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Benfica v Sporting Braga : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mon 11th May, 20:15 BST, Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

the Estádio da Luz is the setting on Monday night, as José Mario Felix dos Santos Mourinho's Benfica host Carlos Vicens's Sporting Braga in the Liga NOS. Statistics power the predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and flipping between them shows bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and much more besides. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Click on the tabs below to find out more.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Liga NOS Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

The statistics suggest we don't have an obvious winner in this fixture, but there's plenty of reasons to believe that Benfica and Braga will find the net twice at least between them. That has been the case when they've gone head-to-head in the past, and neither José Mario Felix dos Santos Mourinho or Carlos Vicens has suffered the frustration of many 0-0s of late either. The bookmakers are predicting over 1.5 goals too, with best odds of 1.20 equating to roughly a 81% probability.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Benfica are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 58% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.44.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Benfica 58%	1.39	1.44
Draw 22%	4.50	4.80
Braga 20%	7.00	6.50
Draw 1-1 10%	8.50	8.00
Benfica 1-0 10%	8.00	7.00
Benfica 2-1 10%	8.50	7.50
Benfica 2-0 10%	7.50	6.50
Benfica 3-1 6%	11.00	10.00
Benfica 3-0 6%	10.00	9.00
Braga 1-0 5%	21.00	15.00
Braga 2-1 5%	21.00	15.00
Draw 0-0 5%	13.00	13.00
Draw 2-2 5%	17.00	15.00
Benfica 3-2 3%	23.00	19.00
Benfica 4-1 3%	21.00	15.00
Benfica 4-0 3%	17.00	13.00
Braga 2-0 3%	41.00	26.00
Braga 3-1 2%	51.00	34.00
Over 2.5 Goals 56%	1.65	1.62
Under 2.5 Goals 44%	2.20	2.15
Home 1st Goal 55%	1.40	1.36
Away 1st Goal 42%	3.00	3.30
No 1st Goal 3%	13.00	13.00
BTTS - Yes 55%	1.80	1.85
BTTS - No 45%	1.95	1.85
BTTS - Home Win 27%	3.10	3.10
BTTS - Draw 17%	5.50	5.50
BTTS - Away Win 11%	12.00	10.00
Home/draw 80%	1.10	1.11
Away/draw 42%	2.75	2.70
Home/away 78%	1.18	1.18
Over 1.5 Goals 79%	1.20	1.20
Under 1.5 Goals 21%	4.33	4.20
Over 3.5 Goals 34%	2.63	2.60
Under 3.5 Goals 66%	1.44	1.48
Over 4.5 Goals 17%	4.50	4.50
Under 4.5 Goals 83%	1.18	1.18
Over 5.5 Goals 8%	10.00	8.50
Under 5.5 Goals 92%	1.06	1.06
Over 0.5 Goals 95%	1.03	1.02
Under 0.5 Goals 5%	15.00	13.00
Home DNB 73%	1.14	1.15
Away DNB 36%	5.50	4.80
Benfica win to nil 30%	2.50	-
Braga win to nil 10%	13.00	-
Benfica / Benfica 39%	2.10	2.05
Benfica / Braga 2%	41.00	34.00
Benfica / Draw 5%	15.00	15.00
Draw / Benfica 19%	4.33	4.20
Draw / Braga 6%	15.00	12.00
Draw / Draw 12%	7.00	6.50
Braga / Benfica 4%	19.00	17.00
Braga / Braga 8%	12.00	9.50
Braga / Draw 5%	19.00	15.00

Win / draw / win Liga NOS table

Benfica have played 32 matches so far this season and lay in 3rd place in the Liga NOS league table. Benfica are unbeaten in 28 games against teams below them in the league and kept 13 clean sheets out of 28 games. Benfica are unbeaten at home after 16 games and have kept 7 clean sheets in those matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 28 games against teams below in the table, having won 21, drawn 7 and lost no matches. They have kept 13 clean sheets and have failed to score in 1 fixture. Benfica have outscored their opponents by 69 goals to 60 goals.

Home League Performance

Benfica have played 16 games at home winning 11, drawing 5 and losing 0 games. They have scored 39 goals, kept 7 clean sheets and conceded 11 goals at home.

Braga are in 4th position in the Liga NOS on 57 points having played 32 matches so far this season. Braga are winless in the 5 games they have played against teams above them in the table and have conceded in every game.

Away League Performance

4 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 16 goals and kept 6 clean sheets. They have scored 28 goals in total and failed to score in 1 fixture.

