Erick MID	14	2		4 -
Everaldo FWD	14	4		2 -
S Suay MID	13		4	1 -
M Araújo FWD	12			1 1
D Duarte DEF	11	2		2 -
C Alexandre MID	11			1 -
M Sanabria FWD	11	2	1	1 -
R Nestor MID	10			2 -
L Vieira GLK	9			-
Ronaldo GLK	8			1 -
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD	4			1
R. Gómez DEF	3			1 -
Kanu DEF	3			2 -
Iago DEF	3			-
M Victor DEF	1			-
J Costa DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
7	14	4	3
L Juba	C Olivera	S Suay	W José

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
L Juba DEF	7	12	1	1
Everaldo FWD	4	7
W José FWD	3	8	1	3
J Lucas MID	2	5	2	3
Erick MID	2	5
D Duarte DEF	2	6
M Sanabria FWD	2	4	1	1
C Olivera FWD	1	14	1	2
E Pulga FWD		6	1	1
Ademir FWD		6	1	1
S Mingo DEF		4		1
N Acevedo MID		7
S Suay MID		4	4	1
M Araújo FWD		1
R Nestor MID		1		2
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD		1
Iago DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
936	41	93
N Acevedo	N Acevedo	N Acevedo

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
N Acevedo MID	936	41	93
S Mingo DEF	750	11	47
L Juba DEF	676	17	42
S Suay MID	566	21	62
D Duarte DEF	561	15	61
J Lucas MID	406	25	52
C Alexandre MID	390	10	25
C Olivera FWD	343	13	68
Erick MID	330	18	50
E Pulga FWD	271	19	78
L Vieira GLK	223		3
Ronaldo GLK	212		4
R Nestor MID	203	10	25
W José FWD	196	5	34
Ademir FWD	145	9	47
Kanu DEF	143	2	7
M Araújo FWD	125	13	26
R. Gómez DEF	112	4	18
Everaldo FWD	77	11	42
Iago DEF	70	2	4
M Sanabria FWD	66	2	19
J Costa DEF	36	5	8
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD	13	2	12
M Victor DEF	1