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Luxembourg v Estonia : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 13th Nov, 19:45 BST, Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg

Luxembourg and Estonia clash at the Stade de Luxembourg on Friday evening, with both Jeff Strasser and Jürgen Henn seeking a win in the UEFA Nations League. We have odds for 17 different betting markets plus predictions, stats and head to head (H2H) data for the two sides. You can access it all using the tabs below.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals means, quite simply that there will be 3 goals or less scored by Luxembourg and Estonia combined during a standard 90 mins. Latest form stats and historical head-to-head (H2H) performances have led us to our prediction, and our predictive algorithm suggests there's a 76% chance of it being right on the money. The top price available at present on under 3.5 goals is 1.22.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Luxembourg are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 45% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.15.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Luxembourg 45%	2.15 16%	-
Draw 27%	3.20 9%	-
Estonia 27%	3.40 13%	-
Luxembourg 1-0 13%	6.00 8%	-
Draw 1-1 13%	6.50 7%	-
Draw 0-0 10%	7.00 18%	-
Estonia 1-0 10%	8.50 15%	-
Luxembourg 2-0 9%	9.00 13%	-
Luxembourg 2-1 9%	10.00 11%	-
Estonia 2-1 6%	13.00 13%	-
Estonia 2-0 5%	17.00 11%	-
Draw 2-2 4%	19.00	-
Luxembourg 3-0 4%	19.00 27%	-
Luxembourg 3-1 4%	21.00 24%	-
Estonia 3-1 2%	34.00	-
Luxembourg 3-2 2%	34.00	-
Estonia 3-0 2%	41.00	-
Estonia 3-2 1%	41.00	-
Over 2.5 Goals 42%	2.35 9%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 58%	1.57 6%	-
Home 1st Goal 51%	1.80 8%	-
Away 1st Goal 43%	2.40 4%	-
No 1st Goal 6%	7.00 18%	-
BTTS - Yes 47%	2.10 5%	-
BTTS - No 53%	1.67 3%	-
BTTS - Home Win 18%	5.50 16%	-
BTTS - Draw 18%	5.00	-
BTTS - Away Win 11%	8.00 6%	-
Home/draw 73%	1.30 4%	-
Away/draw 55%	1.67 9%	-
Home/away 73%	1.36 5%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 68%	1.44 6%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 32%	2.63 12%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 21%	4.33 8%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 79%	1.20 2%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 9%	8.00 7%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 91%	1.06 1%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	12.00 9%	-
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1.02	-
Over 0.5 Goals 90%	1.08 3%	-
Under 0.5 Goals 10%	7.00 18%	-
Home DNB 64%	1.50 7%	-
Away DNB 47%	2.50 9%	-
Luxembourg win to nil 27%	3.25 18%	-
Estonia win to nil 16%	5.50 8%	-
Luxembourg / Luxembourg 24%	3.40 18%	-
Luxembourg / Estonia 2%	41.00	-
Luxembourg / Draw 5%	17.00	-
Draw / Luxembourg 17%	5.00 5%	-
Draw / Estonia 11%	7.50 12%	-
Draw / Draw 18%	4.50 10%	-
Estonia / Luxembourg 3%	29.00	-
Estonia / Estonia 15%	5.50 15%	-
Estonia / Draw 5%	17.00	-

Win / draw / win form

Luxembourg have lost 3 consecutive games

Luxembourg have failed to score in 3 consecutive games

Estonia have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

8 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

12 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Luxembourg	0 - 2	Bulgaria
Luxembourg	0 - 3	Iceland
Luxembourg	0 - 1	Italy
Luxembourg	3 - 0	Malta
Luxembourg	0 - 2	Germany
Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovakia
Luxembourg	1 - 3	N Ireland
Luxembourg	0 - 0	Ireland
Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovenia
Luxembourg	1 - 0	Sweden
Luxembourg	2 - 2	N Ireland
Luxembourg	0 - 1	Bulgaria
Luxembourg	0 - 1	Belarus
Luxembourg	2 - 1	Kazakhstan
Luxembourg	4 - 1	Bosnia
Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovakia
Luxembourg	3 - 1	Iceland
Luxembourg	2 - 0	Liechtenstein
Luxembourg	0 - 1	Malta
Luxembourg	0 - 6	Portugal