Performance against teams above them in the league

5 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 2 games, drawn 3 and won zero. Braga have conceded 9 goals, scored 7, scored in every game and have kept no clean sheets.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Benfica Braga
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Porto	33	27	4	2	47	85	d 2-2A	d 0-00-0	l 1-2F	l 2-1A
2	S. Lisbon	32	23	7	2	59	76	d 1-1A	w 1-2F	d 2-2A	d 1-1A
3	Benfica	32	22	10	0	47	76	-	-	d 2-2A	May 11
4	Braga	32	16	9	7	28	57	May 11	d 2-2F	-	-
5	Famalicao	32	14	10	8	12	52	w 1-0F	d 2-2F	d 2-2F	w 1-2F
6	Gil Vicente	32	13	11	8	14	50	w 2-1A	w 1-2F	l 0-1A	l 2-1F
7	V. Guimaraes	32	12	6	14	-9	42	w 3-0F	w 0-3F	w 3-2F	d 1-1F
8	Moreirense	32	12	6	14	-10	42	w 4-1F	w 0-4F	w 2-1F	w 0-1F
9	Estoril	33	10	9	14	-1	39	w 3-1F	May 17	d 1-1F	l 1-0A
10	Alverca	33	10	9	14	-16	39	w 2-1F	w 1-2F	w 5-0F	w 0-3F
11	Arouca	32	10	6	16	-21	36	w 5-0F	w 1-2A	w 1-0F	w 0-4F
12	Rio Ave	32	8	11	13	-19	35	d 1-1F	w 0-2F	w 3-0F	d 2-2A
13	Santa Clara	32	8	9	15	-10	33	d 1-1F	w 1-2F	w 1-0F	l 2-1F
14	Nacional	32	8	7	17	-8	31	w 2-0F	w 1-2A	l 0-1A	w 1-2F
15	Estrela Amadora	32	6	10	16	-18	28	w 4-0F	w 0-1F	May 17	d 3-3F
16	Casa Pia	32	5	11	16	-27	26	d 2-2F	d 1-1F	w 4-0F	w 0-1F
17	Tondela	32	5	10	17	-28	25	w 3-0F	d 0-00-0	w 3-0F	w 0-1F
18	AVS	33	3	11	19	-40	20	w 3-0F	w 0-3F	d 2-2F	w 0-4F

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Win / draw / win form

Benfica have won 3 consecutive home league games

Benfica have not lost in 47 consecutive league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

20 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

0 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Benfica	4 - 1	Moreirense
Benfica	2 - 0	Nacional
Benfica	3 - 0	V. Guimaraes
Benfica	2 - 2	Porto
Benfica	3 - 0	AVS
Benfica	2 - 1	Alverca
Benfica	4 - 0	Estrela Amadora
Benfica	3 - 1	Estoril
Benfica	1 - 0	Famalicao
Benfica	1 - 1	S. Lisbon
Benfica	2 - 2	Casa Pia
Benfica	5 - 0	Arouca
Benfica	2 - 1	Gil Vicente
Benfica	1 - 1	Rio Ave
Benfica	1 - 1	Santa Clara
Benfica	3 - 0	Tondela
Benfica	1 - 1	S. Lisbon
Benfica	6 - 0	AVS
Benfica	2 - 2	Arouca
Benfica	3 - 2	Sporting Farense

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Benfica	2 - 2	Famalicao
H	Benfica	4 - 1	Moreirense
A	Benfica	2 - 1	S. Lisbon
H	Benfica	2 - 0	Nacional
A	Benfica	1 - 1	Casa Pia
H	Benfica	3 - 0	V. Guimaraes
A	Benfica	2 - 1	Arouca
H	Benfica	2 - 2	Porto
A	Benfica	2 - 1	Gil Vicente
H	Benfica	3 - 0	AVS
A	Benfica	2 - 1	Santa Clara
H	Benfica	2 - 1	Alverca
A	Benfica	0 - 0	Tondela
H	Benfica	4 - 0	Estrela Amadora
A	Benfica	2 - 0	Rio Ave
H	Benfica	3 - 1	Estoril
A	Benfica	2 - 2	Braga
H	Benfica	1 - 0	Famalicao
A	Benfica	4 - 0	Moreirense
H	Benfica	1 - 1	S. Lisbon

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Santa Clara	2 - 1	Braga
Casa Pia	0 - 1	Braga
Moreirense	0 - 1	Braga
Nacional	1 - 2	Braga
Gil Vicente	2 - 1	Braga
AVS	0 - 4	Braga
Tondela	0 - 1	Braga
Estrela Amadora	3 - 3	Braga
Estoril	1 - 0	Braga
Famalicao	1 - 2	Braga
Arouca	0 - 4	Braga
Porto	2 - 1	Braga
S. Lisbon	1 - 1	Braga
V. Guimaraes	1 - 1	Braga
Rio Ave	2 - 2	Braga
Alverca	0 - 3	Braga
Casa Pia	2 - 1	Braga
Famalicao	1 - 1	Braga
Estoril	0 - 2	Braga
S. Lisbon	1 - 1	Braga

