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Bulgaria v Luxembourg : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 26th Sep, 17:00 BST, Stadion Hristo Botev,

The UEFA Nations League is the focus for both Bulgaria and Luxembourg on Saturday evening, as managers Aleksandar Dimitrov and Jeff Strasser face one another at the Stadion Hristo Botev. Stats drive the predictions below for seventeen markets, and switching between them will display bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and unique league tables. Odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to explore.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We don't believe there is a clear favourite to claim victory here, but what is clear is that the odds are pointing towards it'll have 3 goals or less. Our statistical analysis is inline with them too. Bulgaria and Luxembourg have served up plenty of under 3.5 goal games lately, and key performance statistics point towards more of the same. We're confidently predicting under 3.5 goals on Saturday evening, and the bookies have it priced at 1.20.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Bulgaria are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 42% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.30.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Bulgaria 41%	2.35 12%	-
Draw 29%	2.90 6%	-
Luxembourg 30%	3.40 9%	-
Draw 1-1 13%	6.00	-
Bulgaria 1-0 13%	6.50	-
Luxembourg 1-0 11%	8.00 16%	-
Draw 0-0 11%	6.00 20%	-
Bulgaria 2-1 8%	11.00 16%	-
Bulgaria 2-0 8%	10.00 11%	-
Luxembourg 2-1 7%	13.00 13%	-
Luxembourg 2-0 5%	15.00 12%	-
Draw 2-2 4%	17.00	-
Bulgaria 3-1 3%	23.00 21%	-
Bulgaria 3-0 3%	21.00 11%	-
Luxembourg 3-1 2%	34.00	-
Luxembourg 3-0 2%	34.00 17%	-
Bulgaria 3-2 2%	41.00 21%	-
Luxembourg 3-2 1%	41.00	-
Over 2.5 Goals 39%	2.63 14%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 61%	1.44 10%	-
Home 1st Goal 49%	1.91 10%	-
Away 1st Goal 44%	2.38 1%	-
No 1st Goal 7%	6.00 20%	-
BTTS - Yes 45%	2.10 5%	-
BTTS - No 55%	1.67 3%	-
BTTS - Home Win 15%	6.00 20%	-
BTTS - Draw 18%	4.50	-
BTTS - Away Win 12%	8.50	-
Home/draw 70%	1.30 4%	-
Away/draw 59%	1.57 6%	-
Home/away 71%	1.40 3%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 66%	1.50 7%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 34%	2.50 9%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 19%	4.50 4%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 81%	1.17 3%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 8%	9.00 13%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 92%	1.04 2%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	15.00 25%	-
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1.01 1%	-
Over 0.5 Goals 89%	1.11 3%	-
Under 0.5 Goals 11%	6.00 14%	-
Home DNB 61%	1.57 9%	-
Away DNB 50%	2.25 14%	-
Bulgaria win to nil 26%	3.50 8%	-
Luxembourg win to nil 19%	5.00 17%	-
Bulgaria / Bulgaria 22%	3.75 15%	-
Bulgaria / Luxembourg 2%	41.00	-
Bulgaria / Draw 6%	15.00	-
Draw / Bulgaria 15%	5.50 10%	-
Draw / Luxembourg 12%	7.00 7%	-
Draw / Draw 19%	4.33 9%	-
Luxembourg / Bulgaria 2%	34.00 17%	-
Luxembourg / Luxembourg 17%	5.00 17%	-
Luxembourg / Draw 5%	17.00	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bulgaria	0 - 1	Montenegro
Bulgaria	2 - 1	Georgia
Bulgaria	1 - 6	Turkey
Bulgaria	0 - 3	Spain
Bulgaria	2 - 2	Cyprus
Bulgaria	1 - 2	Ireland
Bulgaria	1 - 1	Belarus
Bulgaria	0 - 0	Luxembourg
Bulgaria	1 - 0	N Ireland
Bulgaria	2 - 2	Hungary
Bulgaria	0 - 2	Lithuania
Bulgaria	0 - 1	Iran
Bulgaria	1 - 1	Serbia
Bulgaria	0 - 1	Montenegro
Bulgaria	5 - 1	Gibraltar
Bulgaria	2 - 5	Georgia
Bulgaria	1 - 1	Macedonia
Bulgaria	2 - 1	N Ireland
Bulgaria	4 - 1	Georgia
Bulgaria	1 - 0	Lithuania