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

8 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

12 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Luxembourg	0 - 2	Bulgaria
A	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Estonia
H	Luxembourg	0 - 3	Iceland
A	Luxembourg	2 - 1	Bulgaria
A	Luxembourg	1 - 0	Albania
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Italy
H	Luxembourg	3 - 0	Malta
A	Luxembourg	2 - 0	Malta
A	Luxembourg	0 - 1	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 2	Germany
A	Luxembourg	0 - 2	Slovakia
A	Luxembourg	0 - 4	Germany
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovakia
H	Luxembourg	1 - 3	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 0	Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovenia
A	Luxembourg	1 - 3	Switzerland
H	Luxembourg	1 - 0	Sweden
H	Luxembourg	2 - 2	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Bulgaria

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bulgaria	0 - 0	Estonia
Iceland	1 - 1	Estonia
Rwanda	2 - 0	Estonia
Kenya	1 - 1	Estonia
Norway	4 - 1	Estonia
Italy	5 - 0	Estonia
Moldova	2 - 3	Estonia
Israel	2 - 1	Estonia
Slovakia	1 - 0	Estonia
Azerbaijan	0 - 0	Estonia
Sweden	3 - 0	Estonia
Switzerland	4 - 0	Estonia
Finland	2 - 1	Estonia
Poland	5 - 1	Estonia
Sweden	2 - 1	Estonia
Sweden	2 - 0	Estonia
Belgium	5 - 0	Estonia
Azerbaijan	1 - 1	Estonia
Austria	2 - 1	Estonia
Hungary	1 - 0	Estonia

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Estonia	0 - 0	Iceland
H	Estonia	1 - 0	Luxembourg
A	Estonia	0 - 0	Bulgaria
A	Estonia	1 - 1	Iceland
A	Estonia	0 - 2	Rwanda
A	Estonia	1 - 1	Kenya
A	Estonia	1 - 4	Norway
H	Estonia	1 - 1	Moldova
H	Estonia	1 - 3	Italy
H	Estonia	0 - 0	Andorra
A	Estonia	0 - 5	Italy
H	Estonia	0 - 1	Norway
H	Estonia	1 - 3	Israel
A	Estonia	3 - 2	Moldova
A	Estonia	1 - 2	Israel
A	Estonia	0 - 1	Slovakia
A	Estonia	0 - 0	Azerbaijan
H	Estonia	0 - 3	Sweden
H	Estonia	3 - 1	Azerbaijan
A	Estonia	0 - 3	Sweden

Goal Statistics

Goals have been difficult to come by for Estonia of late. It has been 13 UEFA Nations League games since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.0 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Friday evening against Luxembourg.

	Luxembourg 4th	Estonia 2nd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.4 goals	1.0 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 26% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 61% probability that Luxembourg will score no more than 1 goal	0 37% 1 37% 2 18% 3 4+ There is a 74% probability of Estonia scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-10 Luxembourg’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-5 Estonia’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	0.9 average goals scored	0.6 average goals scored
	1.4 conceded	2.3 conceded

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

LUX

EST

36%

better

view stats

Games scored	6		10
Failed to score	12		10
Scored first	2		7
Goals scored	8		14
Avg. goals scored	0.4		0.7
Avg. shots per game	7		6
Avg. shots per goal	17		9
Conversion rate for	6		11
Avg. XG for	0.8		0.8
KickOff rating		+36%

LUX

EST

better

view stats

Games conceded	15		15
Clean sheets	3		5
Conceded first	15		9
Goals conceded	28		33
Avg. goals conceded	1.4		1.7
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		12
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		8
Conversion rate against	15%		13%
Avg. XG against	1.5		2.2
KickOff rating		+9%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Luxembourg v Estonia will show here when available.