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Braga	1 - 1	Estoril
A	Braga	1 - 2	Santa Clara
A	Braga	1 - 0	Casa Pia
H	Braga	2 - 2	Famalicao
H	Braga	1 - 0	Arouca
A	Braga	1 - 0	Moreirense
H	Braga	1 - 2	Porto
H	Braga	2 - 2	S. Lisbon
A	Braga	2 - 1	Nacional
H	Braga	3 - 2	V. Guimaraes
A	Braga	1 - 2	Gil Vicente
H	Braga	3 - 0	Rio Ave
A	Braga	4 - 0	AVS
H	Braga	5 - 0	Alverca
A	Braga	1 - 0	Tondela
A	Braga	3 - 3	Estrela Amadora
H	Braga	2 - 2	Benfica
A	Braga	0 - 1	Estoril
H	Braga	1 - 0	Santa Clara
A	Braga	2 - 1	Famalicao

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Benfica

Braga

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

9 / 10

Clean sheets

1 / 10

BEF

BRG

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Benfica
	1 - 2	Braga
Benfica	3 - 1
Benfica	1 - 0
Benfica	6 - 1
	2 - 3	Braga
	0 - 1	Braga
Benfica	6 - 2
Benfica	3 - 1
Benfica	3 - 1
Benfica	5 - 1

Braga

Benfica

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 11

10 / 11

Clean sheets

1 / 11

5 / 11

BEF

BRG

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Braga
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	0 - 1	Benfica
Braga	3 - 0
Braga	3 - 2
	0 - 2	Benfica
	0 - 4	Benfica
	1 - 4	Benfica
	1 - 3	Benfica
	0 - 1	Benfica
	0 - 2	Benfica

Goal Statistics

Benfica have been steady in front of goal of late, scoring in 12 consecutive Liga NOS matches. Their PG of 1.9 against Sporting Braga on Monday suggests that run is likely to continue.

	Benfica 3rd	Braga 4th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.9 goals	1.0 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 15% 1 28% 2 27% 3 17% 4+ 13% There is a 85% probability that Benfica will score 1 or more goals	0 36% 1 37% 2 19% 3 4+ There is a 73% probability that Braga will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+11 Benfica have scored 11% more goals at home than predicted	+8 Braga’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	2.6 average goals scored	1.7 average goals scored
	0.8 conceded	1.0 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga NOS - 2025/2025 season

better

BEF

BRG

view stats

Games scored	30		29
Failed to score	2		3
Scored first	25		24
Goals scored	69		60
Avg. goals scored	2.2		1.9
Avg. shots per game	12		9
Avg. shots per goal	6		5
Conversion rate for	18		21
Avg. XG for	2.2		1.7
KickOff rating		+7%

22%

better

BEF

BRG

view stats

Games conceded	18		20
Clean sheets	14		12
Conceded first	5		8
Goals conceded	22		32
Avg. goals conceded	0.7		1
Avg. shots/game conceded	7		7
Avg. shots/goal conceded	10		7
Conversion rate against	10%		14%
Avg. XG against	0.9		1
KickOff rating		+22%

Benfica v Braga Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Benfica Liga NOS squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
30	22	5	9
S Dahl	V Pavlidis	L Barreiro	R Ríos

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
S Dahl DEF	31	1	1	3 -
V Pavlidis FWD	31	22	4	3 -
A Trubin GLK	30			3 -
N Otamendi DEF	29	2		6 2
L Barreiro MID	29	3	5	1 -
G Prestianni FWD	27	3	4	7 1
R Ríos MID	26	4	4	9 -
E Barrenechea MID	26	1		6 -
F Aursnes MID	26	3	4	2 -
A Schjelderup FWD	26	7	5	2 -
A Silva DEF	24		2	4 -
F Ivanovic FWD	24	6	1	1 -
A Dedic DEF	22	1	4	2 2
H Sudakov MID	22	4	2	2 -
T Araújo DEF	21	1	1	3 -
D Lukébakio FWD	15		3	1 -
A Bah DEF	8	1		1 -
Manu MID	8			-
J. Seno Luis Rêgo MID	8	1		-
H Araújo FWD	5			-
S Soares GLK	2			1 -
J. Fins Veloso MID	2			-
Bruma FWD	2			-
R Obrador DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
22	45	5	10
V Pavlidis	V Pavlidis	L Barreiro	A Schjelderup

