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Wales v Portugal : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 17th Nov, 19:45 BST, Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Craig Bellamy's Wales side enjoy home advantage in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday evening, as Jorge Fernando Pinheiro de Jesus's Portugal arrive at the Cardiff City Stadium. Analysing both teams' last 20 UEFA Nations League matches, as well as baseline data within the competition and the betting market, to generate our match predictions. All the statistics, including head to heads (H2H), are shown below, alongside odds.


In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Wales
30%
--
Draw
25%
--
Portugal
45%
--
Draw 1-1
12%
--
Portugal 1-0
9%
--
Portugal 2-1
9%
--
Wales 1-0
7%
--
Portugal 2-0
7%
--
Wales 2-1
7%
--
Draw 0-0
6%
--
Draw 2-2
6%
--
Portugal 3-1
5%
--
Wales 2-0
5%
--
Portugal 3-0
4%
--
Wales 3-1
3%
--
Portugal 3-2
3%
--
Wales 3-2
2%
--
Wales 3-0
2%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
--
Under 2.5 Goals
46%
--
Home 1st Goal
46%
--
Away 1st Goal
51%
--
No 1st Goal
3%
--
BTTS - Yes
57%
--
BTTS - No
43%
--
BTTS - Home Win
16%
--
BTTS - Draw
19%
--
BTTS - Away Win
22%
--
Home/draw
55%
--
Away/draw
70%
--
Home/away
75%
--
Over 1.5 Goals
77%
--
Under 1.5 Goals
23%
--
Over 3.5 Goals
31%
--
Under 3.5 Goals
69%
--
Over 4.5 Goals
16%
--
Under 4.5 Goals
84%
--
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
--
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
--
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
--
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
--
Home DNB
48%
--
Away DNB
62%
--
Wales win to nil
15%
--
Portugal win to nil
23%
--
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Win / draw / win form
Wales 3RD
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
39
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
10
Draw
7
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Wales0 - 1Denmark
Wales2 - 1Norway
Wales1 - 1Ghana
Wales1 - 1N Ireland
Wales1 - 1Bosnia
Wales7 - 1Macedonia
Wales2 - 4Belgium
Wales3 - 0Liechtenstein
Wales3 - 1Kazakhstan
Wales4 - 1Iceland
Wales1 - 0Montenegro
Wales0 - 0Turkey
Wales0 - 0Poland
Wales4 - 1Finland
Wales1 - 1Turkey
Wales2 - 1Croatia
Wales4 - 0Gibraltar
Wales0 - 0South Korea
Wales2 - 4Armenia
Wales1 - 0Latvia
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
8
Draw
5
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HWales0 - 1Denmark
HWales2 - 1Norway
AWales0 - 2Denmark
AWales0 - 1Portugal
AWales1 - 2Romania
HWales1 - 1Ghana
HWales1 - 1N Ireland
HWales1 - 1Bosnia
HWales7 - 1Macedonia
AWales1 - 0Liechtenstein
HWales2 - 4Belgium
AWales0 - 3England
AWales1 - 0Kazakhstan
AWales3 - 4Belgium
HWales3 - 0Liechtenstein
AWales1 - 1Macedonia
HWales3 - 1Kazakhstan
HWales4 - 1Iceland
AWales0 - 0Turkey
HWales1 - 0Montenegro
Portugal 1ST
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
15
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
12
D
4
L
4
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Denmark2 - 4Portugal
Norway1 - 2Portugal
Colombia0 - 0Portugal
USA0 - 2Portugal
Mexico0 - 0Portugal
Ireland2 - 0Portugal
Hungary2 - 3Portugal
Armenia0 - 5Portugal
Germany1 - 2Portugal
Denmark1 - 0Portugal
Croatia1 - 1Portugal
Scotland0 - 0Portugal
Poland1 - 3Portugal
Georgia2 - 0Portugal
Turkey0 - 3Portugal
Slovenia2 - 0Portugal
Liechtenstein0 - 2Portugal
Bosnia0 - 5Portugal
Slovakia0 - 1Portugal
Iceland0 - 1Portugal
Goals: Scored
45
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
13
Draw
5
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HPortugal2 - 1Norway
APortugal4 - 2Denmark
APortugal2 - 1Norway
HPortugal1 - 0Wales
HPortugal0 - 1Spain
HPortugal2 - 1Croatia
APortugal0 - 0Colombia
HPortugal5 - 0Uzbekistan
HPortugal1 - 1Congo DR
HPortugal2 - 1Nigeria
HPortugal2 - 1Chile
APortugal2 - 0USA
APortugal0 - 0Mexico
HPortugal9 - 1Armenia
APortugal0 - 2Ireland
HPortugal2 - 2Hungary
HPortugal1 - 0Ireland
APortugal3 - 2Hungary
APortugal5 - 0Armenia
HPortugal2 - 2Spain
Goal Statistics

