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Estoril v Casa Pia : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota faithful welcome Casa Pia's fans on Saturday night, as Ian Cathro's Estoril face João Jorge Gândara Mendes Pereira's charges in the Liga NOS. We provide predictions based on extensive statistical analysis of each side, across seventeen of the main markets. The data and the odds change with each market, and head-to-head stats are included across them all.

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Estoril's next match is v Nacional at 15:30 on Sunday 15th March
Casa Pia's next match is v Estrela Amadora at 20:15 on Friday 20th March
The last Portuguese Liga NOS meeting between Estoril and Casa Pia was on Saturday 7th March 2026
Portuguese Liga NOS
March 7th 2026
Estoril 0
0 Casa Pia
 
EST
Shots On
1
2
Shots Off
6
5
Corners
4
5
Possession
64%
36%
Fouls
10
11
Yellow/red cards
2/0
3/0
 
EstorilCasa Pia
 
J. Robles Blázquez
R. Sánchez Sendra
F. Reis Ferreira
A. Tsoungui
P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho (G. Faria Costa 83')
F. Bacher
A. Orellana Gómez (M. da Silva Rocha 69')
J. Holsgrove
A. Marqués Méndez
Y. Begraoui
R. Guitane
P. Sequeira Mejías
D. Bandeira
J. Goulart Silva
(P. Silva Rosas 69') A. Conté
A. Geraldes de Barros
R. Brito
(D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario 46') O. Osundina
(K. Prieto Machado 76') G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
(I. Mohamed 76') S. Pérez Cardona
(J. Freitas Silva Marques 86') J. Livolant
C. Dias Moreira

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Liga NOS Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 2.5 goals

In alignment, our prediction and the odds from the bookmakers suggest that this Liga NOS showdown should present fine viewing for neutrals in the ground, with at least 3 goals to scored in the game. As both sides are unconvincing in the WDW market given their recent form, we're going with the statistics and past head-to-head (H2H) records below, both of which point firmly in the direction of over 2.5 goals being the best bet here.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Estoril are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 59% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.73.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Estoril
59%
4/619/4
Draw
21%
27/102/9
Casa Pia
20%
7/210/1
Estoril 2-1
10%
15/2100/1
Draw 1-1
10%
6/133/1
Estoril 2-0
9%
15/233/1
Estoril 1-0
9%
13/219/4
Estoril 3-1
7%
12/1250/1
Estoril 3-0
6%
12/1150/1
Draw 2-2
5%
14/1200/1
Casa Pia 2-1
5%
14/1125/1
Casa Pia 1-0
5%
12/19/1
Draw 0-0
4%
10/12/9
Estoril 3-2
4%
22/1150/1
Estoril 4-1
3%
25/1150/1
Estoril 4-0
3%
25/1250/1
Casa Pia 2-0
3%
22/170/1
Casa Pia 3-2
2%
40/1150/1
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
17/2060/1
Under 2.5 Goals
39%
19/201/500
Home 1st Goal
55%
4/717/4
Away 1st Goal
42%
8/517/2
No 1st Goal
3%
10/12/9
BTTS - Yes
58%
4/528/1
BTTS - No
42%
19/201/200
BTTS - Home Win
30%
13/570/1
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/428/1
BTTS - Away Win
11%
8/190/1
Home/draw
80%
2/111/25
Away/draw
41%
11/101/8
Home/away
79%
2/729/10
Over 1.5 Goals
82%
1/418/1
Under 1.5 Goals
18%
11/41/500
Over 3.5 Goals
39%
2/1125/1
Under 3.5 Goals
61%
4/111/1000
Over 4.5 Goals
21%
5/11/50
Under 4.5 Goals
79%
1/81/50
Over 5.5 Goals
10%
12/11/50
Under 5.5 Goals
90%
1/251/50
Over 0.5 Goals
96%
1/2014/5
Under 0.5 Goals
4%
10/11/4
Home DNB
74%
2/72/5
Away DNB
35%
5/29/5
Estoril win to nil
29%
2/1-
Casa Pia win to nil
9%
8/1-
Estoril / Estoril
31%
13/811/1
Estoril / Casa Pia
3%
33/145/1
Estoril / Draw
6%
14/128/1
Draw / Estoril
18%
15/48/5
Draw / Casa Pia
8%
17/216/5
Draw / Draw
14%
5/18/5
Casa Pia / Estoril
4%
20/140/1
Casa Pia / Casa Pia
11%
7/118/1
Casa Pia / Draw
6%
14/128/1
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Win / draw / win Liga NOS table

Estoril have played 24 matches so far this season and lay in 8th place in the Liga NOS league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 15 games against teams below in the table, having won 7, drawn 5 and lost 3 matches. They have kept 2 clean sheets and have failed to score in 2 fixtures. Estoril have outscored their opponents by 46 goals to 26 goals.