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
V Pavlidis FWD	22	45	4	6
A Schjelderup FWD	7	14	5	10
F Ivanovic FWD	6	19	1	3
R Ríos MID	4	13	4	6
H Sudakov MID	4	12	2	4
L Barreiro MID	3	9	5	2
G Prestianni FWD	3	13	4	6
F Aursnes MID	3	7	4	5
N Otamendi DEF	2	6
S Dahl DEF	1	7	1	3
E Barrenechea MID	1	5		1
A Dedic DEF	1	2	4	5
T Araújo DEF	1	5	1	2
A Bah DEF	1	2		4
J. Seno Luis Rêgo MID	1	2
A Silva DEF		5	2	2
D Lukébakio FWD		8	3	8
H Araújo FWD		1
R Obrador DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1857	82	214
N Otamendi	S Dahl	N Otamendi

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
N Otamendi DEF	1857	44	214
S Dahl DEF	1496	82	143
E Barrenechea MID	1429	44	108
A Silva DEF	1293	28	104
F Aursnes MID	1186	50	98
R Ríos MID	1118	48	173
T Araújo DEF	1032	30	58
A Dedic DEF	885	33	95
H Sudakov MID	693	14	79
L Barreiro MID	654	31	111
A Trubin GLK	600		13
V Pavlidis FWD	592	18	135
A Schjelderup FWD	583	30	93
G Prestianni FWD	515	21	111
D Lukébakio FWD	258	7	48
F Ivanovic FWD	205	8	63
A Bah DEF	201	12	27
Manu MID	64	2	5
S Soares GLK	37		2
R Obrador DEF	26		3
J. Seno Luis Rêgo MID	21	1	9
Bruma FWD	8	1	3
H Araújo FWD	4		2
J. Fins Veloso MID	4

Braga Liga NOS squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
31	16	5	8
L Hornicek	R Zalazar	R Zalazar	G Lagerbielke

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Hornicek GLK	31			2 -
V Gómez DEF	30	1	3	1 -
P Victor FWD	30	8	4	5 -
J Moutinho MID	29	1	1	5 -
L Lelo DEF	27		4	1 -
R Zalazar MID	27	16	5	6 -
F Navarro FWD	27	6	1	2 -
R Horta FWD	27	14	4	4 1
G Lagerbielke DEF	26	2		7 1
Gorby MID	26			5 -
G Martínez FWD	26		3	3 1
B Arrey-Mbi DEF	23			3 -
G Salles MID	21			4 -
D. Oliveira Rodrigues MID	20	1	2	2 -
F Grillitsch MID	20	1	1	3 -
M Dorgeles MID	19	2		-
P Oliveira DEF	16			3 -
V Carvalho MID	14	2	1	4 -
A Ouazzani FWD	13	2		1 -
S Niakaté DEF	11			2 -
Y. da Rocha MID	4			-
S. Rodrigues Vidigal FWD	4			1 -
T Sá GLK	1			-
J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
16	31	5	8
R Zalazar	R Horta	R Zalazar	L Lelo

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Zalazar MID	16	28	5	8
R Horta FWD	14	31	4	6
P Victor FWD	8	21	4	5
F Navarro FWD	6	12	1	1
G Lagerbielke DEF	2	4
M Dorgeles MID	2	2		2
V Carvalho MID	2	3	1	2
A Ouazzani FWD	2	6
V Gómez DEF	1	9	3	6
J Moutinho MID	1	8	1	4
D. Oliveira Rodrigues MID	1	3	2	2
F Grillitsch MID	1	2	1	1
L Lelo DEF		1	4	8
Gorby MID		3		1
G Martínez FWD		9	3	2
G Salles MID		2		1
P Oliveira DEF		1
S Niakaté DEF		1		2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1999	46	153
J Moutinho	J Moutinho	R Zalazar

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Moutinho MID	1999	46	89
G Lagerbielke DEF	1946	24	143
V Gómez DEF	1444	39	91
Gorby MID	1256	24	53
B Arrey-Mbi DEF	1198	34	64
L Hornicek GLK	1083		15
R Horta FWD	1079	31	60
L Lelo DEF	994	23	72
R Zalazar MID	985	19	153
F Grillitsch MID	984	21	74
V Carvalho MID	830	11	53
P Victor FWD	798	23	103
S Niakaté DEF	731	10	56
M Dorgeles MID	624	10	42
P Oliveira DEF	608	6	30
G Salles MID	532	23	57
G Martínez FWD	530	29	83
D. Oliveira Rodrigues MID	490	19	42
F Navarro FWD	201	9	42
A Ouazzani FWD	120	3	27
T Sá GLK	45		1
Y. da Rocha MID	42	2	2
S. Rodrigues Vidigal FWD	14	1	9
J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves MID	10	1	1