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Chapecoense v Bahia : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 16th Aug, 15:00 BST, Arena Condá, Chapecó

We’ve Serie A action to look forward to on Sunday afternoon, as Rafael dos Santos Lacerda and his Chapecoense side host Rogério Mücke Ceni’s Bahia at the Arena Condá. All stats, including each side's 20 game form and head to head (H2H) history, will update as you click through each of the 17 major markets via the tabs below. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers and, of course, our algorithmic predictions will too.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We're ruling out a bore-draw or a slim 1-0 win here, and instead are predicting over 1.5 goals. That means that Chapecoense and Bahia will score at least 2 between them during the standard 90 mins. It's a prediction based on each side's recent form stats, as well as historical records when they go head-to-head. We give it a probability of 81%. The bookmakers have it at 1.29.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 48% chance of Bahia coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Chapecoense 29%	12/5	-
Draw 24%	12/5	-
Bahia 48%	1/1	-
Draw 1-1 11%	11/2	-
Bahia 2-1 9%	8/1	-
Bahia 1-0 8%	7/1	-
Bahia 2-0 7%	9/1	-
Chapecoense 2-1 7%	11/1	-
Chapecoense 1-0 6%	10/1	-
Draw 2-2 6%	12/1	-
Bahia 3-1 5%	16/1	-
Draw 0-0 5%	10/1	-
Bahia 3-0 4%	18/1	-
Chapecoense 2-0 4%	18/1	-
Bahia 3-2 4%	25/1	-
Chapecoense 3-1 3%	25/1	-
Chapecoense 3-2 3%	33/1	-
Bahia 4-1 2%	33/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 58%	17/20	-
Under 2.5 Goals 42%	19/20	-
Home 1st Goal 46%	5/4	-
Away 1st Goal 52%	8/11	-
No 1st Goal 3%	10/1	-
BTTS - Yes 60%	7/10	-
BTTS - No 40%	21/20	-
BTTS - Home Win 16%	11/2	-
BTTS - Draw 19%	10/3	-
BTTS - Away Win 25%	3/1	-
Home/draw 52%	8/11	-
Away/draw 71%	3/10	-
Home/away 76%	3/10	-
Over 1.5 Goals 81%	2/7	-
Under 1.5 Goals 19%	11/4	-
Over 3.5 Goals 36%	11/5	-
Under 3.5 Goals 64%	4/11	-
Over 4.5 Goals 19%	5/1	-
Under 4.5 Goals 81%	1/8	-
Over 5.5 Goals 9%	12/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 91%	1/25	-
Over 0.5 Goals 95%	1/20	-
Under 0.5 Goals 5%	10/1	-
Home DNB 45%	6/4	-
Away DNB 64%	1/2	-
Chapecoense win to nil 13%	11/2	-
Bahia win to nil 22%	11/4	-
Chapecoense / Chapecoense 15%	9/2	-
Chapecoense / Bahia 4%	22/1	-
Chapecoense / Draw 6%	14/1	-
Draw / Chapecoense 11%	13/2	-
Draw / Bahia 15%	9/2	-
Draw / Draw 15%	9/2	-
Bahia / Chapecoense 3%	28/1	-
Bahia / Bahia 25%	9/4	-
Bahia / Draw 6%	12/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Chapecoense have lost 4 consecutive home league games

Chapecoense have not won in 20 consecutive league games

Bahia have not won in 5 consecutive away league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Chapecoense	0 - 4	Flamengo
Chapecoense	2 - 3	Remo
Chapecoense	1 - 2	Bragantino
Chapecoense	1 - 4	Botafogo
Chapecoense	1 - 1	Vitoria
Chapecoense	0 - 4	A Mineiro
Chapecoense	0 - 0	Corinthians
Chapecoense	1 - 1	Gremio
Chapecoense	3 - 3	Cortiba
Chapecoense	4 - 2	Santos
Chapecoense	1 - 0	Atletico Go
Chapecoense	0 - 1	America
Chapecoense	2 - 0	Operario
Chapecoense	1 - 1	Botafogo
Chapecoense	1 - 0	Novorizontin
Chapecoense	0 - 1	Avai
Chapecoense	2 - 3	Athletico PR
Chapecoense	2 - 2	Vila Nova
Chapecoense	2 - 0	Paysandu
Chapecoense	3 - 2	CRB

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

19 / 20

Clean sheets

1 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Chapecoense	1 - 2	Cortiba
A	Chapecoense	2 - 2	Santos
H	Chapecoense	0 - 4	Flamengo
A	Chapecoense	0 - 2	Bahia
A	Chapecoense	0 - 1	Palmeiras
A	Chapecoense	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
H	Chapecoense	2 - 3	Remo
A	Chapecoense	1 - 1	Mirassol
H	Chapecoense	1 - 2	Bragantino
A	Chapecoense	1 - 2	Fluminense
H	Chapecoense	1 - 4	Botafogo
A	Chapecoense	0 - 2	Athletico PR
H	Chapecoense	1 - 1	Vitoria
H	Chapecoense	0 - 4	A Mineiro
A	Chapecoense	0 - 2	Internacional
H	Chapecoense	0 - 0	Corinthians
H	Chapecoense	1 - 1	Gremio
A	Chapecoense	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Chapecoense	3 - 3	Cortiba
A	Chapecoense	1 - 1	Vasco d Gama