Home League Performance

Estoril have played 12 games at home winning 6, drawing 4 and losing 2 games. They have scored 26 goals, kept 1 clean sheet and conceded 17 goals at home.

Casa Pia are in 13th position in the Liga NOS on 23 points having played 24 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

7 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 22 goals and kept 3 clean sheets. They have scored 10 goals in total and failed to score in 6 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

17 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 8 games, drawn 6 and won 3. Casa Pia have conceded 34 goals, scored 18, failed to score in 7 fixtures and have kept 2 clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Estoril
Casa Pia
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Porto2521313966 
Apr 12
l
 
1-0A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-0A
2
S. Lisbon2519515062 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
3-0A
l
 
0-2A
l
 
3-0A
3
Benfica2517803759 
May 17
l
 
3-1A
Apr 4
d
 
2-2A
4
Braga2513752746 
w
 
1-0F
May 3
Apr 23
l
 
4-0A
5
Gil Vicente2511861241 
w
 
3-1A
l
 
2-0A
d
 
1-1A
Apr 26
6
Famalicao251168939 
Apr 26
l
 
4-0A
d
 
1-1A
l
 
2-0A
7
Moreirense2510510-435 
d
 
3-3A
Apr 19
d
 
1-1F
l
 
2-1F
8
Estoril25979434 
-
-
d
 
2-2A
d
 
0-00-0
9
V. Guimaraes259511-932 
w
 
4-2A
l
 
3-2F
d
 
0-00-0
May 10
10
Alverca257711-1528 
w
 
4-1F
May 10
l
 
0-2A
Apr 12
11
Arouca257513-2126 
w
 
4-3A
Apr 4
w
 
3-2A
w
 
0-2F
12
Estrela Amadora2551010-1525 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-5F
l
 
3-5F
Mar 20
13
Casa Pia255911-1824 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
2-2F
-
-
14
Rio Ave255911-2024 
Mar 22
w
 
0-4F
May 17
l
 
3-1A
15
Nacional255713-822 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 15
l
 
0-2A
d
 
0-00-0
16
Santa Clara255713-922 
l
 
0-1A
w
 
2-4F
Apr 19
l
 
1-0A
17
Tondela254714-2019 
d
 
2-2A
d
 
2-2F
May 3
w
 
1-2A
18
AVS251717-3910 
w
 
3-1F
l
 
3-0A
d
 
3-3F
w
 
0-2F
Win / draw / win form
3
Casa Pia have failed to score in 3 consecutive away league games
Estoril 8TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
39
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Estoril3 - 1Gil Vicente
Estoril2 - 2Tondela
Estoril4 - 2V. Guimaraes
Estoril4 - 1Alverca
Estoril1 - 0Braga
Estoril3 - 3Moreirense
Estoril4 - 3Arouca
Estoril1 - 1Nacional
Estoril0 - 1S. Lisbon
Estoril3 - 1AVS
Estoril0 - 1Santa Clara
Estoril1 - 1Estrela Amadora
Estoril4 - 0Estrela Amadora
Estoril1 - 2Benfica
Estoril0 - 2Braga
Estoril1 - 2Porto
Estoril2 - 2Sporting Farense
Estoril2 - 1Rio Ave
Estoril2 - 1Boavista
Estoril1 - 0V. Guimaraes
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
9
D
4
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AEstoril0 - 3S. Lisbon
HEstoril3 - 1Gil Vicente
AEstoril0 - 3AVS
HEstoril2 - 2Tondela
AEstoril4 - 2Santa Clara
HEstoril4 - 2V. Guimaraes
AEstoril5 - 0Estrela Amadora
AEstoril1 - 3Benfica
HEstoril4 - 1Alverca
HEstoril1 - 0Braga
AEstoril0 - 4Famalicao
HEstoril3 - 3Moreirense
AEstoril0 - 1Porto
HEstoril4 - 3Arouca
AEstoril4 - 0Rio Ave
HEstoril1 - 1Nacional
AEstoril2 - 2Casa Pia
HEstoril0 - 1S. Lisbon
AEstoril0 - 2Gil Vicente
HEstoril3 - 1AVS
Casa Pia 13TH
20 league games
Away
3
Overall
Goals: Scored
16
Conceded
34
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
3
Draw
5
Lost
12
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Famalicao2 - 0Casa Pia
Nacional0 - 0Casa Pia
S. Lisbon3 - 0Casa Pia
Rio Ave3 - 1Casa Pia
Tondela1 - 2Casa Pia
Santa Clara1 - 0Casa Pia
Benfica2 - 2Casa Pia
Braga4 - 0Casa Pia
Moreirense2 - 1Casa Pia
Arouca0 - 2Casa Pia
Porto4 - 0Casa Pia
AVS0 - 2Casa Pia
Famalicao2 - 1Casa Pia
Arouca0 - 0Casa Pia
AVS1 - 1Casa Pia
Sporting Farense0 - 0Casa Pia
Nacional3 - 1Casa Pia
V. Guimaraes1 - 0Casa Pia
Moreirense3 - 2Casa Pia
Santa Clara2 - 1Casa Pia
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
36
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
W
4
Draw
8
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HCasa Pia1 - 1Moreirense
ACasa Pia0 - 2Famalicao
HCasa Pia3 - 2Arouca
ACasa Pia0 - 0Nacional
HCasa Pia2 - 1Porto
HCasa Pia3 - 3AVS
ACasa Pia0 - 3S. Lisbon
ACasa Pia1 - 3Rio Ave
HCasa Pia0 - 0V. Guimaraes
ACasa Pia2 - 1Tondela
HCasa Pia1 - 1Gil Vicente
ACasa Pia0 - 1Santa Clara
HCasa Pia0 - 2Alverca
ACasa Pia2 - 2Benfica
HCasa Pia3 - 5Estrela Amadora
ACasa Pia0 - 4Braga
HCasa Pia2 - 2Estoril
ACasa Pia1 - 2Moreirense
HCasa Pia1 - 1Famalicao
ACasa Pia2 - 0Arouca
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Estoril since 2023
Estoril
Casa Pia
Goals: Scored
6
2
Games: Scored
2 / 3
1 / 3
Clean sheets
2 / 3
1 / 3
EST
2
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Estoril
0 - 2Casa Pia
Estoril4 - 0
Estoril2 - 0
League games at Casa Pia since 2023
Casa Pia
Estoril
Goals: Scored
5
7
Games: Scored
3 / 4
3 / 4
Clean sheets
1 / 4
1 / 4
EST
1
D
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Casa Pia
Draw2 - 2Draw
1 - 3Estoril
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Goal Statistics