Luxembourg UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
106	6	6	18
L Jans	V Thill	V Thill	L Jans

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Jans DEF	110	1	2	18 -
A Moris GLK	83		1	3 -
D Carlson DEF	71		2	17 1
F Bohnert DEF	63	1	4	12 -
V Thill MID	59	6	6	13 -
S Thill MID	48	2		-
M Olesen MID	43	2	1	7 -
E Mahmutovic DEF	42			11 -
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	19	1		3 -
T Rupil MID	16			1 -
A. Dardari FWD	16	1		-
V Selimovic DEF	15	1		8 2
E Dzogovic DEF	14			3 -
E Veiga DEF	11			1 -
T Cardoso GLK	8			-
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos MID	7			1 -
J Pereira FWD	7			-
H. Kadamani MID	5		1	-
T Hall DEF	3			2 -
O Natami MID	3			1 -
F. Miguel MID	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	23	6	5
V Thill	V Thill	V Thill	L Jans

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
V Thill MID	6	23	6	4
S Thill MID	2	2		3
M Olesen MID	2	9	1	3
L Jans DEF	1	5	2	5
F Bohnert DEF	1	1	4	4
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	1	6		1
A. Dardari FWD	1	7		1
V Selimovic DEF	1			1
A Moris GLK			1	1
D Carlson DEF		1	2	1
E Mahmutovic DEF		1
T Rupil MID		2		1
H. Kadamani MID		1	1
O Natami MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
2570	78	243
D Carlson	D Carlson	D Carlson

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
D Carlson DEF	2570	78	243
A Moris GLK	2165	2	33
L Jans DEF	1948	72	194
E Mahmutovic DEF	1121	37	85
V Thill MID	1049	56	158
F Bohnert DEF	845	40	106
M Olesen MID	793	17	61
S Thill MID	495	14	33
V Selimovic DEF	480	7	26
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	411	3	15
A. Dardari FWD	207	8	43
E Dzogovic DEF	143	14	29
T Cardoso GLK	138		3
O Natami MID	86	4	12
H. Kadamani MID	78	6	13
T Rupil MID	77	4	8
E Veiga DEF	71	1	4
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos MID	57	3	6
J Pereira FWD	40		2
T Hall DEF	30	2	3
F. Miguel MID	5		1

Estonia UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
79	28	28	26
K Mets	M Poom	M Poom	K Mets

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
K Mets DEF	83		2	26 -
M Käit MID	61	8	3	8 -
K Hein GLK	46			2 -
M Paskotsi DEF	43	2		9 -
M Poom MID	37	28	28	3 -
M Miller MID	35	1	1	12 1
R Peetson DEF	28	3	2	7 -
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF	23		2	3 -
R Shein MID	23	1	1	3 -
K Palumets MID	22	1	3	5 -
M Ainsalu MID	21		2	1 -
V Kreida MID	19			6 -
F Liivak DEF	18	2		2 -
P Kristal MID	16		1	3 -
M Igonen GLK	15			-
E Tougjas DEF	11			-
J Saliste DEF	9			1 -
K. Mustmaa FWD	6			-
K Vallner GLK	5			1 -
M Mannilaan FWD	5			-
M. Paalberg FWD	3			-
T Tammik DEF	2	1		-
M Kolobov DEF	1			-
M. Skvortsov MID	1			-
N Mihhailov MID	1			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
28	13	28	5
M Poom	M Käit	M Poom	M Poom

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Poom MID	28	4	28	5
M Käit MID	8	13	3	4
R Peetson DEF	3	9	2
M Paskotsi DEF	2	6
F Liivak DEF	2	2		1
M Miller MID	1	1	1	1
R Shein MID	1	2	1	3
K Palumets MID	1	5	3	3
T Tammik DEF	1
K Mets DEF		2	2	1
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF		1	2	4
M Ainsalu MID		3	2	3
V Kreida MID		1
P Kristal MID		1	1
K. Mustmaa FWD		2
M Mannilaan FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
2147	72	189
K Mets	M Käit	M Käit

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
K Mets DEF	2147	41	141
K Hein GLK	1362	1	17
M Paskotsi DEF	1272	40	103
M Käit MID	1200	72	189
V Kreida MID	654	40	85
M Poom MID	548	23	44
R Peetson DEF	534	36	92
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF	487	13	45
K Palumets MID	345	19	44
R Shein MID	323	17	47
M Miller MID	322	24	54
M Ainsalu MID	313	11	40
M Igonen GLK	262		2
E Tougjas DEF	198	5	12
J Saliste DEF	160	13	21
P Kristal MID	159	14	41
F Liivak DEF	83	8	28
K Vallner GLK	50
M Mannilaan FWD	32	1	8
K. Mustmaa FWD	24	1	8
N Mihhailov MID	12	2	2
M. Skvortsov MID	5
M. Paalberg FWD	2	1	2