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Fluminense	0 - 0	Bahia
A Mineiro	1 - 1	Bahia
Cortiba	3 - 2	Bahia
Sao Paulo	2 - 2	Bahia
Flamengo	2 - 0	Bahia
Mirassol	1 - 2	Bahia
Remo	4 - 1	Bahia
Internacional	0 - 1	Bahia
Vasco d Gama	0 - 1	Bahia
Corinthians	1 - 2	Bahia
Fluminense	2 - 0	Bahia
Juventude	1 - 1	Bahia
Internacional	2 - 2	Bahia
A Mineiro	3 - 0	Bahia
Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Bahia
Vitoria	2 - 1	Bahia
Botafogo	2 - 1	Bahia
Vasco d Gama	3 - 1	Bahia
Ceara	1 - 1	Bahia
Mirassol	5 - 1	Bahia

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Bahia	0 - 0	Vasco d Gama
A	Bahia	0 - 0	Fluminense
H	Bahia	1 - 1	Corinthians
A	Bahia	1 - 1	A Mineiro
H	Bahia	2 - 0	Chapecoense
H	Bahia	2 - 1	Botafogo
A	Bahia	2 - 3	Cortiba
H	Bahia	1 - 1	Gremio
H	Bahia	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
A	Bahia	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Bahia	2 - 2	Santos
A	Bahia	0 - 2	Flamengo
A	Bahia	2 - 1	Mirassol
H	Bahia	1 - 2	Palmeiras
H	Bahia	3 - 0	Athletico PR
A	Bahia	1 - 4	Remo
H	Bahia	2 - 0	Bragantino
A	Bahia	1 - 0	Internacional
H	Bahia	1 - 1	Vitoria
A	Bahia	1 - 0	Vasco d Gama

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Chapecoense

Bahia

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

2 / 4

3 / 4

Clean sheets

1 / 4

2 / 4

CHP

BAH

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Chapecoense
Chapecoense	3 - 1
	0 - 2	Bahia
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Bahia

Chapecoense

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

4 / 5

2 / 5

Clean sheets

3 / 5

1 / 5

CHP

BAH

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Bahia
Bahia	2 - 0
	0 - 1	Chapecoense
Bahia	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Bahia	1 - 0

Goal Statistics

Bahia's defensive record is very strong, R. Mücke Ceni's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive Serie A games. An average PG rating of 1.3 for Chapecoense makes sense in this context.

Bahia's fans will be hoping for goals on Sunday afternoon, not least because Chapecoense have conceded in each of their last 15 Serie A games. A PG of 1.7 for R. Mücke Ceni's side suggests that run should continue.

	Chapecoense 20th	Bahia 6th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.3 goals	1.7 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 27% 1 35% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 62% probability that Chapecoense will score no more than 1 goal	0 18% 1 31% 2 27% 3 15% 4+ 10% There is a 82% probability that Bahia will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-12 Chapecoense have scored 12% fewer goals at home than predicted	-10 Bahia’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.4 average goals scored	1.0 average goals scored
	1.7 conceded	1.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season

CHP

BAH

33%

better

view stats

Games scored	13		19
Failed to score	8		2
Scored first	4		8
Goals scored	20		29
Avg. goals scored	1		1.3
Avg. shots per game	9		11
Avg. shots per goal	10		8
Conversion rate for	11		12
Avg. XG for	1.1		1.4
KickOff rating		+33%

CHP

BAH

37%

better

view stats

Games conceded	20		15
Clean sheets	1		6
Conceded first	16		12
Goals conceded	43		25
Avg. goals conceded	2		1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded	13		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		9
Conversion rate against	16%		11%
Avg. XG against	1.7		1.3
KickOff rating		+37%

Chapecoense v Bahia Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Chapecoense Serie A squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
19	2	3	6
E Domachowski	Marcinho	B Pacheco	E. Souza da Cruz

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Marcinho FWD	20	2	1	-
E Domachowski DEF	19	1		4 1
Camilo MID	18			4 -
E. Souza da Cruz DEF	17		1	5 1
Y Bolasie FWD	17	1	1	3 -
B Leonardo DEF	15			3 -
I. de Vargas da Rosa FWD	15			1 -
Rafael MID	14	2		2 -
G Augusto MID	14		1	1 -
B Pacheco DEF	13		3	2 -
Enio FWD	13	1		2 -
M Vinicius DEF	10		1	2 -
N Pessoa FWD	10	2	1	1 -
R. Hartmann Ricoldi FWD	10	1		2 -
M Garcez FWD	8			-
A Paixão GLK	7			-
V Becker DEF	7			2 -
J Paulo DEF	6	1		2 -
D. Antunes da Silva MID	6			-
R Santos GLK	4			-
R Thyere DEF	4			-
B Matias MID	4			1 -
K Ramírez FWD	4		1	-
M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes GLK	3			1 -
Vinicius Eduardo DEF	2			1 -
Max MID	2			-
K. Faria Gomes DEF	1			-
R. dos Santos Conceição MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
2	9	3	4
Marcinho	Y Bolasie	B Pacheco	Enio