A PG of 2.0 is decent for Estoril in their clash with Casa Pia, as is their run of scoring 1 goal or more in 47 consecutive Liga NOS games.

Estoril 8th Casa Pia 13th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.0
goals
1.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
13%
1
26%
2
27%
3
18%
4+
15%
There is a 61% probability that Estoril will score 2 or more goals in this match
0
33%
1
37%
2
20%
3
4+
There is a 70% probability that Casa Pia will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+42
Estoril have scored 42% more goals at home than predicted
-24
Casa Pia have scored 24% fewer goals when away than predicted
2.0
average goals scored
0.8
average goals scored
1.4
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga NOS - 2025/2025 season
Estoril
PG (predicted goals)
Casa Pia
2
1.1
Attack rating
27%
better
EST
view stats
Games scored17
14
Failed to score7
10
Scored first10
7
Goals scored46
26
Avg. goals scored1.9
1.1
Avg. shots per game9
6
Avg. shots per goal5
6
Conversion rate for21
17
Avg. XG for1.3
0.9
KickOff rating
+27%
Defence rating
EST
5%
better
view stats
Games conceded21
20
Clean sheets3
4
Conceded first14
15
Goals conceded42
44
Avg. goals conceded1.8
1.8
Avg. shots/game conceded10
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded5
6
Conversion rate against18%
18%
Avg. XG against1.6
1.6
KickOff rating
+5%

Estoril v Casa Pia Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Estoril Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
251767
J RoblesY BegraouiJ HolsgroveR Sánchez
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Robles GLK25
2
-
Ferro DEF201
2
-
F Bacher DEF251
2
-
A Tsoungui DEF15
5
-
P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho MID192
4
-
J Orellana MID141
2
-
J Holsgrove MID2416
6
-
R Sánchez MID1823
7
-
R Guitane FWD2235
2
-
A Marqués FWD194
1
-
Y Begraoui FWD25171
1
-
Subs
M Turk GLK
-
L. Bimai DEF
-
J. Montes Martos DEF
-
G Costa DEF11
1
-
N Lominadze MID142
4
-
Xeka  MID3
-
Pizzi MID174
-
K Edwards FWD2
-
A. Ramos das Neves FWD6
1
-
Casa Pia Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
25575
J LivolantCassianoJ LivolantA Geraldes
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
P Sequeira GLK20
2
1
A Geraldes DEF19
5
-
D. Bandeira DEF8
4
-
J Goulart DEF161
3
-
G Larrazabal MID2434
5
-
R Brito MID1711
3
-
S Pérez MID20
4
-
A Conté MID162
1
-
J Livolant FWD2537
2
-
Cassiano FWD245
5
-
O Osundina FWD132
1
-
Subs
I Mandic GLK
-
J Fonte DEF161
3
-
P. Silva Rosas DEF2
-
J Marques MID5
1
-
I Mohamed MID141
4
-
Claudio FWD61
1
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario FWD16
2
-
K. Prieto Machado FWD8
-
T Morais FWD16
1
-