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Bahia v Chapecoense : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 17th Jul, 23:30 BST, Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador

The Serie A is the focus for both Bahia and Chapecoense on Friday night, as managers Rogério Mücke Ceni and Rafael dos Santos Lacerda battle it out at the Arena Fonte Nova. Serie A stats are the most important part of the predictions you'll find below, with head to head (H2H) history included too. It's all on this page, with graphics and odds from leading bookmakers available for every betting markets using the tabs.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

This match should deliver some entertainment, but don't count on a deluge of goals. Under 3.5 goals is our prediction, meaning there will be no more than 3 goals scored during 90 minutes. The best odds are below, followed by market-specific form statistics and head-to-head (H2H) records.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

We think Bahia are the most likely match winners here and, if they’re to get the job done, our predictive algorithm suggests 1-0 is the most likely scoreline. You can place that bet at best odds of 7.50.

There is rarely an outstanding favourite in the correct score market, however. Goals can be scored at any time, and even the most prolific team can have an off day. We’ve listed out the 15 most likely scorelines below, along with odds from the best bookmakers. As you can see, there’s not a lot between them.

Explore the winning strategies and tips from expert correct score tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Bahia
58%
OFF
100%
10/21
8%
Draw
24%
OFF
100%
18/5
18%
Chapecoense
18%
OFF
100%
11/2
13%
Bahia 1-0
14%
11/213/2
30%
Bahia 2-0
12%
6/16/1
8%
Draw 1-1
11%
6/17/1
14%
Bahia 2-1
9%
15/213/2
6%
Draw 0-0
8%
17/214/1
76%
Chapecoense 1-0
7%
14/114/1
25%
Bahia 3-0
6%
10/18/1
5%
Bahia 3-1
5%
12/19/1
17%
Chapecoense 2-1
5%
18/114/1
Draw 2-2
4%
18/112/1
13%
Chapecoense 2-0
3%
28/122/1
10%
Bahia 4-0
3%
22/114/1
12%
Bahia 4-1
2%
25/114/1
29%
Bahia 3-2
2%
28/116/1
26%
Chapecoense 3-1
1%
40/133/1
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
1/14/7
22%
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
4/513/10
31%
Home 1st Goal
56%
1/24/11
8%
Away 1st Goal
38%
15/89/4
2%
No 1st Goal
6%
17/214/1
76%
BTTS - Yes
45%
1/13/4
15%
BTTS - No
55%
3/41/1
18%
BTTS - Home Win
22%
11/415/8
23%
BTTS - Draw
16%
4/117/4
BTTS - Away Win
8%
11/117/2
5%
Home/draw
82%
1/91/9
2%
Away/draw
42%
6/417/10
17%
Home/away
76%
1/42/11
6%
Over 1.5 Goals
71%
3/101/6
12%
Under 1.5 Goals
29%
5/218/5
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
24%
5/27/5
29%
Under 3.5 Goals
76%
3/101/2
16%
Over 4.5 Goals
11%
11/216/5
35%
Under 4.5 Goals
89%
1/91/5
10%
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
14/17/1
38%
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/331/14
5%
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1/161/80
5%
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
17/214/1
76%
Home DNB
75%
1/52/13
4%
Away DNB
35%
10/319/5
14%
Bahia win to nil
36%
6/4-
Chapecoense win to nil
11%
9/1-
Bahia / Bahia
36%
7/511/10
12%
Bahia / Chapecoense
2%
40/133/1
Bahia / Draw
6%
14/112/1
Draw / Bahia
19%
10/310/3
Draw / Chapecoense
7%
10/111/1
9%
Draw / Draw
13%
9/26/1
33%
Chapecoense / Bahia
4%
22/116/1
11%
Chapecoense / Chapecoense
9%
9/18/1
6%
Chapecoense / Draw
5%
16/114/1
Match Predictor Pro
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Correct score form
10
Chapecoense have not scored more than 1 goal for 10 consecutive away league games
Bahia 6TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
-2
or more
2-1
2-1
2-1
3-2
-1
goal
1-1
1-1
1-1
2-2
3-3
x
1-0
1-0
1-0
1-0
2-1
2-1
+1
goal
2-0
2-0
2-0
3-0
4-0
+2
or more
2-0
2-0
4-1
-2
or more
2-1
2-1
3-2
-1
goal
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
2-2
2-2
x
1-0
1-0
2-1
2-1
2-1
+1
goal
2-0
2-0
3-0
+2
or more
Chapecoense 20TH
20 league games
Away
10
Overall
2-0
2-0
2-0
2-0
-2
or more
1-0
1-0
2-1
2-1
-1
goal
0-0
0-0
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
x
1-0
1-0
2-1
+1
goal
3-1
3-1
4-0
+2
or more
2-0
2-0
2-0
4-0
4-1
-2
or more
1-0
1-0
2-1
2-1
2-1
3-2
-1
goal
0-0
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
3-3
x
1-0
+1
goal
4-2
+2
or more
Correct score head to head (H2H)
League games at Bahia since 2018
CHP + 2
or more
1-0
CHP + 1
goal
1-1
x
1-0
BAH + 1
goal
3-0
BAH + 2
or more
League games at Chapecoense since 2018
2-0
CHP + 2
or more
CHP + 1
goal
0-0
1-1
x
BAH + 1
goal
3-1
BAH + 2
or more
Goal Statistics