Portugal's defensive record is very strong, J. Pinheiro de Jesus's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive UEFA Nations League outings. An average PG rating of 1.3 for Wales makes sense in this context.

Portugal's fans will be hoping for goals on Tuesday evening, not least because Wales have conceded in each of their last 9 UEFA Nations League matches. A PG of 1.6 for J. Pinheiro de Jesus's side suggests that run should continue.

Wales 3rd Portugal 1st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 65% probability that Wales will score no more than 1 goal
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
13%
4+
8%
There is a 79% probability that Portugal will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+38
Wales have scored 38% more goals at home than predicted
-14
Portugal have scored 14% fewer goals when away than predicted
2.0
average goals scored
1.7
average goals scored
1.0
conceded
0.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings past 20 games
Wales
PG (predicted goals)
Portugal
1.3
1.6
Attack rating
WAL
POR
16%
better
view stats
Games scored15
16
Failed to score5
4
Scored first8
11
Goals scored32
45
Avg. goals scored1.6
2.3
Avg. shots per game10
13
Avg. shots per goal6
6
Conversion rate for16
17
Avg. XG for1.5
2.3
KickOff rating
+16%
Defence rating
WAL
POR
21%
better
view stats
Games conceded15
13
Clean sheets5
7
Conceded first11
7
Goals conceded25
18
Avg. goals conceded1.3
0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded9
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
9
Conversion rate against14%
11%
Avg. XG against1.6
1.1
KickOff rating
+21%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Wales v Portugal will show here when available.

Wales UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
96171317
B DaviesH WilsonH WilsonE Ampadu
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
B Davies DEF10235
11
-
H Wilson FWD691713
12
1
D James FWD681112
7
-
E Ampadu MID671
16
1
C Roberts DEF6532
7
-
J Rodon DEF622
5
-
N Williams DEF6155
8
1
C Mepham DEF571
14
-
K Moore FWD57153
14
1
D Ward GLK49
2
-
B Johnson FWD4975
7
-
D Brooks  FWD4673
6
-
S Thomas FWD3126
4
-
J Sheehan MID23
3
-
B Cabango DEF19
2
-
M Harris FWD19
-
L Cullen MID1723
1
-
L. Koumas FWD161
1
-
K Darlow GLK15
-
J Dasilva DEF132
-
R Colwill MID101
-
J Colwill MID4
-
K. Andrews MID3
-
Portugal UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
93292814
B SilvaB FernandesB SilvaJ Cancelo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
B Silva MID1151428
10
-
B Fernandes MID972928
12
-
R Dias DEF8431
12
-
J Cancelo DEF77149
14
-
R Neves MID7216
8
-
J Félix FWD61156
6
-
D Costa GLK52
-
R Leão FWD5168
3
1
Vitinha MID4714
3
-
D Dalot DEF4035
3
-
J Palhinha MID4021
9
-
P Neto FWD3336
4
-
G Ramos FWD31145
-
J Neves MID304
2
-
R Veiga DEF221
4
-
F Trincão FWD2231
-
A Silva DEF201
-
T Araújo DEF7
1
-
N Tavares DEF5
1
-
R Silva GLK3
-
M Fernandes MID1
-
F Silva FWD1
1
-
C. Borges FWD1
-
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Croatia v Czech Rep
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France v Turkey
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Mon 16th Nov, 15:00
Faroes v Moldova
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Iceland v Luxembourg
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Estonia v Bulgaria
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Macedonia v Slovenia
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Germany v Netherlands
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Greece v Serbia
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Ukraine v Georgia
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Ireland v Kosovo
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Poland v Sweden
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Tue 17th Nov, 19:45
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