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Marcinho FWD	2	7	1
Rafael MID	2	4
N Pessoa FWD	2	5	1
E Domachowski DEF	1	3		2
Y Bolasie FWD	1	9	1
Enio FWD	1	5		4
R. Hartmann Ricoldi FWD	1	2
J Paulo DEF	1	1		1
Camilo MID		2		1
E. Souza da Cruz DEF		2	1	1
B Leonardo DEF		1		1
I. de Vargas da Rosa FWD		2		1
G Augusto MID		2	1	2
B Pacheco DEF			3	3
M Vinicius DEF			1	1
M Garcez FWD		1		1
K Ramírez FWD		3	1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
927	41	77
E Domachowski	Camilo	Camilo

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
E Domachowski DEF	927	15	59
Camilo MID	730	41	77
B Leonardo DEF	662	13	58
B Pacheco DEF	360	20	67
G Augusto MID	341	9	44
E. Souza da Cruz DEF	316	14	64
Marcinho FWD	299	16	57
J Paulo DEF	289	4	22
Enio FWD	284	3	43
Rafael MID	266	14	20
V Becker DEF	223	11	31
M Vinicius DEF	204	5	17
Y Bolasie FWD	176	3	52
A Paixão GLK	175		3
I. de Vargas da Rosa FWD	154	6	30
B Matias MID	114	6	9
R Thyere DEF	99	2	10
R Santos GLK	92		1
R. Hartmann Ricoldi FWD	73	4	14
M Garcez FWD	73	5	29
M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes GLK	72		1
K. Faria Gomes DEF	63		1
D. Antunes da Silva MID	56	6	11
N Pessoa FWD	45	5	16
Max MID	39	1	2
K Ramírez FWD	37	1	7
Vinicius Eduardo DEF	18	1	2
R. dos Santos Conceição MID	5	1	1

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
20	7	4	6
E Pulga	L Juba	S Suay	N Acevedo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Ademir FWD	22	1	1	2 -
W José FWD	21	3	1	1 -
E Pulga FWD	21		1	3 -
S Mingo DEF	20			3 -
N Acevedo MID	20			6 -
J Lucas MID	19	2	2	2 -
L Juba DEF	18	7	1	3 -
S Suay MID	17		4	1 -
Erick MID	16	2		4 -
C Olivera FWD	16	1	1	1 -
D Duarte DEF	15	3	1	3 -
R Nestor MID	15	1	2	2 -
Everaldo FWD	15	4		2 -
M Araújo FWD	14			1 1
Ronaldo GLK	13			2 -
M Sanabria FWD	13	2	1	1 -
C Alexandre MID	12			1 -
L Vieira GLK	9			-
R. Gómez DEF	8	1		1 -
J Costa DEF	5			3 -
Iago DEF	4			-
M Victor DEF	4			-
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD	4			1
Kanu DEF	3			2 -
A Véliz FWD	3			-
R. Barbosa Sousa FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
7	14	4	3
L Juba	C Olivera	S Suay	W José

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
L Juba DEF	7	12	1	1
Everaldo FWD	4	7
W José FWD	3	8	1	3
D Duarte DEF	3	7	1	1
J Lucas MID	2	5	2	3
Erick MID	2	5
M Sanabria FWD	2	4	1	1
Ademir FWD	1	9	1	2
C Olivera FWD	1	14	1	2
R Nestor MID	1	5	2	3
R. Gómez DEF	1	1
E Pulga FWD		7	1	1
S Mingo DEF		5		1
N Acevedo MID		8		1
S Suay MID		4	4	1
M Araújo FWD		1
J Costa DEF		1
Iago DEF				2
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD		1
A Véliz FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1266	49	118
N Acevedo	N Acevedo	N Acevedo

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
N Acevedo MID	1266	49	118
S Mingo DEF	992	12	56
D Duarte DEF	844	18	80
L Juba DEF	721	21	46
S Suay MID	621	24	69
J Lucas MID	489	29	59
C Alexandre MID	411	11	26
Erick MID	391	21	62
R Nestor MID	387	17	40
Ronaldo GLK	367		6
R. Gómez DEF	345	18	52
C Olivera FWD	342	13	68
E Pulga FWD	328	20	93
W José FWD	242	5	37
Ademir FWD	227	16	65
L Vieira GLK	223		3
J Costa DEF	143	11	28
Kanu DEF	143	2	7
M Araújo FWD	136	13	27
Everaldo FWD	80	11	44
M Victor DEF	80	2	3
Iago DEF	72	3	5
M Sanabria FWD	67	4	23
A Véliz FWD	19	3	8
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD	13	2	12
R. Barbosa Sousa FWD	3		1