Bahia have been reliable in attack of late, scoring in 6 consecutive Serie A outings. Their PG of 1.7 against Chapecoense on Friday suggests that run is likely to continue.

Bahia 6th Chapecoense 20th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.7
goals
0.8
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
19%
1
31%
2
26%
3
15%
4+
There is a 81% probability that Bahia will score 1 or more goals
0
44%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4+
There is a 80% probability of Chapecoense scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+1
Bahia’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+7
Chapecoense’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.7
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
1.0
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season
Bahia
PG (predicted goals)
Chapecoense
1.7
0.8
Attack rating
34%
better
BAH
CHP
view stats
Games scored16
11
Failed to score1
6
Scored first7
4
Goals scored25
17
Avg. goals scored1.5
1
Avg. shots per game11
10
Avg. shots per goal8
10
Conversion rate for13
10
Avg. XG for1.5
1.1
KickOff rating
+34%
Defence rating
27%
better
BAH
CHP
view stats
Games conceded13
16
Clean sheets4
1
Conceded first10
12
Goals conceded23
33
Avg. goals conceded1.4
1.9
Avg. shots/game conceded11
14
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
7
Conversion rate against12%
14%
Avg. XG against1.4
1.8
KickOff rating
+27%

Bahia v Chapecoense Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
16746
E PulgaL JubaS SuayN Acevedo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Ademir FWD171
2
-
E Pulga FWD171
2
-
C Olivera FWD1611
1
-
W José FWD1631
1
-
L Juba DEF1571
2
-
S Mingo DEF15
3
-
J Lucas MID1522
2
-
N Acevedo MID15
6
-
Erick MID142
4
-
Everaldo FWD144
2
-
S Suay MID134
1
-
M Araújo FWD12
1
1
D Duarte DEF112
2
-
C Alexandre MID11
1
-
M Sanabria FWD1121
1
-
R Nestor MID10
2
-
L Vieira GLK9
-
Ronaldo  GLK8
1
-
W. Wanderley Santos de Melo FWD4
1
Kanu DEF3
2
-
Iago DEF3
-
R. Gómez DEF3
1
-
J Costa DEF1
-
M Victor DEF1
-
Chapecoense Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
15236
E DomachowskiRafaelB PachecoE. Souza da Cruz
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Marcinho FWD1611
-
E Domachowski DEF151
4
1
I. de Vargas da Rosa FWD15
1
-
E. Souza da Cruz DEF141
5
1
B Leonardo DEF14
3
-
Rafael MID142
2
-
Camilo MID14
3
-
Y Bolasie FWD1411
3
-
G Augusto MID10
1
-
M Vinicius DEF91
2
-
B Pacheco DEF93
1
-
Enio FWD91
2
-
N Pessoa FWD821
1
-
M Garcez FWD8
-
V Becker DEF7
2
-
R. Hartmann Ricoldi FWD71
1
-
A Paixão GLK6
-
J Paulo DEF61
2
-
R Santos GLK4
-
D. Antunes da Silva MID3
-
R Thyere DEF2
-
Vinicius Eduardo DEF2
1
-
K Ramírez FWD2
-
R. dos Santos Conceição MID1
-