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Norway v Wales : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 14th Nov, 17:00 BST, Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo

We’ve UEFA Nations League action to look forward to on Saturday evening, as Ståle Solbakken and his Norway side host Craig Bellamy’s Wales at the Ullevaal Stadion. We've analysed both teams' last 20 UEFA Nations League matches, as well as trends within the competition and the market, to generate our match predictions. All the stats, including head to heads (H2H), are shown below, alongside odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Best Tip: Norway to win

As the stadium fills and the Norway players prepare themselves for this match, the bookies have predicted a victory for them. The odds and our pre-match stats below suggest the same, as does the historical head-to-head (H2H) record we factor into our predictive algorithms. The hasn't been a successful away day for Wales in the past, and we expect more of the same come Saturday evening. A win / draw / win home win is the way to go.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Norway are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 76% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.25.

	Norway 4th	Wales 3rd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	2.7 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	1 19% 2 25% 3 22% 4 15% 5+ 20% There is a 81% probability that Norway will score 2 or more goals in this match	0 44% 1 36% 2 15% 3 4+ There is a 80% probability of Wales scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+56 Norway have scored 56% more goals at home than predicted	-25 Wales have scored 25% fewer goals when away than predicted
	2.7 average goals scored	1.0 average goals scored
	1.2 conceded	1.5 conceded

Games scored	19		15
Failed to score	1		5
Scored first	14		8
Goals scored	50		32
Avg. goals scored	2.5		1.6
Avg. shots per game	10		10
Avg. shots per goal	4		6
Conversion rate for	25		16
Avg. XG for	2.1		1.5
KickOff rating		+36%

Games conceded	17		15
Clean sheets	3		5
Conceded first	5		11
Goals conceded	26		25
Avg. goals conceded	1.3		1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		7
Conversion rate against	14%		14%
Avg. XG against	1.3		1.6
KickOff rating		0%

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Örjan Nyland GLK	78			2 -
M Ødegaard MID	76	5	27	6 -
S Berge MID	74	1	6	5 -
K Ajer DEF	60	3		9 -
E Haaland FWD	59	65	7	2 -
P Berg MID	52		3	4 -
J Ryerson DEF	50	1	9	4 -
L Østigård DEF	45	2		3 -
K Thorstvedt MID	40	4	4	3 1
M Pedersen DEF	36	1	3	3 -
A Nusa FWD	34	9	12	1 -
J Larsen FWD	32	6	4	1 -
F Aursnes MID	31	1	3	4 -
O Bobb FWD	30	4	3	1 -
D Wolfe DEF	29	1	5	3 -
T Heggem DEF	23			2 1
A Schjelderup FWD	22	2	5	-
T Aasgaard MID	12	5	1	-
E Selvik GLK	9			-
S Langas DEF	4			-
E Botheim FWD	2			-
O Björtuft DEF	1			-

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Berge MID	3913	89	253
M Ødegaard MID	3557	83	280
K Ajer DEF	2928	61	199
L Østigård DEF	2311	30	141
P Berg MID	1686	91	133
J Ryerson DEF	1682	63	158
Örjan Nyland GLK	1305		10
T Heggem DEF	1251	20	53
D Wolfe DEF	1142	28	85
F Aursnes MID	1002	37	66
M Pedersen DEF	826	41	81
O Bobb FWD	690	20	90
E Haaland FWD	681	9	159
K Thorstvedt MID	641	30	101
A Nusa FWD	638	24	176
A Schjelderup FWD	402	26	53
J Larsen FWD	284	14	76
E Selvik GLK	198	1	2
T Aasgaard MID	171	5	17
S Langas DEF	49		1
O Björtuft DEF	17
E Botheim FWD	5		1

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
B Davies DEF	102	3	5	11 -
H Wilson FWD	69	17	13	12 1
D James FWD	68	11	12	7 -
E Ampadu MID	67		1	16 1
C Roberts DEF	65	3	2	7 -
J Rodon DEF	62	2		5 -
N Williams DEF	61	5	5	8 1
C Mepham DEF	57		1	14 -
K Moore FWD	57	15	3	14 1
D Ward GLK	49			2 -
B Johnson FWD	49	7	5	7 -
D Brooks FWD	46	7	3	6 -
S Thomas FWD	31	2	6	4 -
J Sheehan MID	23			3 -
B Cabango DEF	19			2 -
M Harris FWD	19			-
L Cullen MID	17	2	3	1 -
L. Koumas FWD	16	1		1 -
K Darlow GLK	15			-
J Dasilva DEF	13		2	-
R Colwill MID	10	1		-
J Colwill MID	4			-
K. Andrews MID	3			-