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Bulgaria	2 - 2	Moldova
H	Bulgaria	0 - 1	Montenegro
A	Bulgaria	1 - 0	Indonesia
A	Bulgaria	10 - 2	Solomon Isl
H	Bulgaria	2 - 1	Georgia
A	Bulgaria	0 - 2	Turkey
A	Bulgaria	0 - 4	Spain
H	Bulgaria	1 - 6	Turkey
A	Bulgaria	0 - 3	Georgia
H	Bulgaria	0 - 3	Spain
A	Bulgaria	0 - 4	Greece
H	Bulgaria	2 - 2	Cyprus
A	Bulgaria	1 - 2	Ireland
H	Bulgaria	1 - 2	Ireland
H	Bulgaria	1 - 1	Belarus
A	Bulgaria	1 - 0	Luxembourg
A	Bulgaria	0 - 5	N Ireland
H	Bulgaria	0 - 0	Luxembourg
H	Bulgaria	1 - 0	N Ireland
A	Bulgaria	0 - 0	Belarus

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Albania	0 - 1	Luxembourg
Malta	0 - 2	Luxembourg
N Ireland	1 - 0	Luxembourg
Slovakia	2 - 0	Luxembourg
Germany	4 - 0	Luxembourg
Switzerland	3 - 1	Luxembourg
Belarus	1 - 1	Luxembourg
Bulgaria	0 - 0	Luxembourg
N Ireland	2 - 0	Luxembourg
Belgium	3 - 0	Luxembourg
France	3 - 0	Luxembourg
Georgia	2 - 0	Luxembourg
Liechtenstein	0 - 1	Luxembourg
Iceland	1 - 1	Luxembourg
Portugal	9 - 0	Luxembourg
Bosnia	0 - 2	Luxembourg
Slovakia	0 - 0	Luxembourg
Turkey	3 - 3	Luxembourg
Faroes	0 - 1	Luxembourg
Lithuania	0 - 2	Luxembourg

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

8 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

12 / 20

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Luxembourg	1 - 0	Albania
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Italy
H	Luxembourg	3 - 0	Malta
A	Luxembourg	2 - 0	Malta
A	Luxembourg	0 - 1	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 2	Germany
A	Luxembourg	0 - 2	Slovakia
A	Luxembourg	0 - 4	Germany
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovakia
H	Luxembourg	1 - 3	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 0	Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovenia
A	Luxembourg	1 - 3	Switzerland
H	Luxembourg	1 - 0	Sweden
H	Luxembourg	2 - 2	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Bulgaria
A	Luxembourg	1 - 1	Belarus
A	Luxembourg	0 - 0	Bulgaria
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Belarus
A	Luxembourg	0 - 2	N Ireland

Goal Statistics

Luxembourg's defensive record is to be admired, J. Strasser's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive UEFA Nations League games. An average PG rating of 1.3 for Bulgaria makes sense in this context.

	Bulgaria 1st	Luxembourg 4th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.2 goals	1.0 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 29% 1 36% 2 22% 3 9% 4+ There is a 65% probability that Bulgaria will score no more than 1 goal	0 36% 1 37% 2 19% 3 4+ There is a 73% probability that Luxembourg will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-19 Bulgaria have scored 19% fewer goals at home than predicted	-40 Luxembourg have scored 40% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.3 average goals scored	0.8 average goals scored
	1.6 conceded	1.7 conceded

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

52%

better

BUL

LUX

view stats

Games scored	11		6
Failed to score	9		12
Scored first	10		2
Goals scored	23		7
Avg. goals scored	1.2		0.4
Avg. shots per game	7		6
Avg. shots per goal	6		18
Conversion rate for	17		6
Avg. XG for	0.5		0.7
KickOff rating		+52%

BUL

LUX

better

view stats

Games conceded	15		14
Clean sheets	5		4
Conceded first	8		14
Goals conceded	40		25
Avg. goals conceded	2		1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	5		7
Conversion rate against	20%		14%
Avg. XG against	1.7		1.5
KickOff rating		+7%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Bulgaria v Luxembourg will show here when available.

Bulgaria UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
26	7	2	5
I Gruev	M Petkov	Z Dimitrov	I Gruev

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
M Minchev FWD	29			1 -
I Gruev MID	27			5 -
M Petkov FWD	25	7	1	5 -
I Turitsov DEF	23		1	3 -
K Dimitrov DEF	23	1		3 -
G Rusev FWD	22	4		3 -
A Kraev MID	20	1		5 -
D Mitov GLK	15			1 -
A Hristov DEF	14	1		3 -
D Velkovski DEF	13			2 -
D Naumov GLK	12			-
H Petrov DEF	12			1 -
V Nikolov FWD	11	3		1 -
Z Dimitrov FWD	11		2	-
Y Stoyanov MID	9			-
L Petkov FWD	9			2 -
B Tsonev MID	6			2 -
S Ivanov FWD	6			-
E. Tsenov DEF	5			1 -
K. Stoyanov Stoyanov MID	4			-
T. Valentinov Ivanov DEF	3			-
S Velkov DEF	2			-
P. Hristov Panayotov MID	1			-
A Bozhev GLK				-
A Chandarov MID				-
K. Balov FWD		1		-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
7	8	2	2
M Petkov	M Petkov	Z Dimitrov	M Petkov

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Petkov FWD	7	8	1	2
G Rusev FWD	4	5
V Nikolov FWD	3
K Dimitrov DEF	1	2
A Kraev MID	1	3		1
A Hristov DEF	1
K. Balov FWD	1
M Minchev FWD		4
I Gruev MID		2
I Turitsov DEF			1
Z Dimitrov FWD		1	2	1
L Petkov FWD		2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1054	30	75
I Gruev	I Gruev	M Petkov

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
I Gruev MID	1054	30	69
K Dimitrov DEF	807	10	50
A Kraev MID	433	15	67
M Petkov FWD	408	24	75
D Mitov GLK	325		4
H Petrov DEF	274	13	25
I Turitsov DEF	267	19	32
A Hristov DEF	229	6	21
D Velkovski DEF	206	6	21
D Naumov GLK	191		4
M Minchev FWD	153	15	51
G Rusev FWD	135	14	45
Y Stoyanov MID	121	7	8
E. Tsenov DEF	85	1	5
L Petkov FWD	84	3	14
Z Dimitrov FWD	58	4	14
V Nikolov FWD	46	2	15
K. Stoyanov Stoyanov MID	36	7	14
B Tsonev MID	24	2	3
S Velkov DEF	18
S Ivanov FWD	9	2	4

Luxembourg UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
104	16	11	19
L Jans	D Sinani	D Sinani	L Barreiro

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Jans DEF	108	1	2	18 -
D Sinani MID	80	16	11	14 1
A Moris GLK	79		1	3 -
L Barreiro MID	71	2	5	19 -
D Carlson DEF	67		2	15 1
F Bohnert DEF	59	1	4	12 -
V Thill MID	55	5	6	12 -
V Thill MID	50	3	2	5 1
S Thill MID	45	2		-
M Martins DEF	41	3	1	7 -
E Mahmutovic DEF	39			9 -
M Olesen MID	39	2	1	6 -
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	15	1		2 -
V Selimovic DEF	13	1		7 2
E Dzogovic DEF	13			2 -
T Rupil MID	12			1 -
A. Dardari FWD	12	1		-
E Veiga DEF	10			1 -
T Cardoso GLK	7			-
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos MID	4			1 -
J Pereira FWD	3			-
F. Miguel MID	1			-
H. Kadamani FWD	1			-
L Fox GLK				-
T Kips GLK				-
O Natami MID				-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
16	36	11	14
D Sinani	D Sinani	D Sinani	D Sinani

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
D Sinani MID	16	36	11	14
V Thill MID	5	19	6	4
V Thill MID	3	14	2	3
M Martins DEF	3	3	1	2
L Barreiro MID	2	11	5	8
S Thill MID	2	1		3
M Olesen MID	2	7	1	3
L Jans DEF	1	5	2	4
F Bohnert DEF	1	1	4	4
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	1	4		1
V Selimovic DEF	1
A. Dardari FWD	1	5		1
A Moris GLK			1	1
D Carlson DEF		1	2	1
T Rupil MID				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
2250	106	304
D Carlson	L Barreiro	L Barreiro

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
D Carlson DEF	2250	76	228
A Moris GLK	2037	2	30
L Jans DEF	1910	71	188
L Barreiro MID	1895	106	304
D Sinani MID	1835	48	180
E Mahmutovic DEF	904	34	76
V Thill MID	889	52	150
V Thill MID	809	38	90
M Olesen MID	693	17	59
M Martins DEF	639	15	57
F Bohnert DEF	604	37	97
S Thill MID	460	14	33
V Selimovic DEF	318	7	23
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	227	2	11
A. Dardari FWD	143	8	34
E Dzogovic DEF	140	14	29
T Cardoso GLK	121		3
T Rupil MID	38	3	7
E Veiga DEF	29	1	4
J Pereira FWD	13		1
F. Miguel MID	5		1
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos MID	4		1
H. Kadamani FWD	4	2	4