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Rodon DEF	3311	55	227
B Davies DEF	3187	72	249
E Ampadu MID	2745	104	238
C Mepham DEF	2163	83	205
N Williams DEF	2056	109	306
C Roberts DEF	1778	48	156
H Wilson FWD	1406	54	208
D Ward GLK	1177		5
D James FWD	1158	54	230
J Sheehan MID	835	13	48
J Dasilva DEF	822	13	35
B Cabango DEF	761	11	46
K Moore FWD	723	18	323
B Johnson FWD	633	20	75
S Thomas FWD	604	16	78
D Brooks FWD	529	10	70
K Darlow GLK	509		3
L Cullen MID	377	12	33
M Harris FWD	107	5	23
L. Koumas FWD	100	6	23
R Colwill MID	76	1	10
K. Andrews MID	47	2	6
J Colwill MID	32		2

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Norway 76%	1.25 2%	-
Draw 15%	6.50 7%	-
Wales 9%	9.50 14%	-
Norway 2-0 11%	7.00	-
Norway 3-0 10%	8.00 7%	-
Norway 2-1 9%	9.00 5%	-
Norway 1-0 8%	9.00	-
Norway 3-1 8%	10.00 9%	-
Draw 1-1 7%	13.00	-
Norway 4-0 6%	12.00 9%	-
Norway 4-1 5%	15.00	-
Draw 2-2 4%	23.00 12%	-
Norway 5-0 3%	21.00 11%	-
Norway 3-2 3%	23.00 12%	-
Draw 0-0 3%	21.00	-
Norway 5-1 3%	26.00	-
Wales 2-1 3%	23.00 21%	-
Wales 1-0 3%	23.00 12%	-
Over 2.5 Goals 67%	1.44	-
Under 2.5 Goals 33%	2.70	-
Home 1st Goal 61%	1.30 4%	-
Away 1st Goal 37%	3.40 6%	-
No 1st Goal 2%	21.00	-
BTTS - Yes 52%	1.83 9%	-
BTTS - No 48%	1.83 6%	-
BTTS - Home Win 35%	2.63 4%	-
BTTS - Draw 11%	8.00 6%	-
BTTS - Away Win 5%	15.00 12%	-
Home/draw 91%	1.07 2%	-
Away/draw 24%	3.75 6%	-
Home/away 85%	1.11 1%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 86%	1.13	-
Under 1.5 Goals 14%	6.00	-
Over 3.5 Goals 46%	2.10	-
Under 3.5 Goals 54%	1.67	-
Over 4.5 Goals 27%	3.50	-
Under 4.5 Goals 73%	1.29	-
Over 5.5 Goals 14%	7.00	-
Under 5.5 Goals 86%	1.10	-
Over 0.5 Goals 97%	1.02	-

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Norway	1 - 2	Portugal
Norway	3 - 2	Denmark
Norway	1 - 1	England
Norway	1 - 4	France
Norway	3 - 2	Senegal
Norway	3 - 1	Sweden
Norway	0 - 0	Switzerland
Norway	4 - 1	Estonia
Norway	1 - 1	New Zealand
Norway	5 - 0	Israel
Norway	11 - 1	Moldova
Norway	1 - 0	Finland
Norway	3 - 0	Italy
Norway	5 - 0	Kazakhstan
Norway	3 - 0	Slovenia
Norway	2 - 1	Austria
Norway	3 - 0	Kosovo
Norway	1 - 1	Slovakia
Norway	1 - 2	Czech Rep
Norway	2 - 0	Faroes

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Norway	1 - 2	Portugal
A	Norway	1 - 2	Wales
H	Norway	1 - 2	Portugal
H	Norway	3 - 2	Denmark
H	Norway	1 - 1	England
A	Norway	2 - 1	Brazil
A	Norway	2 - 1	Cote d'Ivoire
H	Norway	1 - 4	France
H	Norway	3 - 2	Senegal
A	Norway	4 - 1	Iraq
A	Norway	1 - 1	Morocco
H	Norway	3 - 1	Sweden
H	Norway	0 - 0	Switzerland
A	Norway	1 - 2	Netherlands
A	Norway	4 - 1	Italy
H	Norway	4 - 1	Estonia
H	Norway	1 - 1	New Zealand
H	Norway	5 - 0	Israel
H	Norway	11 - 1	Moldova
H	Norway	1 - 0	Finland

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Denmark	2 - 0	Wales
Portugal	1 - 0	Wales
Romania	2 - 1	Wales
Liechtenstein	0 - 1	Wales
England	3 - 0	Wales
Kazakhstan	0 - 1	Wales
Belgium	4 - 3	Wales
Macedonia	1 - 1	Wales
Turkey	0 - 0	Wales
Iceland	2 - 2	Wales
Montenegro	1 - 2	Wales
Slovakia	4 - 0	Wales
Gibraltar	0 - 0	Wales
Armenia	1 - 1	Wales
Latvia	0 - 2	Wales
Turkey	2 - 0	Wales
Croatia	1 - 1	Wales
USA	1 - 1	Wales
Belgium	2 - 1	Wales
Netherlands	3 - 2	Wales

Norway v Wales : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

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